2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season General Discussions

[Belmer]

They won't tag this as 93L for another 2 or 3 days, but it looks like a tropical cyclone over land on loops.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/eatl/rb-l.jpg

That storm over Africa looks better than some tropical storms I have seen.

I agree. I saw that storm earlier today and it looked impressive just over land. Could be a monster if conditions are right when it gets out in the warm waters.

[srainhoutx]

Code: Select all

NOAA’s updated 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook indicates a high likelihood (85% chance) of a near- or above-normal season. The outlook calls for a 50% chance of a near-normal season, a 35% chance of an above normal season, and only a 15% chance of a below-normal season. See NOAA definitions of above-, near-, and below-normal seasons. The Atlantic hurricane region includes the North Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico. 

All indications are that the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season will reflect competing factors, some supporting stronger hurricane activity and some likely suppressing hurricane activity later in the season. 

Favoring more activity are very conducive conditions now in place, which are linked to the ongoing the tropical multi-decadal signal. This climate pattern has been associated with increased Atlantic hurricane activity since 1995. It is linked to above-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the tropical Atlantic Ocean and to an enhanced west African monsoon, both of which are in place as was predicted in the May pre-season outlook. 

El Niño is a competing factor that acts to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity by increasing the vertical wind shear over the tropical Atlantic. The timing of El Niño is very important to this outlook. El Niño is expected to develop during August or September, but its suppressing influence is not expected until later in the season. The possibility of near-average SSTs in the far eastern tropical Atlantic also suggests a more moderate hurricane season. 

Based on these competing factors, we estimate a 70% probability for each of the following ranges of activity for the entire 2012 Atlantic hurricane season:


12-17 Named Storms, (top winds of 39 mph or higher), including: 
5-8 Hurricanes (top winds of 74 mph or higher), of which: 
2-3 are expected to become Major Hurricanes (Cat. 3-5, wind speeds at least 111 mph). 
An Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) range of 75%-135% of the median. 

The seasonal activity is expected to fall within these ranges in 70% of seasons with similar climate conditions and uncertainties to those expected this year. These ranges do not represent the total possible ranges of activity seen in past similar years. 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/o ... cane.shtml

[weatherguy425]

Well Models (especially the GFS) have been throwing around the idea of a surface low closing off in the Bay of Campeche early next weak, and moving it northward towards the northwestern Gulf. This goes right along with the generally wet and disturbed Gulf theme which Srainhoutx has mentioned several times this past week. Thoughts?

[srainhoutx]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
200 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM ERNESTO...LOCATED NEAR COATZACOALCOS MEXICO.

A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED MIDWAY BETWEEN THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. A SMALL AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED AROUND THE
CENTER OF CIRCULATION...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH...THE REMNANTS OF FLORENCE...IS PRODUCING AN
AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SEVERAL HUNDRED
MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS MAY BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...SIGNIFICANT REDEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

A TROPICAL WAVE ACCOMPANIED BY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
APPROACHING THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA WITH MINIMAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER SULLIVAN/BERG

[redneckweather]

I was logging on here to post about that blob in the Caribbean Ed. I think it is worth watching.

[jgreak]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html
It does look very interesting to me, has some cold tops

[srainhoutx]

While it is a long way out and a lot can certainly change, the 12Z Euro offered up the strongest tropical cyclone of the season thus far nearing the Caribbean Islands...

[Rip76]

Probably just a flare up, but the BOC looks interesting this morning.

[srainhoutx]

Pressures are a bit low in the SW Gulf, so we'll need to monitor that area this week for a potential quick spin up. We also have moisture streaming E from Hector and the advancing former TD 7 moisture to contend with later in the week. Also I will add there are rather strong signals that as we head toward the end of August, the tropics will become rather active and a couple of areas to watch closely would be the Eastern Gulf/SE Atlantic area. We will see.

[srainhoutx]

There may be a hint of a broad weak surface low developing in the SW Gulf. Veracruz and Xalapa both reporting N winds this past hour while buoy 42055 further NE in the Bay of Campeche is reporting ESE winds. Convection rolled off the Yucatan last night and has remained rather persistent. We'll see if there is anything left convective wise later in the day.

[Alvin Girl]

There may be a hint of a broad weak surface low developing in the SW Gulf. Veracruz and Xalapa both reporting N winds this past hour while buoy 42055 further NE in the Bay of Campeche is reporting ESE winds. Convection rolled off the Yucatan last night and has remained rather persistent. We'll see if there is anything left convective wise later in the day.

Srain, I can definately see a counter clockwise rotation on the visible and IR loop of the gulf (last few frames really shows it). Do you think they'll do an invest on this?

[wxman57]

It's certainly more impressive than the remnants of Seven. Probably has a better chance of developing, too. Always have to watch blobs of storms over the Gulf. I don't see any evidence of a surface circulation at this time.

[biggerbyte]

Actually I posted this a couple of days ago and no one commented. This flare up and rotation has been there for some time.

Here is the link again:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-wv.html

Today's view is especially impressive. I would not be surprised to see something develop.

BB

Edit to add another view:

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/models/noaap ... /SYS/COMP/

[Scott747]

Throughout the life of Ernesto the GFS in the long and medium range kept showing a flareup in the BOC after Ernesto had moved on. Occasionally it would hint at closing something off but generally it was just an area of disturbed weather.

BRO touched on the area just a bit in the latest disco but attributed it to an upper low over CMEX with and no mention of any potential organization.

[unome]

Masters' blog mentions the Gulf this weekend http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=2184

"Watch the Gulf of Mexico this weekend

Another area to watch this weekend will be the Gulf of Mexico, where a fall-like cold front is expected to stall out. Wind shear is predicted to be low to moderate this weekend, and cold fronts stalled out over the Gulf of Mexico often serve as the seed for tropical storms. The GFS model has been showing some development may occur in the waters close to shore near the Texas/Mexico border early next week."

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z Euro suggests a rather healthy system developing in the MDR. We will see if the guidance is beginning to catch onto a more active period that has been expected for the past week or so...

[unome]

http://www.hfip.org/products/
WARNING: This webpage contains experimental analysis and forecast guidance of unknown accuracy and reliability.
For official forecasts consult the National Hurricane Center

http://www.hfip.org/data_ens/index.cgi? ... ter=tcprob



http://www.hfip.org/data_ens/


and HRD's blog, very good: http://noaahrd.wordpress.com/category/h ... t-project/

[biggerbyte]

Anyone else noticing the activity down in the SW Gulf?

[srainhoutx]

Anyone else noticing the activity down in the SW Gulf?

We had a great discussion on the potential of development along the tail end of the frontal boundary yesterday at our get together. One can never under estimated a stalled boundary in the Gulf in August and the potential for a quick spin up of tropical troubles. We will see. Jeff and others have made that point rather clearly this past week...

[Portastorm]

Glad y'all pointed this out. That was the first thing I saw this morning as I perused the tropical satellite images. As more and more attention gets focused on 94L (and perhaps justifiably so based on the latest model runs), we cannot forget the Gulf and Bay of Campeche. As srainhoutx points out so well, this is an area which the pro mets and computer models have suggested that it has "potential."