Ernesto Dissipates Over Mexico

[Belmer]

GFDL and HWRF still trend north

That they do. GFDL use to be a REALLY good model a few years ago, however, that hasn't been the case the past couple of years. Although, if Ernesto starts making a quick WNW to NW turn and more toward the Eastern Gulf, it could be on to something.

[Andrew]

The key here is a stronger system will feel the weakness and head more NW. A weaker system will continue west.

[srainhoutx]

12Z HWRF & GFDL:

[Ptarmigan]

Ernesto has some deep warm water in the Caribbean. Could intensify into a major hurricane.

[biggerbyte]

The concern I have right now is the possibility of Ernesto slowing and rapidly strengthening in the SE or SC Gulf, then starting that more northerly path. Srain mentioned that a couple of posts as well. Stalling near Mexico then heading north would not bode very well for the Texas coastline, unless you want to see a Hurricane.

[srainhoutx]

18Z Tracks & Intensity...significant shift N in tracks...

[srainhoutx]

HPC Final Afternoon Update:

...ERNESTO...

NHC FORECASTS A HURRICANE ON DY 5 NEARING THE YUCATAN. ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE IS REASONABLY WELL CLUSTERED...ALLOWING US TO MOVE THE
CENTER OF CIRCULATION SWIFTLY NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO ON DY 6/7. STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST ADVISORIES FROM NHC
CONCERNING ERNESTO.

[Alvin Girl]

srain, now that 91L is on the board - what does this mean for Ernesto? Is it possible that we could have two storms heading in our direction next week?

[srainhoutx]

srain, now that 91L is on the board - what does this mean for Ernesto? Is it possible that we could have two storms heading in our direction next week?

91L is a fly in the ointment in the forecast. As far as what that might mean regarding Ernesto's future track, I suspect that the East Coast trough and weakness expected across the Central Gulf Coast as well as a short wave diving ESE from Canada will be the key players in how everything evolves. Stay tuned!

[JasonFontaine]

How are the models picking up Ernesto - and show nothing of 91L?
Seriously - sorry - I am new and curious how this work itself out? While the models are indeed not perfect - shouldn't they sniff it out? Thanks -

[srainhoutx]

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
500 PM AST FRI AUG 03 2012

THE OVERALL STRUCTURE OF ERNESTO HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH AN INCREASE IN
BANDING FEATURES AND CENTRAL CONVECTION. HOWEVER...WESTERLY SHEAR
IS STILL APPARENT WITH MOST OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
EAST OF THE CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KT PENDING
THE ARRIVAL OF AN AIR FORCE RESERVE PLANE THIS EVENING. WESTERLY
SHEAR IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH
COULD IMPEDE STRENGTHENING. THERE REMAINS A LARGE DIVERGENCE IN
THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE...WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF BASICALLY
DISSIPATING THE SYSTEM AND THE STATISTICAL MODELS SHOWING ERNESTO
BECOMING A HURRICANE IN A COUPLE DAYS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
REMAINS NEAR THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS...AND IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
PREDICTION. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THIS IS AN UNCERTAIN FORECAST.

ERNESTO CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST OR 275/18. THERE IS NO
CHANGE TO THE SYNOPTIC REASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS THE
CYCLONE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A FAST EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS STEERING PATTERN SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE ON
A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER
THAT...THE RIDGE WILL PROBABLY WEAKEN SOMEWHAT...CAUSING ERNESTO TO
SLOW DOWN AND GAIN A LITTLE LATITUDE. HOWEVER...TRACK MODELS HAVE
A LARGE SPREAD IN THE LONG TERM WITH LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE
STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED TO THE
WEST...AND LIES ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. ALTHOUGH
THE NHC FORECAST IS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE NORMALLY RELIABLE GFS
AND ECMWF MODELS...THESE MODELS ARE SHOWING A RATHER WEAK SYSTEM IN
A FEW DAYS...AND ARE NOT THOUGHT TO BE THE MOST REPRESENTATIVE IN
THIS CASE.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/2100Z 13.9N 64.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 14.2N 66.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 14.7N 69.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 05/0600Z 15.3N 73.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 05/1800Z 15.9N 76.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 06/1800Z 17.0N 81.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 07/1800Z 19.0N 84.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 08/1800Z 21.0N 88.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[Belmer]

How are the models picking up Ernesto - and show nothing of 91L?
Seriously - sorry - I am new and curious how this work itself out? While the models are indeed not perfect - shouldn't they sniff it out? Thanks -

We already have a forum for the "disturbance" East of Florida and models are picking up on it. Go here for further updates on that storm:
http://forums.khou.com/viewtopic.php?f= ... 065#p36065

[Andrew]

All signs point to a more organized system currently:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[weatherguy425]

All signs point to a more organized system currently:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

Certainly appears to be the case with a CDO developing/expanding as well as better "ventilation" noted in 3 out of the four quadrants now. What I think is interesting is the growth in overall size that Ernesto has appeared to have. May not end up being quite as small of a system as first appeared I guess.

[srainhoutx]

RECON has arrived and is sampling Ernesto at this time. It certainly looks more impressive than it has during its life cycle to date...

[Andrew]

All signs point to a more organized system currently:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

Certainly appears to be the case with a CDO developing/expanding as well as better "ventilation" noted in 3 out of the four quadrants now. What I think is interesting is the growth in overall size that Ernesto has appeared to have. May not end up being quite as small of a system as first appeared I guess.

The constant bubbling of convection is also a good sign. I have been keeping a good eye on MIMIC and the spin-up is really looking good now. If this thing can slow down a little and convection continues to burst over the LLC then it could really going.


Microwave from srain looks impressive also.

[djjordan]

I don't see too many factors ahead of Ernesto that would prevent this from becoming a Hurricane. I'm with the NHC on this one .... I think they have this nailed so far. It'll be an interesting week next week for sure.

[texoz]

Ernesto is throwing up some big & cold cloud tops. Looking better by the hour.

[Andrew]

I don't see too many factors ahead of Ernesto that would prevent this from becoming a Hurricane. I'm with the NHC on this one .... I think they have this nailed so far. It'll be an interesting week next week for sure.

Dry air and shear are ahead of it in the Caribbean. Tomorrow will be the true deciding day for how much it affects it.

[gocuse22]

Big blow up the past few hours..lets see if it holds.

GFDL 18Z still north
HWRF 18Z kinda the same as the NHC path but turns it even more NW at the end...scary for us if it verified