EPAC Season 2012: Late September/October Development

[srainhoutx]

The Euro is suggesting TC development near the Gulf of Tehuanepec in the medium to longer range. TC genesis guidance is rather bullish on development within that region as well.

[srainhoutx]

HPC:

WRN NORTH AMERICAN HEMISPHERE TROPICS CONT TO BE BASICALLY
INACTIVE AT THIS TIME AS SEEN BY CHI VELOCITY POTENTIAL ANOMALIES
INDICATING UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS. THIS MAY WELL CHANGE IN A WEEK
TO 10 DAYS AS INDICES SHOW AN INCREASE AS THE SOUTH AMERICAN
MONSOON ACTIVITY SHIFTS NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL AMERICA AND
SOUTHERN MEXICO WITH BETTER CONDITIONS OVER THE WRN CARRIBEAN AND
ESPECIALLY THE TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC WHICH IS TYPICAL JUNE
CLIMATOLOGY. LONGER TERM RUNS OF GFS CONT TO SHOW AN INCREASE OF
DEEP SERLY FLOW THRU THE WRN CARRIBEAN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO
WITH A RETURN OF MORE WESTERLY FLOW ALONG 10N AT H850 PRODUCING A
MORE LARGE SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN ALSO INCREASING MORE
FAVORABLE LONGER TERM TROPICAL EAST PAC CONDITIONS.

[srainhoutx]

Guidance continues to advertise TC genesis near the Gulf of Tehuantepec in the 7-10 day range. There are indications that the MJO will be more favorable in this time frame and the HPC suggests Chi forecast are condusive for tropical formation during the end of June as well...

[srainhoutx]

Oh my....

[srainhoutx]

The GFS as well as the HPC are suggesting things may well become active across the EPAC...

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
352 AM EDT FRI JUN 08 2012

VALID 12Z TUE JUN 12 2012 - 12Z FRI JUN 15 2012

POSITIVE 500 HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ACROSS NORTHWEST CANADA WITH
BUILDING RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC ARE EXPECTED TO LEAD
TO RENEWED WESTERN TROUGHING LATE NEXT WEEK. DOWNSTREAM RIDGING
IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE MIDWEST WITH RESIDUAL ENERGY ALOFT
LINGERING OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST. A FAVORABLY-PLACED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE ACROSS NORTHWEST MEXICO SHOULD LEAD TO A COUPLE TROPICAL
CYCLONE ATTEMPTS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC DURING THE NEXT
WEEK...AS ADVERTISED BY THE SUNY-ALBANY/ROUNDY TROPICAL CYCLONE
PROBABILITIES DURING LATE MAY. FOR THE MOST PART...THE
DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHARE THESE IDEAS. THE 00Z
CANADIAN WAS A STRONG OUTLIER IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WHILE THE
00Z GFS SHOWED THE WEAKEST SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THIS AREA. TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY...USED A 40/30/30 COMPROMISE OF THE
00Z UKMET/00Z GFS/00Z ECMWF THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE USING A 50/50
BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS/00Z ECMWF THEREAFTER TO DEAL WITH
UNCERTAINTIES NEAR THE EAST COAST LATE NEXT WEEK.

ROTH

[srainhoutx]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SAT JUN 9 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF MANZANILLO MEXICO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[srainhoutx]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SUN JUN 10 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED
ABOUT 650 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO CONTINUE TO
SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY
CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD
AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[srainhoutx]

Two new INVEST features in the EPAC...94E offshore of Costa Rica and 95E W of the Gulf of Tehuantepec...right on cue, the monsoonal trough is responding to the approaching MJO pulse...

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z Euro suggests a rapidly developing 94E making landfall near the Gulf of Tehuantepec by Friday/Saturday...

[srainhoutx]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT WED JUN 13 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 375 MILES SOUTH OF THE BORDER OF GUATEMALA AND EL
SALVADOR HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. THIS
LOW HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD
AT 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

2. A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS DISTURBANCE
IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES LITTLE. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[srainhoutx]

RECON has been tasked to take a look see at 94E...

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0930 AM EDT WED JUN 132012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 14/1100Z TO 15/1100Z JUN 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-026

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: FIX OF A POSSIBLE DEVELOPING
HURRICANE AT 15/1800Z NEAR 13.5N 95.5W

[srainhoutx]

12Z Tracks & Intensity Guidance

[srainhoutx]

Convection is beginning to increase near the 'center' of 94E. Upper level anticyclonic conditions are improving as well. I suspect we will see the NHC increase chances of development later today.

[Ptarmigan]

The East Pacific cloud region looks like a monsoonal trough.

[srainhoutx]

I would not be surprised to see TS or Hurricane Carlotta during the day tomorrow. My hunch is there are chances of very rapid intensification for the next 48 hours before making landfall in the Gulf of Tehuantepec/S Mexico Region. Should DMAX bring deep convection near the center overnight, a Major Hurricane may not be out of the question prior to landfall, IMO.

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_ep942012_ep032012.ren
FSTDA
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201206140032
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT WED JUN 13 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 360 MILES SOUTH OF THE BORDER OF MEXICO AND GUATEMALA
HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS
SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY OR THURSDAY
AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE. A TROPICAL STORM
OR HURRICANE WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF MEXICO BY THURSDAY MORNING.

2. A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY
REMAINS DISORGANIZED...AND DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS
DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES LITTLE.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032012
500 AM PDT THU JUN 14 2012

...CARLOTTA STRENGTHENING...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY
FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.6N 93.4W
ABOUT 405 MI...650 KM SSE OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
ABOUT 600 MI...965 KM SE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...70 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARRA DE TONALA TO PUNTA MALDONADO

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE
WATCH AREA LATER THIS MORNING.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.4 WEST. CARLOTTA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH
THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...70 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND CARLOTTA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY
THE TIME THE CENTER NEARS THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES. A
SHIP NEAR THE CENTER OF CARLOTTA RECENTLY REPORTED A PRESSURE OF
1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY
MORNING.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

RECON Schedule:

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0915 AM EDT THU JUN 14 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 15/1100Z TO 16/1100Z JUN 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-027

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM CAROLTTA
FLIGHT ONE --TEAL 75--
A. 15/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0103E CARLOTTA
C. 15/1315Z
D. 13.9N 96.2W
E. 15/1700Z TO 15/2100Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.

[srainhoutx]

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 325/8. CARLOTTA IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED BY
A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND A SMALL
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO THE WEST OF THE
CYCLONE. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THIS PATTERN TO PERSIST FOR
48 HR OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS EVOLUTION SHOULD CAUSE CARLOTTA TO MOVE
GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD FOR 36-48 HR...FOLLOWED BY A MORE WESTWARD
MOTION. THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD SINCE THE LAST
ADVISORY AND IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT CARLOTTA SHOULD TRACK NEAR
OR ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM 36-72 HR. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK
IS ALSO SHIFTED TO THE WEST...BUT LIES ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. AFTER 72 HR...THE MEXICAN RIDGE IS FORECAST
TO WEAKEN AS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THIS SHOULD LEAVE THE CYCLONE IN AN AREA OF WEAK STEERING
CURRENTS WITH A VERY SLOW MOTION.


CARLOTTA IS CURRENTLY IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND OVER 30C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THESE CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST NOW CALLS
FOR CARLOTTA TO REACH AN INTENSITY OF 80 KT IN 48 HR. THE RAPID
INTENSIFICATION INDEX OF THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS A 50-60 PERCENT
CHANCE OF 25-KT STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 24 HR...AND ABOUT A
25 PERCENT CHANCE OF 40-KT STRENGTHENING...SO THE EARLY PART OF THE
CURRENT FORECAST COULD BE CONSERVATIVE. AFTER 48 HR...THE
INTENSITY IS LIKELY TO BE CONTROLLED BY HOW CLOSE THE CENTER IS TO
THE COAST. IF CARLOTTA MOVES INLAND...IT COULD DISSIPATE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO. EVEN IF IT STAYS OFFSHORE...IT IS EXPECTED TO
BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO INTERACT WITH THE MOUNTAINS AND WEAKEN AS SHOWN
BY THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS...AND THAT IS THE SCENARIO USED IN THE
INTENSITY FORECAST.

[srainhoutx]

Carlotta is very close to closing off an 'eyewall'. I suspect the NHC will upgrade to a Hurricane with the next full package Advisory.

EP, 03, 2012061512, , BEST, 0, 136N, 956W, 65, 988, HU,

[ticka1]

so carlotta will not move into the gom?

[srainhoutx]

so carlotta will not move into the gom?

No. What is likely to occur is some vorticity from Carlotta will be drawn N into the Bay of Campeche and this is what the models are 'sniffing' on our side of the Basin. It is not unheard of. Past history suggests that TS Allison 1989 and TS Hermine 2010 had their origins in the EPAC.