Wx Infinity Forums

POURING here!

I only had .10" here today.

Ed, you may get more tonight. Training cells are setting-up right now in an E-W west band over Harris County. This trend needs to be watched very closely.

Well, that didn't last long...

Check out that storm over mcallen........ Monster hail. Don't have link...: but wow

Concern is growing for your neighbors to the west about possible severe weather later today. I certainly hope we don't see anything like the folks in McAllen and Mission saw last night!

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1108 AM CDT FRI MAR 30 2012

.DISCUSSION...
CONCERN OVER RAPID CLEARING...GRAVITY WAVES/OUTFLOW MOVING SOUTH
FROM STORMS IN NORTH TEXAS...AND A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE BIG BEND
ARE ENOUGH TO UPDATE THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE POPS FOR THE ENTIRE
CWA...AND MENTION OF SEVERE/HEAVY RAIN OVER THE HILL COUNTRY IN
LINE WITH THE EARLY MORNING SPC OUTLOOK. THE SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE
PROGS SHOW THE CAP GREATLY DIMINISHING WITH TIME...LEAVING ROUGHLY
2000-3000 J/KG OF MLCAPE AND STEEP 500-700 MB LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS
OF 7 C/KM THIS AFTERNOON. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IS 15 M/S OR
LESS...AND STORM MOTION PROJECTED TO BE QUITE SLOW...SO THE MAIN
MODE SHOULD BE STRONG PULSE STORMS...AND HENCE MAIN THREATS OF
LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...AND A SECONDARY THREAT OF
DAMAGING WINDS. CONDITIONS MAY BE RIGHT FOR ONE OR TWO
SUPERCELLS...BUT EXPECT THE PRIMARY THREAT TO BE GOLFBALL OR
LARGER HAIL WITH THOSE STORMS

Ed Mahmoud wrote: Its like NWS EWX reads my posts

Obviously, he wants to complain about weak shear and pulse severe wasting super juicy middle level instability, but severe weather weeniesm can only be done on local weather forums.

Different topic.

The MCV that moved off Texas is a month or two too early. I can almost see a hint of anticyclonic cirrus outflow on the Northern side of it, and 3 or 4ºC more SST and I think it'd be on the road to sub-tropical glory.

Many tropical cyclones form from MCV like Alicia (1983) and Danny (1997). If that area of thunderstorm persists for another several days, it maybe able to develop. If so, it would be tagged as an Invest, Tropical Depression #1, and even be Alberto.

It would be unusual if it made landfall in April. There have been records of tropical cyclones hitting Texas in April. There was one in 1554 which hit Brownsville.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/txhur.pdf

Ed Mahmoud wrote:

Ptarmigan wrote:

Ed Mahmoud wrote:

Its like NWS EWX reads my posts

Obviously, he wants to complain about weak shear and pulse severe wasting super juicy middle level instability, but severe weather weeniesm can only be done on local weather forums.

Different topic.

The MCV that moved off Texas is a month or two too early. I can almost see a hint of anticyclonic cirrus outflow on the Northern side of it, and 3 or 4ºC more SST and I think it'd be on the road to sub-tropical glory.

Many tropical cyclones form from MCV like Alicia (1983) and Danny (1997). If that area of thunderstorm persists for another several days, it maybe able to develop. If so, it would be tagged as an Invest, Tropical Depression #1, and even be Alberto. It would be unusual if it made landfall in April. There have been records of tropical cyclones hitting Texas in April. There was one in 1554 which hit Brownsville.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/txhur.pdf

Usually not in March, however...

No known records of tropical cyclones hitting Texas in March.

Pic someone sent us of the hail damage in McAllen yesterday.

More pics here:
http://www.themonitor.com/sections/slid ... d=13318806