July: Hot & Humid To End The Month

[skidog38]

i think something is brewing

[skidog38]

am i seeing things?

[skidog38]

anyone?

[skidog38]

just type, what am i seeing. confirm

[weatherguy425]

Just a small, most likely only mid-level circulation associated with the disturbance located offshore. Earlier it had a well defined circulation, which if over water long enough could have organized into something tropical, but has now lost most organization/convection

[srainhoutx]

We'll need to watch how things develop upstream today across E TX/LA. The SPC has a Slight Risk up and if that continues with the update at 8:00AM, perhaps some stronger storms could drop S into the area later this evening. The HRRR/RAP and to some extent, the WRF/NMM are sniffing development. Those short range meso models are also suggesting a bit more organized convection offshore as a trough still remains along the Louisiana Coastal area. As Gene mentioned in the Atlantic Tropical Discussion yesterday, Edouard formed in a somewhat similar fashion back in 2008 and should the Central US ridge be a bit stronger and a bit of 500mb and 850mb vorticity become established over the open waters of the Northern Gulf, things could become a bit interesting. On that note there is a tropical wave in the NW Caribbean heading generally W, but pressure are rather high and any development, if at all would be slow to occur.

EDIT to add the SPC Update:

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0735 AM CDT SAT JUL 21 2012

VALID 211300Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON FOR PARTS OF
CENTRAL/NRN LA AND E TX...

...SYNOPSIS...
THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS WILL BE DOMINATED BY A LARGE
UPPER HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...WITH THE MAIN BELT OF WLYS
STRETCHING FROM THE PAC NW EWD ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER TO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. A MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME PERSISTS FROM AZ NWD
ACROSS UT/WY...AND A HIGH PW ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE-STRONG
INSTABILITY REMAINS ACROSS THE GULF/SE ATLANTIC STATES...DOWNSTREAM
FROM A WEAK MIDLEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM PA TO THE MID SOUTH. THE
PRIMARY FOCI FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY WILL BE A STALLED
FRONT ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...DAYTIME HEATING AND RESIDUAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE SRN STATES...AND DAYTIME HEATING WITHIN THE
MOISTURE PLUME FROM AZ TO WY.

...E TX TO THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
A WEAK MIDLEVEL TROUGH/CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS IS DRIFTING SEWD ACROSS
THE APPALACHIANS AND SWD OVER THE MID SOUTH...IN CONJUNCTION WITH A
WEAK SURFACE FRONT. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...THE STEEPER LAPSE RATES
AND HOTTER SURFACE TEMPERATURES /RESULTING IN MLCAPE OF 3000-4000 J
PER KG/ ARE EXPECTED ON THE WRN FRINGE OF THE OVERNIGHT SW LA
MCS...AND W/SW OF THE ONGOING STORMS ACROSS NE LA AND CENTRAL MS.
NELY MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT A COUPLE OF SWWD-MOVING STORM
CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A FEW DAMAGING GUSTS AND MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. FARTHER E...LAPSE RATES AND
BUOYANCY WILL BE WEAKER...BUT PULSE-TYPE STORMS WITH ISOLATED STRONG
OUTFLOW WINDS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT FROM
AL TO NC.

[Katdaddy]

Its going to hot up here in NTX. May hit 107F with isolated strong storms that will produced damaging microbursts across the Metroplex. SE TX looks to active this afternoon as strong storms develop and move SW across the area.

[weatherguy425]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1532
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0537 PM CDT SAT JUL 21 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST TEXAS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 212237Z - 220000Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...DAMAGING WIND THREAT INCREASING LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING. A CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER E-CNTRL TX MAY
ORGANIZE INTO A LINE WITH SWD EXTENT THIS EVENING. A SEVERE WW MAY
BE REQUIRED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR SHOULD CONVECTION CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN/ORGANIZE.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY
BOUNDARY IN AXIS OF STRONG INSTABILITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER
E-CNTRL TX. WHILE DEEP LAYER FLOW IS GENERALLY WEAK ACROSS THE
AREA...THERE IS A SMALL POCKET OF 20-30 KT BULK SHEAR DOWNSTREAM OF
CURRENT CONVECTION WHICH MAY HELP STORM ORGANIZATION. WITH PW VALUES
AROUND 1.5-1.75 INCHES AND DCAPE EXCEEDING 1500 J/KG...STRONG
DOWNBURST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. SHOULD A COLD POOL DEVELOP AS STORMS
TREND TOWARD LINEAR ORGANIZATION THE WIND THREAT WOULD CONTINUE FOR
SEVERAL HOURS AS STORMS GENERALLY MOVE S/SWWD. THEREFORE A SEVERE WW
MAY BE NEEDED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR SHOULD CONVECTIVE SIGNAL CONTINUE
AN UPWARD TREND.

..LEITMAN/CARBIN.. 07/21/2012


ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...

[srainhoutx]

Code: Select all

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 501
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
615 PM CDT SAT JUL 21 2012

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 501 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

TXC001-005-027-041-051-073-085-113-139-145-161-183-185-199-203-
213-217-225-231-241-257-289-291-293-309-313-331-339-347-349-351-
365-373-395-397-401-403-405-407-419-423-439-455-457-467-471-473-
477-220700-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0501.120721T2315Z-120722T0700Z/

TX
.    TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ANDERSON             ANGELINA            BELL
BRAZOS               BURLESON            CHEROKEE
COLLIN               DALLAS              ELLIS
FALLS                FREESTONE           GREGG
GRIMES               HARDIN              HARRISON
HENDERSON            HILL                HOUSTON
HUNT                 JASPER              KAUFMAN
LEON                 LIBERTY             LIMESTONE
MADISON              MCLENNAN            MILAM
MONTGOMERY           NACOGDOCHES         NAVARRO
NEWTON               PANOLA              POLK
ROBERTSON            ROCKWALL            RUSK
SABINE               SAN AUGUSTINE       SAN JACINTO
SHELBY               SMITH               TARRANT
TRINITY              TYLER               VAN ZANDT
WALKER               WALLER              WASHINGTON
$$


ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...LCH...

[Andrew]

Looking at CAPE and PW values it is heading into better atmospheric conditions for continue development but at the same time with the loss of daytime heating it could limit how far south it makes it. Even the mixing CAPE looks impressive but time will tell.

[Andrew]

From Satellite analysis from NWS

"SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...REMARKABLY DEEP VERY COLD CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX ALONG THE SABINE RIVER IN W LA AND E TX HAVE NUMEROUS OVERSHOOTING
TOPS NEAR -80C... SOUNDER CAPES IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG ANALYZED SOUTH
AHEAD OF THE COMPLEX (ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF OLDER SEW LA COMPLEX)."

[srainhoutx]

Storms are diving WSW fairly quickly. Folks in Walker, Liberty and Montgomery Counties need to keep an eye out for very gusty winds nearing 60 mph +. I would not be surprised to see Harris County added to the Severe Thunderstorm Watch shortly as well.

[djjordan]

Frequent lightning being seen from the southside of lake conroe where I am currently.

[texoz]

How far west and south can this complex go? Are Austin/San Antonio in for middle the night / early morning surprise?

[rnmm]

I take it Galveston County should be ok as far as severe weather goes?

[tireman4]

Vivid lightning from a distance in Humble. Harbinger of things to come, I wonder?

[Andrew]

BV showing 60mph winds

[srainhoutx]

HGX issues Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Liberty, Mongomery, Polk & San Jacinto Counties

[Rip76]

May hold together for a sprinkle in Pearland.

[srainhoutx]

Showers across the Northern areas are dissipating, but a weak upper air disturbance is noted near Waco as well as a bit of an easterly wave/trough along Louisiana. Convective temps are a bit less today and with a bit more instability in place, aerial coverage appears to be a bit better across Central/SE Texas today.

SPC:

...CENTRAL/E TX THIS AFTERNOON...
A WEAK MIDLEVEL VORT MAX IS ROTATING WSWWD NEAR ACT...WITH SOME
ONGOING CONVECTION AND RESIDUAL CLOUDS FROM OVERNIGHT STORMS.
ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY ACROSS
CENTRAL/E TX IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WEAK MIDLEVEL WAVE...THOUGH THE
CLOUDS/EARLY CONVECTION AND NO CLEAR SURFACE FOCUS FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT ARGUE THAT THE DAMAGING WIND/HAIL RISKS WILL REMAIN
MARGINAL THIS AFTERNOON.