March: Warm Days To End The Month With Isolated Showers
While this system probably won't be called a drought buster, it's definitely a drought-busting primer. If we get "normal" rain, and a couple more of these, or a good tropical storm moving across Texas in the summer, and the drought could be in our rear view mirror.
That's the kind of rain we need, not the extremely heavy rain that falls in a hour.Katdaddy wrote:2.02" of soaking well needed rainfall here in League City. Watching more showers develop off the Middle TX Coast headed N toward SE TX.
texoz wrote:While this system probably won't be called a drought buster, it's definitely a drought-busting primer. If we get "normal" rain, and a couple more of these, or a good tropical storm moving across Texas in the summer, and the drought could be in our rear view mirror.
A true drought buster is when there is widespread rain all over Texas. A large portion of Texas is in a drought. If we could have a December 1991 type rain event, the drought would end.
Sounds like summer in terms of plenty of moisture in the air.srainhoutx wrote:Morning e-mail from Jeff:
Rainfall event underway across the region.
Strong upper level storm system over the SW US combined with stalled frontal boundary offshore, developing coastal surface trough/low, and weak disturbances in the SW flow aloft all producing periods of rainfall across the region since yesterday afternoon. Rainfall amounts so far have averaged 1-2 inches for many areas with a few locations over 3 inches.
Upper level storm will begin to translate eastward toward the TX/OK panhandle tonight into Sunday and this will bring the greatest chance of widespread heavy rainfall and thunderstorms to the region. Height falls over NW TX this afternoon will continue to force coastal surface low development near the low TX coast which will begin to lift northward tonight. Large swath of strong warm air advection just above the surface will continue to support bands of showers moving NNW off the Gulf into the coastal bend this afternoon and the coastal front and surface cold dome is overrun by warm moist air just above the surface.
As the stronger core of lift with the upper level storm moves eastward tonight, the low level jet will shift into eastern TX with PWS increasing to near 1.5-1.7 inches (2SD above normal for early March). Additionally, the coastal boundary offshore will attempt to retreat northward and may move inland by early Sunday morning adding a good low level focus for thunderstorms/heavy rainfall. Expect thunderstorms to develop tonight across central into north TX in the region of greatest lift and then spread ESE on Sunday. Storm motions will slow with time and training will become more common. With grounds now saturated from previous rainfall flooding/flash flooding will become a bigger threat on Sunday. Not very confident where the greatest rainfall potential will be, and not overly confident that the forecast models have a good handle on the meso scale situation which tends to drive these heavy rainfall events.
Additional rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches is likely with isolated amounts of 3-5 inches possible with storm totals from Thursday-Sunday approaching 3-4 inches and isolated amounts of 5-7 inches across the region.
A few thunderstorms will be possible tonight with the threat increasing on Sunday. At this time any severe threat should be just north of the area, but if the warm front moves inland then there could be a greater threat than current thinking suggest. Will take a closer look at the severe threat this afternoon.
Storm system will push eastward Monday, but air mass does not dry out greatly and moisture along with noisy upper level flow (disturbances aloft) look to keep some amount of rain chances in the forecast for much of next week. Likely a few days will have better chances than others. Temperatures will warm back to March levels of lows in the 60’s and highs in the upper 70’s with scattered afternoon showers.
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srainhoutx
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The 12Z GFS and Canadian are suggesting a bit of a break for the early afternoon hours before things ramp up again in the rainfall department. Both models suggest activity will increase during the over night hours into tomorrow and possible training cells with heavy rainfall rates increasing along Middle Texas Coast and into SE TX. The NAM (WRF/NMM) suggests heavier rains for the Central Texas region and points N and E toward the ARKLATX region. Latest Water Vapor Imagery suggest additional short wave energy moving out of Old Mexico heading E. Surface obs and radar data depict a surface low just SE of Rock Port with increasing SE winds gusting to near 30 mph offshore.
We’ll need to monitor the trends throughout the day, but indications are heavier rains will return and may well last well into Sunday with the favored areas being along and W of the HWY 59 Corridor. We will see.
As far as the extended forecast goes, it does appear we’ll get a break before repeating an active pattern late next week as a deep trough digs S into Old Mexico, W of the Intermountain West setting the stage for yet another upper low bringing additional rainfall to the Lone Star State. This active pattern appears to want to repeat about 6 days or so which will tend to go a long way to easing our drought situation across Texas.
12Z GFS:
12Z Canadian:
We’ll need to monitor the trends throughout the day, but indications are heavier rains will return and may well last well into Sunday with the favored areas being along and W of the HWY 59 Corridor. We will see.
As far as the extended forecast goes, it does appear we’ll get a break before repeating an active pattern late next week as a deep trough digs S into Old Mexico, W of the Intermountain West setting the stage for yet another upper low bringing additional rainfall to the Lone Star State. This active pattern appears to want to repeat about 6 days or so which will tend to go a long way to easing our drought situation across Texas.
12Z GFS:
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It's clearing up here in Stafford. While still cloudy, can almost see the sun trying to peek through those clouds.
check out the 7 day rainfall totals in Kauai!! Nearly 46 inches of rain. (see link below)
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=2048
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=2048
Those are some amazing rainfall totals in Hawaii. If we had that kind of rain here in that span there would obviously be some serious problems here. 3" hail and a tornado in Hawaii??? Glad I didn't pick this past week to visit the islands LOL.
~~~When Thunder Roars Go Indoors~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
That is the annual average rainfall total for Houston! Well, Claudette dumped 45 inches and Amelia dumped 48 inches of rain.texoz wrote:check out the 7 day rainfall totals in Kauai!! Nearly 46 inches of rain. (see link below)
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=2048
So far I've measured 1.54" from the last two days. The next round is starting-up now...
I'm getting some good booming thunder here - that cell about to cross I-45 near Spring looks like a pretty potent storm.
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srainhoutx
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The over night operational guidance continues to advertise showers/storms will become active later this norning as the upper trough/low swings E and the closed U/L lifts NE into the Southern Plains. Mid level drying is noted on WV imagery across Central TX and the last of a series of short waves now located near S Central TX will trek E in the SW flow aloft increasing aerial coverage of rains throughout the morning. A band of S to N line of showers has developed across W Harris/Ft Bend & Brazoria Counties early this morning streaming rich Gulf moisture inland as the front has retreat N ahead of the approaching trough axis and a Coastal surface low continues to meander near Matagorda Bay as surface winds have turned SE assuring a warmer day and possible breaks in the clouds lending to destabilization and scattered storm development. The SPC reconfigured the Slight Risk area further S over night to include our NE zones as well. The NAM is the 'driest' of the models with the Euro/GFS/CMC & UKMet all suggesting showers with embedded storms developing along and ahead of the trough. It appears we may see a period of 12 or so hours of rainfall chances before all is said and done today. Where training sets up will be important and where flood potential may need to be monitored. We'll see how things develop as the day progresses.
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srainhoutx
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0240
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0756 AM CDT SUN MAR 11 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL TX TO FAR WESTERN LA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 111256Z - 111530Z
AN ISOLATED TORNADO/DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL MAY DEVELOP/GRADUALLY
INCREASE THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST INTO EAST-CENTRAL
TX/EVENTUALLY FAR WESTERN LA. INITIAL THINKING IS THAT A WATCH COULD
BE NEEDED AS EARLY AS MID/LATE MORNING ACROSS THE REGION.
PER LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS...A MODIFIED GULF AIRMASS WITH
MIDDLE/UPPER 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SPREAD
NORTHWARD ALONG THE UPPER TX COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH ELEVATED
TSTMS ONGOING EARLY DAY ACROSS THE TX HILL COUNTRY...THE GRAZING
SOUTHERN INFLUENCE OF A CLOSED CYCLONE CENTERED/MOVING NORTHEASTWARD
OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL LIKELY INTERACT WITH THIS
INCREASINGLY MOIST/POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
INTO EAST-CENTRAL TX/FAR WESTERN LA TODAY. AS SUCH...SURFACE BASED
TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME MORE PREVALENT WITHIN THE WARM/MOIST
SECTOR AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING SURFACE TROUGH/WEAK FRONT...WITH
INCIPIENT SIGNS OF WEAK SUPERCELL STRUCTURES/INCREASING CG LIGHTNING
ALREADY NOTED NORTH OF HOUSTON VICINITY. ACCORDINGLY...THE LATEST
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE...INCLUDING CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS SUCH AS
THE 00Z WRF-NMM AND SPC EXPERIMENTAL SSEO...IMPLY THAT STORMS SHOULD
GRADUALLY DEVELOP/MATURE INTO LATE MORNING/MIDDAY WITHIN A
PERSISTENT SSW-NNE CORRIDOR OF INCREASING MOIST/CONFLUENT LOW-LEVEL
FLOW. GIVEN THIS ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION/THERMODYNAMIC TRENDS...SHEAR
PROFILES COINCIDENT WITH THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A MODERATELY STRONG
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED/EMBEDDED
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF A FEW TORNADOES ALONG WITH DAMAGING
WINDS/SOME HAIL.
..GUYER.. 03/11/2012
ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0756 AM CDT SUN MAR 11 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL TX TO FAR WESTERN LA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 111256Z - 111530Z
AN ISOLATED TORNADO/DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL MAY DEVELOP/GRADUALLY
INCREASE THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST INTO EAST-CENTRAL
TX/EVENTUALLY FAR WESTERN LA. INITIAL THINKING IS THAT A WATCH COULD
BE NEEDED AS EARLY AS MID/LATE MORNING ACROSS THE REGION.
PER LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS...A MODIFIED GULF AIRMASS WITH
MIDDLE/UPPER 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SPREAD
NORTHWARD ALONG THE UPPER TX COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH ELEVATED
TSTMS ONGOING EARLY DAY ACROSS THE TX HILL COUNTRY...THE GRAZING
SOUTHERN INFLUENCE OF A CLOSED CYCLONE CENTERED/MOVING NORTHEASTWARD
OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL LIKELY INTERACT WITH THIS
INCREASINGLY MOIST/POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
INTO EAST-CENTRAL TX/FAR WESTERN LA TODAY. AS SUCH...SURFACE BASED
TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME MORE PREVALENT WITHIN THE WARM/MOIST
SECTOR AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING SURFACE TROUGH/WEAK FRONT...WITH
INCIPIENT SIGNS OF WEAK SUPERCELL STRUCTURES/INCREASING CG LIGHTNING
ALREADY NOTED NORTH OF HOUSTON VICINITY. ACCORDINGLY...THE LATEST
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE...INCLUDING CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS SUCH AS
THE 00Z WRF-NMM AND SPC EXPERIMENTAL SSEO...IMPLY THAT STORMS SHOULD
GRADUALLY DEVELOP/MATURE INTO LATE MORNING/MIDDAY WITHIN A
PERSISTENT SSW-NNE CORRIDOR OF INCREASING MOIST/CONFLUENT LOW-LEVEL
FLOW. GIVEN THIS ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION/THERMODYNAMIC TRENDS...SHEAR
PROFILES COINCIDENT WITH THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A MODERATELY STRONG
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED/EMBEDDED
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF A FEW TORNADOES ALONG WITH DAMAGING
WINDS/SOME HAIL.
..GUYER.. 03/11/2012
ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...
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Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
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srainhoutx
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DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0748 AM CDT SUN MAR 11 2012
VALID 111300Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN AND SE TX NNE INTO THE
OZARKS AND LWR MS VLY...
...SYNOPSIS...
TX PANHANDLE UPR LOW SHOULD ACCELERATE NEWD THIS PERIOD AS CYCLONIC
NRN STREAM JET PERSISTS FROM THE NE PACIFIC ACROSS WA/ORE AND THE
NRN RCKYS INTO SK/MB. THE TX LOW SHOULD REACH CNTRL KS THIS EVE AND
NW IA EARLY MON...AS ASSOCIATED VORT LOBE NOW OVER W TX ASSUMES A
NEGATIVE TILT AND PIVOTS NE INTO WRN MO/NW AR THIS EVE...AND INTO
ERN IA/NRN IL BY 12Z MON.
AT LWR LVLS...A BROAD ZONE OF LOW LVL S TO SWLY FLOW WILL PERSIST
OVER THE PLNS AND MS VLY. WHILE FRONTAL FEATURES WILL REMAIN WEAK
OR NON-EXISTENT...A CONFLUENCE ZONE SEPARATING MODIFIED GULF AIR
FROM AIR ORIGINATING OVER NRN MEXICO AND SW TX WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED FROM SABINE RVR VLY NNE INTO THE WRN OZARKS TODAY. THIS
FEATURE LIKELY WILL SERVE AS THE MAIN FOCUS OF STRONG TO POTENTIALLY
SVR TSTMS THIS PERIOD.
...SE TX/LA NEWD INTO OZARKS TODAY/TNGT...
SHOWERS AND TSTMS SHOULD SLOWLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND STRENGTH
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING FROM E CNTRL TX AND THE MIDDLE
TX GULF CSTL PLN NEWD INTO THE ARKLATEX AS UPR DIVERGENCE/ASCENT
INCREASE AHEAD OF SRN PART OF AFOREMENTIONED VORT LOBE. OTHER
STORMS...LIKELY MORE ELEVATED...SHOULD SIMULTANEOUSLY INCREASE FROM
N TX AND ERN OK INTO SE KS...NW AR...AND SW MO.
CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION AND MODEST MID LVL LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT
DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION ACROSS SLGT RISK AREA TODAY.
NEVERTHELESS...COMBINATION OF INCREASING LOW LVL MOISTURE AND
FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF SFC OR NEAR
SFC-BASED STORMS ALONG SSW-NNE CONFLUENCE ZONE FROM SE TX INTO THE
ARKLATEX LATER THIS MORNING. COUPLED WITH STRONG WIND FIELD AND
HODOGRAPHS THAT WILL EXHIBIT SUBSTANTIAL LOW TO MID LEVEL VEERING
/I.E...40-50 KT SSWLY 850 MB FLOW BENEATH 50-60 KT SW WINDS AT 500
MB/...EXPECT SCTD SUSTAINED STORMS/SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF BOTH
TORNADOES AND DMGG WIND.
WIND PROFILES AND THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SUGGEST THAT THE STORMS
MAY ORGANIZE INTO ONE OR TWO BROKEN BANDS ORIENTED ROUGHLY PARALLEL
TO THE CONFLUENCE AXIS. THESE BANDS SHOULD MOVE/DEVELOP NNE INTO
CNTRL AR AND NW LA BY EVE. WHILE THE GREATEST SVR RISK SHOULD EXIST
BETWEEN MID AFTN AND EARLY TNGT FROM E TX INTO PARTS OF AR AND
LA...A LIMITED SVR RISK MAY CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY MON NEWD INTO
PARTS OF MO...SRN IL...WRN KY...AND WRN TN AS LOW LVL SPEED MAX
STRENGTHENS AND MOVES NEWD WITH STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT.
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0748 AM CDT SUN MAR 11 2012
VALID 111300Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN AND SE TX NNE INTO THE
OZARKS AND LWR MS VLY...
...SYNOPSIS...
TX PANHANDLE UPR LOW SHOULD ACCELERATE NEWD THIS PERIOD AS CYCLONIC
NRN STREAM JET PERSISTS FROM THE NE PACIFIC ACROSS WA/ORE AND THE
NRN RCKYS INTO SK/MB. THE TX LOW SHOULD REACH CNTRL KS THIS EVE AND
NW IA EARLY MON...AS ASSOCIATED VORT LOBE NOW OVER W TX ASSUMES A
NEGATIVE TILT AND PIVOTS NE INTO WRN MO/NW AR THIS EVE...AND INTO
ERN IA/NRN IL BY 12Z MON.
AT LWR LVLS...A BROAD ZONE OF LOW LVL S TO SWLY FLOW WILL PERSIST
OVER THE PLNS AND MS VLY. WHILE FRONTAL FEATURES WILL REMAIN WEAK
OR NON-EXISTENT...A CONFLUENCE ZONE SEPARATING MODIFIED GULF AIR
FROM AIR ORIGINATING OVER NRN MEXICO AND SW TX WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED FROM SABINE RVR VLY NNE INTO THE WRN OZARKS TODAY. THIS
FEATURE LIKELY WILL SERVE AS THE MAIN FOCUS OF STRONG TO POTENTIALLY
SVR TSTMS THIS PERIOD.
...SE TX/LA NEWD INTO OZARKS TODAY/TNGT...
SHOWERS AND TSTMS SHOULD SLOWLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND STRENGTH
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING FROM E CNTRL TX AND THE MIDDLE
TX GULF CSTL PLN NEWD INTO THE ARKLATEX AS UPR DIVERGENCE/ASCENT
INCREASE AHEAD OF SRN PART OF AFOREMENTIONED VORT LOBE. OTHER
STORMS...LIKELY MORE ELEVATED...SHOULD SIMULTANEOUSLY INCREASE FROM
N TX AND ERN OK INTO SE KS...NW AR...AND SW MO.
CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION AND MODEST MID LVL LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT
DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION ACROSS SLGT RISK AREA TODAY.
NEVERTHELESS...COMBINATION OF INCREASING LOW LVL MOISTURE AND
FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF SFC OR NEAR
SFC-BASED STORMS ALONG SSW-NNE CONFLUENCE ZONE FROM SE TX INTO THE
ARKLATEX LATER THIS MORNING. COUPLED WITH STRONG WIND FIELD AND
HODOGRAPHS THAT WILL EXHIBIT SUBSTANTIAL LOW TO MID LEVEL VEERING
/I.E...40-50 KT SSWLY 850 MB FLOW BENEATH 50-60 KT SW WINDS AT 500
MB/...EXPECT SCTD SUSTAINED STORMS/SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF BOTH
TORNADOES AND DMGG WIND.
WIND PROFILES AND THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SUGGEST THAT THE STORMS
MAY ORGANIZE INTO ONE OR TWO BROKEN BANDS ORIENTED ROUGHLY PARALLEL
TO THE CONFLUENCE AXIS. THESE BANDS SHOULD MOVE/DEVELOP NNE INTO
CNTRL AR AND NW LA BY EVE. WHILE THE GREATEST SVR RISK SHOULD EXIST
BETWEEN MID AFTN AND EARLY TNGT FROM E TX INTO PARTS OF AR AND
LA...A LIMITED SVR RISK MAY CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY MON NEWD INTO
PARTS OF MO...SRN IL...WRN KY...AND WRN TN AS LOW LVL SPEED MAX
STRENGTHENS AND MOVES NEWD WITH STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
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srainhoutx
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From Nesdis:
SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 03/11/12 1404Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13 1345Z JBN
.
LOCATION...LOUISIANA...ARKANSAS...TEXAS...OKLAHOMA...
.
ATTN WFOS...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...
ATTN RFCS...LMRFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...
.
EVENT...INTENSIFYING CONVECTION OVER ERN TX
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...LATEST GOES WV IMAGERY SHOWS A SOMEWHAT
COMPLEX SET UP ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNIGN WITH AMID/UL LOW CENTERED
OVER THER OK PANHANDLE AND SEVERAL WEAKER SHORTWVAES M OVING NEWD
ACROSS ERN TX/OK/KS ATTM. A NICE PLUME OF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE
PULLED NWWD BY THE MID/UL LOW AND EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TO SE
NEBRASKA. HIGHEST PWATS NOW OVER SE TX/LA WHERE VALUES ARE NOW AVERAGING
1.4-1.6" PER BLENDED TPW IMAGERY AND 12Z RAOB SOUNDINGS. CONVECTION NOW
OVER ERN TX IS SHOWING SIGNS OF INTENSIFYING IN IR IMAGERY BY THE RECENT
COOLING/EXPANDING TRENDS TAKING PLACE. THIS ENHANCEMENT IS PROBABLY
BEING AIDED BY ONE OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED SHORTWAVES ENCOUNTERING THE
DEEPER MOISTURE VALUES IN PLACE ACROSS SERN TX ATTM.MANUAL SATELLITE
ESTIMATE TECHNIQUES SUGGEST RAIN RATES IN THE 1-1.5"/30 MIN RANGE ATTM.
COULD SEE THE THREAT FOR MOD/HVY RAIN INCREASE A BIT THE NEXT FEW HRS AS
THE CONVECTION COULD INTENSIFY FURTHER AND RAIN RATES COULD INCREASE A
BIT MORE. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE RUNNING IN THE 1.5/3.0"/HR
RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WITH THE LOWER VALUES SHOWING UP WHERE
MOD/HVY RAIN OCCURED YESTERDAY. WHILE IT MAY BE TOUGH TO REACH SOME OF
THE HIGHER AMTS NEEDED FOR FLOODING, COULD SEE HOW A FEW AREAS END UP
WITH 1-2" OF RAIN THE NEXT 2-3 HRS WHICH COULD CREATE SOME MINOR FLOODING
ISSUES ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA.
.
AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION THREAT AREA
SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY
10-15 MINUTES.
.
SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 14Z-18Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT
TERM OUTLOOK...THREAT FOR MOD/HVY RAIN MAY BE INCREASING A BIT AS
CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED/INTENSIFYING ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION AREA. WHILE SHORTWAVE OVER E TX SHOULD KEEP THINGS MOVING
ALONG, COULD SEE HOW CONVECTION MAY TRY TO TRAIN OVER A FEW AREAS FOR
A TIME IF IT WERE TO ORGANIZE INTO A SW TO NE OREITNED BAND. THIS MAY
LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS THAT COULD COME CLOSE TO
REACHING THE FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES.
SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 03/11/12 1404Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13 1345Z JBN
.
LOCATION...LOUISIANA...ARKANSAS...TEXAS...OKLAHOMA...
.
ATTN WFOS...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...
ATTN RFCS...LMRFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...
.
EVENT...INTENSIFYING CONVECTION OVER ERN TX
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...LATEST GOES WV IMAGERY SHOWS A SOMEWHAT
COMPLEX SET UP ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNIGN WITH AMID/UL LOW CENTERED
OVER THER OK PANHANDLE AND SEVERAL WEAKER SHORTWVAES M OVING NEWD
ACROSS ERN TX/OK/KS ATTM. A NICE PLUME OF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE
PULLED NWWD BY THE MID/UL LOW AND EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TO SE
NEBRASKA. HIGHEST PWATS NOW OVER SE TX/LA WHERE VALUES ARE NOW AVERAGING
1.4-1.6" PER BLENDED TPW IMAGERY AND 12Z RAOB SOUNDINGS. CONVECTION NOW
OVER ERN TX IS SHOWING SIGNS OF INTENSIFYING IN IR IMAGERY BY THE RECENT
COOLING/EXPANDING TRENDS TAKING PLACE. THIS ENHANCEMENT IS PROBABLY
BEING AIDED BY ONE OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED SHORTWAVES ENCOUNTERING THE
DEEPER MOISTURE VALUES IN PLACE ACROSS SERN TX ATTM.MANUAL SATELLITE
ESTIMATE TECHNIQUES SUGGEST RAIN RATES IN THE 1-1.5"/30 MIN RANGE ATTM.
COULD SEE THE THREAT FOR MOD/HVY RAIN INCREASE A BIT THE NEXT FEW HRS AS
THE CONVECTION COULD INTENSIFY FURTHER AND RAIN RATES COULD INCREASE A
BIT MORE. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE RUNNING IN THE 1.5/3.0"/HR
RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WITH THE LOWER VALUES SHOWING UP WHERE
MOD/HVY RAIN OCCURED YESTERDAY. WHILE IT MAY BE TOUGH TO REACH SOME OF
THE HIGHER AMTS NEEDED FOR FLOODING, COULD SEE HOW A FEW AREAS END UP
WITH 1-2" OF RAIN THE NEXT 2-3 HRS WHICH COULD CREATE SOME MINOR FLOODING
ISSUES ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA.
.
AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION THREAT AREA
SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY
10-15 MINUTES.
.
SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 14Z-18Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT
TERM OUTLOOK...THREAT FOR MOD/HVY RAIN MAY BE INCREASING A BIT AS
CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED/INTENSIFYING ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION AREA. WHILE SHORTWAVE OVER E TX SHOULD KEEP THINGS MOVING
ALONG, COULD SEE HOW CONVECTION MAY TRY TO TRAIN OVER A FEW AREAS FOR
A TIME IF IT WERE TO ORGANIZE INTO A SW TO NE OREITNED BAND. THIS MAY
LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS THAT COULD COME CLOSE TO
REACHING THE FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
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Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Is this the last round of rain? if so it looks like it will be done by noon
well these storms to our southwest look to be the last of it. I don't see anything else forming to the west. Lets hope these storms are good
-
srainhoutx
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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1059 AM CDT SUN MAR 11 2012
TXZ199-212-213-227-236-237-111700-
BRAZORIA-FORT BEND-HARRIS-MATAGORDA-MONTGOMERY-WALLER-
1059 AM CDT SUN MAR 11 2012
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO HARRIS...FT BEND AND BRAZORIA
COUNTIES...
AT 1052 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 14 MILES NORTHWEST
OF KATY TO SWEENY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.
PEA SIZE HAIL...WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.
THESE STORMS WILL ALSO BE MONITORED FOR ANY STRENGTHENING. STAY TUNED
FOR ANY WARNINGS SHOULD THEY BECOME NECESSARY.
LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...ROSHARON...
MEMORIAL...JULIFF...DAMON...CHOCOLATE BAYOU...ADDICKS...WEST
UNIVERSITY PLACE...WEST COLUMBIA...TOWN WEST...TOMBALL...THOMPSONS...
THE WOODLANDS...SWEENY...SUGAR LAND...STAFFORD...SPRING VALLEY...
ROSENBERG...RICHWOOD...RICHMOND...PINEY POINT VILLAGE...PECAN
GROVE...PEARLAND...MISSOURI CITY...MISSION BEND...MEADOWS...MANVEL...
LIVERPOOL...LAKE JACKSON...KATY...JERSEY VILLAGE...IOWA COLONY...
HUNTERS CREEK VILLAGE...HOUSTON...HILSHIRE VILLAGE...FULSHEAR...
FRESNO...FIRST COLONY...CHATEAU WOODS...BUNKER HILL VILLAGE...
BONNEY...BELLAIRE...BAILEY`S PRAIRIE...ARCOLA...ANGLETON...ALVIN AND
ALDINE.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1059 AM CDT SUN MAR 11 2012
TXZ199-212-213-227-236-237-111700-
BRAZORIA-FORT BEND-HARRIS-MATAGORDA-MONTGOMERY-WALLER-
1059 AM CDT SUN MAR 11 2012
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO HARRIS...FT BEND AND BRAZORIA
COUNTIES...
AT 1052 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 14 MILES NORTHWEST
OF KATY TO SWEENY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.
PEA SIZE HAIL...WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.
THESE STORMS WILL ALSO BE MONITORED FOR ANY STRENGTHENING. STAY TUNED
FOR ANY WARNINGS SHOULD THEY BECOME NECESSARY.
LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...ROSHARON...
MEMORIAL...JULIFF...DAMON...CHOCOLATE BAYOU...ADDICKS...WEST
UNIVERSITY PLACE...WEST COLUMBIA...TOWN WEST...TOMBALL...THOMPSONS...
THE WOODLANDS...SWEENY...SUGAR LAND...STAFFORD...SPRING VALLEY...
ROSENBERG...RICHWOOD...RICHMOND...PINEY POINT VILLAGE...PECAN
GROVE...PEARLAND...MISSOURI CITY...MISSION BEND...MEADOWS...MANVEL...
LIVERPOOL...LAKE JACKSON...KATY...JERSEY VILLAGE...IOWA COLONY...
HUNTERS CREEK VILLAGE...HOUSTON...HILSHIRE VILLAGE...FULSHEAR...
FRESNO...FIRST COLONY...CHATEAU WOODS...BUNKER HILL VILLAGE...
BONNEY...BELLAIRE...BAILEY`S PRAIRIE...ARCOLA...ANGLETON...ALVIN AND
ALDINE.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity