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Re: ENSO Updates
Posted: Mon Jan 22, 2018 9:09 pm
by Ptarmigan
This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 -0.3ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.6ºC
Niño 3 -0.9ºC
Niño 1+2 -0.6ºC
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf
All regions warmed except Region 4, which cooled.
Re: ENSO Updates
Posted: Tue Jan 23, 2018 7:03 am
by MontgomeryCoWx
Let’s go neutral!
Re: ENSO Updates
Posted: Mon Jan 29, 2018 8:36 pm
by Ptarmigan
This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 -0.4ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.7ºC
Niño 3 -1.1ºC
Niño 1+2 -0.9ºC
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf
All regions cooled.
Re: ENSO Updates
Posted: Mon Feb 05, 2018 9:49 pm
by Ptarmigan
This Weeks' ENSO
Niño 4 -0.5ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.9ºC
Niño 3 -1.2ºC
Niño 1+2 -0.9ºC
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf
Region 1+2 remains the same. Region 3, 3.4, and 4 cooled.
Re: ENSO Updates
Posted: Mon Feb 19, 2018 11:24 pm
by Ptarmigan
This Week's ENSO (2/12/2018)
Niño 4 -0.3ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.9ºC
Niño 3 -1.3ºC
Niño 1+2 -0.7ºC
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf
http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/s ... clnk&gl=us
Region 1+2 and 4 warmed. Region 3.4 is the same, while Region 3 cooled.
Re: ENSO Updates
Posted: Mon Feb 19, 2018 11:28 pm
by Ptarmigan
This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 -0.4ºC
Niño 3.4 -1.0ºC
Niño 3 -1.1ºC
Niño 1+2 -0.6ºC
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf
Region 1+2 and 3 warmed. Region 3.4 and 4 cooled.
Re: ENSO Updates
Posted: Mon Feb 26, 2018 11:03 pm
by Ptarmigan
This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 -0.2ºC
Niño 3.4 -1.1ºC
Niño 3 -0.9ºC
Niño 1+2 0.0ºC
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf
Region 1+2, 3, and 4 warmed. Region 3.4 cooled. Region 1+2 is very volatile due to South America, which can affect ocean temperature.
Re: ENSO Updates
Posted: Mon Mar 05, 2018 9:44 pm
by Ptarmigan
This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 -0.2ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.8ºC
Niño 3 -0.6ºC
Niño 1+2 0.2ºC
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf
Region 1+2, 3, and 3.4 warmed. Region 4 is the same. Looks like La Nina is fading.
Re: ENSO Updates
Posted: Sun Mar 11, 2018 9:41 pm
by Ptarmigan
Unusually warm Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures help to arrest development of El Niño in 2014
https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/gtmba/feature ... lopment-el
A warm Indian Ocean played a role in slowing El Nino development in 2014. The Indian Ocean plays a huge role in world's weather.
Re: ENSO Updates
Posted: Sun Mar 11, 2018 9:45 pm
by Ptarmigan
IRI ENSO Forecast
https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/ ... -cpc_plume
They have a 40% chance El Nino will develop by the end of the year.
Climate Prediction Center-El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostic Discussion
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... disc.shtml
CPC is predicting that La Nina will fade by this Spring.
Re: ENSO Updates
Posted: Mon Mar 12, 2018 9:50 pm
by Ptarmigan
This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 -0.1ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.7ºC
Niño 3 -0.9ºC
Niño 1+2 -0.4ºC
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf
Region 1+2 and 3 cooled. Region 3.4 and 4 warmed.
Re: ENSO Updates
Posted: Tue Mar 13, 2018 9:52 pm
by Ptarmigan
La Niña ends; ENSO Outlook set to INACTIVE
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/outlook/
Code: Select all
The weak 2017-18 La Niña that has been active since December 2017, has ended. All atmospheric and oceanic indices are now at neutral levels, with most model outlooks suggesting neutral-ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) is the most likely scenario through the southern hemisphere autumn and early winter. The ENSO Outlook has returned to INACTIVE.
An INACTIVE status means that ENSO is neutral and there are no clear indications that an El Niño or La Niña event will develop in the coming months.
Bureau climatologists routinely monitor the tropical Pacific for any signs of developing ENSO events, regardless of the ENSO Outlook status. Further information on the current status of ENSO can be found in the ENSO Wrap-Up, linked below.
The Australian BOM has declared La Nina over.
Re: ENSO Updates
Posted: Mon Mar 19, 2018 9:43 pm
by Ptarmigan
This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 -0.1ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.7ºC
Niño 3 -0.7ºC
Niño 1+2 -0.7ºC
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf
Region 1+2 cooled, while Region 3 warmed. Region 3.4 and 4 remains the same.
Re: ENSO Updates
Posted: Mon Mar 26, 2018 10:13 pm
by Ptarmigan
This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.0ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.8ºC
Niño 3 -0.7ºC
Niño 1+2 -1.2ºC
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf
Region 1+2 and 3.4 cooled. Region 3 is the same, while Region 4 warmed.
Re: ENSO Updates
Posted: Mon Apr 02, 2018 10:30 pm
by Ptarmigan
This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 -0.1ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.7ºC
Niño 3 -0.6ºC
Niño 1+2 -0.6ºC
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf
Region 1+2, 3, and 3.4 warmed. Region 4 cooled.
Re: ENSO Updates
Posted: Mon Apr 09, 2018 9:48 pm
by Ptarmigan
This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 -0.1ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.5ºC
Niño 3 -0.3ºC
Niño 1+2 -1.1ºC
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf
Region 1+2 cooled. Region 3 and 3.4 warmed. Region 4 remains the same.
Re: ENSO Updates
Posted: Mon Apr 16, 2018 10:18 pm
by Ptarmigan
This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.0ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.4ºC
Niño 3 -0.3ºC
Niño 1+2 -1.3ºC
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf
Region 1+2 cooled. Region 3 remains the same. Region 3.4 and 4 warmed.
Re: ENSO Updates
Posted: Mon Apr 23, 2018 9:17 pm
by Ptarmigan
This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.1ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.2ºC
Niño 3 -0.3ºC
Niño 1+2 -1.2ºC
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf
Region 1+2 and 3.4 warmed. Region 3 is the same, while Region 4 cooled.
Re: ENSO Updates
Posted: Fri Apr 27, 2018 7:53 am
by stormlover
srain, what are your thoughts? Do you think its going to be neutral year? el nino year?
Re: ENSO Updates
Posted: Fri Apr 27, 2018 8:03 am
by srainhoutx
stormlover wrote:srain, what are your thoughts? Do you think its going to be neutral year? el nino year?
Neutral looks more likely than El Nino for Hurricane Season. Watching carefully the potential for 2 very robust Convectively Coupled Kelvin Waves crossing the Atlantic Basin in May. I'll address that in our 2018 Hurricane Season General Discussion Topic in our Hurricane Central Section over the next week or so. It's almost that time of year when all eyes turn to the Tropics.