Post Tropical Cyclone Debby. Exiting E Over The Atlantic

[Andrew]

Proximity to land and shear is what is really limiting this system right now. Shear tendencies does suggest lowering shear speeds soon though.

[srainhoutx]

One thing to point out is the location of the Central/EC Ridge next week. The Euro suggests the Ridge will be basically over the Mid Mississippi Valley/Ohio Valley regions. Also notice the troughing developing along the W Coast. What we will need to monitor in the coming days is exactly how transient the heat ridge is and how quickly the Western trough heads E. Any weakness in the upper air pattern could tug a potential tropical cyclone inland a tad further up the Coast from the landfall suggested by today’s suite of operational model guidance minus the GFS. That said the trends W do raise an eyebrow and all eyes will need to monitor developments throughout the weekend along Coastal Texas/Louisiana and down SW for our neighbors along the Mexican NE Gulf Coast.

[srainhoutx]

HPC through the Euro cycle:

MONSOON DEPRESSION IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...
PREFERENCE: 12Z GEFS MEAN/06Z HWRF COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE FOR TRACK SHAPE/BELOW AVERAGE FOR
PROGRESSION/SPEED

THE 12Z GFS CONTINUES TO DRAG THIS CYCLONE TOWARDS TAMPA /THOUGH
SLOWER THAN ITS 06Z RUN/...USING A PAIR OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK
BULL'S EYES/QPF BOMBS TO LURE ITS CENTER NORTHEASTWARD...IMPLYING
SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. IT HAS BEEN PERSISTENT IN
SHOWING THIS TYPE OF SOLUTION FOR AT LEAST THREE DAYS NOW. THE
GENERAL FLOW PATTERN FEATURES A BUILDING WARM CORE RIDGE ACROSS
CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A SECOND WEAKER RIDGE NORTH OF THE GREATER
ANTILLES...AND A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
EAST COAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A SLIGHT BREAK AT
500/700 HPA ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE THAT THE COL POINT IN THE STEERING PATTERN IS NEAR
NORTHERN FLORIDA/SOUTHERN GEORGIA...WHICH WOULD FORCE A SYSTEM IN
THE GULF TO STEER INITIALLY NORTH AND ULTIMATELY WEST UNDER THE
PLAINS RIDGE DURING THE LATE SHORT RANGE/MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD.
THERE IS ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN THIS IDEA.

HOWEVER...ONCE THE RIDGE BUILDS...THE LOW COULD EASILY ACCELERATE
WEST/WEST-SOUTHWEST BEGINNING ON SUNDAY SIMILAR TO CLAUDETTE IN
2003 /AND AS ADVERTISED IN THE NON-GFS 12Z GUIDANCE/. THE 12Z
GUIDANCE HAS ALL TRENDED MORE WESTWARD LATE MONDAY SINCE THEIR
PRIOR RUNS. THE ONLY OTHER ANALOGS TO THIS TYPE OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE-TYPE TRACK WERE IN OCTOBER 1938 AND JUNE 1913. THE GLOBAL
ENSEMBLE SPREAD CONTINUES TO WAVER EACH DAY...WITH ABOVE AVERAGE
SPREAD SEEN TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WHILE LOWER THAN NORMAL SPREAD WAS
SEEN TUESDAY AND THURSDAY. WHEN THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS SUCH
VARIABILITY...IT IS UNCLEAR HOW/WHEN TO START ITS WESTWARD
PROGRESSION. THE HURRICANE GUIDANCE BASED ON THE 06Z GFS
/INCLUDING THE 12Z WRF/ MIRRORS THE 06Z GFS...WHICH INCREASES THE
APPARENT MODEL SPREAD WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE PREFERENCE IS FOR A
12Z GEFS MEAN/06Z HWRF COMPROMISE TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE IN THE
LARGE SPREAD WITH BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN ITS ULTIMATE
WESTWARD PROGRESSION/SPEED. THIS KEEPS GOOD CONTINUITY WITH
MEDIUM RANGE AND NHCS 17Z THINKING. CONSULT THE LATEST TROPICAL
WEATHER OUTLOOK FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER /NHC/ FOR ITS
CURRENT STATUS.

[srainhoutx]

HPC afternoon Final Medium Range Update:

FINAL...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE FOR THE FINAL ISSUANCE OF MEDIUM
RANGE FORECASTS. THE 12Z GFS SHIFTED SLOWER THAN ITS 06Z RUN WITH
THE ENERGY EJECTING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DAYS 3-4...WHICH
BOOSTED CONFIDENCE IN USING THE SLOWER 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION EARLY IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD. OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...DETERMINISTIC
MODELS HAVE COME INTO SOME SORT OF AGREEMENT WITH STRENGTHENING A
SURFACE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GULF AND THEN STAIR-STEPPING IT
WESTWARD TOWARDS THE TEXAS COAST...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE 12Z
GFS WHICH TRACKS THE LOW NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH FLORIDA.
HOWEVER...THE LARGE AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN THE 00Z ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
STILL INDICATE A GREAT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM.

WEATHER-WISE ACROSS THE CONUS...
AN AMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGE WILL HEAT THINGS UP OVER THE CENTRAL
U.S....WHILE TROUGHS ANCHORED ALONG THE EAST AND WEST COASTS
SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS PLEASANTLY COOL DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE
PERIOD. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO...HEAVY RAINFALL COULD BE A THREAT ALL ALONG
COASTAL REGIONS FROM TEXAS TO FLORIDA.

[singlemom]

While some models do send it towards Florida, those models are not as trusted especially so close to the gulf when the models like the BAMM are used for deep water analysis if I am not mistaken. Either way we have multiple possibilities where this will go. With the lack of development right now I am leaning towards the west part of the gulf because it will be harder for the trough to pick it up. Still not much organization.

Thanks, Andrew!!

[singlemom]

The HPC has provided some awesome detailed discussions regarding this very complex and complicated monsoonal trough gyre that has been modeled for well over a week. *snip*

Thanks, srain!

[srainhoutx]

Just for grins... the 12Z Experimental FIM solution would not be a good outcome...

[tireman4]

Yeah, not liking the trend, although it is still WAY too early in the game yet.

[Belmer]

Just for grins... the 12Z Experimental FIM solution would not be a good outcome...

Is that putting what looks like a Category 3 hurricane in Galveston by next Friday!?

[Scott747]

Just for grins... the 12Z Experimental FIM solution would not be a good outcome...

Is that putting what looks like a Category 3 hurricane in Galveston by next Friday!?

Key word, 'Experimental.'

I've been following that experimental model suite since the season has started and much like many models it has been all over the place.

Keep in mind this is not the type of system that should deepen rapidly. It's more of a 'like watching paint dry' type of system.

More info on the FIM suite - http://fim.noaa.gov/

[Belmer]

Just for grins... the 12Z Experimental FIM solution would not be a good outcome...

Is that putting what looks like a Category 3 hurricane in Galveston by next Friday!?

Key word, 'Experimental.'

I've been following that experimental model suite since the season has started and much like many models it has been all over the place.

Keep in mind this is not the type of system that should deepen rapidly. It's more of a 'like watching paint dry' type of system.

More info on the FIM suite - http://fim.noaa.gov/

I realized like two minutes after I made that post I was looking at the map wrong and looked over something. But when I saw 'Experimental', I figured it wasn't too reliable. Especially since it's not mentioned too much.

[srainhoutx]

The chatter has increased mainly due to Marine issues after a Conference Call with various NWS and NHC officials:

New Orleans:

.MARINE...
AFTER A COASTAL OFFICE COORDINATION/COLLABORATION CALL FROM KBRO-
KTPA INCLUDING THE TAFB UNIT AND SR ROC...WFO CONCENSUS WAS TO
FOLLOW NHC/HPC COORDINATED LOW PRESSURE POSITIONS THROUGH DAY 5.
UNFORTUNATELY NOT MANY OF THE CONVENTIONAL MODELS DEPICTED A WIND
FIELD SIMILARLY EXCEPT THE NAM12 IN THE SHORT TERM. THE NAM WAS
USED TO INITIATE WIND FIELDS THROUGH DAY3...THEN BLENDING TOWARDS
ECMWF WIND FIELDS THEREAFTER. GULF WAVES WERE THEN GENERATED USING
A WIND/WAVE CONVERSION THEN APPLYING A NEAR COASTAL WAVE TOOL FOR
SHALLOW WAVE AREAS. THIS PRODUCED A MORE BELIEVABLE WIND/WAVE
COMBINATION WHEN COMPARED TO THE WAVEWATCH SOLELY DRIVEN OFF THE
GFS SOLUTION. EASTERLY WINDS SHOULD INCREASE STEADILY TO 20-25 KTS
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 45 KTS AT TIMES
SUNDAY...PARTICULARLY IN THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS. A SLOW
IMPROVEMENT WILL BE INDICATED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK ASSUMING A
WESTWARD DRIFT OF THE SYSTEM AS INDICATED ABOVE. THIS IS SUBJECT
TO CHANGE IF THE SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN ON A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK
FOR LONGER THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED. SEAS ARE INDICATED TO
INCREASE TO 10-13 FEET IN TIME AS THE WINDS INCREASE SUNDAY.



Lake Charles:

THE REAL CHALLENGE AT THIS POINT DURING THE FORECAST IS WHAT TO DO
ABOUT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. NHC IS
STILL GOING WITH A 70 PERCENT CHANCE SO IT IS LIKELY TO FORM PER
THEIR FORECAST. THEREFORE APPROACHED THE FORECAST ASSUMING IT WILL
FORM AND COLLABORATED WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES CONCERNING WINDS AND
WAVES. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE MODELS ALL AGREE ON NORTHWARD MOVEMENT
TOWARDS THE BIG BEND REGION OF FLORIDA THROUGH SUNDAY AROUND 00Z.
THEN THE GFS TAKES THE SYSTEM EASTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE
ATLANTIC. ALL OF THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS DRIFT THE SYSTEM BACK TO
THE WEST AND GIVEN THAT... WENT WITH A COMPROMISE OF THAT SOLUTION.
ONE VERY INTERESTING VERSION IS THE CANADIAN MODEL WHICH DEVELOPS AN
INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE AND AS OF THE LATEST MODEL RUN IT HAS THE
STORM MAKING LANDFALL IN THE TEXAS COAST ALBEIT IS WAY TO EARLY TO
MAKE JUDGMENTS BASED ON JUST ONE MODEL GIVEN THAT NHC HAS YET TO
NAME THE SYSTEM. WINDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS WILL PICK UP ESPECIALLY OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS BEGINNING MONDAY AS THIS STORM BEGINS TO MOVE
TOWARDS THE WEST. RIGHT NOW HAVE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION
THROUGH TOMORROW AT 00Z BUT THAT WILL HAVE TO BE EXAMINED FOR A
POTENTIAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS WINDS AND WAVES BEGIN TO INCREASE.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND COLLABORATE WITH SURROUNDING WFOS AND
NHC REGARDING THIS SYSTEM AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.NEED TO STRESS
THAT THIS SYSTEM HAS NOT YET BEEN NAMED NOR HAVE ANY ADVISORIES BEEN
ISSUED THEREFORE MUCH OF THE GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR PRODUCTS AND
INFORMATION COMING FROM NHC REGARDING ANY AND ALL FUTURE DEVELOPMENT
WITH THIS SYSTEM.

THE OTHER FORECAST CHALLENGE THAT IS IMPORTANT FOR THE AREA IS THE
IMPENDING HEAT WAVE. BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE SREF ARE SHOWING QUITE A
BIT OF HEAT TO MOVE IN DURING THE SUN MON TUES TIME FRAME. WITH THE
HIGH PRESSURE SITTING DIRECTLY ON TOP OF THE REGION EXPECT TEMPS TO
JUMP UP TO TOUCHING THE TRIPLE DIGITS PLATEAU ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. THIS WILL BE CAUSE FOR CONCERN FOR THE
AREA BECAUSE MODELS ARE FORECASTING THERE TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN
THE LOW LEVELS TO KEEP DEW POINTS IN THE 70S. WITH TEMPS
APPROACHING TRIPLE DIGITS AND DEW POINTS THAT HIGH WE COULD BE IN
FOR A HEAT ADVISORY WITH APPARENT TEMPS APPROACHING THE CRITERIA OF
ABOVE 107. WILL NEED TO WAIT FOR BETTER CONSISTENCY WITH FORECASTED
MODELED TEMPS BUT EITHER WAY EXPECT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK TO BE
HOT AND APPROPRIATE SAFETY GUIDELINES NEED TO BE FOLLOWED.

WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINANT EXPECT TO BE MOSTLY PRECIP FREE. IF
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA...AND MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE SUGGEST AS OF THE LATEST MODEL RUNS IT WILL PASS TO THE
SOUTH... THEN EXPECT THERE TO BE A BOOST IN POP DURING THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN EASTERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COULD POTENTIALLY ORGANIZE
AND BEGIN DRIFTING NORTHWARD OVER THE WEEKEND...THEN EVENTUALLY
TURN TO THE WEST AND CROSS THE NORTHERN GULF DURING THE COMING
WEEK. THIS SOLUTION WOULD LEAD TO INCREASING WINDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS
REACHING AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA...SEAS AND TIDES
FOR THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BE ELEVATED IF THIS FORECASTED SOLUTION
IS CORRECT..THEREFORE MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR FURTHER INFORMATION AND DETAILS
ON ANY POTENTIAL TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT.


Houston/Galveston:

.MARINE...
TIDE LEVELS ARE STILL RUNNING 1-1.5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL AND WILL BE
MONITORED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A
CONTINUED LONG FETCH OF MODERATE ENE WINDS ACROSS THE NRN GULF.
NOT EXPECTING MANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES OVER THE WEEKEND THAT WOULD
CAUSE MAJOR CHANGES TO THE LEVELS. ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ALONG
THE BEACHES SHOULD BE RUNNING 1.8-2.0 FEET. SO WE`LL BE JUST BELOW
THE TOTAL 3.7 FEET CRITERIA (ASTRONOMICAL + METEOROLOGICAL) WHEN
WE TYPICALLY SEE SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOOD ISSUES AT THE LOWEST
LOCATIONS. MAY NEED A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH EARLY NEXT WEEK
DEPENDING ON WHAT EVENTUALLY EVOLVES IN THE GULF.

LARGE ELONGATED...AND POORLY ORGANIZED...DISTURBANCE EXTENDING
FROM THE CNTL GULF SOUTHWARD INTO THE YUCATAN AND CARIBBEAN STILL
EXPECTED TO DRIFT NWD OVER THE WEEKEND (MAYBE POSITIONED A COUPLE
OF HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF LA SUNDAY). SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE...BUT THAT AND EVENTUAL TRACK IS STILL UNCLEAR AND
PROBABLY REMAIN THAT WAY UNTIL A GOOD LLVL CIRCULATION IS
IDENTIFIED. SPECIAL THANKS TO NWS SLIDELL WHO ORGANIZED A
CONFERENCE CALL WITH GULF COAST OFFICES AND TAFB TO COORDINATE THE
OVERALL MARINE FCST. WE WILL GENERALLY TREND WITH AN EVENTUAL WWD
TRACK DURING THE EARLY AND MID WEEK PERIODS WHICH WILL INCREASE
WINDS/SEAS OFFSHORE - WHICH RUNS COUNTER TO THE WAVEWATCH III
GUIDANCE (WHICH TAKES THE SYSTEM EWD). WE UNDERSTAND A LOT OF
FOLKS SEE AND USE THIS MODEL ONLINE AND USE AS GUIDANCE SO BE
ADVISED...AND EXPECT SEVERAL CHANGES IN THE FCST BETWEEN NOW AND
MID-LATE NEXT WEEK.

Corpus Christi:

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...OBVIOUSLY MOST OF THIS FCST PD
WL DEPEND LARGELY UPON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF WHAT WL LKLY BECOME THE
FOURTH-NAMED STORM OF THE SEASON ORIGINATING FROM THE SOUTHERN
GULF. THERE REMAINS TWO DISTINCT POSSIBLE TRACKS AS OUTLINED BY THE
GUIDANCE THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE GFS SOLN IS STILL HOLDING ON TO A
MORE NORTHEASTERLY TRACK WHICH WOULD AFFECT FLORIDA. HOWEVER WITH
MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS (ECMWF...CANADIAN...NAM...UKMET...NOGAPS)
NOW INDICATING A MORE WESTERLY TRACK WITH THIS SYSTEM...IT WAS TIME
TO NUDGE THE FCST IN THIS DIRECTION. ALSO THIS WL BETTER MATCH UP
WITH NHC/HPC/TAFB/SURROUNDING WFOS AS WELL. SO DECIDED TO BUMP UP
THE SEAS AND WINDS THROUGH MIDWEEK. FOR NOW...WL ONLY GO AS HIGH AS
8 FT SEAS ARRIVING BY WED WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE BETWEEN SUN AND
TUE AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE EAST. WL BE MORE TEMPERED ON
THE WIND FCST GIVEN THAT THESE ARE DAYS 4-6 OF THE FCST AND DUE TO
LARGE TRACK UNCERTAINTY EVEN WITH THESE WESTERLY-SHIFTING GLOBAL
MODELS. WITH TIDES ALREADY RUNNING JUST OVER 1 FT ABV PREDICTED
LVLS AND DUE TO INCOMING LARGE SWELLS...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND
HIGH SURF WL LKLY BE AN ISSUE BEGINNING BY SUN AND MON. TOO EARLY
AND NOT VERY CONFIDENT AT GOING WITH TOO HIGH OF A POP FOR THE
LATTER PART OF THE FCST. WL PUNT AND MAINTAIN JUST SLIGHT CHC POPS
BUT THESE MAY NEED TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED BY LATER SHIFTS. A
SUBSIDENT AND DRY SYNOPTIC PATTERN WL PREVAIL EITHER WAY THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF THE FCST AS A STRONG MID/UPR RDG AXIS REMAINS ANCHORED
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. WL KEEP HIGHS ON THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE
THROUGH AT LEAST TUE GIVEN THIS PATTERN.

[Scott747]

Is that putting what looks like a Category 3 hurricane in Galveston by next Friday!?

Key word, 'Experimental.'

I've been following that experimental model suite since the season has started and much like many models it has been all over the place.

Keep in mind this is not the type of system that should deepen rapidly. It's more of a 'like watching paint dry' type of system.

More info on the FIM suite - http://fim.noaa.gov/

I realized like two minutes after I made that post I was looking at the map wrong and looked over something. But when I saw 'Experimental', I figured it wasn't too reliable. Especially since it's not mentioned too much.

One reason it's not mentioned is that there isn't anything official about it so you won't see it referred to by any of the official agencies. Funny thing is that a few weeks back I posted a very extended long range FIM run on American (when we initially were looking at something coming out of the EPAC into the BOC) that showed a similar track to what that current FIM run is showing. Intensity however is highly questionable with this monsoonal type of setup.

My chase partner who is currently in Europe has been getting all paranoid because of some of the speculation out there. Just had a quick call to help calm him down. Plenty of time to get a better handle on what eventual 'Debby' becomes.

[srainhoutx]

Knowing Hurricane Josh, I can just imagine that conversation. It's good to see some of our longtime folks joining in on our conversations. One thing that always bring our neighbors back around will be when tropical mischief is brewing in the Gulf. As Scott stated, we will have several days to watch this elongated monsoonal mess...

[skidog38]

whatever becomes of this the storm it will be a very large system.

[Katdaddy]

Yes its great to see some oldtimers back in the forum. This is a very large but disorganized system. It will be interesting to see what develops over the weekend.

[tireman4]

Like I stated before Katdaddy, this is just a mess right now, lol. This weekend will certainly bear watching.

[rnmm]

Up to 80%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE
CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA
LOCATED ABOUT 100 MILES NORTH OF THE NORTHEASTERN TIP OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER DEFINED. SURFACE
PRESSURES ARE STILL FALLING ACROSS THE AREA...AND SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN STEADILY INCREASING OVER MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TODAY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THIS LARGE DISTURBANCE DRIFTS SLOWLY
NORTHWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ALONG THE
UNITED STATES GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HEAVY RAINS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WESTERN CUBA...AND
SOUTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH SATURDAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[tireman4]

Have you seen the 18z HWRF?

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[Katdaddy]

Complex VIS satellite loop over the GOM this evening. A well defined tight LLC is spinning just N of the Yucatan and moving NW
while a mid level circulation is spinning to its SE midway between the Yucatan and W tip of Cuba.