July: Hot & Humid To End The Month

[Katdaddy]

I see a light banding structure moving SE from VCT which rotates slowly E and then NE into Brazoria county. Interesting to see if heavy rains develop overnight.

[Ptarmigan]

NWS Houston thinks we could see storms forming further inland tonight.

Code: Select all

000
FXUS64 KHGX 120204
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
904 PM CDT WED JUL 11 2012

.UPDATE...
MINOR UPDATES BELOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION HAS WOUND DOWN CONSIDERABLY THIS EVENING SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY. IN THE VERY SHORT TERM THIS EVENING HAVE UPDATED GRIDS
AND ZONE WORDING FOR ONLY ISOLATED THUNDER...AFTER MIDNIGHT IS
ANOTHER STORY. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AGAIN
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS PER THE PERSISTENT TREND. HRRR MODEL
GUIDANCE DID QUITE WELL LAST NIGHT WITH PLACEMENT OF TSRA ALONG
THE COAST. TONIGHT THE HRRR DEVELOPS STORMS FURTHER INLAND AS DOES
THE NEW 00Z NAM12. IF THIS SCENARIO HOLDS TRUE STORMS SHOULD FIRE
UP AROUND 07-08Z CLOSER TO METRO AREA THAN LAST NIGHT. STILL NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THAT SOLUTION TO REFINE THE SIZE OF THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH AREA. AREA SOUNDINGS STILL HAVE EXTREMELY MOIST
ATMOSPHERE WITH 00Z KLCH PWAT OF 2.05 INCH AND KSHV 2.27 INCH.
BLENDED PWAT PRODUCT AGREES WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER PWAT AIR POOLING
A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH IN CWA...BUT IT`S ALL HIGH. SATURATED
GROUNDS OVER MUCH OF THE CWA FROM RECENT RAINS...CONTINUATION OF
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS PRUDENT DESPITE THIS TEMPORARY LULL.

FEW SMALL TEMP AND DEW POINT CHANGES AS A FEW INLAND AREAS RUNNING
COOLER THAN FORECAST.   04

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 PM CDT WED JUL 11 2012/

AVIATION...
SINCE MOST MODELS ARE SHOWING ADDITIONAL SHRA DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AND
THEN SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY TOMORROW...HAVE KEPT VCSH
AND VCTS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE 00Z TAFS. THE EXACT LOCATION AND AXIS
OF DEVELOPING ACTIVITY REMAINS HARD TO PINPOINT...SO AVIATION FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. EXPECT TO SEE SOME MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
IN/NEAR THE STORMS. 42

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CDT WED JUL 11 2012/

DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTH AND NORTHWEST 1/3 OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
RATES UP TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND GIVE MUCH OF THE AREA A
BREAK FROM PRECIPITATION.

HOWEVER...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND TOWARD MORNING. IT IS NOT CLEAR EXACTLY WHERE THIS
RAIN WILL INITIATE - WHETHER IT BE ALONG THE COAST OR FURTHER
INLAND. SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR BOTH
SCENARIOS WITH EXCELLENT UPPER DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND GOOD SURFACE SPEED
CONVERGENCE FCST ALONG THE COAST. THIS COMBINED WITH 2.2-2.4"
PW`S.

PRECIPITATION WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
THURSDAY...RESIDENTS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR SOME TRAINING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL THAT MAY PRODUCE RIVER...CREEK AND STREET FLOODING.
THE FLASH FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH 4PM THURS.
SEE THAT PRODUCT FOR MORE SHORT TERM WX DETAILS. POTENTIALLY
DANGEROUS SITUATION IF THE HEAVIEST RAIN AFFECTS AREAS THAT HAVE
BEEN GETTING HIT HARD IN THE PAST 18 HOURS.

TROF AXIS/WEAKNESS LOOKS TO MEANDER AROUND THRU THE WEEKEND.
THOUGH MOISTURE LEVELS MIGHT DIMINISH A TOUCH THEY SHOULD STILL
HOVER AROUND 2" INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FEEL THAT WE SHOULD CONTINUE
TO SEE DECENT COVERAGE - PROBABLY BECOMING MORE DIURNAL IN NATURE
- INTO NEXT WEEK SO NUDGE AFTN POPS UPWARDS. MODEL TRENDS HAS
BEEN FOR DECREASING POPS ABOUT T+48 WHICH STILL HASN`T HAPPENED...SO
GENERAL PERSISTENCE IS PROBABLY THE WAY TO GO UNTIL SOMETHING
CHANGES. 47

MARINE...
NOT A LOT OF CHANGES TO THE GOING FCST TRENDS. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
WILL KEEP A LIGHT WIND REGIME IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALSO KEEP SCATTERED STORMS IN THE FCST THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS ARE POSSIBLE IN
AND NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      73  88  73  89  73 /  70  60  40  50  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              74  86  74  89  73 /  70  70  40  50  40
GALVESTON (GLS)            78  85  78  88  78 /  70  70  40  50  50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...
     COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...
     JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MATAGORDA...MONTGOMERY...
     POLK...SAN JACINTO...WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...04

[djjordan]

HGX issues Flash Flood Warning for Nw Harris , Montgomery, Waller, and San Jacinto counties until 7:15 am.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

My yard is a lake right now

[nuby3]

HARRIS/MONTGOMERY BORDER JUST NORTH OF TOMBALL HERE. IT IS DUMPING AND DUMPING. THUNDER/LIGHTNING, THE WORKS.

[srainhoutx]

Good morning from Baltimore. Jeff reports rainfall rates of 4 inches per hour in NW Harris & Montgomery Counties with the line of storms. Stay Safe everyone.

[jgreak]

aaaaaand the kingwood rain shield holds steady...

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Beat: the January 9 storm...6 inches and counting here... Crighton road washed out

[srainhoutx]

3 Day Totals so far from HCFCD...

[redneckweather]

Beat: the January 9 storm...6 inches and counting here... Crighton road washed out

Where is Crighton Rd washed out at...close to 45?

It looks like the rain is moving out of the area in western/central Montgomery County and pushing eastward.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Crighton is flooded between 1314 and 3083

[jasons2k]

Looks like we're all getting some rain today. Been raining here since about 5AM with lots of thunder too. I have no idea how much, but it's WET!

[weatherguy425]

Just had some pretty high winds in the kingwood area, looking at radar it appears a little bow echo has formed in northeast Harris County...wouldn't be surprised if a warning was is issued

[redneckweather]

Looks like we're all getting some rain today. Been raining here since about 5AM with lots of thunder too. I have no idea how much, but it's WET!

At the least, probably doubled what you have gotten this week so far?

[MontgomeryCoWx]

In the past 12 Month period, Lake Conroe has received 61.8 inches of rain. As you can imagine, 95% of that has fallen since December.

A lot of places are up over 50 inches in the Houston Metro area.

[srainhoutx]

E-mail update from Jeff:

Moderate to at times heavy rainfall continues over Harris County. Rainfall amounts in the past 3 hours have averaged 3-5 inches over NW Harris County on top of the 3-4 inches that fell yesterday.



Public/law enforcement/ and Harris County employees report extensive street flooding across much of NW Harris County including the Copperfield, Cypress, Hockley areas.



Cypress Creek:

The creek is rising and will likely exceed banks from US 290 downstream to below Grant Rd. Minor flooding along the creek is expected. Expecting levels to reach near 127-128 feet at Huffmeister today and this is near the lowest home elevation (128 ft). Roads near the creek especially downstream of US 290 near Barker Cypress may become flooded and impassable.



South Mayde Creek:

The creek is rising and will likely exceed its banks at Greenhouse Rd. Minor flooding will impact/close roads near/downstream of Greenshouse (including Saums, Groeschke, and possibly Barker Cypress). Flooding of Cullen Park is likely



Langham Creek:

Creek is high, but within banks



Bear Creek:

Creek is high but within banks



Upper Spring Creek:

Creek is rising and will likely reach bankfull at Hegar Rd this morning. South approach to the bridge may become inundated and impassable.



Rainfall:

Additional moderate to at times heavy rainfall continues to develop over Waller and western Harris Counties. Additional rainfall amounts of .25 to .75 of an inch are possible over the next 1-2 hours.

[Belmer]

I'm coming in town (back to Pasadena) tomorrow because my brother I haven't seen in a long time is flying in for a few days. I'm leaving San Marcos around 6:00am or so and that should put me into Houston around 9:00am. Am I going to have to worry about another one of these rain events stalled over Houston tomorrow morning? I know chance of rain drops after today, but wasn't sure if another overnight rain event was going to erupt again.

[nuby3]

This is amazing. It's bee absolutely pouring here with thunder for over 5 hours straight. harris/montgomery border just north of tomball

[txflagwaver]

Looks like we have a break coming in an hour or so..

[jabcwb2]

Dear METS - do you think this rain will move out of the Houston area by noon? Thanks!