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SOI is dropping.

For 4/23/12

The latest weekly SST departures are:

Niño 4 -0.3ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.4ºC
Niño 3 0.1ºC
Niño 1+2 1.5ºC

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 -0.1ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.1ºC
Niño 3 0.2ºC
Niño 1+2 1.6ºC

Last Week's ENSO
Niño 4 -0.3ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.4ºC
Niño 3 0.1ºC
Niño 1+2 1.5ºC

Some forecast a strong El Nino, like 1972-1973, 1982-1983, and 1997-1998.

The warm upwell is putting an end to the cool water.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... zteq.shtml

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 -0.1ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.1ºC
Niño 3 0.2ºC
Niño 1+2 1.6ºC

Last Week's ENSO
Niño 4 -0.1ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.1ºC
Niño 3 0.2ºC
Niño 1+2 1.6ºC

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

More models are predicting a stronger El Nino this summer.




ENSO Diagnosis Discussion
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... odisc.html

Predicts Neutral through the summer.

Seasonal Climate Forecast May – July 2012
http://www.oregon.gov/ODA/NRD/docs/pdf/ ... e.pdf?ga=t

Analog years are 1968, 1972, and 2009. Years that went from La Nina to El Nino.

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 -0.3ºC
Niño 3.4 0.0ºC
Niño 3 0.1ºC
Niño 1+2 1.0ºC

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

The European predicts El Nino this season.

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 -0.2ºC
Niño 3.4 0.0ºC
Niño 3 0.2ºC
Niño 1+2 0.9ºC

Last Week's ENSO
Niño 4 -0.3ºC
Niño 3.4 0.0ºC
Niño 3 0.1ºC
Niño 1+2 1.0ºC

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 -0.1ºC
Niño 3.4 0.2ºC
Niño 3 0.4ºC
Niño 1+2 0.9ºC

Last Week's ENSO
Niño 4 -0.2ºC
Niño 3.4 0.0ºC
Niño 3 0.2ºC
Niño 1+2 0.9ºC

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

they moved the needle more into neutral June 5th on NOAAWatch http://www.noaawatch.gov/

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 -0.2ºC
Niño 3.4 0.1ºC
Niño 3 0.4ºC
Niño 1+2 1.5ºC

Last Week's ENSO
Niño 4 -0.1ºC
Niño 3.4 0.2ºC
Niño 3 0.4ºC
Niño 1+2 0.9ºC

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 -0.2ºC
Niño 3.4 0.3ºC
Niño 3 0.6ºC
Niño 1+2 1.5ºC

Last Week's ENSO
Niño 4 -0.2ºC
Niño 3.4 0.1ºC
Niño 3 0.4ºC
Niño 1+2 1.5ºC

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf


SOI is dropping into negative territory.

SOI values for 18 Jun 2012Average for last 30 days -7.4
Average for last 90 days -4.2
Daily contribution to SOI calculation -15.0

Monthly average SOI values
March 2.3
April -6.2
May -2.4

http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seaso ... /index.php

The Equatorial East Pacific is warming up.

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.0ºC
Niño 3.4 0.4ºC
Niño 3 0.8ºC
Niño 1+2 1.7ºC

Last Week's ENSO
Niño 4 -0.2ºC
Niño 3.4 0.3ºC
Niño 3 0.6ºC
Niño 1+2 1.5ºC

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

Here comes El Nino!

Latest discussion from the Climate Prediction Center says Nino is coming alright. It's now a matter of how strong will it be?

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... sodisc.pdf

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.0ºC
Niño 3.4 0.6ºC
Niño 3 0.9ºC
Niño 1+2 1.5ºC

Last Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.0ºC
Niño 3.4 0.4ºC
Niño 3 0.8ºC
Niño 1+2 1.7ºC

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

Looks like we are heading towards El Nino.

Two Types of El Nino Events: Cold Tongue El Nino and Warm Pool El Nino
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10. ... JCLI2624.1

There are different kinds of El Ninos/La Ninas. They are not all the same.

Should be interesting to see if we get a CT El Nino this year. Those typically bring the harshest Winters.

1972-73
1982-83
1997-98

Interesting..... I thought I might draw a correlation between those values, the type of Winter HGX had and the type of El Nino, but I'm not seeing much.

With the PDO tanking this year and El Nino, I was thinking we might see a repeat of one of these.

Portastorm wrote:Latest discussion from the Climate Prediction Center says Nino is coming alright. It's now a matter of how strong will it be?

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... sodisc.pdf

How is Lake Travis doing these days? We saw some amazing pics last summer of the lake at very low levels.