March: Warm Days To End The Month With Isolated Showers

[Katdaddy]

I know one thing.....its WAY WAY too NICE outside to be at work today.

[srainhoutx]

What an absolutely gorgeous Spring day out there today. It appears we will have a great weekend with warming temps. The next chance of rain will begin increasing around the middle of next week as the guidance suggest a trough dropping S into Texas with short wave activity around Thursday-Friday with a developing upper low across the Lone Star State.

[sleetstorm]

What does the weather look like for Palm Sunday and Good Friday?

[niner21]

What does the weather look like for Palm Sunday and Good Friday?

Too soon to tell, but GFS suggests a couple of episodes of rain during Holy Week. Dry until then...

Thank the Lord... but seriously we're good for a few days with no rain.

I burried my lawn tractor about 4 times last week BEFORE that last round so my yard could use some low hummidity, 0 raindays. It did however allow me to get some of my remaining rye seed in and it's growing so I'll be able to seed bermuda back in behind the rye so it won't totally wash away (the rye, even dead, gives the bermuda a bed of sorts to stick in and then grow).

I'll take rain in the amount of 1" every Thursday at 9pm all summer long if someone's taking orders....

[weatherguy425]

I may be jumping the gun a little bit here, but it's a little worrisome seeing the models shift the storm track further to the north for the next couple of weeks. Evaporation rates and temperatures are both climbing steadily now, and I would hate to get stuck back in a drier pattern, especially since most lakes are finally near or at full capacity.

[srainhoutx]

What a gorgeous Chamber of Commerce Weekend across Texas. I hope everyone had a chance to get outside and enjoy the beautiful weather. The next chance of showers looks to come toward the end of the week and a new month begins. Perhaps someone would do us the honor of starting an April thread.

[Ptarmigan]

What a gorgeous Chamber of Commerce Weekend across Texas. I hope everyone had a chance to get outside and enjoy the beautiful weather. The next chance of showers looks to come toward the end of the week and a new month begins. Perhaps someone would do us the honor of starting an April thread.

Started that.

[wxman57]

Heading to Florida for the National Hurricane Conference in a few hours. Going to get with Phil Klotzbach tomorrow evening. He'll be speaking on Wednesday.

[srainhoutx]

Afternoon e-mail from Jeff:

Very nice Spring weather of late will transition to increasing clouds and rain chances by the end of the week.



Favorable low level flow off the Gulf is slowly increasing moisture across the area with skies partly cloudy with a scattered low level deck of cumulus and high level deck of cirrus over the region. Disturbances in the WSW flow aloft have been helping to fire off late afternoon/evening thunderstorms over the high terrain of NE Mexico which have moved across the border into TX. This activity has dissipated long before reaching SE TX.



Models are coming into decent agreement on pegging the Friday-Saturday period for the next round of local convection as a decent short wave moves across the state in the flow aloft. Moisture will deepen through the period peaking Friday afternoon in the 1.3-1.5 inch range along with a weakening of the capping aloft. Upper level winds become increasingly divergent Friday afternoon, but the area is lacking any sort of surface trigger. Feel that enough parameters are in place for showers/thunderstorms to develop without a surface trigger, but these storms may remain more scattered than the widespread nature of the past several systems. Not really looking at any severe of excessive rainfall threat either although a few storms could be locally strong with brief heavy rainfall, small hail, and gusty winds.



System will pass east of the area by midday on Saturday with partly cloudy skies returning and no change in the low level air mass. GFS shows a powerful cold front crossing the area early next week knocking temperatures down to below normal for early April…for now will go with a much more subdued forecast and weaker frontal passage. Not sure there will be ample moisture behind the Saturday system to spark additional rainfall early next week…plenty of time to watch and fine tune.



Hydro:

Still dealing with high flows on the Navasota, Brazos, and Trinity Rivers. Recessions are in progress on the Navasota and Brazos, but rises are forecasted on the lower Trinity as upstream run-off finally reaches the lower part of the river. Rises to flood stage are possible by this weekend at both Liberty and Moss Bluff. Rainfall in the Friday-Saturday time period does not appear to be great enough to result in additional run-off concerns or rises on the mainstem channels.



Note: EWX radar is down due to the first dual polarization upgrade of the 88D (NEXRAD). For more information see the link below

http://www.roc.noaa.gov/WSR88D/DualPol/Default.aspx

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z NAM (4km WRF/NMM) is suggesting a bit of mid/upper level energy skirting past the area later today. We'll see if there is enough of a 'trigger' to fire off some showers/storms as this disturbance moves across the area...

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z GFS is also suggesting a possible uptick in storm activity later today. We will see...

[mckinne63]

Some light rain in Stafford, just heard some thunder too. Probably won't last too long, skies aren't looking ominous. I will take what we can get! After last summer, I LOVE rain.

[srainhoutx]

For our neighbors N of Victoria...

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
508 PM CDT WED MAR 28 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
EASTERN DEWITT COUNTY...
SOUTHERN LAVACA COUNTY...

* UNTIL 700 PM CDT.

* AT 502 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. LAW ENFORCEMENT HAS REPORTED
THAT WATER HAS COVERED THE ROAD ON FM 1447...5 MILES NORTH OF CUERO
IN DEWITT COUNTY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 2 OR MORE INCHES IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THIS EVENING AND WILL LIKELY CAUSE ADDITIONAL FLOODING OF
ROADWAYS AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...CUERO...
YOAKUM...EZZELL...SPEAKS AND THOMASTON.

[Ptarmigan]

Interesting to see these storm remnants from last night have re-developed.

[Andrew]

For areas around Brazos:

FLASH FLOOD WARNING
TXC041-051-290300-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FF.W.0021.120329T0151Z-120329T0300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
851 PM CDT WED MAR 28 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
BURLESON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHERN BRAZOS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1000 PM CDT

* AT 840 PM CDT...THE BURLESON COUNTY SHERIFF`S OFFICE REPORTED
NUMEROUS ROADS UNDER WATER...AND WATER ENTERING THREE HOMES AND A
HOTEL IN CALDWELL. RADAR INDICATED SLOW MOVING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...LOCATED
IN THE WARNED AREA. RADAR INDICATES 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN HAS
ALREADY FALLEN...AND ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE.

* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
CALDWELL AND SNOOK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DEPTH AND SPEED OF FLASH FLOOD WATERS. ACT QUICKLY IF FLASH FLOODING
IS OBSERVED. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS
TO RISE.

&&

PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE COUNTY SHERIFF...LOCAL POLICE...
OR DEPARTMENT OF PUBLIC SAFETY AND ASK THEM TO RELAY YOUR REPORT TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3059 9693 3074 9662 3074 9660 3070 9656
3074 9649 3046 9614 3032 9661 3057 9695

$$

[srainhoutx]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms today and Friday.



A bit of a surprise yesterday as models failed to correctly solve the upper disturbance which evolved into a weak upper level low over the state. Afternoon convection was extremely efficient is producing some really big rainfall totals over portions of our northwest counties and southwest of the area where some locations picked up between 8-10 inches of rainfall. Slow storm motions in a highly moist air mass were the main culprits for flooding rainfall in some very localized areas.



Disturbance yesterday is now over extreme east TX while another weak disturbance has moved out of MX overnight and has resulted in a small area of organized storms over S TX early this morning (approaching Corpus Christi). Short term models are not all that aggressive with rain chances today, but they were not overly excited yesterday. Given radar trends down the coast from north of Corpus to near Victoria where a few showers are starting to develop…likely on the leading edge of lift from the disturbance combined with favorable low level flow off the Gulf suggest that an active day may be on tap. Air mass will destabilize with heating this morning and expect to see scattered showers and thunderstorms develop from late morning through early afternoon. No area is really favored over another, although the southern areas may see the brunt of the activity today with the track of the S TX disturbance and inland movement of the afternoon seabreeze. Texas Tech WRF was showing some development along some sort of a northward moving boundary later today, but it is widely scattered.



Convection will fire up again this evening over the mountains of Mexico and push eastward into SW and S TX again tonight…similar to the last several nights. A stronger disturbance moving out of Mexico tonight may help bring more organized storms across S TX and possibly further eastward than the past few nights. A general lack of good upper air data from MX is really causing some issues with the model guidance with these weak systems and their downstream impacts over TX. Meso scale events are the main driving forces under a weak upper level flow regime which are difficult to forecast.



Rainfall:

Very slow storm motions yesterday in a highly moist air mass produced some prodigious rainfall amounts in a very short period of time (4.5 inches in 2.5 hours under some cells). Air mass is similarly moist today and storm motions remain under 10mph. Feel that the threat for short term excessive rainfall remains, but with a lack of any surface focus there is no good boundary to anchor the storms on…not saying these storms that develop could not produce some sort of outflow boundary this afternoon that becomes an anchoring mechanism. For now will go with scattered amounts of .5 to 1 inch much like yesterday with a few locations getting much more (again this will be isolated, but where it happens some significant flooding may result).



Extended:

Upper flow becomes a little less noisy over the weekend ahead of a decent frontal passage aimed at the area for Monday. While winds turn SW ahead of the boundary (possibly advecting capping NE from MX), there still appears to be enough moisture and good lift with the boundary Monday afternoon to produce a band of thunderstorms.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z NAM (4km WRF/NMM) continues to advertise slow moving showers/storms across the area this afternoon/evening...

[srainhoutx]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1002 AM CDT THU MAR 29 2012

TXZ226-235-236-291600-
JACKSON-MATAGORDA-WHARTON-
1002 AM CDT THU MAR 29 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

AT 959 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
RAPIDLY DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORM OVER EAST CENTRAL JACKSON
COUNTY...NEAR LA WARD MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL...WINDS GREATER THAN 40 MPH...BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. RAINFALL RATES OF 2 INCHES
PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...MIDFIELD...LOUISE...
BLESSING AND LA WARD.

[djjordan]

Looks to be a wet afternoon ..... Light Rain in SGR attm .... looks to stay that way for most of the afternoon unless something heavier develops. Not really expecting it to though as much of the action is south of us and cloud cover may limit the heating.

[Ptarmigan]

Lightning, then thunder, under a most unimpressive 30 dbz return on the radar @ the Galleria.

I think I can explain seeing flashes/hearing thunder. I can almost imagine little baby spiral bands on the MCV...

Looks a bit like a tropical storm or hurricane.