txsnowmaker wrote:Fingers crossed that Euro keeps Thurs/Friday disturbance in play.
.03 inch. It is still there but yea....
EDIT: then .05 inch so....
Also Euro is having trouble with temps that far out.
Thanks Andrew. Are you suggesting that the Euro may be underestimating the cold?
Yea it is really weird. For instance 6z temps are colder than 12z. Also the EURO is painting more moisture as trace amounts continue until Saturday and then it gets cold! -3.2C for 850 temps with surface being below freezing (SN)
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Andrew wrote:
Also Euro is having trouble with temps that far out.
Looking at it on the Plymouth site, it actually has the 0c line right over us at hour 120.
The upper air looks like the CMC, actually, but nowhere near as warm. Looks like this run would give us a chance at some snow, too...
Yea more moisture this run but the interesting thing is that Sat we see the coldest 850 temps and that translates to cold surface temps so if we did get snow it would stick until Sat morning at least.
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Andrew wrote:Yea more moisture this run but the interesting thing is that Sat we see the coldest 850 temps and that translates to cold surface temps so if we did get snow it would stick until Sat morning at least.
Awesome
So it sounds like the Euro is slightly warmer in the upper levels as we have the moisture and may be marginal for snow, while the GFS is cold enough but marginal for moisture...
I'm just now seeing the 0z Euro on the PSU site, and it definitely is not a bad run at all. I actually like that setup a bit more than the GFS as the upper level disturbance is sort of a closed low over Texas, which is what we want.... Upper levels are only slightly warmer and I think they'd still support snow for Houston. Maybe some trouble around the coast.
I guess the main point to get out of this is that both the GFS and Euro have this disturbance, but they differ on strength, moisture, and cold air. However, both models would seem to support snow (however light it may be) at some point on friday.
Mr. T wrote:I'm just now seeing the 0z Euro on the PSU site, and it definitely is not a bad run at all. I actually like that setup a bit more than the GFS as the upper level disturbance is sort of a closed low over Texas, which is what we want.... Upper levels are only slightly warmer and I think they'd still support snow for Houston. Maybe some trouble around the coast.
I guess the main point to get out of this is that both the GFS and Euro have this disturbance, but they differ on strength, moisture, and cold air. However, both models would seem to support snow (however light it may be) at some point on friday.
I really feel like the Euro is under-doing it though for being so closed to being closed off. I could see some moisture being pulled up and who knows...
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Andrew wrote:
I really feel like the Euro is under-doing it though for being so closed to being closed off. I could see some moisture being pulled up and who knows...
Perhaps so... I'd really like to see the GFS flip to the Euro but with the upper level temperatures in tact. Honestly, though, even if the GFS warmed up a few degrees it wouldn't hurt us too much right now.
There's definitely another shallow arctic airmass trying to squeeze its way in here after day 7, kind of like the GFS but a lot quicker...
The upcoming pattern this week across the Pacific does keep things favorable for more arctic intrusions for the first half of the February. We are going to have one hell of a negative anomaly for the first half of Feb.
I was looking over some of the ensemble MOS guidance for this upcoming week and they are colder than the operational guidance. Several of the members suggest not one, but two nights next week reaching the upper teens in the Houston area with highs in the 30s through the week
HGX has entered snow into the forecast for Houston. Also lowered temps a bit through the period.
Tuesday...Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely in the morning...then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Breezy...cooler. Highs in the lower 60s. Temperature falling into the mid 40s in the afternoon. South winds 15 to 20 mph in the morning becoming northwest 20 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent in the morning decreasing to 20 percent in the afternoon.
Tuesday Night...Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Much colder. Lows in the mid 20s. Northwest winds 15 to 25 mph.
Wednesday...Partly cloudy. Much colder. Highs in the upper 30s. North winds 10 to 20 mph. Lowest wind chill readings 7 to 17 in the morning.
Wednesday Night...Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Lows in the lower 20s.
Thursday...Mostly cloudy. Highs around 40.
Thursday Night And Friday...Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow and a slight chance of rain. Lows in the mid 20s. Highs around 40. Chance of precipitation 30 percent.
Friday Night...Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. A 20 percent chance of snow. Lows in the upper 20s.
THE FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BECOMES MORE
CHALLENGING WITH CHANGES IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. WATER VAPOR
SHOWS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER MONTANA/CANADA BORDER WITH
A JET STREAK COMING INTO THE BACK SIDE OF IT OVER THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES. ALL OF THE MODELS DROP THIS TROUGH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
ROCKIES NEAR THE 4 CORNERS REGION BY WED. THE MODELS THEN BEGIN
TO DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS WITH THE ECMWF/CANADIAN HOLDING THE
TROUGH OVER THE S ROCKIES WITH THE GFS/NAM BEING MORE
PROGRESSIVE. THE GFS ENSEMBLE IS SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE TWO MODEL
CAMPS BUT CLOSER TO THE SLOWER ECMWF/CANADIAN SOLUTIONS. BY 12Z
FRI...THE GFS HAS THE TROUGH OVER C TX WITH STRONG QG FORCING AND
LARGE SCALE ASCENT OVER SE TX. THE SAME CAN BE SAID WITH THE
ECMWF/CANADIAN SOLUTIONS BUT DELAYED BY 6 TO 12 HRS. THE
COMBINATION OF WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND FRONTOGENETIC LIFT WITH
THE LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR PRECIP BANDS TO FORM
OVER SE TX. GIVEN THE ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE...POSSIBLE THAT
PRECIP WILL FALL AS SNOW LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS. CLOSER TO
THE COAST...PRECIP MAY TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SLEET TO SNOW
DEPENDING ON HOW TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE PROFILES EVOLVE. THERE
IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF FROZEN
PRECIP. THERE ARE STILL TIMING ISSUES WITH THE TROUGH AND WHEN
THE BEST LIFT OCCURS COMBINED WITH THE RIGHT TEMP/MOISTURE
PROFILES. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE MAY BE LACKING AT FIRST WITH
SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S. EVAPORATIVE COOLING/WET
BULBING OCCURRING WITH THE STRONG ASCENT MAY HELP ELIMINATE THIS
DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS. THIS SCENARIO MAY BE MORE FAVORABLE
WITH A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH LIKE THE ECMWF. THERE IS
STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION BUT FOR NOW PRECIP
WILL BE KEPT AS A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW TO START...SNOW OVER INLAND
AREAS WHERE/WHEN FREEZING TEMPS OCCUR...WITH A MIX AGAIN DURING
THE DAY FRI. WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION OF SLEET IN THE FORECAST AS
DETAILS WILL CHANGE AND WILL TRY TO NAIL DOWN THESE DETAILS WITH
FUTURE FORECASTS.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
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I like how the cold air will actually already be overhead for several days before this possible event thursday night/friday unlike the past two snow events in Dec 08 and Dec 09.
Thanks for your input Andrew and Mr. T.
