Post Tropical Cyclone Debby. Exiting E Over The Atlantic

[Rip76]

I've got to stop looking at loops myself.
I just can't see this system making it here.

[tireman4]

LOL...Katy get your engines ready. Almost as good as Ed saying IKE is not coming to the Upper TX Coast.

That is right. Ed claimed on Storm2K season cancel like in August of that year. That is right. LOL

[Andrew]

I've got to stop looking at loops myself.
I just can't see this system making it here.

Once trough lifts out ridge builds in to the north pushing it north. Right now the system is sheared that is why the convection is moving north towards Florida but that is not the true direction. Not much movement with the LLC actually.

[Andrew]

LOL...Katy get your engines ready. Almost as good as Ed saying IKE is not coming to the Upper TX Coast.

That is right. Ed claimed on Storm2K season cancel like in August of that year. That is right. LOL

Still to this day Paul holds that over him

[Katdaddy]

Great point txflagwaver. This is a large tropical storm forecast to move slowly W. If the models pan out we will have coastal flooding along the TX and LA Coasts. Now is the time to prepare. One thing I finally learned from IKE in 2008 is to balance the
concern and preps with humour. As much as I love tropical cyclones, its are a very stressful event when one decides to visit the Upper TX Coast. Thankfully IKE and Rita did not become the worst case scenario.

[biggerbyte]

LOL! I reminded him of it once and he has hated me ever since. Blocks my posts on this forum. Got real nasty.

Oh well! This is a good sign, actually. Ed predicted this would not happen too. We REALLY need the rain.

Thanks, Ed.

Wink! Wink!

[weatherguy425]

Not sure if anyone's posted this yet...

http://www.ral.ucar.edu/hurricanes/real ... _early.png

EDIT: File was too big and I guess I missed the warning, guess I'll just have to link the URl. Can anyone tell me how to fix the file size so it'll allow me to post these images?

[Belmer]

Not sure if anyone's posted this yet...

Were you trying to upload a picture/link?

[weatherguy425]

I went ahead and just posted the URL, thanks.

[Scott747]

I think that ULL is doing more damage in the short-term then expected.

TWD dismissed so I could be over analyzing it.

[Andrew]

NAM has a brief run in with LA before heading WSW. Looks reasonable to me. I could see it running into the Central gulf coast and then turning WSW back into the gulf before heading west.

Edit to add NAM splits the energy.

[Andrew]

Ridge is building to the north.

http://www.atmo.arizona.edu/products/wx ... 0mbwv.html

[srainhoutx]

TROPICAL STORM DEBBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
0300 UTC SUN JUN 24 2012

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF LOUISIANA FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER WESTWARD
TO MORGAN CITY...NOT INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS OR LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.3N 87.5W AT 24/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.3N 87.5W AT 24/0300Z
AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.1N 87.5W

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 26.7N 87.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 27.0N 88.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 27.1N 88.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 27.2N 89.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 27.2N 91.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 27.2N 93.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 27.2N 95.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.3N 87.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[singlemom]

Sooo...are the models actually shifting back East (i.e. the GFS solution) or is this a typical flip flop situation? Or is this just a really slow forming system? Or the oddest split models we've seen in a while?

Or "D" all of the above?

[srainhoutx]

Sooo...are the models actually shifting back East (i.e. the GFS solution) or is this a typical flip flop situation? Or is this just a really slow forming system? Or the oddest split models we've seen in a while?

Or "D" all of the above?

No. NHC is keeping the W track and increasing the intensity to a CAT 1 Hurricane early next week. The full package will be out shortly.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
1000 PM CDT SAT JUN 23 2012

...DEBBY REMAINS STATIONARY OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...
...HEAVY SQUALLS AFFECTING PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.3N 87.5W
ABOUT 215 MI...350 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF LOUISIANA FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER WESTWARD
TO MORGAN CITY...NOT INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS OR LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.5 WEST. DEBBY HAS
BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY THIS EVENING...AND LITTLE MOVEMENT IS
EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION IS
FORECAST TO BEGIN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL
WESTWARD TURN SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF DEBBY WILL BE MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE OCCURRING WELL EAST OF THE CENTER OF
CIRCULATION. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND DEBBY COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH BY MONDAY NIGHT.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM..
MAINLY NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON NEARBY SHIP AND BUOY
REPORTS IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE
COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT...MAKING OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE
GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...1 TO 3 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE
TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER
SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE
SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL...DEBBY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM SOUTHERN LOUISIANA TO THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES.
ADDITIONAL RAINS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 5
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 AM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/LANDSEA

[Andrew]

KTLH wondering if NE jog means GFS will be right. IPad doesn't let me see loops in the wilderness...

Current outlook says it is stationary and it has not moved NE. Without visible right now it is almost impossible to figure out especially with all the shear.

[Scott747]

lol

You had to know with Stewart on the desk it would be a 'bullish' forecast.

[txflagwaver]

Great point txflagwaver. This is a large tropical storm forecast to move slowly W. If the models pan out we will have coastal flooding along the TX and LA Coasts. Now is the time to prepare. One thing I finally learned from IKE in 2008 is to balance the
concern and preps with humour. As much as I love tropical cyclones, its are a very stressful event when one decides to visit the Upper TX Coast. Thankfully IKE and Rita did not become the worst case scenario.

While Rita and Ike did not become worst case scenario, for those of us on the coast with 3+ feet of water in the house...or no house at all...it was.

[srainhoutx]

TROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
1000 PM CDT SAT JUN 23 2012

DEBBY IS GRADUALLY SHOWING SIGNS OF IMPROVED ORGANIZATION AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR SHIFTS FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT. SHIP ZCDJ2 LOCATED ABOUT 80 NMI EAST OF THE CENTER AND
NEAR NOAA BUOY 42003 REPORTED A PRESSURE OF 1001.6 MB AND 38 KT
WINDS AT 24/00Z. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...THE CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS CONSERVATIVELY ESTIMATED TO BE 998 MB. AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE
DATA AT 23/2020Z INDICATED 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 61 KT IN
THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...WHICH IS EQUAL TO ABOUT 49 KT SURFACE
WINDS. CONVECTION WAS SOMEWHAT MEAGER AT THAT...BUT SINCE THEN HAS
INCREASED RATHER MARKEDLY IN THAT AREA. THEREFORE THE INITIAL
INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS A SOLID 45 KT.

DEBBY HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. MULTIPLE
LOW-LEVEL VORTICES HAVE BEEN OUT FROM UNDERNEATH THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS ABOUT A MEAN CENTER OF ROTATION OF
A LARGER GYRE...AND THE LOCATION OF THE LARGER STATIONARY GYRE IS
THE ADVISORY POSITION. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME SLIGHT
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION DUE TO REDEVELOPMENT OF THE CENTER CLOSER TO
THE DEEP CONVECTION...THE GENERAL MOTION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR
SO SHOULD BE SLOWLY POLEWARD. THE LONGWAVE PATTERN ACROSS THE U.S.
HAS A DEEPENING TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST...WHICH IS CREATING
DOWNSTREAM RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES.
THIS INCREASED RIDGING IS REFLECTED BY 20-40 METER 500 MB HEIGHT
RISES AT 00Z ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND EXTENDING
AS FAR EAST AS THE CAROLINA COASTS. THIS BLOCKING RIDGE PATTERN TO
THE NORTH OF DEBBY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN THE CYCLONE
WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO BY 36-48
HOURS...WITH A CONTINUED WESTWARD MOTION ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
GULF AFTER THAT. ALL OF THE AVAILABLE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE...EXCEPT
FOR THE GFS AND GFS-ENSEMBLE MODELS...SUPPORTS THE GENERAL WESTWARD
MOTION SCENARIO. THE MAIN REASON THAT THE GFS MOVES DEBBY EASTWARD
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF IS DUE TO IT HAVING A WEAKER AND MORE
VERTICALLY SHALLOW STORM DEPICTED IN THE MODEL. GIVEN THE EXPECTED
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WITH WEAKER VERTICAL SHEAR
FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS...A DEEPER AND MORE ROBUST
WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL CYCLONE AS DEPICTED IN THE
ECMWF...UKMET... NOGAPS MODELS SEEMS A MORE REASONABLE SCENARIO.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY TRACK.

MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
GIVE WAY TO SOUTHERLY AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEASTERLY WEAKER WIND
SHEAR BY 36-48 HOURS AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE
MOVES SOUTHWESTWARD...WHICH ALLOWS DEBBY TO MOVE UNDERNEATH A 200
MB RIDGE AXIS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE
ECMWF MODEL...WHICH IS FORECASTING A HURRICANE CENTRAL PRESSURE BY
96 HOURS...AND IS ABOVE THE GFS-BASED SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS SINCE
THAT OUTPUT LIKELY DOES NOT REPRESENT THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
THAT DEBBY WILL ENCOUNTER. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A
LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND BRINGS DEBBY TO
HURRICANE STRENGTH BY 72 HOURS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0300Z 26.3N 87.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 24/1200Z 26.7N 87.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 25/0000Z 27.0N 88.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 25/1200Z 27.1N 88.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 26/0000Z 27.2N 89.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 27/0000Z 27.2N 91.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 28/0000Z 27.2N 93.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 29/0000Z 27.2N 95.2W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[singlemom]

No. NHC is keeping the W track and increasing the intensity to a CAT 1 Hurricane early next week. The full package will be out shortly.

Thanks again....and many thanks to all the folks who make this such a great forum. I really appreciate the time you guys take to keep us informed and break things down. Thanks.