February: Calm Weather To End The Month

[wxman57]

How is Sunday pm looking? Have a Superbowl Party outside and I can't have rain (has to do with a projector and a 20' screen...)

Currently, all models indicate that the rain is over with by Sunday morning. I'd expect cloudy, breezy and cool weather for Sunday afternoon/evening. Temps probably in the low-mid 50s.

[srainhoutx]

For those interested, here are the WSR (Winter Storm Recon) Flight plots for 02/01/2012...

[srainhoutx]

While it is the 12Z NAM (WRF/NMM), that model suggests a fully phased trough dropping S into the 4 Corners Region...

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Wow, some very impressive temps in Alaska. Crazy!

[texoz]

For the sake of mosquito control, would definitely like at least one more solid freeze all the way to the coast.

[wxman57]

For the sake of mosquito control, would definitely like at least one more solid freeze all the way to the coast.

Alaska and Minnesota are famous for their mosquitoes...

Yeah, I don't think the cold hurts mosquitoes. It just makes them angrier and hungrier when the temperature warms up and it rains.

[srainhoutx]

It appears the early RECON data may have settled guidance down a bit. It does appear that showers/storms will roll across the area Friday night bringing some additional rainfall...

[wxman57]

I just entered our February forecast contest. We had to pick the low and high for the month, the warmest low, coolest high, date of coldest temp and total rain. I put "29" as the coldest temp expected in February, but I was leaning toward going for something like 34 (IAH), as 6 of the last 11 Februarys had no freeze. On the bright side, I put 82 as the warmest temp in February. Not as warm as I'd like to see, but low 80s seems reasonable. Oh, it looks like I took 2 of the 3 possible points for January, getting 2nd place. I missed 1st place because I forecast one day with a high of only 44F. Coldest high was 55F at IAH. Winner picked a coolest high of 53. I needed the temp to reach 48F or lower for the high on any day in January to win.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

I hope we get some low teens for a few days, just to make you uncomfortable you warm-mongerer.... take that bad juju outta here!

[South_Texas_Storms]

When will all the recon data be in the models? 0z runs tonight?

[srainhoutx]

When will all the recon data be in the models? 0z runs tonight?

There was a C-130 flight out of Alaska yesterday afternoon. This is the schedule for today and the newly released tasking as well...

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1230 PM EST MON 30 JANUARY 2012
SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
VALID 31/1100Z JANUARY TO 01/1100Z FEBRUARY 2012
WSPOD NUMBER.....11-061

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71
A. P55/ DROP 9 (45.0N 157.0W)/ 01/0000Z
B. AFXXX 09WSC TRACK55
C. 31/1830Z
D. 16 DROPS AS PUBLISHED ON TRACK
E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 01/0600Z

FLIGHT TWO -- NOAA 49
A. P55/ DROP 9 (45.0N 157.0W)/ 01/1200Z
B. NOAA9 10WSC TRACK55
C. 01/0730Z
D. 16 DROPS AS PUBLISHED ON TRACK
E. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT/ 01/1800Z

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:
A. POSSIBLE TEAL C-130J MISSION FOR
P56/ DROP 9 (44.3N 151.0W)/ 02/0000Z.
B. POSSIBLE NOAA G-IV MISSION FOR
P56/ DROP 9 (44.3N 151.0W)/ 02/1200Z.


WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1145 AM EST TUE 31 JANUARY 2012
SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
VALID 01/1100Z TO 02/1100Z FEBRUARY 2012
WSPOD NUMBER.....11-062

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 72
A. P56/ DROP 9 (44.3N 151.0W)/ 02/0000Z
B. AFXXX 11WSC TRACK56
C. 01/1900Z
D. 16 DROPS AS PUBLISHED ON TRACK
E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 02/0600Z

[srainhoutx]

The Canadian, I think, is happiest for severe on Friday, but the amount of data I can get from the CMC is somewhat limited. From the PSU e-Wall, looks like we'd be in a favorable 500 mb flow regime downstream of the trough, with a sharp dry punch at 700 and 850 mb, and some low level turning of wind.


I don't know where to look up the good stuff, and unlike options for the Euro, NAM and GFS offered from the AccuWx PPV, the pickings from the CMC are slim.

GFS isn't terrible, low level instability is a bit meager, but there is good mid level instability, and despite the meager low level instability, the level of free convection is favorable low. Wind fields looks a little too light to get me really fired up yet.

But over 3 days to hone in on fun-derstorm potetial.

HPC Diagnostics prior to the Euro...

...TROF AMPLIFYING OVER THE WEST INTO PLAINS WED-FRI...

PREFERENCE: 00Z ECMWF/12Z UKMET BLEND W/ 00Z EC MEAN

THE 12Z NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT RATHER CONSIDERABLE
INCONSISTENCIES AND TRENDS ON THE UPPER TROUGH
AMPLIFYING/DEEPENING OVER THE WRN STATES WED AND THURS BEFORE
POSSIBLY EMERGING INTO THE PLAINS/MS VLY FOR FRI. ON THE OTHER
HAND... THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWS TREMENDOUS CONSISTENCY AND HAS SOLID
SUPPORT FROM THE 12Z UKMET THROUGHOUT THE FCST. THE SEMI-PHASED
UPPER TROUGH ARRIVES TO THE WEST COAST AROUND 30 HRS OR LATE TUES
AND ON WED... THE SRN PORTION OF UPPER DYNAMICS DIG TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST TOWARD THE SW/WRN FOUR CORNERS REGION ON WED. THIS ALLOWS
THE SRN STREAM TO BECOME MORE DOMINANT OF THE TWO STREAMS AND
TAKES OVER ON THURS... AS THE SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE DEEPENS AND
POSSIBLY CLOSES OFF A MID-LEVEL LOW CENTER THURS AFTN OVER NRN
AZ/NM. THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO EMERGE ON FRI WITH LOWERING OF UPPER
HEIGHTS INTO THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF
WIDESPREAD PRECIP. THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY APPEARS TO BE FROM 48
HRS OR LATE THURS ONWARD... WITH THE 12Z NAM AND GFS BECOMING MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE TROUGH AXIS AND 500MB LOW CENTER EMERGING
ACROSS ERN CO INTO NE/KS. THIS IS FASTER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF/EC
MEAN... 12Z UKMET AND 09Z SREF MEAN WHICH ARE ALL SLOWER WITH THE
TROUGH AXIS AND DO NOT CARRY THE MID-LEVEL LOW AS FAR NORTH OR
EAST... BASICALLY JUST INTO SERN CO/SWRN KS AND TX/OK PANHANDLES
BY THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD. THIS ALSO IMPACTS THE FLOURISHING
SENSIBLE WEATHER AND DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW. HPC WILL PREFER THE
MORE CONSISTENT 00Z ECMWF WITH SUPPORT FROM THE 12Z UKMET AND THE
00Z EC MEAN TO TAKE SOME OF THE DETAILS OUT OF THE FCST FOR FRI
DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Got rougly .4 inches of rain at the house today... I'll take it.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z Euro suggests a deeper trough/upper low and slower movement. That has been the pattern all season with these upper low storms. That model also suggests the cold front stalling off shore and over running conditions into Sunday morning. Also of note is heavy snow fall appears likely via the Euro for the Central Plains...

[texoz]

For the sake of mosquito control, would definitely like at least one more solid freeze all the way to the coast.

Alaska and Minnesota are famous for their mosquitoes...

Yeah, I don't think the cold hurts mosquitoes. It just makes them angrier and hungrier when the temperature warms up and it rains.

yeah, I'm familiar with skeeters in MN and Alaska. I'm just hoping to delay the inevitable.

[Paul]

skeeters dont fly under 50F....or so I have been told. Someone needs to "google".....

Friday looks to have some potential. With the low sun angle I am having a hard time drying out the last few days.

[srainhoutx]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

First item up this morning will be the fog over much of the region. Dense sea fog has developed and advected inland overnight with visibilities ranging from 1/8 to ½ of a mile at many locations. A check of the offshore buoys shows water temperatures in the 61-64 degree range from Port O Connor to Galveston Bay, while coastal sites are showing dewpoints in the 66-70 range. With dewpoints exceeding cold water temperatures by at least 3-5 degrees, the moist air is being chilled to saturation creating a dense sea fog bank. At times visibilities in the inland bays will drop to near zero and it is likely that many coastal sites will remain locked in the fog all day long. After a slow lifting of the fog across the inland areas today, sea fog will roar back inland after sunset tonight. Will continue this back and forth day/night game of sea fog through Friday night (or until the next cold front moves off the coast). Dense sea fog could affect vessel traffic into and out of local ports for the next 48 hours.

Short wave yesterday has left behind a weak diffuse low level boundary that extends from near Victoria to Richmond to Baytown this morning. Active showers have been developing along the eastern flank of this boundary overnight from roughly eastern Fort Bend County into Louisiana. Aloft a sub-tropical jet stream is overhead clearly noted by the SW to NE mid to high level cloud motions from Mexico off toward the NE. A weak disturbance is embedded in this flow over SW TX this morning and will track eastward today. Lift from this disturbance may help to develop showers and thunderstorms along the boundary mentioned above by late morning/early afternoon. Air mass actually becomes somewhat unstable by early afternoon with CAPE over 1000 J/kg and nearly no capping in the mid levels. Would not be surprised to see a few thunderstorms develop under this pattern. Best rain chances would appear to be along the US 59 corridor toward the coast where the old boundary is sitting this morning.

Thursday will feature a drier and warm day as weak ridging aloft crosses the region ahead of the next potent storm system due in late Friday.

Friday-Saturday:
Cold front and upper level storm system will move into the region with active weather. Strong cold front will enter NW TX Thursday and move across the state on Friday and off the coast around daybreak-midday Saturday. Favorable moisture levels (PWS nearing 1.5 inches), decent jet dynamics aloft, and frontal lift all point to a good chance of showers and thunderstorms with the boundary from Friday afternoon-midday Saturday. Feel it is best to push rain chances to at least 60% for this period, but it is likely this will go even higher as the time draws closer. Cold air advection behind the front will drive temperatures back toward somewhat seasonable values on Saturday afternoon ending this warm spell (January ended the month nearly 3-5 degrees above the 30-yr average).

Bigger forecast dilemma comes Saturday night through early next week as there is little agreement in the models as to where/if a coastal low forms on the frontal boundary and what impacts that will have on the area. ECMWF model quickly develops a coastal low off the southern TX coast Sunday in response to a digging short wave out west. The result is cold and cloudy conditions on Sunday with rainfall developing from SW to NE during the afternoon into the evening hours with widespread rains then possible Sunday night-Monday. The GFS model also develops this feature, but it is much further offshore with mainly cloudy and cool conditions on Sunday and most/if not all rainfall remaining off the coast. GFS cross sections show a long duration of mid/high level moisture influx post frontal passage into early next week suggesting an active sub-tropical flow aloft. Really have no reason to favor either model at the moment, but the wetter pattern of late would tend to favor the ECMWF model. For now will just go with rain chances ending behind the front on Saturday afternoon, but maintain clouds into Monday of next week with temperatures only in the 50’s post front into early next week. Should the ECMWF model start to look more correct or the GFS trend in that direction, then temperatures will need to be lowered Sun-Mon along with much better rain chances.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z GFS has trended to what the Euro had suggested regarding showers/storms developing along Coastal Texas as a wave of low pressure develops along the frontal boundary on Sunday. It does appear a line of storms will approach the area early Saturday morning as the front heads in our direction as well...

[djmike]

Any QPFs maps for this Friday/Saturday's storms? Curious to see what the models are saying... Thanks!

[srainhoutx]

Any QPFs maps for this Friday/Saturday's storms? Curious to see what the models are saying... Thanks!

Issued this morning. I'd wait and see what the updated QPF forecast is though...