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Too far west to do much for my area

Had some nice rain in Stafford earlier this morning. Looked like we would get more than we did. Still very cloudy with a nice breeze.

I'm getting a lot of thunder rumbling out here in Porter, but not a lot of precep... At least for now

All the stuff to the south and east is cutting me off, keeping it too stable for us NW of the US 59 corridor. The first line this morning had a small split in it - went right around me. It's still early in the day though...maybe things will look better in a few hours.

Glad to be back home from NTX and enjoy the tropical moisture. Picked up 1.09" today from 3 heavy tropical showers.

Just some sprinkles for me today. All the rain offshore with the clouds kept me from seeing anything. I am encouraged by the forecast discussion for tomorrow and this week. Sometimes the heavier rain can come on days when we get more sun and heating and then bigger storms can form in the afternoon. We'll see...at least this week won't be 100+ and totally parched Typical summer weather is just fine with me.

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Wetting rains affect much of the area this past weekend helping to break the dry and hot pattern that had developed the last week of June. A few locations really were dumped on….NW Harris County and around Matagorda Bay.



Upper ridge is slowly building back across the region from the NE this morning with moisture profiles lowering from the extremely tropical levels on Saturday to more marginal levels today. Radar is quite this morning compared to the last 3 days where numerous showers and thunderstorms were already ongoing by this time offshore and along the coast. Drier air mass lurking offshore will spread inland today as upper level low and deep tropical moisture shift westward toward the Rio Grande plains and the area becomes increasingly under the influence of the building upper level high. Still think there will be just enough moisture today for a few seabreeze storms especially over our SW counties, but 20% should cover this.



Ridge builds in to the north of the area for much of the week, but not overhead like last week. E to ESE deep layer flow on the south side of this feature will support at least a slight chance of thunderstorms each day along the seabreeze with better chances possibly coming on Wednesday and then again toward the end of the week/weekend as weak disturbances/tropical waves pass by to our south briefly enhancing moisture. Without the ridge overhead along the the recent wetting rainfall highs will be in the low to mid 90’s instead of the low 100’s for much of the week.



All in all finally a more typical summer type pattern for the area with near/slightly above normal temperatures and a slight chance of daily afternoon thunderstorms.

The 12Z guidance suggests a rather potent mid/upper low traversing W along the Gulf Coastal States under the Central/East Coast Ridge as we close out the first week of July. The Euro is suggesting a fairly significant increase in moisture with scattered showers/storms developing late Saturday into next Monday if that model is correct.

Edit to add: HPC Medium Range Final Discussion

A TUTT CELL/UPPER LOW FRACTURED OFF THE TAIL OF THE EASTERN TROUGH
IS EXPECTED RETROGRADE UNDER THE BASE OF THE WARM CORE RIDGE AND
SPREAD MODERATE RAINS FROM THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY/SATURDAY WESTWARD
ALONG/INLAND OF THE GULF COAST TOWARDS EASTERN TEXAS BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WHICH WILL ACT TO SUPPRESS HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM THEIR
RECENT EXTREME VALUES. THE NORTHERN PLAINS SHOULD BE WET AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
REGION...SPURRING CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES ALONG THE WAY.

TTU WRF models the sea-breeze to become active beginning tomorrow afternoon and especially Wednesday afternoon. NAM and some other short term models are a little less aggressive but the set-up doesn't look all that bad for scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION
ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS SEEMED TO SHIFT OVER INTO C TX WHERE DEEP MOISTURE AXIS HAS NOW SET UP. MOISTURE SHOULD DECREASE WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES DROPPING TO AROUND 1. 4 INCHES LATER TONIGHT. WILL KEEP 20 POPS FOR ISO ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON BUT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE AREA WILL STAY DRY TONIGHT. MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW 90S LOOK ON TRACK WITH PERHAPS A DEGREE OR TWO INCREASE EACH OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS. OVERALL THINK MAX TEMPS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 90S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN A QUESTION FOR EACH OF THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER HIGH PLAINS OF CO/NM/TX/OK/KS SHOULD EXPAND OVER THE C PLAINS AND MIDWEST BY WED/THUR. RIDGE IS NOT EOXPECTED TO BECOME OVERPOWERING WITH SUBSIDENCE FOR SE TX THROUGH THE WEEK SO COULD SEE TYPICAL SUMMER TIME AFTERNOON STORMS. HIGHER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY COUPLED WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE RIDING UNDER THE RIDGE COULD SUPPORT MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. DECIDED TO SPREAD 30 POPS FOR MUCH OF THE SW AREAS. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO HOLD ON THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK SO WILL MAINTAIN 20 POPS INTO THE WEEKEND. DEEPER MOISTURE BEGINS TO REALLY INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES REACHING 2 - 2. 2 INCHES FROM THE EAST AS POSSIBLY ANOTHER INVERTED TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE AREA. FORECAST WILL KEEP 20 POPS BUT THIS COULD BE ANOTHER DECENT CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. CHANCES LOOK BETTER ON THE COMING SUNDAY ESPECIALLY FOR E TX.

With a few left over boundaries to our N and showers streaming inland off the Gulf, today and tomorrow may offer an isolated chance of some lucky folks getting some rain. The guidance continues to advertise a late weekend Westward moving inverted trough/upper low moving along the Louisiana Gulf Coast as well.

^
Yes sir. Just got power back after a healthy little storm.

Looking ahead to the coming weekend and into next week, the 12Z guidance and ensembles are very suggestive of a rather potent storm system creeping W under the Ridge and rain chance look to increase as PW's near the 2.0 range and very low convective temps become commonplace across the Eastern half of Texas. The GFS and Canadian also suggest a stalling frontal boundary may come into play during the first half of next week providing additional dynamics for producing some widespread rainfall across the region. We will see.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-wv.html

Look at all the potential for rainfall over the coming days..

I hope everyone had a great 4th of July Holiday. Now attention turns E as an inverted trough/upper air disturbances meanders W under the Ridge along the Northern Gulf Coast. PW's increase to the 2.0+ range this coming weekend as a stronger return flow of Gulf moisture moves inland across the Eastern Half of the Lone Star State. Early next week a slow moving frontal boundary is expected to sag S as a deep East Coast trough develops and the heat ridge shifts towards the West Coast. That slowly sagging boundary appears to be a focal point of healthy rainfall totals as well as a trapped trough across Texas as the upper air pattern becomes very weak. Daily scattered showers/storms should increase in coverage on Saturday and it looks like the upcoming work week will remain unsettled and stormy as well. We will see. One thing for certain, we are not in a pattern like last summer...

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Large ridge of high pressure over the central US into the eastern US will move slowly into the western US this weekend and this will keep TX on the southern edge of this high pressure dome. SE TX will continue to lie near the edge of the ridge allowing moisture and disturbances to approach and move into the area from the east over the next week.



Daily pattern of seabreeze showers and thunderstorms will continue today and Friday with 20-30% coverage during the afternoon hours. Storms have been really good rainfall producers where they have developed (I picked up 1.95 yesterday, and totaled 4.83 inches since last Thursday). Weak steering winds will yield slow storm motions and good rainfall under the stronger cores…a good example of a few will get a really good dumping while others only miles away remain dry.



Better chances for widespread rains move into the area this weekend into much of next week as several upper level lows look to move westward along the northern Gulf coast into TX. Each feature will bring with it an increase in moisture and a good chance at showers and thunderstorms as a tropical air mass moves back into the region. GFS is showing fairly high rain chances 50-60% each day starting on Saturday into the middle of next week and this seems reasonable given the forecasted favorable thermo profiles and general lack of ridging and subsidence aloft coupled with tropical moisture influx.



Overall not looking at significantly organized storms, just more coverage along the local seabreeze each afternoon and along outflow boundaries. Tropical air mass will continue to provide good rainfall rates, but lack of cell mergers and long lasting/training storms should negate any flooding threat. Increased rainfall and cloud cover will continue to hold temperatures in the lower 90’s for highs with muggy overnights in the mid 70’s (normal for this time of year). Oppressive humidity will continue to make it “feel” warmer than it actually is….but still a for cry from last summer!

Bring it on, baby! Hoping for ample rainfall here in south central Texas.

The 12Z GFS ensembles are encouraging for Central/SE Texas in the rainfall department...

srainhoutx wrote:The 12Z GFS ensembles are encouraging for Central/SE Texas in the rainfall department...

Ha! I love that big "X" and "2.09" directly on top of my house. I'm praying for it. Only 1/8" here in the past 12 days while lots of you fine folks were scoring multiple inches.

Let's hope this graphic don't jinx us...

Kludge wrote:
Ha! I love that big "X" and "2.09" directly on top of my house. I'm praying for it. Only 1/8" here in the past 12 days while lots of you fine folks were scoring multiple inches.

Let's hope this graphic don't jinx us...

The good news is the Euro is also now suggesting a stalling frontal boundary across Central/SE TX. That model had been a bit more reluctant in dropping the boundary closer to our area, so that may well be a bit more to be optimistic about. We will see.

HPC:

12Z UPDATE... BY DAYS 6-7 WED-THU THE GFS EXTENDS ITS HUDSON BAY
CLOSED LOW FARTHER SW/S THAN OTHER SOLNS BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED
THAN OTHER SOLNS WITH ITS TROF OFF THE WEST COAST. THE GEFS MEAN
IS STILL MOST AMPLIFIED WITH THE NERN TROF EARLY-MID PERIOD. SOME
ECMWF DETAILS WITHIN BOTH MEAN TROFS HAVE CHANGED BUT ARE STILL
WITHIN THE OVERALL GUIDANCE SPREAD. THE FINAL FCST IS LITTLE
CHANGED FROM THE UPDATED PRELIM ISSUANCE.


COLD FRONT BRINGING A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL TEMPS OVER MUCH OF THE
CNTRL-ERN STATES SHOULD STALL ONCE IT REACHES SRN/SERN AREAS NEXT
WEEK... INCREASING THE LIKELIHOOD OF MULTIPLE PERIODS OF RNFL
DURING THE FCST PERIOD. MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR
SOME LOCALIZED TOTALS OF AT LEAST 2-6 INCHES FOR THE 5-DAY PERIOD
WITHIN A GENERAL AREA FROM THE SRN PLAINS THRU THE TN
VLY/SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLC. THIS RNFL WILL BEGIN TO EASE THE
VARYING INTENSITY OF DROUGHT CURRENTLY BEING EXPERIENCED OVER MOST
OF THIS AREA. ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY MAY BE A LITTLE LESS
WIDESPREAD/PERSISTENT... DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER THE CNTRL-SRN
ROCKIES AND GULF COAST/FL MAY ALSO GENERATE LOCALLY HVY RNFL.
CURRENT/RECENT FIRES MAY LEAD TO GREATER THAN AVERAGE POTENTIAL
FOR FLASH FLOODING IN THE VICINITY OF THE ROCKIES. EXPECT LIGHTER
AND MORE SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM THE SOUTHWEST THRU THE GRTBASIN
INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. DAYTIME TEMPS OVER THE WEST SHOULD BE QUITE
WARM WITH NRN AREAS PSBLY SEEING ONE OR MORE DAYS WITH HIGHS 10-15
F ABOVE NORMAL.