April Weather Discussion.
12z NAM continues to show marginal conditions for severe weather here Friday. Cape (red line) tops at around 1750 ('moderate') and Total Totals (blue line) tops around 50 (scattered thunderstorms, some possibly severe.) Of course we still have our old friend, The Cap, to deal with again too.
The cockroach cap is still at it.wxdata wrote:12z NAM continues to show marginal conditions for severe weather here Friday. Cape (red line) tops at around 1750 ('moderate') and Total Totals (blue line) tops around 50 (scattered thunderstorms, some possibly severe.) Of course we still have our old friend, The Cap, to deal with again too.
Might as well get a bunch of RAID cans and spray it on the cockroach cap.Ed Mahmoud wrote: The 0Z NAM says no dice on Friday.
Sim radar shows a few cells trying to pop in NE Texas, and NAM soundings looks decent for severe around Longview. Still a warm nose around 700 mb, but not as strong, and looks like daytime heating might be just enough.
GFS is pretty much in line with the NAM in regards to capping. Even with a LI of -7.2°, cloud cover will keep severe chances slim at KIAH. However the GFS is coming in much wetter for the weekend than the NAM. SPC is pretty much in agreement with now keeping Houston on the extreme southern edge of the slight risk area.
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biggerbyte
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- Location: Porter, Texas. (Montgomery County)
- Contact:
Unlike last weekend, I see little hope of this cap breaking down. Now watch it pour down rain. Lol
It could start to get dry at someone's house besides Ed.
It could start to get dry at someone's house besides Ed.
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srainhoutx
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- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
- Contact:
Capping will be the issue "locally tomorrow". But as we head into May and wxdata's thread, perhaps a better chance of some rain and hotter temps. Right on schedule...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
356 PM CDT THU APR 29 2010
.DISCUSSION...
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT RESULTING IN GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTN. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS GRADUALLY
INCREASING WITH PWS NOW AROUND AN INCH AND SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE
60S. 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
TRANSPORTING EVEN DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THE COMBINATION
OF WARM ADVECTION AND THE DEEPENING MOISTURE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT SHOWERS BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. EXTENSIVE STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUING. PWS ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 1.4-1.6 INCHES BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. AS SFC
TEMPS WARM INTO THE 80S...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME MODERATELY
UNSTABLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH CAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONG CAP AROUND 800 MB WHICH
WILL BE DIFFICULT TO ERODE GIVEN THE LACK OF ANY SFC BOUNDARY IN
THE AREA. BEST CHANCE OF CAP ERODING WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN
THIRD FRIDAY AFTERNOON. GFS SHOWS UPPER FLOW BECOMING MORE
DIFFLUENT FRIDAY AS 120 KT JET MAX APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. A
WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS AS WELL.
EXPECT TSRA TO DEVELOP TO OUR NORTH FRI AFTN WITH OUR NRN ZONES
BEING ON THE TAIL END OF THIS. ANY STORMS THAT MANAGE TO BREAK THE
CAP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE GIVEN THE STRONG LOW
LEVEL SHEAR (HELICITIES > 200 M2/S2) IN PLACE. FOR CENTRAL/SRN
ZONES...THINK CAP WILL HOLD WITH JUST SOME SHALLOW CONVECTION
POSSIBLE. HAVE TAPERED POPS FROM 40S/50S NORTHEAST TO 20S ALONG
THE COAST. A STRONGER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS TEXAS
SATURDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE SATURDAY.
CAPPING SHOULD BE WEAKER ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH SATURDAY AS
MODELS SHOW TEMPS COOLING AT THE MID LEVELS. SFC FRONT WILL
APPROACH OUR NW ZONES SAT AFTN AND WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. ONCE AGAIN...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED SEVERE MAINLY OVER THE NRN ZONES. WILL
MAINTAIN SIMILAR POPS TO FRIDAY...40S OVER THE NORTHEAST TAPERING
DOWN TO 20S ALONG THE COAST WHERE CAPPING WILL BE STRONGER. LATEST
NAM/GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SATURDAY`S DISTURBANCE WILL
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH THE FRONT SLOWLY THROUGH THE AREA SAT
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE
(PWS 1.5-1.7 INCHES) AND GOOD CONVERGENCE AT THE SFC AND LOW
LEVELS WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SAT
NIGHT/SUNDAY. DO NOT SEE A SEVERE THREAT THIS PERIOD AS THE SHEAR
WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY. THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST LATE
SUNDAY BEFORE STALLING. DRIER AIRMASS SPREADS ACROSS SE TX SUN
NIGHT/MONDAY WITH PWS DROPPING TO BELOW AN INCH. MODELS SHOW A
STRONG SHORTWAVE PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AFTN/EVENING.
GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM...HAVE TOSSED 20 POPS IN THE
FORECAST MON AFTN/EVENING DESPITE THE DRIER AIRMASS.
OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS EXPECTED THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL START TO GET PRETTY WARM BY THE
LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
356 PM CDT THU APR 29 2010
.DISCUSSION...
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT RESULTING IN GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTN. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS GRADUALLY
INCREASING WITH PWS NOW AROUND AN INCH AND SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE
60S. 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
TRANSPORTING EVEN DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THE COMBINATION
OF WARM ADVECTION AND THE DEEPENING MOISTURE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT SHOWERS BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. EXTENSIVE STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUING. PWS ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 1.4-1.6 INCHES BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. AS SFC
TEMPS WARM INTO THE 80S...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME MODERATELY
UNSTABLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH CAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONG CAP AROUND 800 MB WHICH
WILL BE DIFFICULT TO ERODE GIVEN THE LACK OF ANY SFC BOUNDARY IN
THE AREA. BEST CHANCE OF CAP ERODING WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN
THIRD FRIDAY AFTERNOON. GFS SHOWS UPPER FLOW BECOMING MORE
DIFFLUENT FRIDAY AS 120 KT JET MAX APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. A
WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS AS WELL.
EXPECT TSRA TO DEVELOP TO OUR NORTH FRI AFTN WITH OUR NRN ZONES
BEING ON THE TAIL END OF THIS. ANY STORMS THAT MANAGE TO BREAK THE
CAP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE GIVEN THE STRONG LOW
LEVEL SHEAR (HELICITIES > 200 M2/S2) IN PLACE. FOR CENTRAL/SRN
ZONES...THINK CAP WILL HOLD WITH JUST SOME SHALLOW CONVECTION
POSSIBLE. HAVE TAPERED POPS FROM 40S/50S NORTHEAST TO 20S ALONG
THE COAST. A STRONGER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS TEXAS
SATURDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE SATURDAY.
CAPPING SHOULD BE WEAKER ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH SATURDAY AS
MODELS SHOW TEMPS COOLING AT THE MID LEVELS. SFC FRONT WILL
APPROACH OUR NW ZONES SAT AFTN AND WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. ONCE AGAIN...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED SEVERE MAINLY OVER THE NRN ZONES. WILL
MAINTAIN SIMILAR POPS TO FRIDAY...40S OVER THE NORTHEAST TAPERING
DOWN TO 20S ALONG THE COAST WHERE CAPPING WILL BE STRONGER. LATEST
NAM/GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SATURDAY`S DISTURBANCE WILL
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH THE FRONT SLOWLY THROUGH THE AREA SAT
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE
(PWS 1.5-1.7 INCHES) AND GOOD CONVERGENCE AT THE SFC AND LOW
LEVELS WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SAT
NIGHT/SUNDAY. DO NOT SEE A SEVERE THREAT THIS PERIOD AS THE SHEAR
WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY. THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST LATE
SUNDAY BEFORE STALLING. DRIER AIRMASS SPREADS ACROSS SE TX SUN
NIGHT/MONDAY WITH PWS DROPPING TO BELOW AN INCH. MODELS SHOW A
STRONG SHORTWAVE PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AFTN/EVENING.
GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM...HAVE TOSSED 20 POPS IN THE
FORECAST MON AFTN/EVENING DESPITE THE DRIER AIRMASS.
OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS EXPECTED THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL START TO GET PRETTY WARM BY THE
LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
-
biggerbyte
- Posts: 1142
- Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 12:15 am
- Location: Porter, Texas. (Montgomery County)
- Contact:
Don't you dread hurricane season? I was just watching some Ike videos on YouTube. Man, what a mess. Watching it head this way on radar again was really "eye opening". I always hate it when our Spring is dry. Mother Nature always has her way of shifting things around. Dry Spring could mean wet summer, which usually translates to tropical trouble around here.
Upper Texas Coast April rainfall from 1895-2009.
Average April Rainfall=3.39"
Standard Deviation=2.061787
Average May to August Rainfall =17.53"
Standard Deviation=5.720275
Wettest April
1900-8.97"
May-August 1900 Total-26.24"
Driest April
1987-0.19"
May-August 1987 Total-24.44"
May to August Average Based on April rainfall total
Quartile 1 >1.9
May-August Mean=17.50"
Standard Deviation=6.308
Min=10.24"
Max=30.45"
Quartile 2 1.91-2.79
May-August Mean=17.35"
Standard Deviation=5.710
Min=7.37"
Max=31.64"
Quartile 3 2 2.8-4.74
May-August Mean=16.92"
Standard Deviation=5.024
Min=9.11"
Max=28.35"
Quartile 4 >4.75
May-August Mean=18.37"
Standard Deviation=5.968
Min=7.36"
Max=29.99"
Scatter Plot
Correlation Value=0.047294
April rainfall is not strongly correlated with how wet May to August will be. In terms of average, a drier April is not much wetter than the overall average. However, dry Aprils have given way to wet May to August.
http://www7.ncdc.noaa.gov/CDO/CDODivisionalSelect.jsp
Average April Rainfall=3.39"
Standard Deviation=2.061787
Average May to August Rainfall =17.53"
Standard Deviation=5.720275
Wettest April
1900-8.97"
May-August 1900 Total-26.24"
Driest April
1987-0.19"
May-August 1987 Total-24.44"
May to August Average Based on April rainfall total
Quartile 1 >1.9
May-August Mean=17.50"
Standard Deviation=6.308
Min=10.24"
Max=30.45"
Quartile 2 1.91-2.79
May-August Mean=17.35"
Standard Deviation=5.710
Min=7.37"
Max=31.64"
Quartile 3 2 2.8-4.74
May-August Mean=16.92"
Standard Deviation=5.024
Min=9.11"
Max=28.35"
Quartile 4 >4.75
May-August Mean=18.37"
Standard Deviation=5.968
Min=7.36"
Max=29.99"
Scatter Plot
Correlation Value=0.047294
April rainfall is not strongly correlated with how wet May to August will be. In terms of average, a drier April is not much wetter than the overall average. However, dry Aprils have given way to wet May to August.
http://www7.ncdc.noaa.gov/CDO/CDODivisionalSelect.jsp
1900=Great Galveston HurricaneEd Mahmoud wrote:Wettest April was 1900. I wasn't alive, my grandmother wasn't alive, but we know what happened in 1900.
Driest 1987. I was alive. I don't remember much.
1987=June had heavy rain and flood.
In SPC's early morning update, SPC has removed SE TX from the slight risk for severe weather
However-
http://forums.khou.com/viewtopic.php?f= ... 4710#p4710
However-
http://forums.khou.com/viewtopic.php?f= ... 4710#p4710
-
srainhoutx
- Site Admin
- Posts: 19616
- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
- Contact:
SPC keeps Slight Risk N of Houston in Morning Update...
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0752 AM CDT FRI APR 30 2010
VALID 301300Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE ARKLATEX AND LWR MS
VLY NWD INTO THE MID/UPR MS VLYS...
...SYNOPSIS...
UPR LOW OVER THE WRN DAKOTAS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN SLIGHTLY AS IT MOVES
SLOWLY NE INTO SRN MB THIS PERIOD. ATTENDANT POSITIVE TILT TROUGH
OVER THE CNTRL/SRN RCKYS LIKELY WILL SHOW MINIMAL EWD MOVEMENT AS
SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW OVER SRN CA/NV CONTINUES SE INTO NW MEXICO.
STRENGTHENING OF THE DAKOTAS LOW APPEARS TO BE TIED...IN PART...TO
100+ KT 500 MB JET STREAK NOW OVER THE SRN HI PLNS. THIS FEATURE
SHOULD REDEVELOP NNE TO THE LWR MO VLY BY THIS EVE...AND INTO THE
UPR GRT LKS EARLY SAT. AT THE SFC...THE ABOVE CHANGES WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY AN EWD ACCELERATION AND INTENSIFICATION OF COLD FRONT
NOW OVER THE UPR MS VLY. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD EXTEND FROM NRN MI
THROUGH SRN IL TO CNTRL TX BY 12Z SAT.
...MID/UPR MS VLY...
VERY STRONG LOW LVL FLOW WILL PREVAIL AHEAD OF STRENGTHENING COLD
FRONT OVER THE MID/UPR MS VLY TODAY...WITH 850 MB SSW FLOW AOA 50
KTS. THIS WILL ALLOW INCREASINGLY RICH MOISTURE TO OVERSPREAD
REGION...WITH PW RANGING FROM AROUND 1.25 INCHES IN WI TO ABOVE 1.50
INCHES IN MO. SFC DEW POINTS NEAR 60F SHOULD YIELD SBCAPE OF
1000-1500 J/KG...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES EXPECTED IN MO.
A FEW ELEVATED TSTMS MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING FROM ERN KS
INTO THE UPR MS VLY. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE JOINED AND/OR REPLACED
BY NEW SFC-BASED DEVELOPMENT AS SFC HEATING DESTABILIZES REGION BY
EARLY AFTN. THE STORMS LIKELY WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH
THE REST OF THE DAY AS UPR JET STREAK REDEVELOPS NNE ACROSS REGION.
CLOUDS AND DIFFUSE NATURE OF EXISTING FRONTAL ZONE/OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES COMPLICATE THE PICTURE. BUT ATTM IT APPEARS THAT THE
AXIS OF STRONGEST STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL EXTEND FROM WRN/CNTRL MO
NNE INTO CNTRL/ERN IA AND WRN WI AS UPLIFT FOCUSES ALONG RESIDUAL
OUTFLOW/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES NEAR FRONT.
60-70 KT DEEP SSWLY SHEAR ORIENTED ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE LOW LVL
FOCUSING FEATURES SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR A MIX OF SEMI-DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS AND/OR BROKEN LINES WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS/LEWPS.
GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE MEAN FLOW AND INCREASING MOISTURE...ANY
SUSTAINED STORMS WILL POSE A RISK FOR HIGH WIND...HAIL...AND A FEW
TORNADOES. FAST NNE STORM MOVEMENT SHOULD EXTEND THE SVR THREAT
INTO ERN WI AND WRN/NRN IL BY EVE. A DIMINISHING THREAT MAY PERSIST
INTO EARLY SAT OVER ERN/SRN IL.
...ARKLATEX/SRN OZARKS/LWR MS RVR VLY...
SATELLITE AND GPS DATA SHOW AN AREA OF MORE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
/WITH PW NEAR 1.50 INCHES/ NOW ALONG THE NWRN GULF THAT SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MOVE N INTO E TX...THE LWR MS VLY AND SRN OZARKS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SCTD TSTMS...MOST OF WHICH MAY BE ELEVATED...MAY FORM
OVER NE TX/ERN OK AND AR LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTN
AS LOW CLOUDS LIMIT SFC HEATING. BUT THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SVR WX OVER
THE REGION SHOULD BE LATER THIS AFTN INTO TONIGHT AS INCREASINGLY
MOIST/CONFLUENT FLOW PERSISTS BENEATH DIFLUENT HIGH LVL
JET...SUPPORTING BANDS OF SUSTAINED STORMS.
WHILE HEIGHT CHANGES WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE...COMBINATION OF 45-50 KT
SWLY 500 MB FLOW ATOP 35-40 KT SSWLY LLJ SHOULD SUPPORT EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES. THE STORMS MAY
PERSIST WELL INTO THE NIGHT INTO ERN AR AND THE LWR TN VLY AS COLD
FRONT SAGS SE INTO REGION AND PROVIDES AN ADDITIONAL SOURCE OF LOW
LVL ASCENT AMIDST INCREASING MOISTURE.
..CORFIDI/GARNER.. 04/30/2010
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0752 AM CDT FRI APR 30 2010
VALID 301300Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE ARKLATEX AND LWR MS
VLY NWD INTO THE MID/UPR MS VLYS...
...SYNOPSIS...
UPR LOW OVER THE WRN DAKOTAS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN SLIGHTLY AS IT MOVES
SLOWLY NE INTO SRN MB THIS PERIOD. ATTENDANT POSITIVE TILT TROUGH
OVER THE CNTRL/SRN RCKYS LIKELY WILL SHOW MINIMAL EWD MOVEMENT AS
SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW OVER SRN CA/NV CONTINUES SE INTO NW MEXICO.
STRENGTHENING OF THE DAKOTAS LOW APPEARS TO BE TIED...IN PART...TO
100+ KT 500 MB JET STREAK NOW OVER THE SRN HI PLNS. THIS FEATURE
SHOULD REDEVELOP NNE TO THE LWR MO VLY BY THIS EVE...AND INTO THE
UPR GRT LKS EARLY SAT. AT THE SFC...THE ABOVE CHANGES WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY AN EWD ACCELERATION AND INTENSIFICATION OF COLD FRONT
NOW OVER THE UPR MS VLY. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD EXTEND FROM NRN MI
THROUGH SRN IL TO CNTRL TX BY 12Z SAT.
...MID/UPR MS VLY...
VERY STRONG LOW LVL FLOW WILL PREVAIL AHEAD OF STRENGTHENING COLD
FRONT OVER THE MID/UPR MS VLY TODAY...WITH 850 MB SSW FLOW AOA 50
KTS. THIS WILL ALLOW INCREASINGLY RICH MOISTURE TO OVERSPREAD
REGION...WITH PW RANGING FROM AROUND 1.25 INCHES IN WI TO ABOVE 1.50
INCHES IN MO. SFC DEW POINTS NEAR 60F SHOULD YIELD SBCAPE OF
1000-1500 J/KG...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES EXPECTED IN MO.
A FEW ELEVATED TSTMS MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING FROM ERN KS
INTO THE UPR MS VLY. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE JOINED AND/OR REPLACED
BY NEW SFC-BASED DEVELOPMENT AS SFC HEATING DESTABILIZES REGION BY
EARLY AFTN. THE STORMS LIKELY WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH
THE REST OF THE DAY AS UPR JET STREAK REDEVELOPS NNE ACROSS REGION.
CLOUDS AND DIFFUSE NATURE OF EXISTING FRONTAL ZONE/OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES COMPLICATE THE PICTURE. BUT ATTM IT APPEARS THAT THE
AXIS OF STRONGEST STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL EXTEND FROM WRN/CNTRL MO
NNE INTO CNTRL/ERN IA AND WRN WI AS UPLIFT FOCUSES ALONG RESIDUAL
OUTFLOW/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES NEAR FRONT.
60-70 KT DEEP SSWLY SHEAR ORIENTED ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE LOW LVL
FOCUSING FEATURES SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR A MIX OF SEMI-DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS AND/OR BROKEN LINES WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS/LEWPS.
GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE MEAN FLOW AND INCREASING MOISTURE...ANY
SUSTAINED STORMS WILL POSE A RISK FOR HIGH WIND...HAIL...AND A FEW
TORNADOES. FAST NNE STORM MOVEMENT SHOULD EXTEND THE SVR THREAT
INTO ERN WI AND WRN/NRN IL BY EVE. A DIMINISHING THREAT MAY PERSIST
INTO EARLY SAT OVER ERN/SRN IL.
...ARKLATEX/SRN OZARKS/LWR MS RVR VLY...
SATELLITE AND GPS DATA SHOW AN AREA OF MORE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
/WITH PW NEAR 1.50 INCHES/ NOW ALONG THE NWRN GULF THAT SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MOVE N INTO E TX...THE LWR MS VLY AND SRN OZARKS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SCTD TSTMS...MOST OF WHICH MAY BE ELEVATED...MAY FORM
OVER NE TX/ERN OK AND AR LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTN
AS LOW CLOUDS LIMIT SFC HEATING. BUT THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SVR WX OVER
THE REGION SHOULD BE LATER THIS AFTN INTO TONIGHT AS INCREASINGLY
MOIST/CONFLUENT FLOW PERSISTS BENEATH DIFLUENT HIGH LVL
JET...SUPPORTING BANDS OF SUSTAINED STORMS.
WHILE HEIGHT CHANGES WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE...COMBINATION OF 45-50 KT
SWLY 500 MB FLOW ATOP 35-40 KT SSWLY LLJ SHOULD SUPPORT EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES. THE STORMS MAY
PERSIST WELL INTO THE NIGHT INTO ERN AR AND THE LWR TN VLY AS COLD
FRONT SAGS SE INTO REGION AND PROVIDES AN ADDITIONAL SOURCE OF LOW
LVL ASCENT AMIDST INCREASING MOISTURE.
..CORFIDI/GARNER.. 04/30/2010
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Since I am far from Weather Expert status... sometimes I have a hard time reading these things what with all the abbreviations and such. Care to put this in laymans terms?
-
srainhoutx
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- Posts: 19616
- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
- Contact:
Sorry about your beach day kayci. Streamer showers with a chance of some heavier rain later today.kayci wrote:Since I am far from Weather Expert status... sometimes I have a hard time reading these things what with all the abbreviations and such. Care to put this in laymans terms?
Tomorrow we may see a better chance of some heavier showers/storms as the front approaches. We shall see.Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
srainhoutx wrote:Sorry about your beach day kayci. Streamer showers with a chance of some heavier rain later today.kayci wrote:Since I am far from Weather Expert status... sometimes I have a hard time reading these things what with all the abbreviations and such. Care to put this in laymans terms?
Thanks srain.... I shall put 'plan B' in motion then.
Today's score for SE TX-
Monstrous Cap 1 Severe Weather 0
11am update:
SPC: slight risk stays in northeast Texas; moderate risk now for the mid/upper-Mississippi Valley
Monstrous Cap 1 Severe Weather 0
11am update:
SPC: slight risk stays in northeast Texas; moderate risk now for the mid/upper-Mississippi Valley
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM CDT SATURDAY.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING.
SOUTHEAST WINDS OF BETWEEN 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. THE LONG FETCH AND DURATION OF THESE ONSHORE WINDS
WILL INCREASE SEA HEIGHTS AND SWELL OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TO
AROUND 7 FEET.
THE COMBINATION OF WARM MOIST AIR OVERRIDING COOL SHELF WATERS HAS
RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE SEA FOG OVER GALVESTON BAY
AND THE COASTAL WATERS JUST OFF THE GALVESTON COASTLINE. THIS FOG
IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT WITH VISIBILITIES DROPPING
TO BELOW 1/2 NAUTICAL MILE AT TIMES.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM CDT SATURDAY.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING.
SOUTHEAST WINDS OF BETWEEN 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. THE LONG FETCH AND DURATION OF THESE ONSHORE WINDS
WILL INCREASE SEA HEIGHTS AND SWELL OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TO
AROUND 7 FEET.
THE COMBINATION OF WARM MOIST AIR OVERRIDING COOL SHELF WATERS HAS
RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE SEA FOG OVER GALVESTON BAY
AND THE COASTAL WATERS JUST OFF THE GALVESTON COASTLINE. THIS FOG
IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT WITH VISIBILITIES DROPPING
TO BELOW 1/2 NAUTICAL MILE AT TIMES.
SPC concerned about northeast Texas for severe threat; SE TX stays cloudy, damp and humid..
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0422.html
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0422.html
Wow, high risk now in Arkansas!
Neat 3D relative velocity slice of the tornado near Little Rock @ 9:10pm
The cockroach cap is still there.wxdata wrote:Today's score for SE TX-
Monstrous Cap 1 Severe Weather 0
11am update:
SPC: slight risk stays in northeast Texas; moderate risk now for the mid/upper-Mississippi Valley
I guess the cans of RAID failed.