March: Warm Days To End The Month With Isolated Showers

[djjordan]

Seeing more rain heading into SE Texas from the gulf. Not as heavy as the last round but it'll be enough to keep us wet this morning.

[txflagwaver]

Thunder and lightning like crazy here about 20 minutes ago...now light rain

[srainhoutx]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Pesky slow moving upper level storm over NW TX still affecting the area this morning with additional rain showers. Line of severe weather and heavy rainfall stalled out overnight near the Sabine River/extreme western Louisiana as models were suggesting and produced widespread rainfall of 8-10 inches from near Orange, TX to DeRidder, LA. Extensive and widespread flooding is ongoing across Orange and Newton Counties in eastern Texas and several parishes in western Louisiana.



Upper level storm should begin to move off to the NE on Thursday taking with it the rain chances by later today. Until then disturbances rotating around the low will continue to generate scattered areas of rainfall through midday. Even had a few lightning strikes and gusty winds this morning with the activity. Weak surface and high pressure aloft will result in sunny skies and seasonal March weather for the area Thursday through the weekend.



While no additional significant rainfall is expect over the region, the damage has already been done with respect to big river rises and potential river flooding from now through the weekend. Will cover all the rivers in a separate e-mail later this morning.





Tuesday Storm Reports:

Weimar, Colorado County: law enforcement report damage from strong winds



Bunker Hill Village, Harris: Funnel cloud sighted from Marathon Tower. Possible contact with ground.



Piney Point Village, Harris: Numerous large trees down



Bunker Hill Village, Harris: possible tornado. Trees and fences blowned down along the Beltway from I-10 to Westheimer



Pearland, Brazoria: possible tornado. Shingles blown off roofs and fences blown down in the South Fork Subdivision



Houston, Harris: damaging winds snapped trees and moved a parked truck



Jacinto City, Harris: Large trees uprooted, carports destroyed…estimated winds to 65mph.



Bellaire, Harris: trees down in the 4600 block of Gibson



Heights, Harris: large tree limb down on parked car at 18th and Heights.



Channelview, Harris: trees limbs down



The Woodlands, Montgomery: a few trees down on roads



Bacliff, Galveston: 35mph wind gust recorded by Eagle Point CMAN station



Port Bolivar, Chambers: 56mph wind gust recorded 6 miles offshore at Galveston Bay entrance buoy.



Rockport, Aransas: 42mph wind gust



Port O Connor, Calhoun: 42mph wind gust recorded at TCOON site



George West, Live Oak: 80mph downburst occurred with significant wind damage occurred for 1.5 miles by 2.5 miles wide. Metal roof blown off of two hotels, power poles snapped near their base, numerous trees downed…all pointing toward the ESE.



Bob Hall Pier, Nueces: 45mph wind gust



Rainfall:

Waco: 6.71 inches (4th highest 24 hour rainfall on record at this site). Wettest 24-hour period for the month of March (previous record was 4.22 inches on March 29-30, 2007)

College Station: 2.38 (broke old record daily rainfall for March 20 of 1.65 in 2006)

Brenham: 1.84

Crockett: 2.06

Madisonville: 2.28

Somerville Dam: 2.20

Liberty: 2.64



Radar Rainfall Estimates:

[srainhoutx]

Another update from Jeff:

There have been a couple of questions this morning on lake levels and how the rains have affected lake levels.



Lake Conroe: 198.42 (-2.58)

Lake Houston: 42.40 (+.40 over spillway)

Lake Buchanan: 994.73 (-23.27)

Lake Somerville: 239.91 (1.9 ft above conservation pool). This is a flood control lake and water is currently being held.

Sam Rayburn: 161.63 (-2.77)

Toledo Bend: 170.35 (-1.65), based on rainfall in E TX/W LA this lake will rise above its conservation pool.

Lake Livingston: 131.20 (+.20). Based on upstream rainfall over N TX flood gate operations are in progress at the lake releasing 19,000 cfs

Lake Travis: 633.57 (-47.43)

Lake Texana: 43.04 (-1.84)

Lake Limestone: 363.50 (+.50) Flood Gate operations are in progress with 5 gates opened 5.5 feet releasing 26,500 cfs into the Navasota River





Statewide storage is now at 73.94% up from a low of near 59% at the end of last summer.

[srainhoutx]

Update regarding area River Runoff from Jeff:

Ongoing run-off and lake/reservoir operations upstream will result in rises on area rivers into this weekend.



San Bernard River:

The flood warning has been cancelled at East Bernard and Boling. The river is near crest now and not expected to reach the forecast levels predicted yesterday. The river will remain high and overbanks, but impacts will be limited to mainly rural areas.



Brazos River:

Significant rises are ongoing at Bryan and will begin later today and early Thursday at Hempstead, Richmond, and Rosharon. While no flood stage are expected to be exceeded at least at Bryan, Hempstead, and Richmond, the river will be out of banks along the channel. Some impact is possible for areas along the River in Fort Bend County at level above 40 ft. Some back water effect will affect Rabbs Bayou in Greatwood and Bullhead Slough in Sugar Land. The river is forecasted to crest between 44-45 feet at Richmond. At 46 ft flooding begins to affect the Missouri City and Valley Lodge areas with flow several feet deep against several of the levees in Fort Bend County. Given the forecast for Richmond, and past experience with high flows on the Brazos, some impact and rise to/above flood stage at Rosharon is possible.



Navasota River:

Minor to moderate flooding is forecast from Lake Limestone downstream to the confluence with the Brazos River. All 5 flood gates at Lake Limestone are in operation this morning releasing 26,500 cfs.



At Normangee

Current Stage: 11.67 ft

Flood Stage: 15.0 ft

Forecast: a rise to near 19.8 ft Friday. At levels above 17 ft there is widespread inundation of the floodplain near the gage on HWY 21 with the river more than 1 mile wide. At levels above 18 ft the river becomes more than 1.5 miles wide flooding large sections of rural land near the river.



Colorado River:

Steep rises are in progress at Columbus and Wharton with the river having crested already upstream at La Grange. While the river will be high, no flooding is forecasted.



Trinity River:

Large amounts of run-off over north Texas will be generating a southward moving flood wave down the Trinity River. These high flows should reach Lake Livingston early to mid next week requiring increased releases and possible downstream flooding at Liberty and Moss Bluff.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

well hello El Nino! Indeed, those years that transition from La Nina to El Nino in less than 12 months time have some very exciting Winters.

I like!


Going to be a slow 2 weeks on this board. Some boring, dry, 80 degree weather coming up, which will allow the yard to dry out, but thats the only positive.

[Ptarmigan]

Waiting for sunshine and onshore flow to return.

No fun-derstorms in the immediate future, but the SST loop from AOML, March 10 through March 19th, killed all the sub 20ºC shelf water, and reduced most of the sub 21º shelf water. Yesterdays rain and clouds and runoff might set us back a bit, and I wish the Mexican highlands would have gotten more rain this late Winter, for an even cooler and more humid (ie, weaker) capping inversion, but I think, if it comes, we have built it, and this Spring won't be the dreadfully dull Cap Fest 2011 was. Maybe beyond the Day 10 range, animating the Euro ensembles from the ECMWF page we'll drift back into a stormy pattern.

And way long range, next Winter may be exciting. Now, fewer long tracked Atlantic storms, but really, we don't need something destroying freshly rebuilt vacation homes in Jamaica Beach this year, and, of course, a long tracked Atlantic storm that hits South of Miami as a Cat 5 and hits new Morgan City as a Cat 3 can still happen in a warm ENSO, and think of all the added cell phone and video cameras in Florida in the last 20 years.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... !chart.gif

I think we could see an El Nino by the end of the year. Winters that occurred in years that went from La Nina to El Nino tend to be cold and some of the coldest on record.

La Nina To El Nino Years
1972
1976
2006
2009

National Winter Temperature Ranking 1895-2011
1971-1972 33.17°F 58th La Nina
1972-1973 31.74°F 29th El Nino
1973-1974 33.85°F 79th La Nina
1974-1975 33.61°F 70th La Nina
1975-1976 35.21°F 101st La Nina
1976-1977 30.67°F 11th El Nino
1977-1978 29.68°F 7th El Nino
1978-1979 27.29°F 1st Neutral
1979-1980 33.95°F 84th Neutral

2001-2002 36.35°F 113th Neutral
2002-2003 34.20°F 89th El Nino
2003-2004 33.61°F 71st Neutral
2004-2005 35.91°F 63rd El Nino
2005-2006 36.10°F 109th La Nina
2006-2007 33.88°F 82nd El Nino
2007-2008 33.29°F 63rd La Nina
2008-2009 33.65°F 76th La Nina
2009-2010 31.12°F 15th El Nino
2010-2011 32.15°F 37th La Nina
2011-2012 36.80°F 115th La Nina

Bold denotes La Nina to El Nino year.

[jasons2k]

I measured a storm total of 1.70"

[Ptarmigan]

Waiting for sunshine and onshore flow to return.

No fun-derstorms in the immediate future, but the SST loop from AOML, March 10 through March 19th, killed all the sub 20ºC shelf water, and reduced most of the sub 21º shelf water. Yesterdays rain and clouds and runoff might set us back a bit, and I wish the Mexican highlands would have gotten more rain this late Winter, for an even cooler and more humid (ie, weaker) capping inversion, but I think, if it comes, we have built it, and this Spring won't be the dreadfully dull Cap Fest 2011 was. Maybe beyond the Day 10 range, animating the Euro ensembles from the ECMWF page we'll drift back into a stormy pattern.

And way long range, next Winter may be exciting. Now, fewer long tracked Atlantic storms, but really, we don't need something destroying freshly rebuilt vacation homes in Jamaica Beach this year, and, of course, a long tracked Atlantic storm that hits South of Miami as a Cat 5 and hits new Morgan City as a Cat 3 can still happen in a warm ENSO, and think of all the added cell phone and video cameras in Florida in the last 20 years.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... !chart.gif

I think we could see an El Nino by the end of the year. Winters that occurred in years that went from La Nina to El Nino tend to be cold and some of the coldest on record.

La Nina To El Nino Years
1972
1976
2006
2009

Upper Texas Coast
1971-1972 58.37°F 103rd La Nina
1972-1973 51.03°F 10th El Nino
1973-1974 55.73°F 72nd La Nina
1974-1975 56.00°F 79th La Nina
1975-1976 55.63°F 69th La Nina
1976-1977 50.23°F 6th El Nino
1977-1978 48.90°F 1st El Nino
1978-1979 50.70°F 9th Neutral
1979-1980 54.00°F 38th Neutral

2001-2002 55.50°F 64th Neutral
2002-2003 53.90°F 35th El Nino
2003-2004 54.60°F 52nd Neutral
2004-2005 56.60°F 90th El Nino
2005-2006 56.20°F 82nd La Nina
2006-2007 54.17°F 43rd El Nino
2007-2008 57.47°F 99th La Nina
2008-2009 57.33°F 97th La Nina
2009-2010 49.63°F 3rd El Nino
2010-2011 54.03°F 39th La Nina
2011-2012 57.70°F 100th La Nina

Bold denotes La Nina to El Nino year.

Interesting to note for Houston, years that went from La Nina to El Nino produced some of the coldest winters on record. 1972-1973 had three snowfall events, while 2009-2010 had two snowfall events, including the earliest on record. The late 1970s was cold.

[TexasBreeze]

If it was tc season, you could swear this large upper low was a broad inland tc with a feeder band from the gulf...

http://radar.weather.gov/Conus

http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/southmis ... e_loop.php

[Katdaddy]

I know one thing.....its WAY WAY too NICE outside to be at work today.

[srainhoutx]

What an absolutely gorgeous Spring day out there today. It appears we will have a great weekend with warming temps. The next chance of rain will begin increasing around the middle of next week as the guidance suggest a trough dropping S into Texas with short wave activity around Thursday-Friday with a developing upper low across the Lone Star State.

[sleetstorm]

What does the weather look like for Palm Sunday and Good Friday?

[niner21]

What does the weather look like for Palm Sunday and Good Friday?

Too soon to tell, but GFS suggests a couple of episodes of rain during Holy Week. Dry until then...

Thank the Lord... but seriously we're good for a few days with no rain.

I burried my lawn tractor about 4 times last week BEFORE that last round so my yard could use some low hummidity, 0 raindays. It did however allow me to get some of my remaining rye seed in and it's growing so I'll be able to seed bermuda back in behind the rye so it won't totally wash away (the rye, even dead, gives the bermuda a bed of sorts to stick in and then grow).

I'll take rain in the amount of 1" every Thursday at 9pm all summer long if someone's taking orders....

[weatherguy425]

I may be jumping the gun a little bit here, but it's a little worrisome seeing the models shift the storm track further to the north for the next couple of weeks. Evaporation rates and temperatures are both climbing steadily now, and I would hate to get stuck back in a drier pattern, especially since most lakes are finally near or at full capacity.

[srainhoutx]

What a gorgeous Chamber of Commerce Weekend across Texas. I hope everyone had a chance to get outside and enjoy the beautiful weather. The next chance of showers looks to come toward the end of the week and a new month begins. Perhaps someone would do us the honor of starting an April thread.

[Ptarmigan]

What a gorgeous Chamber of Commerce Weekend across Texas. I hope everyone had a chance to get outside and enjoy the beautiful weather. The next chance of showers looks to come toward the end of the week and a new month begins. Perhaps someone would do us the honor of starting an April thread.

Started that.

[wxman57]

Heading to Florida for the National Hurricane Conference in a few hours. Going to get with Phil Klotzbach tomorrow evening. He'll be speaking on Wednesday.

[srainhoutx]

Afternoon e-mail from Jeff:

Very nice Spring weather of late will transition to increasing clouds and rain chances by the end of the week.



Favorable low level flow off the Gulf is slowly increasing moisture across the area with skies partly cloudy with a scattered low level deck of cumulus and high level deck of cirrus over the region. Disturbances in the WSW flow aloft have been helping to fire off late afternoon/evening thunderstorms over the high terrain of NE Mexico which have moved across the border into TX. This activity has dissipated long before reaching SE TX.



Models are coming into decent agreement on pegging the Friday-Saturday period for the next round of local convection as a decent short wave moves across the state in the flow aloft. Moisture will deepen through the period peaking Friday afternoon in the 1.3-1.5 inch range along with a weakening of the capping aloft. Upper level winds become increasingly divergent Friday afternoon, but the area is lacking any sort of surface trigger. Feel that enough parameters are in place for showers/thunderstorms to develop without a surface trigger, but these storms may remain more scattered than the widespread nature of the past several systems. Not really looking at any severe of excessive rainfall threat either although a few storms could be locally strong with brief heavy rainfall, small hail, and gusty winds.



System will pass east of the area by midday on Saturday with partly cloudy skies returning and no change in the low level air mass. GFS shows a powerful cold front crossing the area early next week knocking temperatures down to below normal for early April…for now will go with a much more subdued forecast and weaker frontal passage. Not sure there will be ample moisture behind the Saturday system to spark additional rainfall early next week…plenty of time to watch and fine tune.



Hydro:

Still dealing with high flows on the Navasota, Brazos, and Trinity Rivers. Recessions are in progress on the Navasota and Brazos, but rises are forecasted on the lower Trinity as upstream run-off finally reaches the lower part of the river. Rises to flood stage are possible by this weekend at both Liberty and Moss Bluff. Rainfall in the Friday-Saturday time period does not appear to be great enough to result in additional run-off concerns or rises on the mainstem channels.



Note: EWX radar is down due to the first dual polarization upgrade of the 88D (NEXRAD). For more information see the link below

http://www.roc.noaa.gov/WSR88D/DualPol/Default.aspx

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z NAM (4km WRF/NMM) is suggesting a bit of mid/upper level energy skirting past the area later today. We'll see if there is enough of a 'trigger' to fire off some showers/storms as this disturbance moves across the area...