July: Hot & Humid To End The Month

[Andrew]

Winter? We're talking about winter? We haven't even hit the peak of hurricane season yet.

[sleetstorm]

When was the last time any city in Alaska had a daytime high of 90ºf or higher in the past? And, when was the last time any city in Canada had a daytime of 100ºF or higher?

[sleetstorm]

The current temp here has reached the centurey mark with a heat index at 108ºF. I wonder if Ticka1 has the same temperature reading.

[ticka1]

i had 105 here at the house! it has been a warm one today!

[Katdaddy]

Will the storms moving into SE TX from SW LA make it to the Houston-Galveston areas this evening? We shall see.

000
WUUS54 KLCH 282252
SVRLCH
LAC019-023-TXC245-361-282345-
/O.NEW.KLCH.SV.W.0075.120728T2252Z-120728T2345Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
552 PM CDT SAT JUL 28 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL JEFFERSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES...PORT NECHES...PORT ARTHUR...NEDERLAND...GROVES...
ORANGE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES...WEST ORANGE...VIDOR...ORANGE...BRIDGE CITY...
SOUTHWESTERN CALCASIEU PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...
NORTHWESTERN CAMERON PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...

* UNTIL 645 PM CDT

* AT 551 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH...OVER BRIDGE CITY...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
GROVES AND PORT NECHES BY 620 PM CDT...
PORT ARTHUR AND NEDERLAND BY 630 PM CDT...

[Katdaddy]

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
722 PM CDT SAT JUL 28 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN CHAMBERS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN GALVESTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 800 PM CDT

* AT 715 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS
STORM WAS LOCATED 15 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WINNIE OR 7 MILES
NORTHWEST OF HIGH ISLAND MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 20 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ROLLOVER PASS...CRYSTAL BEACH...HIGH ISLAND...OAK ISLAND.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING WIND DAMAGE. THIS IS A VERY
DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE
AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

[srainhoutx]

Folks in Baytown, La Porte, Deer Park, Pasadena, Seabrook/Kemah, heads up. Stornger storms along the northern fringe of the SW bound complex.

[Canebo]

Theses storms won't make it much past the east side of town. Coming from the east, they very rarely make it past Galveston Bay for whatever reason. Too bad, we needed the rain.

[ticka1]

storms dissapated before getting to my house between baytown and mont belvieu.

[Rip76]

Well this little storm came out of nowhere this morning.

[srainhoutx]

The 13Z HRRR is rather suggestive of some stronger storms across our eastern zones as this disturbance moves generally W bound throughout the day.

[srainhoutx]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Large dome of high pressure located over N TX and OK with extreme heat will remain in place for much of this week.

Upper air analysis shows an expansive ridge of high pressure centered over the TX panhandle into SE CO this morning with SE TX sitting on the SE flank of this feature. Upper level steering flow over our region is out of the ENE so our weather will be driven over the next 3-5 days by any weak disturbances rounding the eastern side of this ridge and crossing near/south of our area. This suggest that any small rain chances will be focused near the coast/offshore through at least Thursday with ridging in place across the rest of the area. One such disturbance moved across the coastal waters yesterday producing a few storms south of I-10 during the afternoon hours. While it will be hot with the ridge near, it will not be the brutal heat that will bake much of the central plains this week. High temperatures will top out in the mid to upper 90’s during the afternoon hours, but a weak landbreeze overnight will allow morning lows to fall into the mid 70’s at most locations. Overall fairly normal weather for late July.

Toward the end of the week, the ridge over the plains will retrograde westward and yet another weakness in the height field aloft develops over LA and E TX (so common this summer). Will need to bring rain chances back into the forecast starting Saturday. Sunday looks to possibly see some fairly decent coverage with deeper moisture advecting into the area and ridging backing to the west. It should be noted that this pattern places the Gulf coast at the mercy of any possible tropical waves/systems in the Atlantic hurricane pipeline with little to no blocking ridging for protection.



Tropics:

99L:
An area of low pressure has developed 800 miles SW of the Cape Verde Islands. This system is moving westward at 10-15mph with scattered thunderstorms. Global forecast models all suggest some degree of development with this system with the CMC being the most aggressive. Conditions across the middle of the deep tropical Atlantic appear favorable for slow development. While most of the models do show some development, most cap the system near tropical storm intensity. With deep layer high pressure north of 99L over the central Atlantic, the westward motion should continue for the next several days.

[srainhoutx]

Afternoon e-mail from Jeff re: Comparing July 2011 to July 2012:

All,

I have compared the rainfall cross Harris County for July 2011 and July 2012 and the results are very impressive (showing how dry 2011 was and how wet 2012 has been).

Over the northwest part of the county, where rainfall was least last July it has been the greatest this July. Most locations across Harris County are running over 5 times the amount of rainfall this July compared to last July and across the NW part of the county the rainfall this July is 10-15 times more. For a dramatic comparison site 1190 (Little Mound Creek at Mathis Road:July 2011: .04 in compared to July 2012: 17.52 in)

I have also attached all the Flood Warning gage stations for July 2012 and July 2011 rainfall at each site and the differences along with a graph showing the difference. I also attached the January to July rainfall and those differences.

July 2012 Rainfall:

July 2011 Rainfall: