February: Calm Weather To End The Month

[srainhoutx]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1021 AM CST SUN FEB 12 2012

.UPDATE...
A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO CURRENT FORECAST TO ADJUST POPS TO BE THE
HIGHEST OVER THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY NEAR OUR SW COUNTIES AND
LESS ACROSS OUR NW COUNTIES FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON PER CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS. HRRR/WRF/NAM COLUMN MAX REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS MOST
RESEMBLE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...THOUGH LOW LEVELS ARE STILL VERY
DRY BELOW 7-10 KFT PER MORNING FWD SOUNDING AND MODEL SOUNDINGS
THROUGH 21Z. TOP-DOWN SATURATION PROCESS WILL BE GRADUAL AND SLOW
WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWING RISING THROUGH THE 30S THIS AFTERNOON.
WET-BULB EFFECT AND INCREASING AND LOWER CLOUD DECK SHOULD SLOW
DOWN WARMING DRAMATICALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF NORTH TEXAS
BY THIS AFTERNOON.

WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOVE FREEZING...BUT THE REST OF
THE SOUNDING PROFILE ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER STRADDLING THE 0
DEGREE ISOTHERM THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE ADJUSTED FORECAST FOR LOWER
CHANCES OF A VERY LIGHT MIXTURE OF EITHER A COLD RAIN...SLEET...AND
POSSIBLY A FEW SNOW FLAKES FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY IMPACTS THIS AFTERNOON
OR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AT THIS TIME...BUT
THERE MAY NEED TO BE SOME SPATIAL ADJUSTMENTS WITH THE LATE
AFTERNOON PACKAGE DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS EVOLVE. MODELS STILL
ADVERTISING ALL KINDS OF PRECIP TYPES/SCENARIOS...WITH WAA PICKING
UP IN THE LOW LEVELS JUST BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING PER
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AHEAD OF OUR APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH.

FOR NOW IT STILL APPEARS THE 8 PM-4 AM TIME FRAME TONIGHT WILL BE
THE MAIN WINDOW FOR WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL. THOUGH WE`VE BEEN
VERY COLD THE PAST 48 HRS...THE GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE STILL WELL
ABOVE FREEZING AND MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE ELEVATED SURFACES SUCH AS
BRIDGES/OVERPASSES. SREF MODEL IS SHOWING ALL KINDS OF PLUME
SCENARIOS RANGING FROM TRACE AMOUNTS...TO BETWEEN AN INCH OR TWO
INCHES ACROSS THE CURRENT ADVISORY AREA. THOUGH THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF WINDOW FOR FREEZING RAIN ACROSS OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WHEN THE WARM NOSE ARRIVES ABOVE THE SURFACE...
YET CONFIDENCE REMAINS TO0 LOW ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND ACTUAL
EVOLUTION OVERNIGHT TO ADD FREEZING RAIN BRIEFLY OVERNIGHT.

IT IS POSSIBLE THE DFW METRO AND EVEN POSSIBLY THE WACO METRO
AREA MAY NEED TO BE INCLUDED IN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
TONIGHT DEPENDING ON WHAT 12Z MODEL RUNS SHOW.

UPDATE ON THE WAY.

[srainhoutx]

And for the Houston Area...severe potential may be increasing for tomorrow...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1036 AM CST SUN FEB 12 2012

.UPDATE...
MORNING FORECAST UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CLOUD COVER SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER SE TX TODAY AND KEEP
MAX TEMPS CONFINED TO THE 40S FOR MOST AREAS. RADAR IS PICKING UP
A FEW RETURNS FOR THE SW AND W AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT A
VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY EVAPORATE ANY LIGHT PRECIP.
MAIN SHORTWAVE IN THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO
TX TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. FORECAST HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
SITUATION. AGAIN WHILE INSTABILITY WILL BE SORELY LACKING...LOW
LEVEL WIND PROFILES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF A
DAMAGING WIND AND TORNADO THREAT. BUFR NAM SOUNDINGS FROM THE 12Z
RUN THIS MORNING ARE SHOWING 0-3KM SRH IN THE 500-900 M2/S2
RANGE. NAM STILL BRINGS WARM FRONT AND WEAK WAVE LIKE LOW ALONG
THE COASTAL PLAIN DURING THE MORNING HOURS. AREA MAY BE LUCKY TO
GET 500 J/KG OF CAPE BUT AS HAS BEEN THE CASE RECENTLY...STORMS
SEEM NOT TO TAKE MUCH TO ROTATE IN THESE SET UPS. WILL CONTINUE
TO EVALUATE THE SEVERE THREAT AS NEW GUIDANCE COMES IN.

[srainhoutx]

Light sleet falling in New Braunfels. A Canyon Lake webcam suggests the same.

[srainhoutx]

Reports of light accumulating sleet NW of Dripping Springs/San Marcos

[Portastorm]

Light sleet now falling at my house in southwest Austin.

[srainhoutx]

Confirmed multiple vehicle accidents on I-10 between Kerrville and Kimble County line

[srainhoutx]

Code: Select all

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1246 PM CST SUN FEB 12 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1238 PM     SNOW             BUDA                    30.09N  97.84W
02/12/2012  E0.0 INCH        HAYS               TX   911 CALL CENTER

            LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES ALONG TRAVIS HAYS CO LINE

[Belmer]

I think wxman57 got his low correct. If I remember correctly, he forecasted 29? Well Houston came in at 28 this morning.

As for here in San Marcos, very light flurries early this morning. Now, 41 degrees and cloudy. Would have liked to see more precip, but oh well. Looks like the stuff to the west will miss us as it moves NE.

[Katdaddy]

Getting a report of sleet in Rosharon via a Facebook.

[Katdaddy]

Also heard a report of snow flurries in Alvin via FB? I have not looked at the temp profile to validate. Anyone else hearing any reports?

[tireman4]

I thought it was too warm Katdaddy.....

[tireman4]

You are right Ed. In Wake Forest, North Carolina, in February 1992, I have seen it snow, heavily for two hours in 36 degree weather.

[vci_guy2003]

Light sleet and graupel falling here on 1960/ champion forest wow

[Katdaddy]

A few Very light sleet pellets here in W League City.

[Katdaddy]

It came and went with a blink of an eye. You never forget the soft ping from falling sleet. Ok now I am ready for Spring. Light rains moving up the middle TX Coast.

[brendan_w_2002]

Persistant light to mod sleet up here near Hooks for the past 5 minutes.

[jasons2k]

I've seen some light sleet pellets as warm as 50 degrees. It wasn't too long ago - one morning last winter or maybe the year before. I posted about it on here b/c the soundings didn't support sleet, but it was sleeting. The pinging on the windshield is something you can't miss. It was one of those situations where it was warm at the surface but extremely dry all the way up to a mid-high level cloud deck with some virga....and a few sleet pellets that made it down. The evaporative cooling allowed just enough droplets to supercool, freeze, and not evaporate on the way down. Probably not too unlike the first band or two moving across here today.

[srainhoutx]

Persistant light to mod sleet up here near Hooks for the past 5 minutes.

We had the same here in NW Harris County a few minutes ago. There was some graupel mixed in as well.

[TexasBreeze]

Sleeting by Hooks Airpt where I'm at.

[Katdaddy]

Looks like another light sleet shower is approaching NW Galveston County from the Alvin area