January 2025

[Cpv17]

By the way y'all, Mr Hebert (wxman57) is having fun with you all right now.

He recognizes the pattern and knows it’s getting cold and quite cold.

No one worth their salt, is going to predict on precip this far out.

Oh come on. He likes playing the miser/bad guy. LOL

Yep, you can say that again.

[Stratton20]

yeah we all know wxman57’s jet is getting prepared as we speak

[tireman4]

NWS Houston

[jabcwb2]

Hi , First of all, thank you so much for keeping us all weather aware!

Quick question. The temps we are seeing posted...are those all day temps or just the lows?

Thank you!

[sambucol]

Pow Ponder
https://www.facebook.com/share/1FfpDPrZ ... tid=wwXIfr

[Stratton20]

SE texas now upped to a moderate risk of hazardous temperatures, its coming

[suprdav2]

I love how my weather apps are showing highs in the low 50s/upper 40s and lows in the upper 30s/mid 40s like it's just a regular old cold front. Haha!

[MontgomeryCoWx]

I love how my weather apps are showing highs in the low 50s/upper 40s and lows in the upper 30s/mid 40s like it's just a regular old cold front. Haha!

They always factor in climatology. Weather apps are largely trash outside 5 days.

[tireman4]

737
FXUS64 KHGX 132002
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
202 PM CST Mon Jan 13 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 144 PM CST Mon Jan 13 2025

Fairly quiet weather is expected through tomorrow as high
pressure remains situated just to the north. Mostly clear skies
and breezy northeasterly winds will persist through the day today.
Cloud cover does begin to increase through beginning Tuesday
afternoon or evening as yet another coastal low begins to slide up
through the west-central Gulf. This disturbance may lead to some
isolated light rain showers along the coast late Tuesday night,
then increasing in coverage on Wednesday (but more on that in the
Long Term below).

High temperatures today and Tuesday will be in the mid to upper
50s. Overnight low temperatures tonight will get down into the mid
30s to low 40s for most of the area - but near freezing
temperatures are likely in the Piney Woods. Low temperatures
Tuesday night will rise around 5 to 10 degrees thanks to the
increased cloud cover with most of the region staying in the 40s:
low 40s to the north, mid to upper 40s down to the coast.

Fowler

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 144 PM CST Mon Jan 13 2025

Look for increasing rain chances during the day on Wednesday and
Wednesday night as a coastal low develops over the Western Gulf of
Mexico, bringing an increase in low level moisture while a mid to
upper level trough moves across the Southern Plains. Due to
mostly the rainfall and cloudy skies, the highs on Wednesday will
be slightly cooler, with most of Southeast TX possibly seeing
highs in the low 50s. The coastal low is expected to track east
and move into the central Gulf waters Thursday. As it does so,
drier air will move into our local area, high pressure will build
over TX, and we will see a decrease in rain chances.

WAA increases Friday into Saturday as southerly flow quickly returns
and pushes in warm moist air from the Gulf. We may be seeing highs
in the mid to upper 60s for many locations on both days. Rain
chances are expected to return Friday and continue into Friday
night. Friday night into Saturday morning, an upper level trough is
expected to move across the Southern Plains and an associated cold
front will race across TX, possibly moving through Southeast TX
during the morning hours. A dry cold airmass will quickly spread
across the region in the wake of the front later on Saturday. Make
sure to bundle up, because we might see a 30 degree drop in
temperatures overnight Saturday. By sunrise, temperatures could be
in the 30s for most of the local area. CAA will continue on Sunday
night, resulting in even colder conditions with lows near or below
freezing for much of the region.

24

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1057 AM CST Mon Jan 13 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Breezy
northeasterly winds of 10-15kt will persist through the late
afternoon/early evening then lower to 5-8kt overnight through
Tuesday morning. The one exception being GLS where elevated wind
speeds of 9-14kt will likely persist through the night.

Fowler

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 144 PM CST Mon Jan 13 2025

Moderate to occasionally strong northeast to east winds and seas
generally between 3 to 6 feet are expected through Thursday. For
the bays, some spots could see low water levels during low tide.
Onshore flow will briefly return Friday, turning southwesterly
Friday night ahead of the next cold front. The front is forecast
to move across Southeast TX on Saturday, possibly reaching the
coast by late morning or early afternoon. Strong offshore winds
and elevated seas will develop in the wake of the front. In
general, Caution Flags and Advisories will continue throughout
much of the forecast period. In addition, expect periods of
showers mid week through the upcoming weekend.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 55 34 57 43 / 0 0 0 10
Houston (IAH) 58 39 56 45 / 0 0 0 10
Galveston (GLS) 56 45 54 48 / 0 0 0 20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Low Water Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for GMZ330-335.

Small Craft Should Exercise Caution from midnight CST tonight
through Tuesday evening for GMZ330-370-375.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for GMZ350-
355.

Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through Tuesday evening for
GMZ350-355.

Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST tonight for GMZ370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Fowler
LONG TERM....Cotto (24)
AVIATION...Fowler
MARINE...Cotto (24)

[tireman4]

Frontal Prospective Temperatures from HGX NWS

Make sure to bundle up, because we might see a 30 degree drop in
temperatures overnight Saturday. By sunrise, temperatures could be
in the 30s for most of the local area. CAA will continue on Sunday
night, resulting in even colder conditions with lows near or below
freezing for much of the region.

[Brazoriatx979]

From Travis herzog Facebook page


MONDAY 1/13/25 ARCTIC FRONT UPDATE

Our confidence is growing that Texas will take a direct hit from the arctic cold front that arrives this weekend, and we now expect a hard freeze in Houston. If interior pipes running through the attic are left unprotected when temperatures get into the low 20s, they are at risk of freezing up and even bursting if made of metal or PVC.

This map shows predicted low temperatures across Texas on Monday morning, which could end up being the coldest this front has to offer.

That will all depend on whether or not any ice or snow comes along with it. If wintry precipitation does accumulate on the ground, then it could get even colder the following nights.

If you're still on the fence about the preparations you want to take, we've still got several more days to refine the forecast and finalize those preparations.

This is a a good week to stay looped into the forecast as it evolves, and we'll continue to bring you a forecast you can trust and depend upon!

Full Forecast for Houston: abc13.com/forecast

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Euro moving back to a more extreme solution.

[Brazoriatx979]

We don't need or want anything extreme..just cold enough for snow

[Cpv17]

All depends on the strength of the HP on how cold it’ll get IMO.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

All depends on the strength of the HP on how cold it’ll get IMO.

In late January, you don’t need anything real big to get real cold. Now, in November and December you really need 1050 plus.

In late January, a 1040s will do.

[biggerbyte]

Hey folks, as of tonight it really looks like the artic airmass will push south into our area. There is also about a 20 to 30 percent chance of some form of frozen precipitation around the 20th. We are starting to trend now for both the cold and some moisture to be in place.

It is a one shot opportunity. The high pressure bringing in the chill will push the moisture away and dry things out. It's a powerful system. No doubt.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

I know we are focused on next week, but man, the EPO doesn’t want to go neutral or positive anytime soon. We could extend this into the first week or two of February.

[Cpv17]

I know we are focused on next week, but man, the EPO doesn’t want to go neutral or positive anytime soon. We could extend this into the first week or two of February.

That’s what I was thinking too.

[Stratton20]

Not just the EPO, the WPO also looks to stay negative through the first week of february, maybe 2nd week

[Cromagnum]

Don't see any precipitation forecasted. Just wasted cold.