June: Onshore Flow Returns With Increasing Gulf Moisture

[srainhoutx]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1139
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1212 PM CDT TUE JUN 12 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...TX...LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 380...

VALID 121712Z - 121815Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 380
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG WINDS AND SOME HAIL WILL
PERSIST ACROSS VALID PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA.

DISCUSSION...LOOSELY ORGANIZED LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
SPREAD SOUTH INTO SWRN LA AND EXTREME ERN TX EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
STRONG INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE SWN FLANK OF THE SYSTEM
WHERE RECENT INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE VIGOR HAS BEEN NOTED OVER TYLER
COUNTY TX. ELSEWHERE...STORMS HAVE BECOME OUTFLOW DOMINANT ACROSS
SWRN LA WHERE WIND SHIFT HAS TRACKED SOUTH AT ABOUT 26KT AHEAD OF
THE DEEPER CONVECTION TO ITS NORTH. OVERALL...SEVERE THREATS IN THE
FORMS OF HAIL/WIND OF WILL PROBABLY REMAIN QUITE ISOLATED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WATCH VALID TIME. LOCAL HEAVY RAIN IS CERTAINLY A
CONCERN GIVEN SLOW MOVEMENT AND TRAINING OF STORMS IN A VERY MOIST
ENVIRONMENT.

..CARBIN.. 06/12/2012


ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...

[srainhoutx]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1256 PM CDT TUE JUN 12 2012

TXZ179-121845-
POLK TX-
1256 PM CDT TUE JUN 12 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR POLK COUNTY UNTIL 145 PM CDT...

AT 1252 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS
TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR CORRIGAN...OR 14 MILES SOUTH
OF DIBOLL...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PEAS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CORRIGAN AND SEVEN OAKS.

[srainhoutx]

I'm getting a bit more hopeful with the track of the N Central Texas developing MCS. We'll need to keep an eye on that as the afternoon wears on.

[srainhoutx]

Afternoon e-mail from Jeff:

Severe thunderstorms erupting over our northern counties at present time along old outflow boundary from this morning complex over LA. At the same time upstream thunderstorm complex over NW TX has been growing in intensity and size and SPC has issued a severe thunderstorm watch to cover this incoming activity. Based on current trends, expect thunderstorms to affect many areas north of I-10 and possibly south of I-10 from now through the mid evening hours. Severe threat will be based on damaging winds and large hail in this strongly unstable air mass. Based on current trends the more aggressive meso models showing more widespread development may have been on the right track for today.



Severe Thunderstorm Watch and Radar Overlay:

[redneckweather]

Once again it looks like most of the showers/t-storms will stay east of our area. Maybe we will get lucky and that line north of Waco will move into our area later on. Don't hold your breath though.

[srainhoutx]

TXZ178-122000-
SAN JANCINTO TX-
210 PM CDT TUE JUN 12 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL SAN JANCINTO COUNTY
UNTIL 300 PM CDT...

AT 208 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS
TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF COLDSPRING...OR
17 MILES WEST OF LIVINGSTON...MOVING SOUTH AT 5 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF DIMES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SHEPHERD AND COLDSPRING.

[srainhoutx]

From NESDIS:

SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13 1815Z RUMINSKI
.
LOCATION...TEXAS...
.
ATTN WFOS...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...SJT...
ATTN RFCS...WGRFC...
.
EVENT...HEAVY RAIN EVENT SETTING UP FOR EAST TEXAS
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...LATEST STLT IMAGERY SHOWING TWO
AREAS OF ACTIVE CD TOPPED CNVTN NR KSEP/KMWL AND NEAR KJAS WITH WELL
DEFINED BOUNDARY BTWN THEM. CNVTN NR KSEP/KMWL ALSO SHOWING CYCLONIC
ROTATION IN THE LOW LEVEL CU FIELD WHICH IS AIDING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE. LATEST GOES DERIVED SOUNDER PRODUCTS SHOW CNVTN IS FIRING
ALG AXIS OF HIGHEST PW VALUES (1.75" TO 2") WITH VERY HIGH CAPE (ARND
5000J/KG) AND DIMINISHING CINH. CNVTN IS BACKBUILING INTO POLK/TRINITY
ALG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONT THRU THE AFTN/EVE
AND MERGE WITH CNVTV COMPLEX TO THE W AS IT SHIFTS TO THE E. EXPECT
HEAVY RAIN AREA ALG AN ERATH TO POLK AXIS WITH RAINFALL AMNTS OF 2.0"
TO 2.5"/HR PSBL UNDER CNVTV CORES.
.
AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION THREAT AREA
SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY
10-15 MINUTES.
.
SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1900-2200Z...MEDIUM HIGH CONFIDENCE FACTOR
IN SHORT
TERM OUTLOOK...EXPECT CNVTV LN FROM HOOD TO BROWN COUNTIES TO CONT
PROPAGATING TO THE E WITH CNVTN FILLING IN ALG OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ON
NORTHERN FLANK ALG A HOOD TO HOUSTON AXIS. WITH PSBLY OF REPEAT CNVTN
ALNG THIS LN LOCALIZED 3 HR RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3-4" PSBL.

[srainhoutx]

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0301 PM CDT TUE JUN 12 2012

VALID 122000Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE HIGH PLAINS
SWD TO THE GULF COAST...

CURRENT OUTLOOK REMAINS GENERALLY ON TRACK GIVEN CURRENT AND
EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF SVR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SLGT RISK ACROSS WEST TEXAS TO ACCOUNT FOR
CONVECTIVE TRENDS IN THE TRANS PECOS REGION.

...SRN PLAINS...
TSTMS DVLPG OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
CO/NORTH-CENTRAL NM WILL E/SE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES. 12Z MESOSCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THESE
STORMS...AS WELL AS ADDITIONAL TSTMS THAT MAY DEVELOP OVER W TX
THROUGH EVENING...WILL MERGE INTO ONE OR MORE FORWARD-PROPAGATING
SVR MCS/S POSING A DAMAGING WIND THREAT AND MOVE SEWD ACROSS AREAS
FROM THE TX PANHANDLE SWD INTO CENTRAL TX OVERNIGHT.

TSTMS DEVELOPING NORTH OF MARFA ARE EXPECTED TO FURTHER INTENSIFY IN
THE PRESENCE OF 40 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR
MASS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.


...NRN PLAINS...
REF MCD #1141 FOR SHORT-TERM CONVECTIVE TRENDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE
CO/WRN NEB/SWRN SD.

THINKING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS IS UNCHANGED FROM
PREVIOUS OUTLOOK.

..BUNTING.. 06/12/2012

[srainhoutx]

HGX issues Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Liberty, Montgomery & San Jacinto Counties

[MontgomeryCoWx]

It looks like central and Eastern Montgomery County are going to get a good dumping.

My house looks to be right in that path if things keep backbuilding like they are. I'm right off 336 and 3083.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

HGX issues Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Liberty, Montgomery & San Jacinto Counties

WOOOOO HOOOO... LETS ROCK N ROLL!

[srainhoutx]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1144
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0328 PM CDT TUE JUN 12 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 381...

VALID 122028Z - 122130Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 381
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...STORM COMPLEX SOUTH OF DFW WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE
ESEWD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND MAY EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH
SLOWER-MOVING CLUSTER OF STORMS ALONG SWRN FLANK OF RESIDUAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHEAST TX.

DISCUSSION...WIDESPREAD DEEP CONVECTION SOUTH OF DFW AREA HAS BEEN
SLOW TO ORGANIZE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS AIR MASS TO ITS SOUTH HAS
BECOME STRONGLY UNSTABLE. ANOTHER AREA OF STRONG TO OCCASIONALLY
SEVERE STORMS PERSISTS ON THE FLANK OF A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
TO THE NW OF HOUSTON. GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF AVAILABLE INSTABILITY
/MLCAPE 2500-3000 J PER KG/ AND BELT OF 25-30KT MID LEVEL FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECT CONTINUING CHANCE OF HAIL AND LOCALLY
STRONG WINDS. GREATER POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
MAY EVOLVE AS STORMS BEGIN TO MERGE AND COLD POOL DEEPENS ACROSS THE
SERN PORTION OF THE WATCH LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.

..CARBIN.. 06/12/2012


ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...

[srainhoutx]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
334 PM CDT TUE JUN 12 2012

TXZ177-198-199-122130-
WALKER TX-GRIMES TX-MONTGOMERY TX-
334 PM CDT TUE JUN 12 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN WALKER...
NORTHEASTERN GRIMES AND NORTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTIES UNTIL 430
PM CDT...

AT 329 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS
TRACKING SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15
MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF DIMES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WILLIS...PANORAMA VILLAGE...NEW WAVERLY AND MONTGOMERY.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

That severe cell in Eastern Montgomery has some COLD tops

[Kludge]

I think we're about to get squished between these two blobs...

[srainhoutx]

Code: Select all

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
     SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 384
     NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
     355 PM CDT TUE JUN 12 2012
     
     SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 384 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
     FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
     
     TXC001-015-027-039-041-051-071-089-099-145-157-161-167-185-201-
     225-289-291-293-309-313-331-339-349-395-407-471-473-477-481-
     130300-
     /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0384.120612T2055Z-120613T0300Z/
     
     TX 
     .    TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
     
     ANDERSON             AUSTIN              BELL                
     BRAZORIA             BRAZOS              BURLESON            
     CHAMBERS             COLORADO            CORYELL             
     FALLS                FORT BEND           FREESTONE           
     GALVESTON            GRIMES              HARRIS              
     HOUSTON              LEON                LIBERTY             
     LIMESTONE            MADISON             MCLENNAN            
     MILAM                MONTGOMERY          NAVARRO             
     ROBERTSON            SAN JACINTO         WALKER              
     WALLER               WASHINGTON          WHARTON             
     
     
     GMZ335-130300-
     /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0384.120612T2055Z-120613T0300Z/
     
     CW 
     
     .    ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
     
     GALVESTON BAY 
     
     ATTN...WFO...FWD...HGX...

[unome]

I would like this - it appears to be the only precip in my area for the next 5 days

[Ptarmigan]

Hopefully the rain will hold up. Talk about unpredictable weather.

[tireman4]

30 percent huh? Humm.....

[srainhoutx]

HGX issues Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Harris & Montgomery Counties