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Re: ENSO Updates
Posted: Fri Apr 27, 2018 8:04 am
by stormlover
thanks for the response!!!
Re: ENSO Updates
Posted: Mon Apr 30, 2018 9:55 pm
by Ptarmigan
This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.4ºC
Niño 3.4 0.0ºC
Niño 3 -0.2ºC
Niño 1+2 -0.7ºC
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf
All regions warmed.
Re: ENSO Updates
Posted: Sun May 06, 2018 5:14 pm
by Ptarmigan
Ben Noll
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Some key takeaways from the new ECMWF seasonal:
-Weak or moderate #ElNiño favored by Nov.
-Atlantic ACE at 70% of normal.
-Anomalous warmth this summer focused over NW & NE U.S.
-Transitions to a warm fall in the NE.
-Caribbean drought potential.
-Hawaii tropical cyclone risk.
EURO is forecasting weak to moderate El Nino.
Re: ENSO Updates
Posted: Sun May 06, 2018 5:19 pm
by srainhoutx
The same ECMWF suggested El Nino would return last Hurricane Season and we remember just how wrong it was. Over years of monitoring these ENSO Seasonal Computer Ensemble schemes, they tend to rush what ends up being reality. But that's just my observation...
Re: ENSO Updates
Posted: Mon May 07, 2018 6:50 pm
by Ptarmigan
This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.2ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.2ºC
Niño 3 -0.3ºC
Niño 1+2 -0.6ºC
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf
Region 1+2 warmed. All other regions cooled.
Re: ENSO Updates
Posted: Mon May 07, 2018 6:54 pm
by Ptarmigan
srainhoutx wrote:The same ECMWF suggested El Nino would return last Hurricane Season and we remember just how wrong it was. Over years of monitoring these ENSO Seasonal Computer Ensemble schemes, they tend to rush what ends up being reality. But that's just my observation...
I usually take long term forecasts with a grain of salt.
Re: ENSO Updates
Posted: Mon May 14, 2018 7:12 pm
by Ptarmigan
This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.3ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.1ºC
Niño 3 -0.2ºC
Niño 1+2 -0.6ºC
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf
Region 1+2 is the same. All regions warmed.
Re: ENSO Updates
Posted: Tue May 15, 2018 7:20 am
by stormlover
what does all regions warmed mean?
Re: ENSO Updates
Posted: Tue May 15, 2018 8:10 am
by srainhoutx
stormlover wrote:what does all regions warmed mean?
Note the warming is generally very slow across all Regions. For those anxious to call for El Nino by peak Hurricane Season, I believe a neutral ENSO state seems more likely. That said we may see a more Central Pacific based El Nino Modoki by Winter. Time will tell.
Re: ENSO Updates
Posted: Tue May 15, 2018 8:39 am
by stormlover
thank you
Re: ENSO Updates
Posted: Fri May 18, 2018 10:08 am
by MontgomeryCoWx
srainhoutx wrote:stormlover wrote:what does all regions warmed mean?
Note the warming is generally very slow across all Regions. For those anxious to call for El Nino by peak Hurricane Season, I believe a neutral ENSO state seems more likely. That said we may see a more Central Pacific based El Nino Modoki by Winter. Time will tell.
Modoki Nino's tend to be fairly generous to our area during our favorite time of the year... WINTER!
Typically cool and wet.
Re: ENSO Updates
Posted: Sun May 20, 2018 11:36 am
by Ptarmigan
srainhoutx wrote:stormlover wrote:what does all regions warmed mean?
Note the warming is generally very slow across all Regions. For those anxious to call for El Nino by peak Hurricane Season, I believe a neutral ENSO state seems more likely. That said we may see a more Central Pacific based El Nino Modoki by Winter. Time will tell.
When there is a Modoki El Nino, the winters tend to be colder. 1904-1905, 1911-1912, 1963-1964, 1976-1977, 1977-1978,and 2009-2010 were Modoki El Nino with cold winters.
Re: ENSO Updates
Posted: Mon May 21, 2018 7:11 pm
by Ptarmigan
This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.2ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.1ºC
Niño 3 -0.2ºC
Niño 1+2 -0.4ºC
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf
Region 1+2 has warmed. Region 3 and 3.4 remains the same. Region 3 cooled.
Re: ENSO Updates
Posted: Tue May 29, 2018 7:06 pm
by Ptarmigan
This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.2ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.1ºC
Niño 3 -0.1ºC
Niño 1+2 -0.8ºC
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf
Region 1+2 cooled. Region 3 warmed. Region 3.4 and 4 remains the same.
Re: ENSO Updates
Posted: Mon Jun 04, 2018 7:54 pm
by Ptarmigan
This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.2ºC
Niño 3.4 0.0ºC
Niño 3 0.2ºC
Niño 1+2 -0.1ºC
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf
All regions warmed, except for Region 4.
Re: ENSO Updates
Posted: Mon Jun 11, 2018 7:09 pm
by Ptarmigan
This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.2ºC
Niño 3.4 0.0ºC
Niño 3 0.2ºC
Niño 1+2 -0.5ºC
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf
Region 1+2 cooled. The rest are unchanged.
Re: ENSO Updates
Posted: Sun Jun 17, 2018 12:08 pm
by Ptarmigan
El Niño Watch
https://www.climate.gov/enso
Looks like El Nino could develop again this year.
Re: ENSO Updates
Posted: Mon Jun 18, 2018 6:59 pm
by Ptarmigan
This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.3ºC
Niño 3.4 0.2ºC
Niño 3 0.2ºC
Niño 1+2 -1.0ºC
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf
Region 1+2 cooled. Region 3 remains the same. Region 3.4 and 4 warmed.
Re: ENSO Updates
Posted: Mon Jun 25, 2018 10:45 pm
by Ptarmigan
This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.4ºC
Niño 3.4 0.4ºC
Niño 3 0.4ºC
Niño 1+2 -1.0ºC
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf
Region 1+2 remains the same. All the regions warmed.
Re: ENSO Updates
Posted: Mon Jul 02, 2018 9:25 pm
by Ptarmigan
This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.5ºC
Niño 3.4 0.4ºC
Niño 3 0.4ºC
Niño 1+2 -0.7ºC
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf
Region 1+2 and 4 warmed. Region 3 and 3.4 remain the same.