January 2025
NWS will be conservative until they are certain.
Last edited by jasons2k on Mon Jan 13, 2025 3:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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vci_guy2003
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I guess it’s possible that the extreme solutions come back in later runs?
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Brazoriatx979
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almost a grantee at this point. Models are going to flip back and forth. Its a givenvci_guy2003 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 13, 2025 9:26 am I guess it’s possible that the extreme solutions come back in later runs?
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tireman4
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From Wxman over at S2K
I think that the 00z EC has come to its senses in not forecasting 5 days below freezing in Houston next week. It was even colder than the always too cold Canadian. 00Z EC ensembles are not as cold as the EC operational, with the EC-AIFS even warmer. 00Z EC has quite a different upper air pattern, being more progressive with the trof and not developing a west Gulf low to cause precip in the cold air. Works for me. However, it's still 7-10 days out so expect further model changes.
Here is the plot for next week from the 00Z models for Houston. Similar to last week's temps, if not quite as cold and wet.
I think that the 00z EC has come to its senses in not forecasting 5 days below freezing in Houston next week. It was even colder than the always too cold Canadian. 00Z EC ensembles are not as cold as the EC operational, with the EC-AIFS even warmer. 00Z EC has quite a different upper air pattern, being more progressive with the trof and not developing a west Gulf low to cause precip in the cold air. Works for me. However, it's still 7-10 days out so expect further model changes.
Here is the plot for next week from the 00Z models for Houston. Similar to last week's temps, if not quite as cold and wet.
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Brazoriatx979
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blah blah blah..same song same dance from him lol
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Brazoriatx979
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12z icon has snow for north texas. nothing here. same as last week.
We'll see. The Canadian was gold in 2021. It's still a believer in the power of dense air.
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Brazoriatx979
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GFS has snow in Houston! lets goooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo
Winter storm for hou and south eat texas
Winter storm for hou and south eat texas
Last edited by Brazoriatx979 on Mon Jan 13, 2025 10:40 am, edited 1 time in total.
Here is POW Ponder weather update who I trust. Please folks listen to trusted weather sources for updates. I want it snow just as bad as anyone else but remember what issue comes along with it.
https://youtu.be/bgmxSzetN44?si=iYQ6zizcF5i3jDG7
https://youtu.be/bgmxSzetN44?si=iYQ6zizcF5i3jDG7
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Brazoriatx979
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maybe we get lucky
Last edited by Brazoriatx979 on Mon Jan 13, 2025 11:14 am, edited 1 time in total.
Yes!!!! The GFS has come around!Brazoriatx979 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 13, 2025 10:29 am GFS has snow in Houston! lets goooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo
Winter storm for hou and south eat texas
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biggerbyte
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The GFS is definitely showing some snow in the area. It's the lone wolf. I'm not buying it just yet. The jury is still out on the ultra cold temps, too. I'm not alone. Not one weather entity entity has anything more dramatic than what we have already seen. Confidence is very low.
As usual, we are going to need to get down to a couple of days out. That is how it's always been in this part of Texas. I mentioned a couple of days ago to not get our hopes up. We are just going to need to be patient.
As usual, we are going to need to get down to a couple of days out. That is how it's always been in this part of Texas. I mentioned a couple of days ago to not get our hopes up. We are just going to need to be patient.
Thanks for sharing POW’s video. Very informative.walsean1 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 13, 2025 10:54 am Here is POW Ponder weather update who I trust. Please folks listen to trusted weather sources for updates. I want it snow just as bad as anyone else but remember what issue comes along with it.
https://youtu.be/bgmxSzetN44?si=iYQ6zizcF5i3jDG7
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MontgomeryCoWx
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By the way y'all, Mr Hebert (wxman57) is having fun with you all right now.
He recognizes the pattern and knows it’s getting cold and quite cold.
No one worth their salt, is going to predict on precip this far out.
He recognizes the pattern and knows it’s getting cold and quite cold.
No one worth their salt, is going to predict on precip this far out.
Team #NeverSummer
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tireman4
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MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Mon Jan 13, 2025 12:47 pm By the way y'all, Mr Hebert (wxman57) is having fun with you all right now.
He recognizes the pattern and knows it’s getting cold and quite cold.
No one worth their salt, is going to predict on precip this far out.
Oh come on. He likes playing the miser/bad guy. LOL