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Re: TS Alex. 440 Miles ESE of La Pesca. 65 MPH/985 MB
Posted: Mon Jun 28, 2010 11:18 pm
by Mr. T
Snowman wrote:yea we will see once this storm stops moving NORTH....
According to the latest recon center fixes, the storm has begun a NW heading, albeit slowly...
Re: TS Alex. 440 Miles ESE of La Pesca. 65 MPH/985 MB
Posted: Mon Jun 28, 2010 11:22 pm
by Andrew
Mr. T wrote:Snowman wrote:yea we will see once this storm stops moving NORTH....
According to the latest recon center fixes, the storm has begun a NW heading, albeit slowly...
I think we are still on wobble watch.
Re: TS Alex. 440 Miles ESE of La Pesca. 65 MPH/985 MB
Posted: Mon Jun 28, 2010 11:24 pm
by Snowman
Andrew wrote:Mr. T wrote:Snowman wrote:yea we will see once this storm stops moving NORTH....
According to the latest recon center fixes, the storm has begun a NW heading, albeit slowly...
I think we are still on wobble watch.
yea i dont care what the models are saying now the storm has moved directly north all day! i will be watching the satellite imagery rather than the models
Re: TS Alex. 440 Miles ESE of La Pesca. 65 MPH/985 MB
Posted: Mon Jun 28, 2010 11:32 pm
by Mr. T
0z GFS QPF totals:
Parallel 0z GFS QPF totals
0z NAM QPF totals
Point being, hurricanes are not just a dot on a line, and SE TX will likely see beneficial rains from Alex. It may be even too much, and flooding could definitely become an issue.
Re: TS Alex. 440 Miles ESE of La Pesca. 65 MPH/985 MB
Posted: Mon Jun 28, 2010 11:42 pm
by Paul
Tyler the last 3 fixes average out to be North.....but its wobbling for sure....making a run at the weakness is my thougths tonight...that ULL over in the Bahamas might keep the ridge at bay but not for long...
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm3.html
but I am done watching the models.... fairly certain where its going now.....
Re: TS Alex. 440 Miles ESE of La Pesca. 65 MPH/985 MB
Posted: Mon Jun 28, 2010 11:45 pm
by Andrew
Paul wrote:Tyler the last 3 fixes average out to be North.....but its wobbling for sure....making a run at the weakness is my thougths tonight...that ULL over in the Bahamas might keep the ridge at bay but not for long...
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm3.html
but I am done watching the models.... fairly certain where its going now.....
Where do you think it is going?
Re: TS Alex. 440 Miles ESE of La Pesca. 65 MPH/985 MB
Posted: Mon Jun 28, 2010 11:47 pm
by Paul
model runs are very telling...even if they had only 2/3 of the upper air sampling inputted....
Re: TS Alex. 440 Miles ESE of La Pesca. 65 MPH/985 MB
Posted: Mon Jun 28, 2010 11:49 pm
by Mr. T
Paul wrote:Tyler the last 3 fixes average out to be North.....but its wobbling for sure..
I was just referring to a recon center fix map posted on Eastern where they had found the center had begun moving just a bit more westerly. It indeed could be just a wobble, or the beginnings of a more NW heading.
Re: TS Alex. 440 Miles ESE of La Pesca. 65 MPH/985 MB
Posted: Mon Jun 28, 2010 11:50 pm
by Mr. T
Andrew wrote:
Where do you think it is going?
Oh! I want to answer too teacher!
If you had asked this yesterday I would have said just north of Brownsville, but I think I like the NHC track at this point...
Re: TS Alex. 440 Miles ESE of La Pesca. 65 MPH/985 MB
Posted: Mon Jun 28, 2010 11:51 pm
by Snowman
Mr. T wrote:Paul wrote:Tyler the last 3 fixes average out to be North.....but its wobbling for sure..
I was just referring to a recon center fix map posted on Eastern where they had found the center had begun moving just a bit more westerly. It indeed could be just a wobble, or the beginnings of a more NW heading.
I see what you mean by looking at the satellite it will be interesting to see if it keeps moving west. i just hope it doesnt get near the coast and stall out and move north again!
Re: TS Alex. 440 Miles ESE of La Pesca. 65 MPH/985 MB
Posted: Mon Jun 28, 2010 11:52 pm
by Mr. T
0z CMC similar to 0z GFS. South of the border landfall
Re: TS Alex. 440 Miles ESE of La Pesca. 65 MPH/985 MB
Posted: Mon Jun 28, 2010 11:52 pm
by Scott747
Mr. T wrote:Andrew wrote:
Where do you think it is going?
Oh! I want to answer too teacher!
If you had asked this yesterday I would have said just north of Brownsville, but I'm I think I like the NHC track at this point...
I should be in Brownsville right now getting ready to cross the border tomorrow.
Re: TS Alex. 440 Miles ESE of La Pesca. 65 MPH/985 MB
Posted: Mon Jun 28, 2010 11:54 pm
by Paul
the door is still open for sure for a NNW run but its feeling the ridge to its east now ( increase in forward speed) and the 2 highs are looking to merge in the mid states
earlier I was concerned about a stall at the coast and another SV digging in the PAC- NW that could pick it up before landfall.....I think that is out of the mix now....
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm3.html
Re: TS Alex. 440 Miles ESE of La Pesca. 65 MPH/985 MB
Posted: Mon Jun 28, 2010 11:54 pm
by Andrew
Paul wrote:the door is still open for sure for a NNW run but its feeling the ridge to its east now ( increase in forward speed) and the 2 highs are looking to merge in the mid states
earlier I was concerned about a stall at the coast and another SV digging in the PAC- NW that could pick it up before landfall.....I think that is out of the mix now....
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm3.html
So you think Mexico?
Re: TS Alex. 440 Miles ESE of La Pesca. 65 MPH/985 MB
Posted: Mon Jun 28, 2010 11:55 pm
by Mr. T
Andrew wrote:
So you think Mexico?
Where do you think?
Re: TS Alex. 440 Miles ESE of La Pesca. 65 MPH/985 MB
Posted: Mon Jun 28, 2010 11:56 pm
by Andrew
Mr. T wrote:Andrew wrote:
So you think Mexico?
Where do you think?
Me?
Re: TS Alex. 440 Miles ESE of La Pesca. 65 MPH/985 MB
Posted: Mon Jun 28, 2010 11:56 pm
by Mr. T
Andrew wrote:Mr. T wrote:Andrew wrote:
So you think Mexico?
Where do you think?
Me?
yup
Re: TS Alex. 440 Miles ESE of La Pesca. 65 MPH/985 MB
Posted: Mon Jun 28, 2010 11:59 pm
by Andrew
Mr. T wrote:Andrew wrote:Mr. T wrote:
So you think Mexico?
Where do you think?
Me?
yup[/quote]
Well a couple of days ago I would of said Corpus but now with the good model consensus and the system moving I think Brownsville or a tad to the north is my guess as of now.
You?
Re: TS Alex. 440 Miles ESE of La Pesca. 65 MPH/985 MB
Posted: Tue Jun 29, 2010 12:10 am
by Scott747
0z HWRF -
It has even shifted S by a decent margin.
Re: TS Alex. 440 Miles ESE of La Pesca. 65 MPH/985 MB
Posted: Tue Jun 29, 2010 12:11 am
by Mr. T
Andrew wrote:
Well a couple of days ago I would of said Corpus but now with the good model consensus and the system moving I think Brownsville or a tad to the north is my guess as of now.
You?
Aight, cool
Like I said:
If you had asked this yesterday I would have said just north of Brownsville, but I think I like the NHC track at this point...
Certainly, anything is possible at this point!