2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season General Discussions

[skidog40]

looks to be entering gulf shortly

[TexasBreeze]

The little piece of Isaac already has a 10% yellow tag and it's still inland for now...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE ONCE IT MOVES OVER WATER. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[biggerbyte]

I've been watching the remnants of Isaac since he began to move out northward. It was obvious he was going to loop and get back into the Gulf. The question now is, what happens with the leftovers. We have a front coming down. If this system can interact with said front, it should pick up whatever this system becomes and sweep it NE. However, at this time, I do not think the front will make it off the Texas coast before either washing out, or moving back north. This poses a potential problem for some coastal areas of the GOM.

Just something to watch. Isaac is gone, but will he be reborn with another name?

Hmmm!

Stay Tuned.

[skidog40]

i would think this zombie storm would be more devastating if develops and then returns to land. x2

[skidog40]

why would nhc put a 10% chance on storm coming off land.

[Andrew]

why would nhc put a 10% chance on storm coming off land.

Well you have to remember when they put up a chance of development that means there is a chance of development in the next 48hours. So as a result in the next 48 hours there is a 10% chance of development because in 48 hours it should be in the gulf or close to it.

[skidog40]

why would nhc put a 10% chance on storm coming off land.

Well you have to remember when they put up a chance of development that means there is a chance of development in the next 48hours. So as a result in the next 48 hours there is a 10% chance of development because in 48 hours it should be in the gulf or close to it.

i was being a little sarcastic, whats your opinion of this storm? i think if a storm last this long it needs to be watched.

[srainhoutx]

I've been a bit tied up over the long Holiday Weekend with a minor health issue and had not followed the remnants of Isaac too closely. That said we've seen systems in the past develop into a tropical system from a MCS (Mesoscale Convective System) Alicia in mid August 1983 was born from such a system. The closeness of the Upper Low of the Coast of S Florida and just how that feature exits to the NE will be a key tomorrow. We'll also have to monitor just how far offshore this disturbance develops and how quickly, if at all a surface circulation organizes tomorrow. Most guindance agrees that some low level spim begins to organize. Some closer to shore and others further S in the Eastern Half of the Gulf. The Upper Low is expected to lift NE into the Atlantic. The NHC did make it clear that a new name would be given, shoulf it develop. at all. We will see what the overnight brings and see if convection can get a bit more organized and a surface circulation can spin up near the MS/Al/SE LA Coustal Waters later tomorrow.

There are also indications via longer range guidance of more tropical troubled heading W in the next 7-10 days, so we'll need to continue to keep and eye on the tropics...

[biggerbyte]

Good to have you back, Srain. You and I seem to swap sick days.

Anyway! The next few days are certainly interesting.

[skidog40]

just made waterfall

[Ptarmigan]

The tropics have been active with 13 storms. Strange thing is there are no major hurricanes yet. However, Gordon and Kirk could be posthumously upgraded to major hurricane.

[srainhoutx]

While we are in a somewhat quiet period regarding the Tropics other that Leslie and Michael, there are some indications that as we head toward the later half of September and early October, activity will increase once again. There does appear to be a favorable MJO pulse developing in the Indian Ocean that will migrate E and enter the EPAC/North Atlantic Basin near the 18th, +/- a couple of days. We’ll need to see if a formidable Kelvin Wave develops near that time as well. The likely area for development would tend to favor the EPAC with storm motion being more NE toward the Baja/Mexican Riviera as well as the Western Caribbean and perhaps a Gulf threat as well. That said the window is closing for a potential threat for the NW Gulf as our fall fronts begin to get active, but I would caution everyone that this is not a ‘set in stone’ forecast. There have been late September and even the first half of October storms that have developed, so we will continue to monitor until that first legitimate ‘Blue Norther’ blows through and basically ends any threat locally…

[srainhoutx]

The GFS has been rather insistent in the longer range developing a storm near the Leeward Islands for several days behind our new invest 91L. While the Euro suggests otherwise, the GFS has earned the respect this season of ‘sniffing out’ TC genesis and should not be discounted. As mentioned in the previous post, we could be entering a more active phase with a favorable MJO pulse and a possible Kelvin Wave near that time and the eventual track remains very uncertain. If the GFS is correct and development does not begin before 55W, then attention will need to be turned back to the Tropics after we enjoy a brief cool down this weekend.

[srainhoutx]

The long range 12Z Euro finally is catching on to what the GFS has been 'hinting'. A disturbance behind 91L enters the Caribbean and the 18Z GFS is suggesting a surface low crossing the Yucatan and entering the Western Gulf while slowly strengthening. While this is still a ways out, seeing more guidance agreement from the reliable models lends a bit of creditability that the season may not be over a bit closer to home. We will see.

[Rip76]

"Our fearless leader may be even more of a glass half full type optimist than I am. But hoping the next 12Z Euro shows what yesterday's did. Beyond the resolution chop, the 6Z in 11 days trying to show something weak in the Northwest Gulf. 45 knot winds at 250 mb overhead, weak might indeed be the operative word."


That's something I could deal with...

[Gene Norman]

Here are some thoughts on the "peak of the season": http://www.khou.com/community/blogs/new ... 63206.html

[srainhoutx]

For what it's worth, the 00Z GFS is suggesting an area of disturbed weather spinning up in the Bay of Campeche near the 18th, +/- a couple of days and morving N to just off the SE TX/SW LA Coast as a TD or weak TS near the 20th before being shunted ENE.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z GFS remains rather suggestive in spinning up a disturbance next week in the Bay of Campeche. It is interesting to note that a strong Kelvin Wave is heading E from the Indian Ocean and that tends to suggest that the models are ‘sniffing’ some enhanced activity. In the longer range, the GFS continues to advertise a fairly well developed storm forming in the Central Caribbean and heading toward the Yucatan.

[srainhoutx]

Forecaster Paul Kocin of the HPC has added a broad surface low in the Bay of Campeche on the day 7 surface charts. While speaking to him this past summer, he was looking forward to is new area of forecasting away from Alaska desk and was looking forward to forecasting Winter Weather which is his area of expertise...

[srainhoutx]

The overnight guidance ( mainly the GFS/CMC and to some extent the UKMet ) continue to advertise cyclogenesis in the Bay of Campeche/Western Gulf next week. We will see.