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1. A TROPICAL WAVE...ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...
IS LOCATED ABOUT 275 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN GRADUALLY INCREASING
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY
CONDUCIVE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

Frank B on Ch 2 talked about this one a little last night. Said that it will be Gordon. Will be watching this one, but I hope we don't have to deal with a storm this season. I'm ready for fall and winter weather to get going!

THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE SEVERAL HUNDRED
MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS BECOME A LITTLE
BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY. HOWEVER...THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS DISORGANIZED AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS REMAIN ONLY MARGINALLY
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...
20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

Definitely has a nice circulation to it. Thunderstorms are as well building. Could see the 20% rise to 30%-40% before today is over with. Models do pick up on this system and develop it as it continues Westward.

While we are saying goodbye to Ernesto (as far as a US threat), we could soon be talking about Gordon. And possibly rather soon as models have 92L as a storm in about 48 hours. 92L will continue to head West and will near the Caribbean into this weekend. We have plenty of time to watch it as well as another, impressive I might add, wave coming off of Africa in the next day or two that could soon develop as well. Tropics are alive and well

A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER DEFINED. ALTHOUGH SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
CURRENTLY DISORGANIZED...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT
10 TO 15 MPH.

Intensity forecast:


Anywhere from a Tropical Storm to a Cat 1 Hurricane in 48-72 hours. Though, these aren't the "best" models to rely on to say the least.

With wind shear at 40-50kts in the Caribbean, this thing is not going to form anytime soon. While a brief tropical storm isn't out of the question once this thing gets into the Caribbean it will have a lot of trouble. Also a little off topic but looking at some of the longer range models ridging really begins to break down in the mid Atlantic. As a result any "action" would have to come from local activity.

12Z Tracks & Intensity:

92L looks a bit more impressive this afternoon...

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1110 PM EDT WED AUG 8 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM ERNESTO...LOCATED ALONG THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO ABOUT
15 MILES NORTH OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO.

1. THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED
ABOUT 950 MILES WEST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS
CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER DEFINED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ORGANIZING AROUND THE SURFACE CENTER...AND
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_al922012_al072012.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201208091354
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END

12Z Track & Intensity:

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT FRI 09 AUGUST 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 10/1100Z TO 11/1100Z AUGUST 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-083

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA EAST OF ISLANDS
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 70 --
A. 11/1200Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST
C. 11/0915Z
D. 13.8N 56.0W
E. 11/1130Z TO 11/1800Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: BEGIN 6 HOURLY FIXES AT
12/0000Z NEAR 14.0N AND 60W IF SYSTEM IS A THREAT.

srainhoutx wrote:BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_al922012_al072012.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201208091354
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END

It appears they had second thoughts:

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_al072012_al922012.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201208091520
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END

I just heard on the radio that it's already Gordon - is that true?

kellybell4770 wrote:I just heard on the radio that it's already Gordon - is that true?

No Gordon or Tropical Depression at this time. It remains Invest 92L

I hate it when people give wrong/bad information

Even though it is not offical yet, looks like the NHC will make it a Tropical Depression.

Updated 18z Best Track

AL, 07, 2012080918, , BEST, 0, 137N, 429W, 30, 1010, TD

I know I'll be paying very close attention to the GFS track for this one, they are nailing it this year. Whatever upgrades they did on it seem to be working.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072012
500 PM AST THU AUG 09 2012

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 43.8W
ABOUT 1155 MI...1860 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.8 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/H. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON FRIDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072012
2100 UTC THU AUG 09 2012

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 43.8W AT 09/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 43.8W AT 09/2100Z
AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 42.9W

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 13.6N 46.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 13.5N 50.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 13.5N 53.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 13.8N 57.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 14.6N 64.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 20SE 20SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 15.5N 70.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 16.5N 77.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 43.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH