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txsnowmaker wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 10:13 am What is the 12z ICON showing for precip in the Houston area?

Dry, but only goes out until the 23rd.

Goodness Gracious the ICON. Only for entertainment purposes at this time. I am waiting for the weekend for a continued trend. It is still too far out for a complete certainty in my mind.

txsnowmaker wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 10:13 am What is the 12z ICON showing for precip in the Houston area?

Suppression would be way too strong the first couple days after that strong of a front for precipitation. We could however still get some action on the 3rd or 4th day after that. The 12z and 0z ICON only go out to 180 hours. That wouldn’t even cover Christmas yet.

So we're thinking precip on the 25 and 26 correct if it does happen? Not before

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 10:19 am

txsnowmaker wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 10:13 am What is the 12z ICON showing for precip in the Houston area?

Suppression would be way too strong the first couple days after that strong of a front for precipitation. We could however still get some action on the 3rd or 4th day after that. The 12z and 0z ICON only go out to 180 hours. That wouldn’t even cover Christmas yet.

Got it. I’ll take 20s or 30s with snow over teens.

Looks like the 12Z GFS is also coming with some changes.Its slower with the trough and further west.And colder also.

don wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 10:43 am Looks like the 12Z GFS is also coming with some changes.Its slower with the trough and further west.And colder also.

Yeah the ICON might be sniffing something out here.

No snow on this run as the shortwave is still there but is too sheared out to produce enough lift.

The CMC with a pretty big shift west as well.

Classic, GFS Giveth and GFS taketh, but at least models are maybe starting to come closer to agreement on the cold, that is a good thing

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 11:00 am Classic, GFS Giveth and GFS taketh

Haha yep I figured it would happen but overall I think this could be the beginning of a positive trend as long as there’s still decent support on the GEFS for some wintry precip. Just need that trough to keep digging down SW and slow down. -NAO might allow it.

This thread will soon have more pages than the Sep, Oct, Nov threads combined. Just shows how boring the weather has been until the last week or so.

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 10:59 am The CMC with a pretty big shift west as well.

It sure did,it will be interesting to see if this is a start of a trend back to the west with the trough.

Page 100 by the 16th of Dec! Something exciting must be happening! J/k 🫣

All models trending back west. Makes the most sense given what we know about Arctic air.

so whats the reason behind the models trending back to the west with the trough? Is it just the arctic air?

We know the air is coming pretty sure now..what we need to watch out for now is the trough and weather or not a gulf low develops

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 11:45 am so whats the reason behind the models trending back to the west with the trough? Is it just the arctic air?

In the medium range like we’re in now it’s common for the models to shift east. It’s a known bias. They usually shift back west as the event draws closer back towards their original idea. This has been happening with the models for as long as I can remember. Models have a difficult time handling dense Artic air in the south and the models also could’ve been overdoing the PNA too far positive.

brazoriatx wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 11:47 am We know the air is coming pretty sure now..what we need to watch out for now is the trough and weather or not a gulf low develops

Watch anything trying to undercut the ridge in the west and phase into the STJ. It’s possible.

Early on in the 12z Euro run right now but it’s looking like it wants go further west as well so far.