July: Hot & Humid To End The Month

[Rip76]

Not a met, but according to this

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/Conus/so ... s_loop.php

probably not.

[redneckweather]

It looks like convection is starting to re-fire north of Montgomery County pushing southward.

[Stormrider]

Heavier rain seems to be shifting to the coast. Steady rain here in Galveston. I've picked up a little over an inch so far this morning.

[jasons2k]

It's been a busy morning so I just read the 10:30 AM AFD. I'm not convinced this will weaken and move away as quickly as projected. Satellite loops show areas just to the NW is getting sun as the anvils are blown E. Radar/satellite shows backbuilding continuing and with new storms firing to the North, in the sun and moving south, the flooding may continue.

[tireman4]

Yeah, I think we maybe socked in for the day in this pattern. It might make for a messy commute home.

[michmich]

It has not stopped raining here since 4:30 a.m. Finally did slow down about an hour ago. We're at Grant/Louetta. Drove around a bit ago, roads are okay, but lots of flooding. Cy-Creek is out of its banks, but not on the roads. We definitely don't need any more heavy rain today!

[niner21]

More rain, More rain, WHooo hooo more rain!! Floods yeah!!!

This 40,000 year drought is just killing us!!! It's about to look like the desert southwest!!! LOL!!!!

I got about 5 inches of rain over the last 3-4 days. This is a joke!!!

[jasons2k]

My wife drove all around Bastrop yesterday and showed me the pictures of the stumps and moonscape. Yeah, some folks are counting their blessings that we are having rain.

[jasons2k]

Wow - my Stratus rain gauge is the most full it's been since I bought it about 3 years ago. 5.21" since I emptied it yesterday evening. That puts my 5 day total at just under 7".

[Kludge]

Wow - my Stratus rain gauge is the most full it's been since I bought it about 3 years ago. 5.21" since I emptied it yesterday evening. That puts my 5 day total at just under 7".

As an extremely wise man once said, "hang in there, Jason, you'll get yours"

[Katdaddy]

Picked up 1.31" this morning which is much more less than the 10.82" 12 hour total in far NW Harris County.

[djjordan]

Curious to see where rain sets up overnight tonight? Could be anywhere from Montgomery/Harris county to the coastline (Galveston area). I was in Conroe last night and left at about 2:30AM right before the rain erupted right over the city and formed into the massive slow moving line of thunderstorms that dumped all of that rainfall today. It's amazing how much moisture is in the atmosphere. You can literally feel the moisture when you step outside. I'm leaving for a roadtrip early Friday morning so you can bet I'll be watching with keen interest tonight and tomorrow morning how the next batch of rainfall sets up. Flash Flood Watch until 1PM tomorrow.

[jasons2k]

Looking at water vapor - there is some dry air on the backside of the trough axis not far to the NW - I wonder if that will start to mix-in. The TTU-WRF shows PWATS staying high across SE Texas at least thru 48 hours (as far out as it goes).

It also favors inland locations overnight (scary thought).

Also, there is a pretty tight ULL out in the GOM - I wonder what that will do...

[mckinne63]

What are the experts best guess for this weekend? My husband has a lake party up at Lake Livingston on Saturday. After today, I'm thinking it will be an indoor party. He told me rain chance 30%, I told him no, it was 50%. Even absence of rain, I think it is going to be a wet soggy mess.

Also wondering when the last time we had 73 degrees at noon in July.

[jasons2k]

Per NWS, 30% at Lake Livingston on Sat: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... tType=text

[weatherguy425]

Looking at water vapor - there is some dry air on the backside of the trough axis not far to the NW - I wonder if that will start to mix-in. The TTU-WRF shows PWATS staying high across SE Texas at least thru 48 hours (as far out as it goes).

It also favors inland locations overnight (scary thought).

Also, there is a pretty tight ULL out in the GOM - I wonder what that will do...

Yup, PWATS have dropped off, especially across western areas. Also, recent runs of the HRRR show much less coverage of rain overnight (though if it falls in the right place it could still cause problems). Guess it'll be another night of radar watching.

[mckinne63]

Per NWS, 30% at Lake Livingston on Sat: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... tType=text

Thanks Jason!

[Ptarmigan]

I am noticing dry air west of Houston, which is where the stalled out front is.

[sambucol]

Any idea when the rains will come to an end?

[Ptarmigan]

I looked at HRRR and RAP and they forecast more rain forming after midnight over Houston.

HRRR
http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus/ ... 2012+-+01Z

RAP
http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/RR/

Code: Select all

000
FXUS64 KHGX 130207
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
907 PM CDT THU JUL 12 2012

.DISCUSSION...
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ONGOING FOR PORTIONS OF NW HARRIS COUNTY AND
MATAGORDA COUNTY..SEE APPROPRIATE FLSHGX FLOOD STATEMENTS...PART
OF NW HARRIS COUNTY RECEIVED 8.5 TO 10.3 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE
PAST 24 HOURS. ONE OF THE CYPRESS CREEK STREAM GAUGES WAS
REPORTING STAGE HEIGHTS REMINISCENT OF VALUES FROM TS ALLISON.
LATEST HRRR (WHICH HAS PERFORMED WELL THE PAST TWO NIGHTS) AND TX
TECH WRF REFLECTIVITY FIELD FORECASTS AGAIN SHOW SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPING IN THE 07-08Z RANGE OVERNIGHT IN SE TX PARTICULARLY
CLOSE OR JUST UPSTREAM OF WORST HIT FLOODING TODAY. COVERAGE AND
RAINFALL INTENSITY DO NOT APPEAR TO BE AS LARGE AND INTENSE AS
LAST NIGHT BUT IS OF LITTLE CONSOLATION IF ADDITIONAL RAINS DO
FALL. THE MEAN 1000-700MB TROUGH HAS SHIFTED A BIT SOUTHEAST IN
THE PAST 24HRS AS DEPICTED BY RADAR/PROFILER LOOPS. AREA 00Z
SOUNDINGS ARE A TAD BIT DRIER...KLCH WAS 2.04 INCH LAST NIGHT AND
TONIGHT IS AROUND 1.85 INCH. BLENDED PWAT IMAGERY ON AWIPS2 ALSO A
TAD BIT DRIER...HENCE PREVIOUS SHIFTS OUTLOOK OF LESS INTENSIVE
AND LESS COVERAGE SEEMS GOOD. GIVEN THE PREDICTED RECURRENCE OF
LATE NIGHT RAINS JUST N AND NW OF METRO HOUSTON THESE MAY BEGIN TO
MOVE SW AS DEPICTED BY HRRR/TTECH WRF WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HVY
RAIN MAINLY EAST OF I45...SAY EASTERN 1/3 OF HARRIS..CHAMBERS AND
LIBERTY COUNTIES IN THE MORNING HOURS. BEARS WATCHING. NONETHELESS...CURRENT
OUTLINE OF FLASH FLOOD WATCH LOOKS GOOD FOR THE OVERNIGHT AND
MORNING HOURS.

OTHERWISE A FEW TWEAKS FOR TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVERAGE AS
POCKETS OF SUN APPEARED LATE IN THE AFTERNOON IN SE TX AND SENT
TEMPS INTO THE MID 80S IN A FEW LOCATIONS.
04
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 PM CDT THU JUL 12 2012/

AVIATION...
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL AXIS IN THE AREA MOVING LITTLE OVER THE NEXT DAY
OR SO...EXPECT TO SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS OVERNIGHT THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY TOMORROW...
PERHAPS SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. TAF SITES
COULD EXPERIENCE MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN/NEAR THE STORMS
WITH MOSTLY/GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS OTHERWISE.  42

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 PM CDT THU JUL 12 2012/

DISCUSSION...
THE LARGE AREA OF RAINFALL THAT AFFECTED THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION THIS MORNING HAS LARGELY DISSIPATED OR MOVED OFFSHORE THIS
MORNING. ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT BUT THIS
ACTIVITY IS MOVING TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE AREAS AFFECTED THIS MORNING.

MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR
A REPEAT EARLY MORNING HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE REGION. ALL OF THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT
REDEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
AND EAST TEXAS. THE NAM IS THE FARTHEST NORTH WITH THIS ACTIVITY
WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP DEVELOPMENT CLOSER TO GALVESTON BAY.
THE 3KM TEXAS TECH WRF RUN THAT PERFORMED VERY WELL WITH THE
ACTIVITY TODAY IS THE MOST TROUBLING...WITH REDEVELOPMENT
OCCURRING ACROSS HARRIS COUNTY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH IT
DOES APPEAR THAT THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE RAINFALL WILL BE LESS
TONIGHT ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WOULD BE UNWELCOME ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION. WITH THIS IN MIND HAVE EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH MIDDAY ON FRIDAY.

NOT MANY CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE UPPER WEAKNESS WILL
REMAIN CLOSE TO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR A
CONTINUATION OF THE CURRENT WET PATTERN. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
SHIFT MORE TOWARDS A DIURNALLY DRIVEN PATTERN WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING EACH AFTERNOON. THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS NEXT WEEK
WHICH SHOULD INCREASE TEMPS A BIT ACROSS THE REGION BUT STILL
ALLOW FOR SOME CONVECTION CLOSE TO THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON. 38

MARINE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO CURRENT FCST TRENDS. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
WILL KEEP A LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  THE LINGERING
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL ALSO KEEP SCATTERED STORMS IN THE FCST THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. BRIEF GUSTY WINDS/ELEVATED SEAS ARE POSSIBLE IN
AND NEAR THE STRONGER STORMS. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      75  89  72  91  73 /  30  50  30  30  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              73  89  72  91  73 /  50  50  40  40  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            80  88  80  89  80 /  50  50  50  40  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...COLORADO...FORT
     BEND...GALVESTON...HARRIS...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MATAGORDA...
     MONTGOMERY...WALLER...WHARTON.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...04