Wx Infinity Forums

Belmer wrote:Well, we have Tropical Storm Debby! 50mph storm. They disagree with the American Model (GFS).
Whole TX coast is in the projected path. Has it making landfall at 70mph!

The game is finally underway.

I feel like with all the feedback issues from the gfs they just couldn't give it much credit.

Okay, folks, time to ramp up the concern. I'm sure everyone knows the drill. ATM Corpus looks to be a good bet. However, just as the cone suggests, it could end up north of south of there. We need the rain, and I doubt this one would be anything remotely close to Rita or Ike in stature. I say, bring it on.

BB

Game on and threat is real. Time to really pay attention. I may be headed back to League City from NTX to make preps by Tuesday.

I'll be cranking up my generator tomorrow to make sure it works. Plenty of propane on hand. Canned/dry food, pasta, and some water. Remember that intensity forecasts are notoriously wrong. I'll prep for a 1983 Alica type storm and be happy if it ends up being weaker... and not at us.

I do not want to sound panicked nor do I want to be accused of being panicked, but I have jumped on the "let's prepare" bandwagon myself, as I will be leaving out of state in the wee hours of Friday morning for vacation (maybe)...I figure if nothing happens then so be it, my house will just look really funny being boarded up while I am away...

I do have some canned foods, but am wondering should I get more...or am I even gonna be able to leave out on vacation...I know time will tell, just some things popping around in my head!

While we have today thru Tuesday, and possibly Wednesday to prepare for Debby, this does not need to be ignored just because the NHC has it making landfall as a strong tropical storm. As we have seen in the past, even a weak tropical storm can do significant flooding (Allison). It is clear that this looks to mainly be a rain maker more than a wind storm wherever it hits. Clearly look at the west coast of Florida as they are just getting soaked today with possibly up to 15+ inches of rain before Debby starts heading westward, carrying most of the moisture with it. However, the Gulf of Mexico is warm, with waters anywhere from 82-85 degrees. I don't expect much development into the rest of today or tonight, but tomorrow as shear from the west to east relaxes a little bit more, I do expect this storm to strengthen. I feel like it's too early to say whether it will be a Hurricane, but as David Paul mentioned, "remember that intensity forecasts are notoriously wrong. I'll prep for a 1983 Alica type storm and be happy if it ends up being weaker..."

I couldn't have said that better myself. Storms in the Gulf are known to quickly strengthen in just hours. Take Wilma for example, although it may have not been in the Gulf when it rapidly went from a minimal hurricane to a Category 5 (185mph) winds in just 24 hours, no one predicted that, and I don't think anyone could have. Another thing that worries me slightly, is many trees across the Houston area and I'm sure all along the TX coast have very weak roots still from last year's horrible drought. Even a Category 1 Hurricane can do some pretty significant damage with many power outages if this storm gets close to Houston. Now would be a good time to get some branches cut down.

As we have seen from the projected path, the entire TX coast is in it, with a portion of Louisiana as well as northern Mexico. If Debby does indeed turn west, which seems more than likely, than it's pretty clear that we will see some rain. Even if it Debby tracks in southern TX or northern MX, the least would be a few pop up showers with the SE flow. Forecasters should have a much better grip on this situation tomorrow and early into Monday. But that doesn't mean to start getting things ready now! Even if Debby goes East or towards Mexico, this is JUST the beginning of Hurricane season. We still have 5 months to go, and still a little over two months before the peak. El Nino isn't expected to really get going until sometime later this Fall and I don't believe this will be the last storm between now and November the Gulf coast will be tracking, especially since this is supposed to be more of a "home grown" storm season.
Even though Debby hasn't made landfall yet, it has already made a historic record with it being the first time since 1851 that four storms have been named before July. Just amazing!

Anyway, I'm glad to see this forum come alive and see that we have many members online as well as guest. For the guest that have not signed up yet, I encourage you to do so as we welcome you to this forum. Lots of great analysis on here from many of our pros. It's going to be an exciting and anxious few days, but the main thing we hope to get out of this, is a few inches of rain.

Quite a visual masterpiece:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-wv.html

debby seems to be trying to wrap around and strengthen in spite of the shearing.

people that love weather, either a cat 5 or cat 1 wants it to hit us. for some reason i get dissapointed when a hurricane missses us.

rnmm wrote:I do not want to sound panicked nor do I want to be accused of being panicked, but I have jumped on the "let's prepare" bandwagon myself, as I will be leaving out of state in the wee hours of Friday morning for vacation (maybe)...I figure if nothing happens then so be it, my house will just look really funny being boarded up while I am away...

I do have some canned foods, but am wondering should I get more...or am I even gonna be able to leave out on vacation...I know time will tell, just some things popping around in my head!

I'm not 100% sold on the forecast track. That being said with vertical sheer decreasing, intensification is probable and speed may increase. I would venture to guess that 'if' she were to make a landfall near SETX it will happen before Friday.

I will get up early tomorrow and get my preparations underway.I already have some of the things my family and i need,and i'll complete my list in the morning.I cranked the old generator up last weekend.

If I was in town I would also start some preliminary preps. I will have to wait and make a judgement call Monday if I need to travel back home to prepare. I dont like being out of town with a tropical threat.

desiredwxgd wrote:
I'm not 100% sold on the forecast track. That being said with vertical sheer decreasing, intensification is probable and speed may increase. I would venture to guess that 'if' she were to make a landfall near SETX it will happen before Friday.

I certainly think the NHC's track is quite non-committal in keeping it offshore for 5 days. My track has it inland near Corpus on Wednesday afternoon. NHC's typically reluctant to commit to landfall with so much model uncertainty so they just slow it down and keep it offshore at first. As for the threat to us, that'll be a fairly strong ridge developing to our north by Mon/Tue. Would be hard for Debby not to track south of west as it heads toward Texas. We may get some 20-30 mph winds here and maybe a few inches of rain as it moves inland to our south on Wednesday.

Thanks wxman57. Thats exactly what I want to hear being out of town next week.

I just do not see how that center doesn't relocate to the NE.

18z HWRF -

Rip76 wrote:I just do not see how that center doesn't relocate to the NE.

There isn't really any intense convection to draw in the center. Right now everything keeps getting sheared but as the ULL moves to the southwest it should allow for more stacking. The LLC is pretty defined just doesn't have any convection over it. It is possible though it could relocate time will tell.

This is what Joe B posted on Twitter. He agrees with the NHC path and hope he is wrong with the intensity being a CAT2/3 at landfall between Corpus Christi and Matagorda Bay. The Upper TX Coast would get significant effects should this materialize.

Katdaddy wrote:This is what Joe B posted on Twitter. He agrees with the NHC path and hope he is wrong with the intensity being a CAT2/3 at landfall between Corpus Christi and Matagorda Bay. The Upper TX Coast would get significant effects should this materialize.

Was'nt he buying into the eastward solution a few days ago.

Yes he was totally thus I had to post. Find it interesting that for once he is on the side of the NHC. Of course I hope he is completely wrong. Usually way over hypes tropical event. He is however very good with long range pattern recognitions.

18z GFDL has changed and is inline with most of the other models. Approaches Grand Isle before turning W and hugging the coast.