February: Calm Weather To End The Month

[Belmer]

Can anyone verify this talk I hear of more storms and/or rain moving through the coastal counties over night tonight? Was just wondering if they were gonna be severe or just mostly rain...Thank you.

No severe! Just rain. Some spots may see some localized heavy rain, and possibly some thunder. But no severe threat with this disturbance riding on through.

[rnmm]

Can anyone verify this talk I hear of more storms and/or rain moving through the coastal counties over night tonight? Was just wondering if they were gonna be severe or just mostly rain...Thank you.

No severe! Just rain. Some spots may see some localized heavy rain, and possibly some thunder. But no severe threat with this disturbance riding on through.

Thank you. I didn't feel like having to secure patio and pool furniture etc.

[ticka1]

Email this evening from Jeff Lindner:

Area radar starting to fill in again this evening in response to incoming sun-tropical jet streak and disturbance over MX. CRP radar shows numerous thunderstorms with very heavy rainfall moving ENE toward the coastal bend this evening as ascent increases over cool surface dome.



Rainfall rates are already reaching 1-2 inches in the stronger storms, but feel the activity overnight-Sunday will focus toward the areas south of I-10 where rainfall amounts today have been lower than up north. Still some run-off problems may develop especially in any areas of training. Overall another 1-2 inches will be possible south of I-10 overnight-Sunday midday with some isolated higher totals.



Severe threat appears marginal as storms are elevated above the surface, but some hail will be possible in the stronger storms and warnings have been issued this evening for hail.



Hydro:



Flood Warnings are in effect for the following watersheds:



Luce Bayou at Huffman: affecting Liberty and Harris Counties

Trinity River at Riverside: affecting Walker County

Middle Yegua Creek: affecting Burleson and Lee Counties

Peach Creek at Splendora: affecting Montgomery County



Note: Flood gate operations are now in progress at Lake Livingston with 33,900 cfs being released into the lower Trinity River

[niner21]

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DM_state.htm?TX,S

Not sure how I post this but at least the state is looking a heck of a lot better in terms of drought. Could use another round of storms and rain. How about in about 9 days or so LOL!!

[Belmer]

If we were about 15-18 degrees colder, the coast would be picking up on some very heavy snowfall and down toward south TX. Reminds me of the setup from a little bit this time last year, except it was more up north and obviously about 15 degrees colder.

[srainhoutx]

A rather impressive short wave is to our W in Old Mexico and showers/elevated storms blanket areas along and S of I-10 this morning. The upper air disturbance will move across the area late this afternoon/over night before we 'dry out' briefly. Changes continue to lurk in the medium range as a complex pattern develops. As mentioned a couple of days ago, the guidance is struggling and flip flopping daily with the synoptic setup and that trend continued over night via guidance. A strong W Coast ridge develops with a deep trough from the Intermountain W on E. A very potent Polar Vortex will drop S near The Hudson Bay region or very near the Great Lakes. At the same time a robust U/L will under cut the W Coast ridge and linger near the Baja area. What remains to be seen is if some phasing with the northern stream energy and that SW U/L develops later in the week. The GFS is hinting the arrival of a stout cold front near Thursday as moisture in the SW flow aloft head across Texas. The MJO appears to be heading into phase 8 during the coming week and suggests an active Sub Tropical Jet will be in place. The Euro suggests that Baja U/L will linger. We'll need to monitor things during the coming week as there are suggestions that a potent southern Winter Storm may be brewing and with cold shallow air in place at the surface, wintry mischief is not out of the question for some folks in Texas reminding us that winter is not over just yet. We will see...

[JackCruz]

Too bad that southern storm wouldn't hit Houston.....ah boi

[Ptarmigan]

South Texas got most of the rain last night. They got the good stuff.

[South_Texas_Storms]

Snook, TX, stolen from Facebook, and I think taken by a member of this very KHOU forum...

Yep Ed I took that picture. Only about 15 minutes away from my place in College Station. Looks maybe EF-0 or EF-1 ish imo.

[Belmer]

Very interesting formation in the Gulf by the Yucatan Peninsula. I noticed it yesterday morning, but certainly didn't really pay attention to it because I figured it would die off. However, the National Hurricane Center in Miami, FL is monitoring it and has about a 30% chance for development.
To read the full article, click the link below:

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-n ... ve-i/61203


For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A non-tropical low pressure system interacting with an upper-level trough is producing widespread cloudiness, showers, and scattered thunderstorms across much of western and central Cuba, the lower Florida Keys, and adjacent waters of the northwestern Caribbean Sea, southeastern Gulf of Mexico, and the Florida straits. The low is centered just west of the western tip of Cuba, and a surface circulation center is gradually becoming better defined. Shower activity has been slowly increasing and has become better organized today, and if this development trend continues, then a subtropical depression or a subtropical storm could form during the next day or so before the disturbance merges with a cold front. This system has a medium chance, 30 percent, of becoming a subtropical cyclone during the next 48 hours as it moves slowly north-northeastward tonight and Monday morning, before turning northeastward at 10 to 15 mph toward south Florida and the Florida Keys by Monday afternoon and evening. Regardless of development, This system will likely bring locally heavy rainfall and strong gusty winds to portions of the Florida Keys and south Florida over the next couple of days. Additional information on this system can be found in offshore waters forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header miaoffnt3 and WMO header fznt24 kNHC, and also in products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. Additional special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as needed.

Elsewhere, tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

[srainhoutx]

We have a discussion already for 90L in our Hurricane Central sub forum...

http://forums.khou.com/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=1156

[Belmer]

We have a discussion already for 90L in our Hurricane Central sub forum...

http://forums.khou.com/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=1156

My bad. I keep this tap (February) open on my laptop all the time and just didn't think we would actually have a discussion on that quiet yet. It is February! But thanks for letting me know. Guess I will make that a second tab to keep open on my computer for the time being.

[Portastorm]

Interesting comments in this morning's area forecast discussion out of NWSFO Austin/San Antonio:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
405 AM CST MON FEB 6 2012

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT WILL PROMOTE A SMALL AREA
OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER MAINLY SRN COUNTIES THIS
MORNING AND IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE WEAK SW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO PROMOTE OVERRUNNING
LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WITH ADDITIONAL WEAK
DISTUBANCES POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. WILL KEEP ON THE
LOW SIDE OF HIGHS AS THE MODEL DATA APPEARS TO BE RUNNNING A DRY
AND WARM BIAS IN THIS PATTERN. FURTHER COOLING IS EXPECTED TUESDAY
NIGHT WHEN A REINFORCING FRONT ARRIVES ON THE HEELS OF A POLAR
DISTURBANCE DROPPING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BRIEF CLEARING COULD
OCCUR FROM THE NORTH...BUT MORE LIKELY THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE REINFORCED FROM THE WEST WHEN ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW
MOVES INTO BAJA CA WEDNESDAY. MODEL HAVE TRENDED STRONGER WITH A
LARGE UPPER LOW OVER EAST CENTRAL CANADA WITH A SHARP MERIDIONAL
FLOW PUSHING AND ENHANCING THE TUE/WED SURFACE RIDGE OVER TX. THIS
PATTERN COULD POTENTIALLY EVOLVE INTO A WINTER PRECIP
PATTERN OVER CENTRAL TX...BUT FOR NOW MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS TEMPS
ABOVE FREEZING. AN UNSETTLED PATTERN REMAINS IN STORE FOR THE
SOUTHERN US THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
SUGGESTS MORE COOL AND MOSTLY CLOUDY WEATHER.

[srainhoutx]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Active upper level jet will remain overhead through much of the week producing mostly cloudy skies and cool temperatures.

This morning another upper level disturbance in the noisy SW flow aloft has crossed the Rio Grande River and is generating an areas of showers SW of San Antonio. At the surface high pressure has built southward behind the Saturday morning cold front with cold air advection weakening. Morning temperatures have fallen into the mid 30’s over our northern counties to upper 40’s near the coast under mainly cloudy skies. While I am wary of the disturbance to the SW this morning, the infiltration of dry air at the surface will likely keep rain chances on the low side today…much like on Sunday. Will continue to see mid and upper level Pacific moisture move over the cold surface dome, but any rainfall should be on the light side and confined mainly to our western counties.

Active sub-tropical flow aloft will remain in place for the entire week into next weekend and even the following week. However the main axis of the disturbances aloft looks to be south of our region over S TX and into the Gulf of Mexico. While clouds look to hang tough most of the week rain chances will be on the low side until Thursday.

Toward the end of the week a large upper level low pressure system will drop deep into northern MX/Baja region and this will begin to spread large scale ascent back across mainly S TX. Forecast models have really backed down on rainfall and amounts during this period over SE TX, but they have been bouncing around with the idea of another rainfall event for days now with timing and position of the upper level storm system differing on nearly each run. I am hesitant to buy into the drier solution currently being offered as the pattern continues to be one of wetness. Of greater concern appears to be the digging of the storm system pretty far to the south, which may end up keeping the majority of the rainfall over S TX and the central Gulf of Mexico instead across SE TX.

Another cold front will cross the area late Tuesday and help keep temperatures cool into next week (lows in the lower 40’s and highs in the upper 50’s to near 60).

Hydro:

Impressive rainfall over the last 4 days is leading to significant rises/flows on area rivers. While most rivers are high, they remain within their banks with the exception of the Trinity River.

Flood Warning is in effect for the Trinity River at Liberty, Riverside, and Moss Bluff. Flood gate operations continue at Lake Livingston this morning. The lake has risen to 1.34 ft over its conservation pool level and TRA is releasing 37,200 cfs into the lower Trinity River. Additional gate operations and increased releases are possible today as upstream flood waves are passed through the system.

Trinity River at Liberty:
Current Stage: 26.27 Ft
Flood Stage: 26.0ft
Forecast: Slow rise to 27.7ft by early Wednesday morning. At 27.0 ft moderate low land flooding begins with several roads into subdivisions north of Liberty flooded cutting off residents. River is forecast to remain above flood stage through next Saturday.

Trinity River at Riverside:
Current Stage: 133.56 ft
Flood Stage: 134.0ft
Forecast: River crested at 134.0 ft yesterday morning and is in a slow fall. The river will continue falling through Friday.

Trinity River at Moss Bluff:
Current Stage: 14.59 ft
Flood Stage: 15.0ft
Forecast: The river will rise slowly to near 16.5 ft by Friday and hold. At levels above 15 ft flooding of rural land upstream and downstream of the gage occurs.

[harpman]

*tap* *tap* *tap*....is this thing on???

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Its certainly a pretty Winter Day... I have the windows down and it feels great driving across town.

[srainhoutx]

Well if one is watching all the models flip flop every 12 hours, there might be something happening. No rain via the 00Z output is now back with moisture and 'cooler temps' with the 12Z output. Maybe by Wednesday night/Thursday a better idea of what our sensible weather will actually be can be determined. That said, all the MJO forecast models suggest a phase 8-1-2 is ahead. Of course those are the same models that can't get an idea for the late week/weekend period as well... The HPC, in their very early morning extended discussion mention just how problematic guidance was beyond day 3 with the upper air disturbances as well as the Polar Vortex location and rotating short wave energy around that feature near Hudson Bay. As stated before, the guidance will change 10 times before we really have an idea what is going to happen. It's the nature of a pattern change and a chaotic Pacific.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

All I will say is its great to see a pattern change and uncertainty... certainly better than the firehose jet for the bulk of January

[weatherguy425]

And now the 12z Euro hammers the Northwestern third of Texas with a decent snowfall, which was pretty much non-existent on last night's 00z...and this is less than a week away, talk about volatility!

[wxman57]

The models are still having a difficult time agreeing beyond 3-4 days out, which has pretty much been the case all winter. The current NW Flow across Canada isn't really bringing any cold air down here, as there's not much really cold air IN Canada to come down. After the next week, it looks like a return to more zonal flow - as we've seen all winter. Might have a shot of another freeze here in the next 2 weeks, but nothing major.