June: Onshore Flow Returns With Increasing Gulf Moisture

[weatherguy425]

Hopefully it's not too soon to start a June thread, but with the rest of May looking largely dry and warm...here's to hoping for a very active seabreeze season!!

[gocuse22]

GFS 6Z starts June off hot and maybe a few scattered storms around.

[gocuse22]

Whos ready for a warm June?

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... /page2.gif

[srainhoutx]

The newly upgraded GFS has been very persistent in suggesting a frontal boundary reaching the area around the 31st or June 1st. While it is not out of the question that a frontal boundary can head this far S during late May, the next chance of rain would be from that feature and likely not the tropics. What we will need to watch is if in fact we can get a boundary this far S and stall or wash out near the region. Just perhaps a change in the quiet weather pattern may be ahead as we end May and beginning the month of June. We will see.

[srainhoutx]

The 00Z GFS as well as the 12Z Euro earlier yesterday continue to advertise a weak frontal boundry stalling near the region for Thursday into Friday as a rather deep East Coast trough becomes estblished. In fact the GFS is suggesting a rather unsettled pattern may develop during the first week of June as deep tropical moisture begins to pool across the Western Caribbean/Western Gulf as that stalled boundary lingers and daily storms fire to our W along the Rio Grande. Something to watch as we end the month of May and eyes turn toward the Tropics with the start of June and ENSO neutral conditions take hold. While some are expecting a less active season, we must remember that 'home grown' quick spin up tropical troubles can happen and hopefully folks will remember to follow our updates and discussions in the Hurricane Central Area of our Forum...

[Andrew]

The 00Z GFS as well as the 12Z Euro earlier yesterday continue to advertise a weak frontal boundry stalling near the region for Thursday into Friday as a rather deep East Coast trough becomes estblished. In fact the GFS is suggesting a rather unsettled pattern may develop during the first week of June as deep tropical moisture begins to pool across the Western Caribbean/Western Gulf as that stalled boundary lingers and daily storms fire to our W along the Rio Grande. Something to watch as we end the month of May and eyes turn toward the Tropics with the start of June and ENSO neutral conditions take hold. While some are expecting a less active season, we must remember that 'home grown' quick spin up tropical troubles can happen and hopefully folks will remember to follow our updates and discussions in the Hurricane Central Area of our Forum...

If we can get that ULL to get farther in the gulf it could help with the convection in the gulf.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z GFS has come into better agreement with what the Euro has been suggesting regarding a nice surge of deep tropical moisture a daily sea breeze storms firing off daily beginning next Tuesday. The good thing is it is becoming rather clear that we will not see a return of the same pattern we saw last summer with endless days of excessive heat and not a drop of rain in sight.

[srainhoutx]

Light N winds this morning across most areas with temps in the upper 60's and pleasant drier air overhead should make for a great weekend. Rain chances look to increase by Tuesday with a return flow off the Gulf and some increase in deep tropical moisture setting the stage for daily sea breeze showers/storms. Oh, and welcome to Hurricane Season 2012. Be sure to monitor our Hurricane Central area for updates regarding any future tropical troubles as the summer moves along...

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z GFS continues to advertise and inverted trough and daily sea breeze storms as tropical moisture stream inland across the region with increasing chances of some severe potential further N and W across Texas. We will see...

[srainhoutx]

HGX update this afternoon is a bit more hopeful than the past 6 weeks or so regarding a daily chances of showers/storms. It appears a more typical summer pattern is ahead...hopefully...

THE PATTERN IS FORECAST TO TRANSITION FROM ONE OF WARM AND DRY
OVER THE WEEKEND TO A MORE WET WORK WEEK PATTERN. THE GFS IS NOW
TRENDING MORE WET...IN LINE WITH THE RECENT EURO SOLUTIONS...FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH WEEK`S END. AS OF NOW...MODELS HAVE GEO-HEIGHTS
LOWERING ACROSS TEXAS IN TANDEM WITH HIGHER MOISTURE FLUX. THERE
IS NO DISCERNABLE TRIGGER...SUCH AS AN APPROACHING WESTERN TROUGH...
BUT THERE SEEMS TO BE AMPLE VICINITY VORTICITY TO AT LEAST PLACE
IN 20-30 POPS. COLUMN PROFILES SATURATE UP...WITH LITTLE TO NO
CAPPING...TO SUGGEST THAT THERE WILL BE A FEW DAYS OF MORE (POSSIBLY
DIURNALLY-DRIVEN) ACTIVE WEATHER FROM AROUND TUESDAY ONWARD. NOW
THAT WE ARE OFFICIALLY IN THE 2012 HURRICANE SEASON...WE CAN ENJOY
OUR WEEKEND AND LOOK FORWARD TO MORE RAIN NEXT WEEK...WITH NO EXTENDED
NWP PROGNOSTICATION INDICATING ANY LOW/TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WITHIN
THE GULF.

[srainhoutx]

Saturday looks rather warm with temps flirting with the upper 90's for inland areas. The Euro has trended a tad wetter beginning Tuesday as a surge of deep tropical moisture heads inland and increasing rain chances for Tuesday afternoon into early Thursday. Fingers crossed for those of us on the northern areas that have been more of the 'have nots' in the rainfall department since April.

[Portastorm]

Several Texas NWSFOs talking today about the trough in the East deepening (i.e. backdooring into Texas) and JB has been honking about "wetting rains" this week anywhere east of a line from Lubbock to Victoria. If this verifies and we do see a greater slug of tropical moisture, it could be well for some of us in the rain department. Let's hope so!

[TexasBreeze]

The DFW discussion is interesting and likeable too. Summer of upper lows (2007?) would be nice.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
346 PM CDT SAT JUN 2 2012

.DISCUSSION... A REMNANT MCV FROM CONVECTION LAST NIGHT IN THE PANHANDLE IS NOW NEAR GRAHAM AND CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST. THE AIRMASS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS IS UNSTABLE...BUT SO FAR THE LIFT HAS NOT BEEN STRONG ENOUGH TO OVERCOME WEAK CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNSET ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA. OTHERWISE...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 10-15 MPH WILL BE THE RULE THIS EVENING. DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL TOMORROW WITH UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS RISING AS THE LARGE UPPER CYCLONE IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION PULLS AWAY. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL REACH" onClick="return popup(this, 'notes')">REACH THE MID 90S FOR MOST OF NORTH TEXAS AS WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL HELP SEND A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO NORTH TEXAS FROM THE NORTHEAST BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE FRONT SHOULD STALL OUT AND DISSIPATE OVER THE REGION WED.

TO THE SOUTH OF THE PLAINS RIDGE...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO WITH A 500MB SHEAR AXIS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF TEXAS. MODEL GUIDANCE VARIES QUITE A BIT WITH RESPECT TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS TEXAS MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE ECMWF REMAINS INSISTENT THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL REDEVELOP NORTHWARD AND INTENSIFY OVER CENTRAL TEXAS STARTING MONDAY. THE ECMWF SHOWS THIS UPPER LOW PROVIDING WIDESPREAD RAIN MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS IT SPINS OVER THE AREA. IT CONTINUES TO BE THE ONLY MODEL THAT SHOWS RAIN AS EARLY AS MONDAY...AND THUS WILL KEEP THE MONDAY FORECAST DRY. THE 12Z CANADIAN HAS NOW JUMPED ON BOARD WITH THE STRONG UPPER LOW SOLUTION...BUT IS A DAY SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF. IT KEEPS THE LOW STALLED OVER TEXAS THROUGH FRIDAY...ALSO PRODUCING WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN OF SEVERAL INCHES. THE GFS/UKMET/NAM CONTINUE TO KEEP THE SHEAR AXIS/UPPER LOW WEAK ACROSS TEXAS...AND THEREFORE ARE MUCH LOWER WITH QPF. THE DIFFERENCES IN THE UPPER LOW STRENGTH CAN BE ATTRIBUTED TO WHETHER THE ATMOSPHERE WILL EXPERIENCE WARM-CORE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. THE MID-UPPER LEVEL ATMOSPHERE WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A WARM-CORE LOW TO FORM...BUT THE ONLY INHIBITING FACTOR FOR WARM-CORE LOW INTENSIFICATION IS WHETHER THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY IS HIGH ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN VIGOROUS CONVECTION TO GET THE FEEDBACK LOOP STARTED. SINCE THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS KEEP CONVECTION UNIMPRESSIVE/SCATTERED ON TUESDAY...WILL SIDE WITH THE WEAKER UPPER LOW SOLUTION. WE SHOULD GET A BETTER IDEA TOMORROW WHEN WE GET MORE HI-RES MODELS WITHIN THEIR FORECAST RANGE WHETHER THE ECMWF/CANADIAN ARE ON TO SOMETHING.

FOR THE FORECAST WILL INCREASE POPS TO NEAR 30 PERCENT ON TUESDAY ALONG AND NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH SHOULD BE DRAPED OVER THE CENTRAL CWA. MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP WITH HEATING OF THE DAY WHEN THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE UNSTABLE AND UNCAPPED. WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT...SO CONVECTION WILL NOT HAVE MUCH MOVEMENT AND BE OF THE HIT-MISS VARIETY TYPICAL OF SUMMERTIME. WILL CONTINUE 20 POPS INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH THE AIR MASS REMAINING MOIST/UNSTABLE ENOUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS FOR SPOTTY HIT-MISS CONVECTION. AGAIN...THIS FORECAST ASSUMES THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN WEAK. WITH THE FRONT WASHING OUT AND THE SHEAR AXIS/UPPER LOW MOVING EAST BY FRIDAY...DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW-MID 90S FOR HIGHS THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK...BUT SHOULD COOL A SLIGHTLY WED-THU WITH SOME COOLER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST.

[srainhoutx]

A very complex and complicated forecast ahead for the upcoming work week. Guidance is struggling with an Omega block in the Ohio Valley and several upper lows, one riding NE from Mexico and another riding S (warm core) in the northerly flow around the East Coast trough. Add to the mix a back door stalling boundary and a surge of deep tropical moisture from the W Caribbean/W Gulf and a meandering stagnant upper air pattern with a trough developing across the W and Texas stuck in between, one gets the ingredients coming together for increasing rainfall chances throughout the coming week for the Lone Star State. Sea breeze showers/storms are another feature to monitor as well. This unsettled pattern looks to be rather slow to move E as we head toward next weekend.

[srainhoutx]

HPC Morning Update:

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
816 AM EDT SUN JUN 03 2012

VALID 12Z THU JUN 07 2012 - 12Z SUN JUN 10 2012


WITH MODELS AND ENSEMBLES IN INCREASINGLY ACCEPTABLE AGREEMENT
THRU THE PERIOD WITH THEIR OVERALL PATTERN AND EVOLUTION HAVE USED
A 40/40/20 BLEND OF 00Z GFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS AND A 20 PERCENT
OPERATIONAL ECMWF. THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF USED MAINLY TO SOMEWHAT
LOWER HTS DAY 7 OVER WRN CONUS WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVING
LOWER WEST COAST HTS ALBEIT OVERDONE WITH ITS DEEP CLOSED MID
LEVEL LOW. THIS IS NOT SUPPORTED BY LAGGED AVERAGE FORECASTS AND
THE OPERATIONAL IS AT THE VERY BASE OF ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBER SPREAD.

COOLER THAN AVERAGE CONDITIONS OVER ERN CONUS THRU THE WEEK WITH
BELOW NORMAL MID LEVEL HTS. MODIFICATION EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND
TOWARDS OR ABOVE AVERAGE AS THE NEG HT ANOMALIES SHIFT SEAWARD AND
HTS RISE FROM THE WEST. ABOVE AVG TEMPS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
EXPAND EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND MS VALLEY TO THE
APPCHNS AS MID LEVEL HTS RISE. A MEAN TROF PERSISTS ALONG THE WEST
COAST WITH RELOADING POTENTIAL.

WET ALONG THE GULF COAST STATES AT THE SRN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES.
FAIRLY STRONG BAROCLINIC CLASH HERE WITH A STRONG PW BOUNDARY.
HIGH PW VALUES RETURN TO ALONG THE GULF COAST INTO NRN FL BY THE
WEEKEND AND EXPAND INTO COASTAL TX AND LA. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL THRU MUCH OF THIS PERIOD NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES.

HIGH PWS VALUES ALSO FORECAST BY GUIDANCE ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
BOUNDARY MOVING FROM WRN MT THRU THE DAKOTAS MID WEEK

SPC HIGH FIRE WX DANGER CONTS DAYS 3 AND 4 ERN NV INTO NRN AZ AND
UT. SEE SPC OUTLOOK. A REPEAT OF THIS SITUATION APPEARS VERY
POSSIBLE BY NEXT WEEKEND IN THE SAME AREA.
ROSENSTEIN

[weatherguy425]

GFS seems to still be suffering from a lack of consistency. 12z still shows a similar set-up to its previous runs, but hold off precipitation chances (locally) until Thursday or so. Also, is much drier in the longer range, It doesn't seem to really be grasping the amount of moisture in the area combined with the daily seabreeze boundary very well though. Guess time will tell.

[srainhoutx]

I am a bit more inclined to believe what the 12Z Euro is suggesting. The HPC mentioned that the GFS is suffering from convective feedback issues during day 1-2, and they (HPC) keep the frontal boundary across the region into the coming weekend.

[srainhoutx]

I'll also add that the 12Z Euro is hinting of a weak surface low developing across the Middle TX Coast along the stalled boundary. The 12Z NAM, while it is certainly not a tropical model, did suggest a somewhat similar situation in the longer range of that model. We will see.

[srainhoutx]

I'll also add that the 12Z Euro is hinting of a weak surface low developing across the Middle TX Coast along the stalled boundary. The 12Z NAM, while it is certainly not a tropical model, did suggest a somewhat similar situation in the longer range of that model. We will see.

[weatherguy425]

Interesting tid-bit out of DFW's afternoon discussion, though the formation of a secondary low along the middle Texas coast could definitely throw a kink in this.

THIS PATTERN RESEMBLES A REX BLOCK
AND THUS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE. YESTERDAY THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS WERE RAISING CONCERNS FOR HEAVY RAIN
WHEN THEY SHOWED THE UPPER LOW ACQUIRE WARM CORE CHARACTERISTICS
AND STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY. TODAY ALL MODELS KEEP THE UPPER LOW
WEAK...CONVECTION GENERALLY SCATTERED...AND QPF LOW. THE SYSTEM
WILL LACK RICH MOISTURE...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER BETWEEN 1.5 AND
1.75 INCHES...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE UPPER LOW WEAK.