NHC came out with their forecast today.
NOAA releases its forecast for an average number of hurricanes
Robert Detrick, director of NOAA’s Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research, told a press conference at the National Hurricane Center in Miami that NOAA expects expects 9 to 15 named tropical storms with winds faster than 39 mph to form during the June 1-Nov. 30 hurricane season.
NOAA’s forecasters say 4 to 8 of these should grow into 74 mph or stronger hurricanes, and 1 to 3 to become major hurricanes with winds faster than 111 mph.
If the forecasts turn out to be correct, this year would be close to the 1981-2010 30-year hurricane seasonal average of 12.1 named storms, 6.4 hurricanes, and 2.7 major hurricanes.
Gerry Bell, the lead hurricane season forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, said the forecast is based on “competing factors beginning with the fact that we are in an active era that began in 1995 and the possibility of an El Nino forming late in the season.” If an El Nino forms that could mean the season would end with a number of storms at the low end of the range.
NHC: "Near-Normal Hurricane Season ahead"
I suspect that this "burst" of development with Alberto and Invest 94L...will be short lived...and we will have a much calmer June into Mid july...Just my guess.
I don't expect an active season like 2010 and 2011. The only instance were we saw more than two active season back to back was from 2003 to 2005.
June 1968 had three storms form and it was a quiet year. No major hurricanes formed that year. On the other hand, 1961, 1969, 1998, and 2004 started late and ended up being horrible seasons.
June 1968 had three storms form and it was a quiet year. No major hurricanes formed that year. On the other hand, 1961, 1969, 1998, and 2004 started late and ended up being horrible seasons.