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don wrote: ↑Thu Feb 17, 2022 10:09 pm 0Z ICON still shows a winter storm down into SE Texas.

Stormlover2020 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 17, 2022 11:07 pm Yeah I don’t have weather nerds

vci_guy2003 wrote: ↑Fri Feb 18, 2022 7:31 am Ch 13 shows 50s and 60s for highs all next week. What gives?

Instability should be more limited on Wednesday, but with this
lead front not looking likely to scour things out, we`ll see rain
chances drag right on through Wednesday, and into Wednesday night,
where another front may try to make something interesting of late
February. This front will be shoved down by a 1040ish high over
the Northern Plains, and could have some solid (and deeper!) cold
advection along with it. And though it`s starting to get pretty
late in the winter, a strong high, incoming deep cold air, and
moisture in place, well - over the next several days I will have
to do more precipitation type analysis than I care to.

For now, the forecast pattern aloft suggests to me that the worst
of this arctic air mass will be swept to the east before pushing
into Southeast Texas. So, for now, I am planning on sticking with
keeping all of my precipitation in the forecast in the liquid
form. But...we are several days out right now, and lots can
change, and wintry precip often rests on a razor`s edge. I don`t
know that things could shift enough to put Houston in serious
threat of seeing anything frozen. But Caldwell, College Station,
Crockett? Hey, the chances are probably 10 percent or less, but
the setup is plausible enough that I`ll have to spend the rest of
my midnight shifts evaluating if anything has changed to make it
anything more than an outside possibility. I, for one, welcome our
new Spring overlords and look forward to keeping everything in
the forecast as rain.

don wrote: ↑Fri Feb 18, 2022 8:30 am HGX morning discussion on next week.

Instability should be more limited on Wednesday, but with this
lead front not looking likely to scour things out, we`ll see rain
chances drag right on through Wednesday, and into Wednesday night,
where another front may try to make something interesting of late
February. This front will be shoved down by a 1040ish high over
the Northern Plains, and could have some solid (and deeper!) cold
advection along with it. And though it`s starting to get pretty
late in the winter, a strong high, incoming deep cold air, and
moisture in place, well - over the next several days I will have
to do more precipitation type analysis than I care to.

For now, the forecast pattern aloft suggests to me that the worst
of this arctic air mass will be swept to the east before pushing
into Southeast Texas. So, for now, I am planning on sticking with
keeping all of my precipitation in the forecast in the liquid
form. But...we are several days out right now, and lots can
change, and wintry precip often rests on a razor`s edge. I don`t
know that things could shift enough to put Houston in serious
threat of seeing anything frozen. But Caldwell, College Station,
Crockett? Hey, the chances are probably 10 percent or less, but
the setup is plausible enough that I`ll have to spend the rest of
my midnight shifts evaluating if anything has changed to make it
anything more than an outside possibility. I, for one, welcome our
new Spring overlords and look forward to keeping everything in
the forecast as rain.

“Next week will be tough. All of the elements that make for a crazed weather forecast will be in play, starting on President's Day and lasting until the end of the month.

By now you have heard about the mammoth cold intrusion from Siberia, which will ooze out of Canada this weekend, then make a mad dash for the Gulf Coast and Mexican border. The formation of an Alaska/Yukon block starts to take shape next Wednesday and Thursday, creating a cross-polar flow aloft that will take a regime from Siberia into the lower 48 states. Also helping in this process is a broad, neutral-tilt, full-latitude trough at 500MB, spawning low pressure in the Texas Panhandle. It looks like that cyclone will be big wind producer as it tracks through New York State and then into New Brunswick by February 27.

But it is the precipitation array that draws your attention. Severe thunderstorm and torrential rainfall in parts of Dixie; heavy snow from the central Great Plains through the lower Great Lakes and St. Lawrence Valley; and the potential threat for a freezing rain/sleet event from N TX into middle and upper Appalachia.

Now add onto this mess the ongoing high wind potential, Arctic air mass, and the weakening of the protective heat ridge in Florida and the Bahamas. That action leaves the door open for yet another storm to impact Texas, the Deep South, and the Eastern Seaboard. With the blocking ridge at its strongest in the first week of next month, it is unlikely that any serious moderation will get underway in the lower 48 states before March 10.

Have a nice holiday weekend, everyone!”

jasons2k wrote: ↑Fri Feb 18, 2022 11:02 am The models will continue to flip-flop this far out. Don’t hang your hat on a single set either way. Patience.