We'll need to watch the storms firing across far SE TX/SW LA this afternoon. These developing storms are increasing and generally moving W toward the Upper Texas Coast
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1258 PM CDT SUN JUL 22 2012
LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-
222000-
VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-
CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-WEST CAMERON-
EAST CAMERON-TYLER-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-NORTHERN JASPER-
NORTHERN NEWTON-SOUTHERN JASPER-SOUTHERN NEWTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LEESVILLE...NEW LLANO...ALEXANDRIA...
PINEVILLE...MARKSVILLE...BUNKIE...COTTONPORT...SIMMESPORT...
MANSURA...DE RIDDER...OAKDALE...KINDER...VILLE PLATTE...MAMOU...
OPELOUSAS...EUNICE...LAKE CHARLES...SULPHUR...JENNINGS...WELSH...
LAKE ARTHUR...CROWLEY...RAYNE...CHURCH POINT...LAFAYETTE...
BREAUX BRIDGE...ST. MARTINVILLE...ABBEVILLE...KAPLAN...
NEW IBERIA...MORGAN CITY...FRANKLIN...PATTERSON...BERWICK...
BAYOU VISTA...STEPHENSVILLE...HACKBERRY...HOLLY BEACH...CAMERON...
GRAND CHENIER...WOODVILLE...COLMESNEIL...LUMBERTON...SILSBEE...
BEAUMONT...PORT ARTHUR...ORANGE...VIDOR...BRIDGE CITY...JASPER...
KIRBYVILLE...NEWTON...BUNA...DEWEYVILLE
1258 PM CDT SUN JUL 22 2012
AT 12:50 PM...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS RECEIVED SEVERAL
REPORTS OF FUNNEL CLOUDS IN THE VICINITY OF ACADIA PARISH.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA
AT THIS TIME WITH GENERAL MOVEMENT TOWARDS THE WEST. STORMS WILL
INCREASE IN AREA AND STRENGTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE TROPICAL AIR MASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION. MEANWHILE...THE VERTICAL WIND PROFILE IS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE...THESE CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
TROPICAL FUNNEL CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY WHERE RAIN COOLED BOUNDARIES...
KNOWN AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COLLIDE.
TROPICAL FUNNEL CLOUDS ARE SHORT-LIVED AND GENERALLY DO NOT REACH
THE GROUND. IF THE FUNNEL CLOUD BECOMES MORE SEVERE AND REACHES
THE GROUND...MINOR DAMAGE MAY OCCUR...AND A TORNADO WARNING WILL
LIKELY BE ISSUED.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1543
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0314 PM CDT SUN JUL 22 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN TX...FAR SERN NM
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 222014Z - 222245Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A VERY ISOLATED THREAT FOR SVR WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST
ACROSS A BROAD AREA OF CNTRL/SRN TX INTO FAR SERN NM. THE SVR THREAT
WITH INDIVIDUAL STORMS SHOULD REMAIN BRIEF...WITH CONVECTION
REMAINING DISORGANIZED...AND THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS NOT NEEDED.
DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ANTICIPATED INTO LATE AFTERNOON OWING TO DEEP BOUNDARY-LAYER
CIRCULATIONS ASSOCIATED WITH SFC TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S TO AROUND
100 DEGREES AMIDST PW VALUES OF 1.1 TO 1.8 INCHES PER GPS DATA. THIS
MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE ENHANCED INVOF TWO AXES: /1/ ONE AXIS LYING
ACROSS SW TX INTO CNTRL NM OVER THE ERN FRINGES OF A BROAD
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME...AND /2/ ANOTHER AXIS ACROSS CNTRL/SERN
TX INVOF A MINOR IMPULSE TRAVERSING THE SRN FLANK OF A CNTRL CONUS
ANTICYCLONE. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON OWING TO
ASCENT IN ASSOCIATION WITH /1/ THE IMPULSE.../2/ A SFC TROUGH LYING
FROM THE TX SOUTH PLAINS INTO N-CNTRL TX.../3/ SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES
ALONG THE UPPER TX COASTAL PLAIN...AND /4/ DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
ZONES OVER THE FRINGES OF MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS ACCOMPANYING THE
IMPULSE AND CONVECTION APPROACHING FROM SWRN LA.
MLCAPE VALUES OF 500-1500 J/KG WILL SUPPORT SOME VIGOROUS
UPDRAFT/DOWNDRAFTS...WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS THE MAIN CONCERN. GIVEN
DCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG AIDED BY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...A VERY ISOLATED SVR THREAT MAY EVOLVE. HOWEVER...WEAK
LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW PER AREA VWP/PROFILER DATA WILL FOSTER
DISORGANIZED/PULSE CONVECTION...WITH ANY SVR THREAT EXPECTED TO
REMAIN VERY ISOLATED.
Folks, the outflow from the storms to our east and southeast is crossing our areas now. Storms are already starting to fire in Harris County. Also, watching mentioned Storms in east Texas and Western LA to see if they can push far enough west to directly impact our part of Texas.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1001 AM CDT MON JUL 23 2012
TXZ200-213-214-226-227-235>238-231845-
LIBERTY-HARRIS-CHAMBERS-WHARTON-FORT BEND-JACKSON-MATAGORDA-
BRAZORIA-GALVESTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LIBERTY...CLEVELAND...DAYTON...
HOUSTON...PASADENA...KATY...TOMBALL...HUMBLE...WINNIE...
MONT BELVIEU...ANAHUAC...EL CAMPO...WHARTON...PIERCE...
SUGAR LAND...MISSOURI CITY...RICHMOND...ROSENBERG...EDNA...
BAY CITY...PALACIOS...PEARLAND...LAKE JACKSON...ALVIN...
ANGLETON...FREEPORT...LEAGUE CITY...TEXAS CITY...FRIENDSWOOD...
GALVESTON
1001 AM CDT MON JUL 23 2012
THIS MORNING`S AIR MASS OVER THE REGION IS FAVORABLE FOR PRODUCING
FUNNEL CLOUDS. INTERSECTING LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES...COUPLED WITH
THIS BUOYANT TROPICAL AIR MASS...WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP STORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SHORT-LIVED FUNNEL CLOUDS. STAY ALERT AS
THESE FUNNEL CLOUDS CAN REACH THE GROUND TO BECOME SHORT LIVED
TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO WARNING. IF A FUNNEL CLOUD IS WITNESSED...
PLEASE REPORT IT TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OR THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
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Highly active weather pattern of late will be ending Wednesday as upper level ridging gradually takes control of the pattern.
Weakness in the ridge that has been lingering over TX and the south for at least 2-3 weeks is starting to fill as high pressure over the central US begins to sink southward. Still have deep moisture in place and fairly low trigger temperatures for today (mid 80’s) so showers and thunderstorms are once again likely along the coast over the next 2-4 hours and then spreading inland by midday.
Upper level high will begin to build over the area on Wednesday and this should reduce rain chances to only 20% along the afternoon seabreeze. High temperatures in the upper 80’s to lower 90’s of late will begin to increase with less clouds and rainfall and some locations by the end of the week could be nearing the upper 90’s to near 100. Wet to soggy grounds and increasingly heat will make for high heat index values during the afternoon hours, but indices will remain below advisory levels.
Will need to keep an eye on the Friday/Saturday period as northerly flow develops aloft with high pressure centered west of the area allowing a short wave trough and cool front to move into the NE TX/N LA area. Thunderstorms that develop along this boundary may have at least some chance of reaching the area in the evening hours as the steering flow is generally favorable.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
834 AM CDT TUE JUL 24 2012
TXZ200-213-214-226-227-235>238-241900-
LIBERTY-HARRIS-CHAMBERS-WHARTON-FORT BEND-JACKSON-MATAGORDA-
BRAZORIA-GALVESTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LIBERTY...CLEVELAND...DAYTON...
HOUSTON...PASADENA...KATY...TOMBALL...HUMBLE...WINNIE...
MONT BELVIEU...ANAHUAC...EL CAMPO...WHARTON...PIERCE...
SUGAR LAND...MISSOURI CITY...RICHMOND...ROSENBERG...EDNA...
BAY CITY...PALACIOS...PEARLAND...LAKE JACKSON...ALVIN...
ANGLETON...FREEPORT...LEAGUE CITY...TEXAS CITY...FRIENDSWOOD...
GALVESTON
834 AM CDT TUE JUL 24 2012
THIS MORNING`S AIR MASS IS AGAIN FAVORABLE FOR PRODUCING FUNNEL
CLOUDS. WITH LITTLE OR NO WARNING...FUNNEL CLOUDS CAN REACH THE
GROUND AND BECOME SHORT LIVED TORNADOES. IF A FUNNEL CLOUD IS
WITNESSED...PLEASE REPORT IT TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OR THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
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In my opinion, last night's ECMWF run appears to have come in weaker with our late week ridging. Shows tomorrow and Thursday having very active sea breeze convection, as well as the trough making it deeper into Texas and Louisiana late this week. However, this has been viewed through the eyes of an amateur on a very messy "MSL" view of "Wunderground's" ECMWF.
I tend to agree. What the guidance may be missing is the influence of the TUTT low moving inland into Deep S Texas the next couple of days putting our region in a more favorable pattern on the E side of that feature with 2.4+ PW's moving inland. We'll see if the guidance begins to pick up on that feature today.
Attachments
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
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Haven't seen any "hell" around here lately. Raining almost every day (7-16" across Houston in July). The high has only hit 95 degrees 3 times this July. Temperatures in July are averaging nearly 3 deg below normal. But we still have a good 2 more months of summer to enjoy.
First cold front is typically going to arrive here around the 4th week of September (after the 21st). Therefore, we have nearly another full 2 months of nice summer weather to enjoy.
wxman57 wrote:Haven't seen any "hell" around here lately. Raining almost every day (7-16" across Houston in July). The high has only hit 95 degrees 3 times this July. Temperatures in July are averaging nearly 3 deg below normal. But we still have a good 2 more months of summer to enjoy.
Hell is anything over 90... I agree July has been wonderful relatively speaking...
