January: Increasing Clouds/Rain & Warmer To End Month

[srainhoutx]

What's worrisome to you srain? To me, I'll take Meso all day long... let it pour again, we need the rain! If that means a F0 or F1 skipping across suburbia Houston, so be it.

You say that now, but let me hear you say It when it goes over your house and you're paying for a $15,000 roof, new windows, installation, etc. won't be as much fun then, would it?
However, I do like severe weather; like lightning, heavy amounts of rain, even some fun wind storms, and even (small) hail. But tornadoes, I can do without that for the rest of my life.

Yes sir. Just had the roof replaced after a freak hail storm on July 26th to the tune of 12K+. Rain we can use, severe weather/flooding, not so much...

[svrwx0503]

The 12Z GFS has trended toward the over night Euro/Canadian/UKMet solution suggesting a deepening closed core U/L near the Big Bend Region. Worrisome to see the GFS continue to advertise a posibble meso and if the slower solution is correct, our severe weather chances would be later in the daytime hours than what we saw on January 9th. Additinal daytime heating may well make conditions at bit interesting. We wil see.

12z GFS model soundings would definitely support an organized severe weather threat across the region during the day on the 25th with both the available instability and helicity coming in higher than the Jan 9th event. PW's will also likely be extremely high for this time of year which will likely lead to some very intense rain rates under the stronger storms. Since the event is still 5 days out, hopefully the models can begin to come into better agreement and we can start to iron out the details. What is concerning about the 12z run is that it develops a surface low around Victoria during the mid-morning hours which in the past has proven to really help enhance the tornado threat across southeast Texas. So a lot to keep our eyes on as we head into the weekend.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

What's worrisome to you srain? To me, I'll take Meso all day long... let it pour again, we need the rain! If that means a F0 or F1 skipping across suburbia Houston, so be it.

You say that now, but let me hear you say It when it goes over your house and you're paying for a $15,000 roof, new windows, installation, etc. won't be as much fun then, would it?
However, I do like severe weather; like lightning, heavy amounts of rain, even some fun wind storms, and even (small) hail. But tornadoes, I can do without that for the rest of my life.

Oh, I agree, but I'll take that chance given that we need the extreme rain right now.

[weatherguy425]

Personally, I'm looking forward to the possibility of a changeover both Tuesday and Wednesday nights out here in Lubbock and trailing energy and colder air works in behind this system.

[srainhoutx]

And if the long range 12Z GFS is correct, we'll do it all again in early February...

[weatherguy425]

Hmm. Where did all the cold air go?

[srainhoutx]

I was just informed that Winter RECON will be tasked for 22/00Z and additional missions may be expected. The HPC has a lot of interest in our next week events...

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z GFS has trended toward the over night Euro/Canadian/UKMet solution suggesting a deepening closed core U/L near the Big Bend Region. Worrisome to see the GFS continue to advertise a posibble meso and if the slower solution is correct, our severe weather chances would be later in the daytime hours than what we saw on January 9th. Additinal daytime heating may well make conditions at bit interesting. We wil see.

12z GFS model soundings would definitely support an organized severe weather threat across the region during the day on the 25th with both the available instability and helicity coming in higher than the Jan 9th event. PW's will also likely be extremely high for this time of year which will likely lead to some very intense rain rates under the stronger storms. Since the event is still 5 days out, hopefully the models can begin to come into better agreement and we can start to iron out the details. What is concerning about the 12z run is that it develops a surface low around Victoria during the mid-morning hours which in the past has proven to really help enhance the tornado threat across southeast Texas. So a lot to keep our eyes on as we head into the weekend.

Just so folks can see, these are the precip totals that the GFS is suggesting for a 72 hour period ending at hour 150...

[srainhoutx]

It's official. There will be a Winter RECON mission 22/00Z for the G-IV with 16 drops. An additional G-IV mission as well as lower level C-130 mission have be tasked if needed.

[sambucol]

It's official. There will be a Winter RECON mission 22/00Z for the G-IV with 16 drops. An additional G-IV mission as well as lower level C-130 mission have be tasked if needed.

I'm really out of the loop lately regarding the weather. Why the winter recon and is there winter weather event headed our way?

[srainhoutx]

It's official. There will be a Winter RECON mission 22/00Z for the G-IV with 16 drops. An additional G-IV mission as well as lower level C-130 mission have be tasked if needed.

I'm really out of the loop lately regarding the weather. Why the winter recon and is there winter weather event headed our way?

During Wnter months, RECON missions are tasked out over the data sparse regions of the Pacific when significant weather events are expected. They flew last week for the Pacific NW/California heavy rain/snow event. In past El Nino years RECON has flown from Japan to HI. The up coming missions will fly from HI (G-IV high. Altitude) and from AK for the lower level C-130 mission. The HPC is needing additional data to be ingested into future model output for better forecasting purposes. These type missions are flown for Hurricanes as we all know.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z Euro suggested a deeper closed core U/L a bit further S crossing Central/SE TX with heavy rains/severe weather chances for next Wednesday. The HPC in their final update mentions some concern with a northern stream storm and enhancement or a much stronger/slower southern stream cyclone and potential development of a full latitude trough that extends from Canada to Mexico. Interesting days ahead gang. It does appear we may well be dealing with a significant weather event with flooding rain potential as well as the severe aspect. Stay Tuned!

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Happy Dance! Drinks on me... now if we could only get a full latitude trough and 20 degree weather over Houston... now that would be nice!

[tireman4]

Umm, I am lost here. Channel 13 has a high of 60 tomorrow ( gotta be a misprint on computer graphics) and NWS has a high of 73. Will someone bust? Oh my.

[Belmer]

Umm, I am lost here. Channel 13 has a high of 60 tomorrow ( gotta be a misprint on computer graphics) and NWS has a high of 73. Will someone bust? Oh my.

Nope, abc13 is correct! Front is coming in tomorrow, we could reach 73 for the high tomorrow around lunch before a front comes in. I don't think it will get that high though, probably around 70 or upper 60s. Tim Heller posted this on his facebook page about 2 hours ago:

"Tomorrow will be a backwards day in terms of temperature. We're expecting the high temp in the upper 60s during the morning with temps falling behind a cool front. We'll be in the upper 50s by late afternoon."

So tomorrow will actually be cool! Thank god. Especially since we (Houston) hit a record high today; 81 degrees.

[tireman4]

Ahh. Thanks for clearing that up. I just saw the graphics, did not hear Tim. Thanks.

[wxman57]

The front will probably stall just to our north. In any case, the high will at least be around 70-72 in about 6 hrs (midnight), and quite possibly low to mid 70s tomorrow afternoon. Sort of a tricky forecast, though, as it's hard to tell just where that front will put on the brakes.

[Ptarmigan]

We reached 81°F, the first time to reach 80s this year. Quite a far cry from last year. Quite early as well. Wednesday looks to be early.

[srainhoutx]

Midland/Odessa had an interesting observation this afternoon. Just a couple of things to think about as we enjoy the 'calm before the storm'...so to speak...have a great weekend, gang...

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPPING INTO NEW
MEXICO ON TUESDAY. ALL MODELS HAVE BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH
THE LOW WHICH I PREFER GIVEN THE LIMITED AMPLIFICATION OF THE
UPSTREAM RIDGE. THERE SHOULD BE A CONSTANT EASTERLY MOTION TO THE
LOW EVEN IF IT IS SLOW BUT THE TIMING WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT TO
PIN DOWN THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING
THAT THE UPPER LOW CENTER WILL PASS SOUTH OF MIDLAND AS THE
PREVIOUS ONES HAVE SO THERE SHOULD BE SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE AREA. THE AIRMASS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AS COLD AS THE
PREVIOUS SYSTEMS SO AT THIS TIME AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF WINTRY WEATHER...HOWEVER THERE IS VERY COLD AIR TO OUR NORTH
THAT HAS HAD LIMITED PENETRATION INTO THE SOUTHERN STATES THIS
WINTER AND IT WONT STAY UP THERE FOREVER. IF IT DOES NOT MOVE
SOUTH WITH THIS UPPER LOW THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A
PATTERN SHIFT IN THE 10-14 DAY PERIOD COULD RESULT IN COLDER
TEMPERATURES. FOR NOW THOUGH WILL KEEP PRIMARILY LIQUID PRECIP
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

[jasons2k]

We reached 81°F, the first time to reach 80s this year. Quite a far cry from last year. Quite early as well. Wednesday looks to be early.

Ahhh yes The weather felt great to me today. Nothing makes me happier than a nice, humid onshore flow, especially in the dead of winter. My skin has just about had it with the cold and Spring can't get here soon enough.