August:Hot & Dry To End The Month/SE TX

[Katdaddy]

Its that time again for a new thread as August approaches. More heat on the way and perhaps a more active tropics as we get closer to the heart of the 2012 hurricane season.

[ticka1]

July will be history and august will follow quickly then it will be september and we will be looking for our first cold front!!! that is what i am counting down too!!!

[Ptarmigan]

August outlook, and why does a wet July often lead to an August hurricane?
http://blog.chron.com/sciguy/2012/07/au ... hurricane/

I have seen a strong correlation between wet July's and major hurricanes making landfall on Upper Texas Coast.
http://forums.khou.com/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=334

[Kludge]

Sorry..Off-topic...but no weather around so...

"the soon to be National Champion Texas Longhorns"

C'mon Ed... you know you have to add the official disclaimer to those kind of predictions : The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of a wishcasting T-sipper Aluminum and may or may not be backed by sound football team analysis. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including the NCAA. For Official Information please refer to Las Vegas Sportsbook products.

Edit to add: Go Coogs!!!

[Belmer]

Sorry..Off-topic...but no weather around so...

"the soon to be National Champion Texas Longhorns"

C'mon Ed... you know you have to add the official disclaimer to those kind of predictions : The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of a wishcasting T-sipper Aluminum and may or may not be backed by sound football team analysis. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including the NCAA. For Official Information please refer to Las Vegas Sportsbook products.

Edit to add: Go Coogs!!!

Since my wife is a Houston alum, and Austin means 4 plus hours roundtrip (closer to six on gamedays), hence a hotel, and tickets are hard to get, we see far many more Cougar games than Texas games.

Got my tickets to see Houston destroy Texas State, a historic moment, Texas State making their first start as a D-1 Bowl Championship team.

ETA

Texas did win the National Championship the year of Rita (2005, Rose Bowl in 2006). Unbiased, 8 to 10 regular season wins, probably no BCS bowl this year, but the Cotton Bowl, while not likely, is a definite possibility, and the team will be set to return to glory in 2013.

How dare you say Houston will destroy Texas State. No way! You are going down. We got a good team this year. Our football players are ready for this season.

[srainhoutx]

The ridge appears to be in strong control of Texas weather as we begin August. While there looks to be some weakening as we near next weekend, about the only chance for any rainfall would be from SW moving storms beneath that ridge from Louisiana and on further W into W Texas where monsoon season storms may help their drought situation. Temps across N Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas may near the 110F mark as we begin August. In the longer range, there is some indications that a change may be ahead as we shift back to a more easterly flow aloft as yet another trough drops SE into the Tennessee Valley.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Sorry..Off-topic...but no weather around so...

"the soon to be National Champion Texas Longhorns"

C'mon Ed... you know you have to add the official disclaimer to those kind of predictions : The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of a wishcasting T-sipper Aluminum and may or may not be backed by sound football team analysis. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including the NCAA. For Official Information please refer to Las Vegas Sportsbook products.

Edit to add: Go Coogs!!!

HOUSTON IS SEC COUNTRY NOW!

[srainhoutx]

The overnight guidance is suggesting a return to a wet pattern as we head toward the late weekend/early next week timeframe as the ridge that has been anchored across the Red River Valley retreats N and W and another weakness develops over Central/SE Texas/Louisiana. The fly in the ointment is a developing Kelvin Wave forecast to shift E from the EPAC at the same time. Then add to the mix a potential tropical system nearing the Yucatan and we have recipe for yet another heavy rainfall event. While it is too soon to know the finer details, it does appear that the hot and dry weather we are currently experiencing may well become a distant memory as rainfall once again returns and all eyes turn to the tropics. Stay Tuned!

[Portastorm]

August looks to begin on a dull, dry and rather warm note. Nothing unusual, just boring,

Ed, in lieu of your post above and Steve's encouraging forecast post, you're starting to sound a lot more like a Glass Half Empty guy and not the opposite.

[Kludge]

Although I technically live in Southeast Texas, the disparity in the amount of rain I received in July compared to many of the rest of the folks in the region is quite amazing. In Harris County, for example, 7+ inches was common, and some got more than 16". Up here I only scored 3-1/8", and have not seen measureable rain since the 15th. Let's hope Steve and Jeff are correct, and we get back into a wetter pattern as we enter August.

[srainhoutx]

The overnight operational guidance continues to advertise a developing inverted trough over Louisiana/E Texas as we head into early next week. The fly in the ointment continues to be what will become of 99L and if that disturbance tracks W into the Western Basin. The PW’s look to increase to the 2+ range as well and with low convective temps and no capping issues, heavy rainfall where storms develop may become an issue as deep tropical moisture streams inland.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z suite continues to advertise a weakness/inverted trough developing as we head into next week. The worrisome issue is that the latest guidance brings a Tropical Depression or TS Ernesto into the Yucatan near the same time adding to the available deep tropical moisture surging into the Western Gulf.

[srainhoutx]

Hot and dry conditions will continue the next several days before a weakness/inverted trough becomes established over E Texas/Louisiana by early next week. The upper ridge that has been anchored over Oklahoma/N Texas begins to contract and shift W by later in the weekend ending the run of 110+ days that have plagued that region. All eye shift to the Western Caribbean as TD 5 treks west bound nearing the Yucatan next week. The $64,000 question is will that weakness tug TD 5/TS Ernesto N into the Gulf? That remains to be seen. The 06Z GFS does raise an eyebrow suggesting a land falling Hurricane Ernesto along the SW Louisiana/Upper Texas Coast, but there remains a lot of time to monitor that Tropical Troublemaker before any real worries locally. Stay Tuned!

[srainhoutx]

Afternoon Update from Jeff:

New area of disturbed weather has developed off the SE FL coast today as a tropical wave interacts with an upper level trough. While upper levels winds are not overly favorable for development they will become more favorable over the next 24 hours as the system moves toward the NW at 5-10mph.



Ernesto:

No significant changes today with respect to track or forecast intensity. Still possible we will be seeing a hurricane nearing the S/SE Gulf middle of next week.

[srainhoutx]

Another update from Jeff:

Strong high pressure over the area will be moving NW over the weekend allowing the area to come under the influence of troughing over the NE Gulf of Mexico.



The retreating high will allow moisture and weak disturbances to move into the area from the east starting on Sunday. This will help cool afternoon temperatures from the upper 90’s into the low to mid 90’s and bring a 20-30% chance of rainfall into the forecast.



Early next week shows the ridge remaining anchored to our west with a downstream trough developing over the eastern US and a weakness in the ridge over E TX/LA. Moisture associated with the area of tropical weather E of FL this afternoon may get pushed westward toward SE TX toward Tuesday of next week. There is some potential that this system my try and develop into a closed circulation and that would have some bigger impacts to the area if it were to make it this far west. With the main ridge off to our NW, expect a continued chance of daily showers and thunderstorms along the seabreeze.



Extended:

All eyes will be on TS Ernesto and its track into the Gulf of Mexico and what if any impacts it may have on the TX coast. For now any impacts would be beyond next Thursday.

[Rip76]

Now if I could somehow move my lawn to Corpus Christi.

[jasons2k]

Forget Ernesto...today looks pretty good. Surface winds over the Houston area are from the north and colliding/converging with the advancing sea breeze from the south. Me like

[gocuse22]

Everything is just to my south..

[srainhoutx]

TXZ214-238-051730-
GALVESTON TX-CHAMBERS TX-
1129 AM CDT SUN AUG 5 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR GALVESTON BAY AND GALVESTON
COUNTY UNTIL 1230 PM CDT...

AT 1125 AM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED SEVERAL LARGE
WATERSPOUTS IN GALVESTON BAY IN AND AROUND THE KEMAH BOARDWALK AREA.
THIS STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

WITH LITTLE OR NO WARNING...FUNNEL CLOUDS CAN REACH THE GROUND AND
BECOME SHORT LIVED TORNADOES AND WATERSPOUTS CAN MOVE ONSHORE. IF A
FUNNEL CLOUD OR WATERSPOUT IS WITNESSED...PLEASE REPORT IT TO YOUR
LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OR THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LEAGUE CITY...TEXAS CITY...DICKINSON...LA MARQUE...SANTA FE...
BACLIFF...SAN LEON AND KEMAH.

[gocuse22]

Outflow boundary coming up from the Sugar Land area