February: Calm Weather To End The Month

[Belmer]

I am not at a computer where I can view models right now. So may I ask what the "major" differences are between the two!?

The more things change... Or not. Euro operational is way, way flatter with the SW US trough. But I'll just post optimistic images.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/Mag ... ort_ht.gif
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/Mag ... ort_ht.gif

I'm on a strict computer, images are being blocked. You posted images earlier and a small [x] appears on the top right. I'll have to look in a few hours when I get back on my laptop! Y'all are making me curious.. haha!

[Ptarmigan]

A Menudo day, Ed??

Menudo is name of a Puerto Rican boy band. Also, it is name of a Mexican soup. It is said to be a good hangover cure.

[Portastorm]

Despite some experts saying winter is over ... Mother Nature is saying "not so fast."

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
438 AM CST SAT FEB 11 2012

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-111245-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LLANO...BURNET...GEORGETOWN...DEL RIO...
ROCKSPRINGS...LEAKEY...KERRVILLE...BANDERA...FREDERICKSBURG...
BOERNE...BLANCO...SAN MARCOS...AUSTIN...BASTROP...GIDDINGS...
BRACKETTVILLE...UVALDE...HONDO...SAN ANTONIO...NEW BRAUNFELS...
SEGUIN...LOCKHART...LA GRANGE...EAGLE PASS...CRYSTAL CITY...
PEARSALL...PLEASANTON...FLORESVILLE...KARNES CITY...GONZALES...
CUERO...HALLETTSVILLE...CARRIZO SPRINGS
438 AM CST SAT FEB 11 2012

...WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING...

AS A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW EJECTS NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...LIGHT RAIN WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT
OVER THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS AS GULF
MOISTURE OVERRUNS A MODIFIED POLAR AIRMASS IN PLACE. AS READINGS
CONTINUE DROPPING TOWARDS SUNRISE...SOME OF THE RAIN WILL BECOME
MIXED WITH SLEET. AFTER SUNRISE...THE OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION
WILL SPREAD EASTWARD AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
ATMOSPHERIC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW RELATIVELY DRY AIR AT THE
SURFACE ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AT THE TIME OF SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
MORNING. THUS...MUCH OF THE GULF MOISTURE THAT OVERRUNS SUNDAY
MORNING IS EXPECTED TO EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND...AND
ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE OR SNOW ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. AS
OVERRUNNING CONTINUES DURING THE DAY...PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME
ALL RAIN BY AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING.

MODEL TIMING AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNT UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN. RESIDENTS
SHOULD STAY TUNED TO LATER FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS ON THIS POTENTIAL
WINTRY MIX EVENT SUNDAY MORNING.

[srainhoutx]

A very interesting and active pattern is ahead for the time period from Sunday until next weekend. As we have seen, the models just do not handle things too well and that has been the case since late December. As many will recall, the forecast for our 'Winter' was dry and hot. We have really seen neither. Our drought situation continues to improve and temps have not been very much above average at all. In fact we are seeing near normal temps with above average rainfall. While some may always 'hope' that winter will bring wintry mischief and Siberian cold to Texas, which is just not and never has been in the cards for a typical La Nina Winter. What is very atypical is our rainfall. The active Pacific flow and numerous cut off upper lows have brought benefits in the drought department. We have seen severe weather with tornadoes and flooding rains and that pattern does not appear to be ending anytime too soon, IMO. As the MJO shifts into phase 8-1-2 as we are now witnessing, the sub tropical jet and tropical forcing becomes more of a player in the pattern ahead. This mornings WV imagery depicts a Kona Low tapping deep tropical moisture on our side of the Date Line and the Pacific flow has switched to one that is on a NE trajectory toward SE Alaska away from the Pacific NW as we have seen all season thus far. A robust Polar Vortex continues to rotate near the Hudson Bay Region in Canada with embedded short wave energy spinning around that feature sending attending cold fronts S and E. What is now being suggested is a flip in the blocking regime across the N Atlantic. High pressure is sliding W from Europe suggesting a Greenland Block or -NAO is developing. Many have wondered why there has been no winter in North America this year. The entire pattern regime may well be flipping to one that brings a very active storm pattern across all of North America with bouts of cold and snow to our N in the Plains and very stormy and active severe weather to the S in the warm sector. One thing I've noticed in years of watching weather patterns is that when the ball starts rolling and changes begin to take place, hold on. We could be in for a wild ride. So ending my long and boring diatribe, I'll leave you with the words that the infamous JB always states. 'Enjoy the weather. Because it's the only weather we've got'.

[srainhoutx]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1004 AM CST SAT FEB 11 2012

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-111900-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LLANO...BURNET...GEORGETOWN...DEL RIO...
ROCKSPRINGS...LEAKEY...KERRVILLE...BANDERA...FREDERICKSBURG...
BOERNE...BLANCO...SAN MARCOS...AUSTIN...BASTROP...GIDDINGS...
BRACKETTVILLE...UVALDE...HONDO...SAN ANTONIO...NEW BRAUNFELS...
SEGUIN...LOCKHART...LA GRANGE...EAGLE PASS...CRYSTAL CITY...
PEARSALL...PLEASANTON...FLORESVILLE...KARNES CITY...GONZALES...
CUERO...HALLETTSVILLE...CARRIZO SPRINGS
1004 AM CST SAT FEB 11 2012

...WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING...

AS A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW EJECTS NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION
LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...LIGHT RAIN WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT OVER THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS AS
GULF MOISTURE OVERRUNS A DRY COLD AIRMASS. AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
DROPPING TOWARDS SUNRISE...SOME OF THE RAIN WILL BECOME MIXED WITH
SLEET. AFTER SUNRISE...THE OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD
EASTWARD AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. ATMOSPHERIC
FORECAST PROFILES SHOW RELATIVELY DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE ACROSS
THE HILL COUNTRY AND OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
AT THE TIME OF SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING.
THEREFORE...MUCH OF THE GULF MOISTURE THAT OVERRUNS SUNDAY
MORNING IS EXPECTED TO EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND...AND
NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE OR SNOW ARE EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. AS OVERRUNNING CONTINUES DURING THE DAY...PRECIPITATION WILL
BECOME ALL RAIN BY AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING.

MODEL TIMING AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNT UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN. RESIDENTS
SHOULD STAY TUNED TO LATER FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS ON THIS POTENTIAL
WINTRY MIX EVENT SUNDAY MORNING.

[srainhoutx]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1042 AM CST SAT FEB 11 2012

.DISCUSSION...
MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO HIGHS AND SKY COVER TODAY. QUICK LOOK AT
12Z MODEL RUNS INDICATE VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION BEGINNING ACROSS
THE WESTERN CWA TOWARD SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING WITH A MIX OF
LIGHT RAIN/SLEET/SNOW SPREADING NEWD ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND
ADJACENT SECTIONS OF S CENTRAL TX BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z...BECOMING
ALL LIQUID OR RAIN BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. DUE TO THE DRY LOW
LEVELS...IT APPEARS THE WINTER MIX WILL BE VERY LIGHT DUE TO
EVAPORATION...HOWEVER IF PRECIPITATION DOES FALL...THE EVAPORATIVE
COOLING EFFECTS WILL LIKELY ENSURE INITIAL PRECIPITATION IS FROZEN
OR A MIX. BECAUSE OF FORECAST FREEZING MIN TEMPERATURES AT THE
SURFACE SUNDAY MORNING...AM STRONGLY CONSIDERING A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR SUNDAY MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND
ADJACENT COUNTIES AS SOME BRIDGE AND OVERPASSES COULD HAVE SOME
BRIEF LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS THAT WILL IMPACT DRIVING.

[Belmer]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1042 AM CST SAT FEB 11 2012

.DISCUSSION...
MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO HIGHS AND SKY COVER TODAY. QUICK LOOK AT
12Z MODEL RUNS INDICATE VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION BEGINNING ACROSS
THE WESTERN CWA TOWARD SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING WITH A MIX OF
LIGHT RAIN/SLEET/SNOW SPREADING NEWD ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND
ADJACENT SECTIONS OF S CENTRAL TX BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z...BECOMING
ALL LIQUID OR RAIN BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. DUE TO THE DRY LOW
LEVELS...IT APPEARS THE WINTER MIX WILL BE VERY LIGHT DUE TO
EVAPORATION...HOWEVER IF PRECIPITATION DOES FALL...THE EVAPORATIVE
COOLING EFFECTS WILL LIKELY ENSURE INITIAL PRECIPITATION IS FROZEN
OR A MIX. BECAUSE OF FORECAST FREEZING MIN TEMPERATURES AT THE
SURFACE SUNDAY MORNING...AM STRONGLY CONSIDERING A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR SUNDAY MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND
ADJACENT COUNTIES AS SOME BRIDGE AND OVERPASSES COULD HAVE SOME
BRIEF LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS THAT WILL IMPACT DRIVING.

Even though we might not see accumulation here in San Marcos, I would still be happy to see something fall from the sky besides rain. So if this still looks good at about 11:00 tonight, I'm getting up around 4:00-5:00 tomorrow morning and watch what happens. My winter would be made just to see one snowflake.

[srainhoutx]

Even Corpus is mentioning a chance of wintry mischief near Laredo tomorrow morning...

ONE NOTE...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING
THE POSSIBILITY OF PRECIP BEGINNING SUNDAY MORNING IN A WINTRY MIX
JUST NORTHWEST OF THE CWA...ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU. THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS LA SALLE AND NORTHWEST WEBB COUNTIES
INDICATE THE PRECIP MELTING THROUGH A LAYER THAT REMAINS ABOVE
FREEZING ALL THE WAY TO THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...IF THERE IS
INITIALLY SOME EVAPORATIVE COOLING BETWEEN 900-800MB THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE SOUNDING TO REMAIN NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING
THROUGH THIS LAYER BETWEEN 12Z-18Z...RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL
FOR A VERY BRIEF MIXTURE OF RAIN/SLEET ACROSS PORTIONS OF LA SALLE
AND NORTHWEST WEBB COUNTY SUNDAY MORNING.

[srainhoutx]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
314 PM CST SAT FEB 11 2012

...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAD BEEN ISSUED FOR THE HILL COUNTRY
AND ADJACENT AREAS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FROM 6 AM TO NOON SUNDAY...

.COLD DRY AIR CONTINUED TO PUSH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON...AND WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
MEANWHILE AN APPROACHING UPPER AIR TROUGH WILL BRING PACIFIC
MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO INTO SOUTH TEXAS...RESULTING IN INCREASING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WITH
THE COLD AIR IN PLACE...THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL THROUGH THE
COLD DRY AIRMASS. THERE IS GOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO
FORM INTO A MIXTURE OF LIGHT RAIN...SLEET AND EVEN LIGHT SNOW.
THIS WINTRY MIX COULD RESULT IN LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE MAINLY
ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY.
SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE COUNTIES ADJACENT TO THE HILL
COUNTRY COULD SEE SOME SPOTTY LIGHT ICING ON ELEVATED ROADS AS
WELL. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING BY THE
AFTERNOON WITH WINTRY MIX CHANGING TO RAIN.


TXZ171>173-183>192-202>206-120500-
/O.NEW.KEWX.WW.Y.0001.120212T1200Z-120212T1800Z/
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-KINNEY-UVALDE-MEDINA-BEXAR-
COMAL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LLANO...BURNET...GEORGETOWN...DEL RIO...
ROCKSPRINGS...LEAKEY...KERRVILLE...BANDERA...FREDERICKSBURG...
BOERNE...BLANCO...SAN MARCOS...AUSTIN...BRACKETTVILLE...UVALDE...
HONDO...SAN ANTONIO...NEW BRAUNFELS
314 PM CST SAT FEB 11 2012

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO NOON CST
SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION WHICH IS
IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO NOON CST SUNDAY.

* TIMING...6 AM TO NOON.

* MAIN IMPACT...MOTORISTS ENCOUNTERING SLIPPY ICE ON BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES.

* OTHER IMPACTS...WIND CHILLS 20 TO 25 DEGREES.

Disco snippet...

STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING ACROSS MUCH OF THE NRN/ERN
CWA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPERATURES NOT ABLE TO BREAK OUT OF
THE 40S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND NRN COUNTIES. CIRRUS CLOUDS
WERE STREAMING RAPIDLY INTO AND ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA IN ADVANCE
OF THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH LIFTING NEWD OUT OF THE BAJA AREA. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE THE CATALYST FOR POSSIBLE WINTRY MIX OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING SUNDAY MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. EXACT TIMING NOT YET CERTAIN...BUT IT APPEARS
PRECIPITATION WILL INITIALLY EVAPORATE BEFORE EVAPORATIVE COOLING
AND MOISTENING OF THE LOWER LAYERS WILL RESULT IN A MIXTURE OF
LIGHT RAIN/SLEET/LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY MORNING WITH LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATIONS. HOWEVER EVEN LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ON BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES WILL MAKE THEM VERY SLICK. THEREFORE WILL GO WITH
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6AM TO NOON SUNDAY FOR ALL OF HILL
COUNTRY AND SOME ADJACENT COUNTIES. HAVE ADDED AN EXTRA TIER OF
COUNTIES TO THE ADVISORY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF HILL COUNTRY DUE
TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THOSE COUNTIES. DEPENDING ON TIMING...THE
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS IF
PRECIPITATION IS DELAYED AND TEMPERATURES ARE SLOW TO WARM MUCH
ABOVE FREEZING BY NOON TIME. ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS WILL BE WORDED
AS LIGHT MAINLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE
MAX TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY BY 4-8 DEGREES AND THAT MAY NOT BE
ENOUGH.

[srainhoutx]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
242 PM CST SAT FEB 11 2012

.DISCUSSION...
...A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN...SLEET...AND POSSIBLY SNOW EXPECTED
NORTHWEST OF A COMANCHE...CLEBURNE...DALLAS...EMORY LINE LATE
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING...

WATCHING TWO SYSTEMS ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE WELL TO OUR WEST
THIS AFTERNOON OVER CA/NV AND BAJA MEXICO. THE ARCTIC AIRMASS
CURRENTLY PLACE WILL NOT MODIFY MUCH THROUGH SUNDAY...AS THE CA/NV
DISTURBANCE ABSORBS THE MEXICO DISTURBANCE BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE
DISTURBANCE THEN WILL PROCEED TO INDUCE TOP-DOWN SATURATION AND
WET-BULB COOLING ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND THE HILL COUNTRY BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING
INTO THE 30S AND POSSIBLY LOWER 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CWA.
ENOUGH SATURATION MAY LEND TO SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN...SLEET OR SNOW
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS LATE IN THE DAY.

ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND LIFT WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. MODELS DIFFER ON SOUNDING PROFILES WITH
THE NAM12 COLDER THAN THE GFS40 AND THE ECMWF KIND OF IN BETWEEN
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA. THAT BEING SAID...PARTIAL
THICKNESS METHODS DIFFER MORE THAN THE SOUNDINGS. TO SAY THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY ON EVOLUTION...TYPES OF PRECIPITATION AND AMOUNTS IS
AN UNDERSTATEMENT THIS AFTERNOON. WE WILL TAKE THE MIDDLE OF THE
ROAD APPROACH AT THIS TIME AND TAKE THE WINTRY MIX LINE DOWN TO A
COMANCHE...DALLAS...EMORY LINE. THIS LINE MAY BE ADJUSTED BACK
NORTH OR SOUTH DEPENDING ON FUTURE MODEL RUNS AND ATMOSPHERIC
CHANGES WITH THE THERMAL PROFILE AND LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES.

[srainhoutx]

Continuing the 'theme' of the active week ahead, Winter Storm Recon has been tasked for a C-130 out of Alaska on tomorrow afternoon. My hunch is this will not be the last mission and there may well be G-IV missions tasked out of HI as well before all is said and done. These missions will assist all guidance in the upcoming pattern, so expect continued changes as that additional data is ingested. While we know that guidance cannot be trusted more than 3-4 days out, I do suspect as the MJO nears phase 1 later in the upcoming week, there will be subtle differences in just how the late week storm complex plays out. While some discount the DGEX, it can offer hints of what the pattern may offer and the 18Z run paints an interesting picture. We will see...


WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1230 AM EST SAT 11 FEBRUARY 2012
SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
VALID 12/1100Z TO 13/1100Z FEBRUARY 2012
WSPOD NUMBER.....11-073

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 72--
A. P56/ DROP 9 44.3N 151.0W/ 13/0000Z
B. AFXXX 17WSC TRACK56
C. 12/1930Z
D. 16 DROPS AS PUBLISHED ON TRACK
E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 13/0600Z.

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

[srainhoutx]

The 00Z WRF/NMM suggests temps borderline at best for areas N of I-20 RE: wintry mischief. What that model does suggest is a very damp Monday...

[srainhoutx]

Our Pro Met hriverajr, is reporting heavy sleet in Del Rio this past hour...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N5STksxSGHQ

[srainhoutx]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
500 AM CST SUN FEB 12 2012

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE HILL COUNTRY AND
ADJACENT AREAS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO
6 PM CST THIS EVENING...

.COLD DRY AIR CONTINUED TO PUSH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY THIS
MORNING. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS BRINGING PACIFIC
MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO INTO SOUTH TEXAS...RESULTING IN
INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY. WITH
THE COLD AIR IN PLACE...THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL THROUGH THE
COLD DRY AIRMASS. THERE IS GOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO
FORM INTO A MIXTURE OF LIGHT RAIN...LIGHT SLEET AND LIGHT SNOW.
THIS WINTRY MIX COULD RESULT IN ONE TO TWO INCHES OF SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WITH ISOLATED SPOTS UP TO THREE MAINLY ACROSS THE
EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL COUNTRY AREAS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING BY THE AFTERNOON
WITH THE WINTRY MIX CHANGING TO ALL RAIN.

TXZ171>173-183>192-202>206-121900-
/O.EXT.KEWX.WW.Y.0001.120212T1200Z-120213T0000Z/
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-KINNEY-UVALDE-MEDINA-BEXAR-
COMAL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LLANO...BURNET...GEORGETOWN...DEL RIO...
ROCKSPRINGS...LEAKEY...KERRVILLE...BANDERA...FREDERICKSBURG...
BOERNE...BLANCO...SAN MARCOS...AUSTIN...BRACKETTVILLE...UVALDE...
HONDO...SAN ANTONIO...NEW BRAUNFELS
500 AM CST SUN FEB 12 2012

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS
EVENING...

* TIMING...6 AM TO 6 PM.

* MAIN IMPACT...MOTORISTS ENCOUNTERING ONE TO TWO INCHES OF SNOW
ON LOCAL ROADS...BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES

* OTHER IMPACTS...WIND CHILLS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO 20S.

[srainhoutx]

Code: Select all

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
714 AM CST SUN FEB 12 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0705 AM     SLEET            2 NW DEL RIO            29.40N 100.92W
02/12/2012  E0.2 INCH        VAL VERDE          TX   CO-OP OBSERVER

            GETTING A MIX OF SLEET AND ICE PELLETS ACCUMULATING ON
            GRASSY SURFACES.

Code: Select all

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
704 AM CST SUN FEB 12 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0652 AM     SLEET            UVALDE                  29.22N  99.78W
02/12/2012  E0.0 INCH        UVALDE             TX   BROADCAST MEDIA

            VIEWER REPORTED SLEET IN UVALDE RELAYED BY BROADCAST
            MEDIA.

Code: Select all

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
650 AM CST SUN FEB 12 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 AM     SLEET            2 WSW DEL RIO           29.37N 100.92W
02/12/2012  E0.0 INCH        VAL VERDE          TX   NWS EMPLOYEE

            LIGHT SLEET ACCUMULATIONS CREATING SOME SLICK SPOTS ON
            CONCRETE.

[Portastorm]

EWX just bumped up the WWA to a Winter Storm Warning for the Del Rio area and western Hill Country. This event is clearly not behaving as some suggested yesterday per the modeling.

[jasons2k]

* TIMING...6 AM TO 6 PM.
* MAIN IMPACT...MOTORISTS ENCOUNTERING ONE TO TWO INCHES OF SNOW
ON LOCAL ROADS...BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES

A Winter Storm Warning for that? Really? That's the kind of fodder than makes northerners laugh at us in amusement.

[srainhoutx]

* TIMING...6 AM TO 6 PM.
* MAIN IMPACT...MOTORISTS ENCOUNTERING ONE TO TWO INCHES OF SNOW
ON LOCAL ROADS...BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES

A Winter Storm Warning for that? Really? That's the kind of fodder than makes northerners laugh at us in amusement.

There is always a Debbie Downer in the bunch... Oh course they haven't had any real snow to speak of this year, so it makes these little events all the sweeter...

[hriverajr]

* TIMING...6 AM TO 6 PM.
* MAIN IMPACT...MOTORISTS ENCOUNTERING ONE TO TWO INCHES OF SNOW
ON LOCAL ROADS...BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES

A Winter Storm Warning for that? Really? That's the kind of fodder than makes northerners laugh at us in amusement.

We kind of laugh when you northerners have heat advisories for 95 degree weather in the summer

[Portastorm]

* TIMING...6 AM TO 6 PM.
* MAIN IMPACT...MOTORISTS ENCOUNTERING ONE TO TWO INCHES OF SNOW
ON LOCAL ROADS...BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES

A Winter Storm Warning for that? Really? That's the kind of fodder than makes northerners laugh at us in amusement.

C'mon Jason, you've been here long enough to know that it doesn't take much to seriously impact travel. And one to two inches in the Hill Country and/or Del Rio will definitely SERIOUSLY impact travel.