Was wondering if there is a track record for predicting summer temps for the US (east of continental divide) when there has been this little snow cover over the US Midwest and Canada?
Seems like a dry winter could lead to early spring warmth/heat, and then possible above average summer heat?
Obviously, the driving force temps during spring/summer is rain so if spring/summer are wet then that could negate a dry winter. However, a dry winter combined with dry spring/summer sound like a recipe for extreme heat.
Question for weather experts about lack of snow
Here is what I found. I used snow coverage data from Rutgers from 1967 to 2011.
http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/fi ... ov.nam.txt
I used North America excluding Greenland.
Here is the outcome I found.
December to February (DJF) Average Snow Cover Relationship To Temperature
USA Annual Average
r = -0.33
p = 0.03
USA DJF Average
r = -0.70
p < 0.001
Texas Annual Average
r = -0.09
p = 0.057
Texas DJF Average
r = -0.44
p < 0.001
Upper Texas Coast Average
r = -0.09
p = 0.56
Upper Texas Coast DJF Average
r = -0.33
p = 0.03
The more snow coverage in the winter, the colder it is. It is negatively correlated. So less snow coverage means warmer winters. As for impact on annual average temperature, there is a correlation between temperature and snow coverage for America. Not so for Texas and Southeast Texas.
Here is winter snow coverage and summer temperatures.
USA JJA Average
r = 0.00
p = 0.99
Texas JJA Average
r = 0.25
p = 0.10
Upper Texas Coast JJA Average
r = 0.22
p = 0.15
There is no correlation between winter snow coverage and summer temperature for America. It can go either way. Interestingly, the more snow coverage Texas and Southeast Texas gets, the warmer the summers are. The correlation is not significant however as the p-value is above 0.05.
Top 10 Most Snow Coverage (Square Kilometers)
1.) 2010 16148642.3
2.) 1979 16123380.0
3.) 2011 15790874.0
4.) 1978 15713089.3
5.) 1985 15682118.7
6.) 2008 15675853.0
7.) 1993 15623249.3
8.) 2001 15598207.7
9.) 1984 15495469.7
10.) 1982 15484064.7
Interesting to note that 2008 makes the top 10 with most snow cover and yet Southeast Texas had a mild winter that time. 1977-1978 and 2009-2010 were El Nino winters, while 1984-1985 and 2010-2011 were La Nina winters. 1977-1978, 1978-1979, and 2009-2010 are among the coldest winters on record going back to 1895.
Top 10 Least Snow Coverage(Square Kilometers)
1.) 1981 13278313.0
2.) 1992 14023231.3
3.) 2000 14197271.7
4.) 1987 14322613.3
5.) 1977 14335512.7
6.) 1999 14338317.7
7.) 1989 14374001.3
8.) 1968 14500178.0
9.) 1998 14538329.0
10.) 1995 14541049.7
Interesting to note that 1976-1977 had the least snow cover in winter from 1967 to 2011, despite being one of the coldest winters on record going back to 1895. 1976-1977, 1986-1987, 1991-1992, and 1997-1998 were El Nino winters. 1988-1989, 1998-1999, and 1999-2000 were La Nina winters.
It would be interesting to see snow coverage from before 1967, like 1894-1895, 1898-1899, 1904-1905, and 1911-1912, other really cold winters.
http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/fi ... ov.nam.txt
I used North America excluding Greenland.
Here is the outcome I found.
December to February (DJF) Average Snow Cover Relationship To Temperature
USA Annual Average
r = -0.33
p = 0.03
USA DJF Average
r = -0.70
p < 0.001
Texas Annual Average
r = -0.09
p = 0.057
Texas DJF Average
r = -0.44
p < 0.001
Upper Texas Coast Average
r = -0.09
p = 0.56
Upper Texas Coast DJF Average
r = -0.33
p = 0.03
The more snow coverage in the winter, the colder it is. It is negatively correlated. So less snow coverage means warmer winters. As for impact on annual average temperature, there is a correlation between temperature and snow coverage for America. Not so for Texas and Southeast Texas.
Here is winter snow coverage and summer temperatures.
USA JJA Average
r = 0.00
p = 0.99
Texas JJA Average
r = 0.25
p = 0.10
Upper Texas Coast JJA Average
r = 0.22
p = 0.15
There is no correlation between winter snow coverage and summer temperature for America. It can go either way. Interestingly, the more snow coverage Texas and Southeast Texas gets, the warmer the summers are. The correlation is not significant however as the p-value is above 0.05.
Top 10 Most Snow Coverage (Square Kilometers)
1.) 2010 16148642.3
2.) 1979 16123380.0
3.) 2011 15790874.0
4.) 1978 15713089.3
5.) 1985 15682118.7
6.) 2008 15675853.0
7.) 1993 15623249.3
8.) 2001 15598207.7
9.) 1984 15495469.7
10.) 1982 15484064.7
Interesting to note that 2008 makes the top 10 with most snow cover and yet Southeast Texas had a mild winter that time. 1977-1978 and 2009-2010 were El Nino winters, while 1984-1985 and 2010-2011 were La Nina winters. 1977-1978, 1978-1979, and 2009-2010 are among the coldest winters on record going back to 1895.
Top 10 Least Snow Coverage(Square Kilometers)
1.) 1981 13278313.0
2.) 1992 14023231.3
3.) 2000 14197271.7
4.) 1987 14322613.3
5.) 1977 14335512.7
6.) 1999 14338317.7
7.) 1989 14374001.3
8.) 1968 14500178.0
9.) 1998 14538329.0
10.) 1995 14541049.7
Interesting to note that 1976-1977 had the least snow cover in winter from 1967 to 2011, despite being one of the coldest winters on record going back to 1895. 1976-1977, 1986-1987, 1991-1992, and 1997-1998 were El Nino winters. 1988-1989, 1998-1999, and 1999-2000 were La Nina winters.
It would be interesting to see snow coverage from before 1967, like 1894-1895, 1898-1899, 1904-1905, and 1911-1912, other really cold winters.
good stuff, Ptarmigan.
thanks for that.
thanks for that.
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I swear we can ask you anything and you can give us an answer.Ptarmigan wrote:Here is what I found. I used snow coverage data from Rutgers from 1967 to 2011.
http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/fi ... ov.nam.txt
I used North America excluding Greenland.
Here is the outcome I found.
December to February (DJF) Average Snow Cover Relationship To Temperature
USA Annual Average
r = -0.33
p = 0.03
USA DJF Average
r = -0.70
p < 0.001
Texas Annual Average
r = -0.09
p = 0.057
Texas DJF Average
r = -0.44
p < 0.001
Upper Texas Coast Average
r = -0.09
p = 0.56
Upper Texas Coast DJF Average
r = -0.33
p = 0.03
The more snow coverage in the winter, the colder it is. It is negatively correlated. So less snow coverage means warmer winters. As for impact on annual average temperature, there is a correlation between temperature and snow coverage for America. Not so for Texas and Southeast Texas.
Here is winter snow coverage and summer temperatures.
USA JJA Average
r = 0.00
p = 0.99
Texas JJA Average
r = 0.25
p = 0.10
Upper Texas Coast JJA Average
r = 0.22
p = 0.15
There is no correlation between winter snow coverage and summer temperature for America. It can go either way. Interestingly, the more snow coverage Texas and Southeast Texas gets, the warmer the summers are. The correlation is not significant however as the p-value is above 0.05.
Top 10 Most Snow Coverage (Square Kilometers)
1.) 2010 16148642.3
2.) 1979 16123380.0
3.) 2011 15790874.0
4.) 1978 15713089.3
5.) 1985 15682118.7
6.) 2008 15675853.0
7.) 1993 15623249.3
8.) 2001 15598207.7
9.) 1984 15495469.7
10.) 1982 15484064.7
Interesting to note that 2008 makes the top 10 with most snow cover and yet Southeast Texas had a mild winter that time. 1977-1978 and 2009-2010 were El Nino winters, while 1984-1985 and 2010-2011 were La Nina winters. 1977-1978, 1978-1979, and 2009-2010 are among the coldest winters on record going back to 1895.
Top 10 Least Snow Coverage(Square Kilometers)
1.) 1981 13278313.0
2.) 1992 14023231.3
3.) 2000 14197271.7
4.) 1987 14322613.3
5.) 1977 14335512.7
6.) 1999 14338317.7
7.) 1989 14374001.3
8.) 1968 14500178.0
9.) 1998 14538329.0
10.) 1995 14541049.7
Interesting to note that 1976-1977 had the least snow cover in winter from 1967 to 2011, despite being one of the coldest winters on record going back to 1895. 1976-1977, 1986-1987, 1991-1992, and 1997-1998 were El Nino winters. 1988-1989, 1998-1999, and 1999-2000 were La Nina winters.
It would be interesting to see snow coverage from before 1967, like 1894-1895, 1898-1899, 1904-1905, and 1911-1912, other really cold winters.
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I am not only the Statistical Specialist, I am the Historian.Andrew wrote: I swear we can ask you anything and you can give us an answer.
Let's see a sample what I have answered.Earliest and Latest to First Reach 80
Freezes in March
Hurricanes that likely gave major hurricane force winds in Houston
Correlation of July rainfall and major hurricane landfall
Snow cover and winter and summer temperature
The month with the most freezing temperature was January 1978, which is also the coldest month in Houston. It was like a reverse August 2011, which was constantly cold.