2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season General Discussions

[Ptarmigan]

The tropics have been active with 13 storms. Strange thing is there are no major hurricanes yet. However, Gordon and Kirk could be posthumously upgraded to major hurricane.

[srainhoutx]

While we are in a somewhat quiet period regarding the Tropics other that Leslie and Michael, there are some indications that as we head toward the later half of September and early October, activity will increase once again. There does appear to be a favorable MJO pulse developing in the Indian Ocean that will migrate E and enter the EPAC/North Atlantic Basin near the 18th, +/- a couple of days. We’ll need to see if a formidable Kelvin Wave develops near that time as well. The likely area for development would tend to favor the EPAC with storm motion being more NE toward the Baja/Mexican Riviera as well as the Western Caribbean and perhaps a Gulf threat as well. That said the window is closing for a potential threat for the NW Gulf as our fall fronts begin to get active, but I would caution everyone that this is not a ‘set in stone’ forecast. There have been late September and even the first half of October storms that have developed, so we will continue to monitor until that first legitimate ‘Blue Norther’ blows through and basically ends any threat locally…

[srainhoutx]

The GFS has been rather insistent in the longer range developing a storm near the Leeward Islands for several days behind our new invest 91L. While the Euro suggests otherwise, the GFS has earned the respect this season of ‘sniffing out’ TC genesis and should not be discounted. As mentioned in the previous post, we could be entering a more active phase with a favorable MJO pulse and a possible Kelvin Wave near that time and the eventual track remains very uncertain. If the GFS is correct and development does not begin before 55W, then attention will need to be turned back to the Tropics after we enjoy a brief cool down this weekend.

[srainhoutx]

The long range 12Z Euro finally is catching on to what the GFS has been 'hinting'. A disturbance behind 91L enters the Caribbean and the 18Z GFS is suggesting a surface low crossing the Yucatan and entering the Western Gulf while slowly strengthening. While this is still a ways out, seeing more guidance agreement from the reliable models lends a bit of creditability that the season may not be over a bit closer to home. We will see.

[Rip76]

"Our fearless leader may be even more of a glass half full type optimist than I am. But hoping the next 12Z Euro shows what yesterday's did. Beyond the resolution chop, the 6Z in 11 days trying to show something weak in the Northwest Gulf. 45 knot winds at 250 mb overhead, weak might indeed be the operative word."


That's something I could deal with...

[Gene Norman]

Here are some thoughts on the "peak of the season": http://www.khou.com/community/blogs/new ... 63206.html

[srainhoutx]

For what it's worth, the 00Z GFS is suggesting an area of disturbed weather spinning up in the Bay of Campeche near the 18th, +/- a couple of days and morving N to just off the SE TX/SW LA Coast as a TD or weak TS near the 20th before being shunted ENE.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z GFS remains rather suggestive in spinning up a disturbance next week in the Bay of Campeche. It is interesting to note that a strong Kelvin Wave is heading E from the Indian Ocean and that tends to suggest that the models are ‘sniffing’ some enhanced activity. In the longer range, the GFS continues to advertise a fairly well developed storm forming in the Central Caribbean and heading toward the Yucatan.

[srainhoutx]

Forecaster Paul Kocin of the HPC has added a broad surface low in the Bay of Campeche on the day 7 surface charts. While speaking to him this past summer, he was looking forward to is new area of forecasting away from Alaska desk and was looking forward to forecasting Winter Weather which is his area of expertise...

[srainhoutx]

The overnight guidance ( mainly the GFS/CMC and to some extent the UKMet ) continue to advertise cyclogenesis in the Bay of Campeche/Western Gulf next week. We will see.

[wxman57]

Note that with the deepening trof across the central U.S. next week, the upper-level flow across the northern Gulf will increase significantly. Westerly winds of 50-80 kts will dominate the northern half of the Gulf next week. That rules out any possible tropical threat across the northern Gulf.

[Ptarmigan]

That disturbance before the resolution truncation is awfully unimpressive.


Now, as a natural optimist, although I normally dismiss 2 week post-truncation storms on the GFS, one of the SUNY-Albany grad students think the end of September into October could become a favorable period. Very little of significance happens locally past the Equinox, but again, we have Cat 1 Jerry the Western suburbs of Houston didn't know was happening, and the 16 day GFS forecast has fairly reasonable (20 to 30 knot) 250 mb Westerlies over the Northern Gulf, and the Western end of the subtropical ridge might guide the 384 hour phantacane towards the West or even Northwest Gulf.

And so how can I not be glass 3/128th optimistic?

The October 1949 hurricane was a major hurricane at landfall.

[srainhoutx]

That disturbance before the resolution truncation is awfully unimpressive.


Now, as a natural optimist, although I normally dismiss 2 week post-truncation storms on the GFS, one of the SUNY-Albany grad students think the end of September into October could become a favorable period. Very little of significance happens locally past the Equinox, but again, we have Cat 1 Jerry the Western suburbs of Houston didn't know was happening, and the 16 day GFS forecast has fairly reasonable (20 to 30 knot) 250 mb Westerlies over the Northern Gulf, and the Western end of the subtropical ridge might guide the 384 hour phantacane towards the West or even Northwest Gulf.

And so how can I not be glass 3/128th optimistic?

The October 1949 hurricane was a major hurricane at landfall.

I see Cat 3 and Cat 4 at different internet sites...

Until re analysis suggests otherwise, it was a CAT 4...