March: Warm Days To End The Month With Isolated Showers

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z GFS is also suggesting a possible uptick in storm activity later today. We will see...

[mckinne63]

Some light rain in Stafford, just heard some thunder too. Probably won't last too long, skies aren't looking ominous. I will take what we can get! After last summer, I LOVE rain.

[srainhoutx]

For our neighbors N of Victoria...

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
508 PM CDT WED MAR 28 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
EASTERN DEWITT COUNTY...
SOUTHERN LAVACA COUNTY...

* UNTIL 700 PM CDT.

* AT 502 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. LAW ENFORCEMENT HAS REPORTED
THAT WATER HAS COVERED THE ROAD ON FM 1447...5 MILES NORTH OF CUERO
IN DEWITT COUNTY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 2 OR MORE INCHES IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THIS EVENING AND WILL LIKELY CAUSE ADDITIONAL FLOODING OF
ROADWAYS AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...CUERO...
YOAKUM...EZZELL...SPEAKS AND THOMASTON.

[Ptarmigan]

Interesting to see these storm remnants from last night have re-developed.

[Andrew]

For areas around Brazos:

FLASH FLOOD WARNING
TXC041-051-290300-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FF.W.0021.120329T0151Z-120329T0300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
851 PM CDT WED MAR 28 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
BURLESON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHERN BRAZOS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1000 PM CDT

* AT 840 PM CDT...THE BURLESON COUNTY SHERIFF`S OFFICE REPORTED
NUMEROUS ROADS UNDER WATER...AND WATER ENTERING THREE HOMES AND A
HOTEL IN CALDWELL. RADAR INDICATED SLOW MOVING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...LOCATED
IN THE WARNED AREA. RADAR INDICATES 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN HAS
ALREADY FALLEN...AND ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE.

* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
CALDWELL AND SNOOK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DEPTH AND SPEED OF FLASH FLOOD WATERS. ACT QUICKLY IF FLASH FLOODING
IS OBSERVED. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS
TO RISE.

&&

PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE COUNTY SHERIFF...LOCAL POLICE...
OR DEPARTMENT OF PUBLIC SAFETY AND ASK THEM TO RELAY YOUR REPORT TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3059 9693 3074 9662 3074 9660 3070 9656
3074 9649 3046 9614 3032 9661 3057 9695

$$

[srainhoutx]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms today and Friday.



A bit of a surprise yesterday as models failed to correctly solve the upper disturbance which evolved into a weak upper level low over the state. Afternoon convection was extremely efficient is producing some really big rainfall totals over portions of our northwest counties and southwest of the area where some locations picked up between 8-10 inches of rainfall. Slow storm motions in a highly moist air mass were the main culprits for flooding rainfall in some very localized areas.



Disturbance yesterday is now over extreme east TX while another weak disturbance has moved out of MX overnight and has resulted in a small area of organized storms over S TX early this morning (approaching Corpus Christi). Short term models are not all that aggressive with rain chances today, but they were not overly excited yesterday. Given radar trends down the coast from north of Corpus to near Victoria where a few showers are starting to develop…likely on the leading edge of lift from the disturbance combined with favorable low level flow off the Gulf suggest that an active day may be on tap. Air mass will destabilize with heating this morning and expect to see scattered showers and thunderstorms develop from late morning through early afternoon. No area is really favored over another, although the southern areas may see the brunt of the activity today with the track of the S TX disturbance and inland movement of the afternoon seabreeze. Texas Tech WRF was showing some development along some sort of a northward moving boundary later today, but it is widely scattered.



Convection will fire up again this evening over the mountains of Mexico and push eastward into SW and S TX again tonight…similar to the last several nights. A stronger disturbance moving out of Mexico tonight may help bring more organized storms across S TX and possibly further eastward than the past few nights. A general lack of good upper air data from MX is really causing some issues with the model guidance with these weak systems and their downstream impacts over TX. Meso scale events are the main driving forces under a weak upper level flow regime which are difficult to forecast.



Rainfall:

Very slow storm motions yesterday in a highly moist air mass produced some prodigious rainfall amounts in a very short period of time (4.5 inches in 2.5 hours under some cells). Air mass is similarly moist today and storm motions remain under 10mph. Feel that the threat for short term excessive rainfall remains, but with a lack of any surface focus there is no good boundary to anchor the storms on…not saying these storms that develop could not produce some sort of outflow boundary this afternoon that becomes an anchoring mechanism. For now will go with scattered amounts of .5 to 1 inch much like yesterday with a few locations getting much more (again this will be isolated, but where it happens some significant flooding may result).



Extended:

Upper flow becomes a little less noisy over the weekend ahead of a decent frontal passage aimed at the area for Monday. While winds turn SW ahead of the boundary (possibly advecting capping NE from MX), there still appears to be enough moisture and good lift with the boundary Monday afternoon to produce a band of thunderstorms.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z NAM (4km WRF/NMM) continues to advertise slow moving showers/storms across the area this afternoon/evening...

[srainhoutx]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1002 AM CDT THU MAR 29 2012

TXZ226-235-236-291600-
JACKSON-MATAGORDA-WHARTON-
1002 AM CDT THU MAR 29 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

AT 959 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
RAPIDLY DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORM OVER EAST CENTRAL JACKSON
COUNTY...NEAR LA WARD MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL...WINDS GREATER THAN 40 MPH...BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. RAINFALL RATES OF 2 INCHES
PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...MIDFIELD...LOUISE...
BLESSING AND LA WARD.

[djjordan]

Looks to be a wet afternoon ..... Light Rain in SGR attm .... looks to stay that way for most of the afternoon unless something heavier develops. Not really expecting it to though as much of the action is south of us and cloud cover may limit the heating.

[Ptarmigan]

Lightning, then thunder, under a most unimpressive 30 dbz return on the radar @ the Galleria.

I think I can explain seeing flashes/hearing thunder. I can almost imagine little baby spiral bands on the MCV...

Looks a bit like a tropical storm or hurricane.

[srainhoutx]

From NESDIS:

SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 03/29/12 1700Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-817-4209
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13 1702Z JBN
.
LOCATION...TEXAS...
.
EVENT...SLOWMOVING CONVECTION NEAR THE COAST
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...LATEST GOES WV IMAGERY SHOWS MID/UL
DISTURBANCE SITUATED OVER SE TX THAT IS SLOWLY MOVING NEWD ATTM. BLENDED
TPW IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE ALONG THE TC COAST WITH PWATS
AVERAGING NEAR 1.5". IR/VIS IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION
THAT HAS DEVELOPED THE PAST FEW HRS ALONG THE COAST BETWEEN KRKP AND
KEFD. CLOUD TOPS ARE SHOWING A NICE COOLING/EXPANDING TREND IN IR IMAGERY
WITH A FEW OVERSHOOTING TOPS OCCURRING AS WELL IN VIS IMAGERY. GIVEN
THE OVERSHOOTING TOPS AND CELL MERGERS THAT MAY BE OCCURRING, RAIN
RATES MAY BE IN EXCESS OF 2"/HR IN THE MOST INTENSE CONVECTIOJN. SINCE
THE ENTIRE CLUSTER IS MOVING VERY SLOWLY TO THE NE WITH THE MID/UL
DISTURBANCE, COULD SEE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HVY RAIN THAT COULD RESULT
IN SOME FLOODING ISSUES ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. SATELLITE ESTIMATE
PRODUCTS ARE ALREADY SHOWING 1-1.5" OF RAIN THE PAST 3 HRS ACROSS PARTS
OF MATAGORDA/JACKSON.WHARTON COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL RAIN FALL AMTS OF 1-3"
WILL BE POSSIBLE THE NEXT 2-3 HRS AS THE CONVECTION SLOWLY MOVES NEWD.
.
SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1715Z-2015Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT
TERM OUTLOOK BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.....CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY IN IR IMAGERY AS EVIDENT BY CELL MERGERS AND
COOLING/EXPANDING CLOUD TOPS. AMPLY MOISTURE AND SOME UL SUPPORT FROM
MID/UL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO HELP SUSTAIN
CONVECTION AND PRODUCE MOD/HVY RAIN THE NEXT FEW HRS. THIS MAY RESULT
IN SOME URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING THE NEXT FEW HRS.

[txflagwaver]

Most of it over thr water...Was hoping for a good soaking...Little rotation it looks like

[srainhoutx]

HCFCD rain gauges reporting almost 2 inches of rain within the past hour near IAH.

[Paul]

Is that an eye forming?

[Paul]

I new I smelled almost a hint of tropical this morning.... Going to be a fun ride here in a few weeks....

[srainhoutx]

HGX issues Flood Advisory for Chambers, Harris, Liberty & Montgomery Counties. They are 'hinting' a Flash Flood Warning may be needed as storms redevelop over the same areas.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

IAH getting pounded.

2.7 inches and climbing in the last hour.

[gregco31]

Not a good start for the people out at Redstone and the Shell Houston Open.

[srainhoutx]

Afternoon e-mail from Jeff:

Flash Flood Warning issued for Harris and Montgomery Counties until 600pm



What an afternoon as meso vortex over Brazoria County has spawned a strong bow echo moving through the coastal waters and slow moving excessive rainfall over Harris and Brazoria Counties. 1 hour rainfall rate of 2.40 inches has been recorded near BUSH IAH. Flash Flooding is likely from loop 610-Humble between I-45 and US 59.



Extensive development should progress eastward slowly this afternoon, but upstream satellite and radar is already starting to fore off in the high terrain of NE MX/TX Big Bend region where past several nights storm complexes have developed. Additionally there appears to be some sort of low level boundary left over along the middle TX coast from the southern flank of the bow echo offshore to south of Seadrift and then inland near Rockport where towering cumulus and echoes are attempting to develop. An impressive cell south of Calhoun County over the Gulf has been anchored on this boundary for several hours now and recently the radar is showing development back closer to the coast from Port Alto to Palacios.



Not overly confident in what is going to happen this evening as meso scale influence are in pure control as is clear on the radar at this time. Feel the current activity will slowly shift eastward, but more may develop near the coast.



Overnight another vigorous complex of storms should evolve out of NE MX and head E to ESE across SC/S TX and toward our region by Friday morning. Will have to see how this plays out early Friday, but something similar to today may be possible again on Friday.



Models have been very poor on their handling of these weak features much of which have been convectively induced on the short term (6-12 hours) which is very hard for models to resolve.

[srainhoutx]

TXZ195-196-292030-
BRAZOS-BURLESON-
257 PM CDT THU MAR 29 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

AT 253 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES NORTH OF CALDWELL...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
10 MPH. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER HAS BEEN REPORTED WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...CHRIESMAN...SNOOK AND
CALDWELL.