2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season General Discussions

[srainhoutx]

That feature was showing up about a week ago. The Euro is beginning to sniff it as well so it may be more than a typical SW Caribbean GFS fantasy storm. That said it doesn't look purely tropical and the monsoonal trough that we often see beginning to take shape this time of year along the South American Coast could be what the models are seeing. Time will tell.

[wxman57]

GFS does this every spring. I'm not very concerned, particularly since it's in the 12-15 day range.

[srainhoutx]

Phil, the met grad student on another forum, and Dr. Knabb both think the resolution chop is leading to development, and as would happen late May, development, if any, would be more likely in the EastPac.

90E has been classified...

[srainhoutx]

92L is way out in the E Central Atlantic for those that are interested...

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
140 PM EDT SAT MAY 12 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A NON-TROPICAL LOW OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC ABOUT 400 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN AZORES ISLANDS HAS DEVELOPED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY NEAR THE CENTER DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES LITTLE
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THE LOW HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ADDITIONAL SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER
OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY OR SUNDAY...IF
NECESSARY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Katdaddy]

The 2012 Hurricane Season is fast approaching and now is the time to be ready.

Here is what Jeff Masters at WeatherUnderground has to say about Invest 92L:

An interesting and surprising hybrid low pressure system with both tropical and extratropical characteristics has formed over the far Eastern Atlantic, about 400 miles southwest of the southern Azores Islands. This low, designated Invest 92L by NHC today, has developed an impressive amount of heavy thunderstorm activity near its center, despite the fact that it is over cold ocean waters with temperatures of 66°F (19°C.) This is well below the 26°C usually needed for a tropical storm to form. However, there is quite cold air aloft, so the temperature difference between the surface the upper levels has been great enough to create sufficient instability for 92L to organize. Wind shear is a moderate 15 - 20 knots, and satellite estimates of 92L's winds were 63 mph at 1:45 pm EDT Saturday, according to NOAA/NESDIS. NHC estimated that 92L had top winds of 50 mph at 2 pm EDT Saturday.


NHC is giving 92L a 40% chance of developing into a named storm by Monday. They will be reluctant to name it Alberto unless the storm can maintain it's current level of heavy thunderstorm activity for at least 6 - 12 hours. The storm's heavy thunderstorms have weakened some during the afternoon, making it less likely NHC will be inclined to name it; the fact that 92L is over waters of 66°F (19°C) hurts its chances. The coldest waters I've seen a tropical storm form in were 19°C, during Tropical Storm Grace of 2009. Grace holds the record for being the farthest northeast forming tropical cyclone in the Atlantic basin. Like 92L, Grace also formed near the Azores Islands, but in early October. The coldest waters I've seen a hurricane form in were 22°C, for Hurricane Epsilon of 2005. Latest guidance from the computer models show 92L meandering to the south of the Azores through Monday, then beginning a slow motion towards the northeast by Tuesday.

[wxman57]

It appears to be fading now. No name for this one. Hopefully we have to wait until August for the A storm.

[wxman57]

It appears to be fading now. No name for this one. Hopefully we have to wait until August for the A storm.

Like 1983 and 1992?


Meanwhile, WestPac is remarkably done. Northern Hemisphere Season should be going there by now.

GFS suggests possible hybrid looking development East of Taiwan in a week, however...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/twpac/rb-l.jpg

Yes, those two very quiet years (4-6 storms).

[Ptarmigan]

It appears to be fading now. No name for this one. Hopefully we have to wait until August for the A storm.

Late starting seasons can be very active like 1961, 1969, 1998, and 2004. Also, they are some of the most devastating seasons. People become more complacent when seasons start later.

[Ptarmigan]

It appears to be fading now. No name for this one. Hopefully we have to wait until August for the A storm.

Like 1983 and 1992?


Meanwhile, WestPac is remarkably done. Northern Hemisphere Season should be going there by now.

GFS suggests possible hybrid looking development East of Taiwan in a week, however...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/twpac/rb-l.jpg

1992 may have started as early as April.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1992_April ... ical_storm

[wxman57]

That's not a real TC, though (April 1992). Not much different from the current Invest 92L

[Katdaddy]

Broad circulation near the Yucatan this evening that can be seen on the latest satellite loops.

[srainhoutx]

It looks more like a TUTT (tropical upper tropospheric trough) feature to me. Even HGX mentioned that possibility a couple of days ago.

[srainhoutx]

E-mail from Jeff regarding the upcoming Hurricane Season:

Tomorrow, June 1, marks the start of the 2012 hurricane season. A near to below normal Atlantic hurricane season is expected in 2012 even though 2 named storms have already formed in late May this year (only the third time in history this has happened). Early activity does not usually indicate latter season activity.



The official NOAA forecast calls for:



9-15 named storms

4-8 hurricanes

1-3 major hurricanes (category 3 or higher)



Several factors are coming together to potentially reduce the number or storms for the 2012 season compared to both 2010 and 2011 which had 19 named storms.



1). Atlantic sea surface temperatures in the region between Africa and the Caribbean Sea are running 1-2 degrees below normal for this time of year which suggest cooler than normal water in the Atlantic. Tropical cyclones feed off of warm water, so cooler than average conditions usually indicates a potential for less activity and less intense storms.



2). Forecasted sea level pressures across the entire Atlantic basin are forecasted to run between 50-80% above average during the peak of the 2012 season which again points toward negative conditions for development.



3). The forecasted development of El Nino (warmer than average waters by .5C in the central Pacific). ENSO forecasting models show the current neutral conditions warming to El Nino conditions by late summer. How fast this happens could have a major impact on the Atlantic hurricane season, as El Nino is a major hindrance of Atlantic basin tropical activity due to increased upper level wind shear. If El Nino forms quicker than currently expected, the number of tropical cyclones will probably be toward the lower end of the forecast (9-12).



As with any hurricane season, it is not the number of storms, but where they impact that is important. Current patterns for 2012 support “close-in” development in the Gulf of Mexico and off the SE US coast with potential for quick impacts. I remind everyone that it only takes one storm to make a bad year you’re a particular area (1983 only had 4 tropical systems the entire season, but one was category 3 hurricane Alicia, the last major hurricane to strike the upper TX coast).



Now is the time to review your hurricane preparation plans, prepare a hurricane kit, plan you evacuation route if a public evacuation is needed, and review your insurance policies….remember home owners insurance DOES NOT cover flood damage and flood insurance takes 30 days to go into effect. Prepare NOW!

[weatherguy425]

I know its the VERY VERY long range GFS, but it wants to close off a system in the gulf, guess it's getting to be that time of year!

[srainhoutx]

Added the image as an attachment for you weatherguy. The Euro has been suggesting a nice surge of tropical moisture in the longer range as well. We will see. Tis the season...

[Katdaddy]

Welcome to the official start of the 2012 Hurricane Season. Are you prepared? It only takes one.

[unome]

State of the Sea at the Start of Hurricane Season

from NASA Earth Observatory: http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=78144

The 2012 hurricane season in North and Central America arrives with a muddled outlook. Sea surface temperatures are not particularly warm or cool, and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is drifting in a neutral state that NASA climate scientist Bill Patzert playfully calls “La Nada.”

[srainhoutx]

The 00Z guidance is suggesting an active monsoonal trough becoming established in the 7-10 period. An MJO pulse is forecast to head E and that trough will lift from the EPAC/W Caribbean into the Bay of Campeche/S Gulf area. Guidance (Euro/GFS) now suggest some tropical troubles may spin up in the Western Gulf. Something to monitor as we head further into June. ENSO neutral conditions appear likley through August and we may see a bit more activity in the EPAC/Gulf Basin as we move further into the summer months.

[unome]

looking tropical in the gulf ?

96-hr tcfp loop http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/atlantic_loop.html




Gulf RGB Loop http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-rgb.html

[wxman57]

Shear across the NE Gulf is 30-50 kts now, so no development there.