2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season General Discussions

[biggerbyte]

Anyone else noticing the activity down in the SW Gulf?

We had a great discussion on the potential of development along the tail end of the frontal boundary yesterday at our get together. One can never under estimated a stalled boundary in the Gulf in August and the potential for a quick spin up of tropical troubles. We will see. Jeff and others have made that point rather clearly this past week...

For sure, something is happening down there. Any "leftovers" from TS Helene, coupled with a retreating cool front, and now this activity in the Gulf, which by the way is streaming moisture north, could all spell trouble mid to late week. Then there is 94L to be concerned with as well. Interesting times ahead.

[srainhoutx]

Of course the 12Z Canadian which we know is not a model to be fully trusted in the tropics spins up a storm along the Texas Coast...

[biggerbyte]

Of course the 12Z Canadian which we know is not a model to be fully trusted in the tropics spins up a storm along the Texas Coast...

Ouch! Multiple "hot spots" to watch. Uptick in weather activity, for sure. Glad to see you are feeling better so you can enjoy it.

[cisa]

Which model do you guys feel has been most reliable this season?

[tireman4]

Which model do you guys feel has been most reliable this season?

GFS...amazing this year in the tropics....

[cisa]

Which model do you guys feel has been most reliable this season?

GFS...amazing this year in the tropics....

Thanks Tireman.

[jgreak]

Looking at the gulf satellite loop, there are some very cold tops forming on that blob. Any pros care to give their thoughts on this?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

[Rip76]

Gulf action?
Yay/Nay?

[Katdaddy]

Lots of convection this evening. If its still there tomorrow and pressure begin to lower then I will become very interested.

[Andrew]

Gulf action?
Yay/Nay?

Development does not look likely. You can tell from visible satellite that shear is strong in the area. This area of activity should diminish tonight with the lack of daytime heating.

[biffb816]

I was just idly wondering the other day, based on (I think) an early GFS model from last week, if perhaps the models had picked up a Gulf originating storm. And that set me to wondering if there had ever been two hurricanes in the Gulf at the same time. I tried the googles but found nothing. Anybody know? Is there even enough energy/space in the Gulf to support two storms at once?

[TexasBreeze]

As all eyes are on Issac, there is Kirk in open Atlantic and another developing mdr system...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

[Portastorm]

Good post, Ed. I agree completely with your thoughts and it seems like you've covered all the angles.

Hopefully we can play out the rest of the season without a major impact on the Texas coastline. Of course, all of us would welcome tropical storm rains of any sort ... but we can do without the Ritas/Ikes, et al.

[txflagwaver]

If this information was made available via television new/weather casts would folks have heeded the warning? I cannot remember seeing this anywhere...I found it through a facebook post

[wxman666]

If this information was made available via television new/weather casts would folks have heeded the warning? I cannot remember seeing this anywhere...I found it through a facebook post

If I'm not mistaken, I believe The Weather Channel actually broadcasted that.

[Belmer]

If this information was made available via television new/weather casts would folks have heeded the warning? I cannot remember seeing this anywhere...I found it through a facebook post

If I'm not mistaken, I believe The Weather Channel actually broadcasted that.

They did broadcast that image. I remember Norcross talking about it several times.
I'm sure it's not up anymore, but they also made a video about it on a video on weather.com

[Texas Pirate]

That information was blasted in several places.
Not to mention the NHC kept calling Isaac a "rain maker"

You asked if people would have heeded anyway?
Those that know they live practically UNDER THE SEA ala Sponge Bob and understand the landscape of
where they were living, left. Don't need a map to tell you twice. Those that are just
stubborn and thought they could "ride it through" got a wake up call.
Usually by the rising waters, and standing on their rooftops waiting for deliverance.

[srainhoutx]

I see the official count for named Tropical Storms for August tied the previous record of 8 set in 2004. That year was also an El Nino year. So much for a suppressed season since TD 13 formed today. My hunch is we'll see some potential for tropical troubles with a 'home grown' threat after the frontal boundary washes out next week. The Western Caribbean/Western Gulf is not closed for the year, IMO. We will see...

[sambucol]

I see the official count for named Tropical Storms for August tied the previous record of 8 set in 2004. That year was also an El Nino year. So much for a suppressed season since TD 13 formed today. My hunch is we'll see some potential for tropical troubles with a 'home grown' threat after the frontal boundary washes out next week. The Western Caribbean/Western Gulf is not closed for the year, IMO. We will see...

Are you seeing anything that would point to our area that would get a home grown visitor?

[djjordan]

Seems like the setup would be there next week to at least watch. Return flow off the gulf, a cool front washing out or heading back north, warm SST's .... Will be something to watch.