EPAC Season 2012: Late September/October Development

[srainhoutx]

96E continues to improve in structure and is now a Mandarin. The GFS is also suggesting a second stronger Hurricane developing in the longer range as a future Daniel heads W...

[srainhoutx]

It appears 96E is well on the way to becoming a depression, if it isn't already. The 12Z suite still suggests an even stronger cyclone developing next week just W of the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042012
200 AM PDT WED JUL 04 2012

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS...NO THREAT TO LAND...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.3N 105.5W
ABOUT 470 MI...755 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DANIEL ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042012
800 AM PDT THU JUL 05 2012

...DEPRESSION BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE
EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 110.5W
ABOUT 600 MI...970 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS

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TROPICAL STORM DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042012
200 PM PDT THU JUL 05 2012

DANIEL HAS BEEN INTENSIFYING DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. VISIBLE
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT BANDING FEATURES ARE BECOMING MORE PROMINENT
ALONG WITH A RATHER SYMMETRIC OUTFLOW PATTERN. A BLEND OF THE
TAFB/SAB SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS GIVES AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50
KT. FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WHILE
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE REMAINS UNDER LIGHT SHEAR AND OVER WARM WATER.
RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY...WITH THE SHIPS INDEX
GIVING A 26 PERCENT CHANCE OF THAT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS RAISED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES
NEAR THE SHIPS MODEL. IN A FEW DAYS...DANIEL WILL LIKELY BE MOVING
OVER COOLER WATERS AND INTO A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERIC
ENVIRONMENT...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN WEAKENING.

DANIEL IS MOVING A LITTLE FASTER AND MORE TOWARD THE WEST...WITH AN
ESTIMATE OF 280/11. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS WELL CLUSTERED ON A
TRACK TOWARD THE WEST DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A RIDGE
BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT OUTLIER
IS THE ECMWF...WHICH HAS SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE. WITH
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE CONSENSUS AIDS...THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS
BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...ALTHOUGH A LITTLE FASTER
THAN BEFORE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/2100Z 14.2N 111.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 14.5N 113.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 14.8N 115.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 07/0600Z 15.1N 117.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 07/1800Z 15.3N 119.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 08/1800Z 15.7N 124.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 09/1800Z 16.0N 130.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 10/1800Z 16.5N 136.0W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[srainhoutx]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052012
200 PM PDT SAT JUL 07 2012

BANDING FEATURES HAVE BEEN INCREASING NEAR AND TO THE WEST OF THE
CENTER OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH OF MEXICO. VISIBLE IMAGES ALSO INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED. THUS...THE LOW IS NOW BEING
CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...AND GIVEN AN INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 30 KT BASED ON A T2.0 FROM TAFB.

THE ENVIRONMENT AROUND THE DEPRESSION IS QUITE FAVORABLE FOR
STRENGTHENING WITH VERY WARM SSTS AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY...WITH THE SHIPS
INDEX INDICATING A 42 PERCENT CHANCE OF THAT OCCURRING. IT IS
PUZZLING WHY THE GFDL/HWRF DO NOT SHOW MUCH STRENGTHENING WITH THIS
CYCLONE GIVEN SUCH A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT...AND THE NHC FORECAST
IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION GUIDANCE AND THE
SHIPS MODEL. COOLER WATERS SHOULD CAUSE A WEAKENING TREND IN ABOUT
FIVE DAYS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/13. A LARGE RIDGE OVER MEXICO
AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC SHOULD STEER THE DEPRESSION GENERALLY
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IN A FEW
DAYS TIME...SOME OF THE MODELS WEAKEN THE RIDGE AROUND 115W...WHICH
COULD RESULT IN A SOMEWHAT SLOWER AND MORE POLEWARD MOTION OF THE
CYCLONE. THE MODEL SPREAD IS FAIRLY LARGE AT LONG RANGE...AND THUS
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM THE TRACK MODEL
CONSENSUS...TVCN.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 9.9N 101.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 10.4N 103.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 08/1800Z 11.1N 106.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 09/0600Z 11.8N 108.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 09/1800Z 12.5N 110.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 10/1800Z 13.7N 114.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 11/1800Z 15.0N 118.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 12/1800Z 16.0N 121.5W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$

[srainhoutx]

HURRICANE EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052012
800 AM PDT MON JUL 09 2012

OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...EMILIA HAS STRENGTHENED RAPIDLY FROM A
CATEGORY ONE TO A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE. ALTHOUGH A RAPID
INTENSIFICATION EPISODE HAD BEEN ANTICIPATED...SPECIFYING THE
PRECISE TIMING OF THIS EVENT IS ALWAYS DIFFICULT. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 85 KT IS BASED ON A BLEND OF SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND RECENT ADT ESTIMATES
SUGGEST THAT EMILIA MIGHT BE STRONGER. HOWEVER THE EYE HAS BECOME
LESS WELL-DEFINED ON RECENT IR IMAGES...SO IT IS PROBABLY BEST TO
BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE ON THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE AT THIS TIME.
EMILIA SHOULD REMAIN OVER WARM WATERS AND IN RELATIVELY LOW
VERTICAL SHEAR FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW CHANNEL TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST OF THE HURRICANE. ADDITIONAL RAPID STRENGTHENING SEEMS
LIKELY...AND THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS IS ABOVE ALL OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. ASSUMING AN EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE WILL BEGIN WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO...THE
INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO LEVEL OFF AND SLOWLY DECREASE IN 24-36
HOURS. AS ALWAYS...HOWEVER...OUR ABILITY TO PREDICT TROPICAL
CYCLONE INTENSITY CHANGE IS QUITE LIMITED.

EMILIA CONTINUES ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AND THE CURRENT
MOTION IS ABOUT 290/10. THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FOR THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE. A
MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD
MAINTAIN THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
WITH A MORE WESTWARD TRACK LIKELY NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE
AND CLOSE TO THE ECMWF MODEL TRACK PREDICTION. THIS IS A LITTLE TO
THE SOUTH OF THE LATEST GFS SOLUTION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/1500Z 12.6N 109.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 13.0N 111.4W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 10/1200Z 13.6N 113.4W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 11/0000Z 14.1N 115.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 11/1200Z 14.6N 117.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 12/1200Z 15.4N 120.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 13/1200Z 16.3N 124.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 14/1200Z 17.0N 129.5W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[srainhoutx]

It appears the a TD or even TS Kristy is forming about 200 miles SSW of Manzanillo, MX this morning and that tropical moisture may add to our sensible weather here in Texas over the next 5-7 days...

[srainhoutx]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112012
800 AM PDT WED SEP 12 2012

THE LOW PRESSURE AREA THAT HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD SOUTH OF
THE COAST OF MEXICO HAS DEVELOPED ENOUGH ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO BE
CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE POSITION OF THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER IS UNCERTAIN...AND IT IS A BLEND BETWEEN ASCAT DATA HOURS
AGO...AN AMSU-B PASS AT 1002 UTC...AND RECENT VISIBLE PICTURES.

THE CLOUD PATTERN...ALTHOUGH LARGE...DOES NOT HAVE ORGANIZED BANDING
FEATURES YET...BUT THE OUTFLOW IS BECOMING ESTABLISHED IN ALL
QUADRANTS. BOTH GLOBAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS FORECAST AN INCREASE
IN THE SHEAR FAVORING ONLY SOME STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. BEYOND THAT TIME...THE CIRCULATION WILL BE MOVING OVER
COOLER WATERS...AND WEAKENING SHOULD THEN BEGIN.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ALSO UNCERTAIN...AND THE BEST ESTIMATE IS
WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS. THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED
SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST. THIS
STEERING PATTERN SHOULD FAVOR A CONTINUATION OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST
MOTION THROUGH 5 DAYS WITHOUT A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN FORWARD
SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS
AND HEAVILY BIASED TO THE ECMWF AND THE GFS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/1500Z 16.7N 106.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 13/0000Z 17.1N 107.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 13/1200Z 17.7N 109.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 14/0000Z 18.2N 110.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 14/1200Z 19.0N 112.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 15/1200Z 21.0N 117.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 16/1200Z 23.0N 121.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 17/1200Z 25.0N 125.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[srainhoutx]

TROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112012
200 PM PDT WED SEP 12 2012

SATELLITE IMAGES AND MICROWAVE DATA SHOW THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS
BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED WITH A CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING
AROUND THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SIDE OF THE CENTER. BASED ON ASCAT
RETRIEVALS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 40 KNOTS. KRISTY ONLY
HAS A COUPLE OF DAYS WITHIN RELATIVELY LOW SHEAR BEFORE THE
CIRCULATION MOVES OVER COOLER WATER. THE NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR A
GRADUAL STRENGTHENING DURING THESE TWO DAYS AS SUGGESTED BY THE
STATISTICAL MODEL LGEM. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...KRISTY
SHOULD HAVE BECOME A REMNANT LOW.

THE CENTER BECAME MORE VISIBLE IN MICROWAVE AND CONVENTIONAL IMAGERY
TODAY...AND IT WAS LOCATED A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE NORTH THAN
PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS. KRISTY IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE FLOW SOUTH OF A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH IS FORECAST
TO PERSIST. THIS PATTERN SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN FORWARD
SPEED. ACTUALLY...THERE IS NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST
SINCE THE GFDL AND THE GFS ARE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RATHER
WIDE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...AND THE HWRF AND THE ECMWF ARE ON THE
SOUTHERN SIDE. THE NHC FORECAST WAS ADJUSTED A LITTLE BIT
NORTHWARD FROM THIS MORNING BASED ON THE INITIAL LOCATION...BUT IN
GENERAL IS BIASED TOWARD THE ECMWF/HWRF SOLUTION.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/2100Z 18.2N 106.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 13/0600Z 19.0N 108.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 13/1800Z 20.0N 109.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 14/0600Z 21.0N 111.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 14/1800Z 21.5N 112.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 15/1800Z 23.5N 116.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 16/1800Z 25.0N 121.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 17/1800Z 26.0N 122.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER AVILA