JANUARY 2018 - Seasonal WX Week/Pacific Front Saturday

[christinac2016]

I saw where there's rain in the forecast I think Saturday and Sunday. I'm hoping it ends or holds up Sunday morning for walk on the waterway. Saturday morning too.

[tireman4]

831
FXUS64 KHGX 181755
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1155 AM CST Thu Jan 18 2018

.AVIATION...
VFR 5-9k ft BKN-OVC ceilings through the early Friday morning
hours...lowering into MVFR around or just after sunrise. Warm air
advection pattern will be kicking in from tonight through the next
cold frontal passage on Sunday night/Monday morning. A developing
western Gulf low and the existence of a coastal warm front moving
inland tomorrow will thicken up and lower Friday overcast and
increase southern hub showers. VCSH from metro southward Friday
morning...more widespread light precipitation transitioning
further north from tomorrow afternoon through Sunday. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1034 AM CST Thu Jan 18 2018/

DISCUSSION...

Cloud cover spreading northeast across the area this morning.
Appears we will see mostly cloudy skies areawide by mid-day.
Slightly cooler max temps when compared to model guidance appears
to be the way to go this aft. Only minor adjustments are being
made to the aft temp forecast. We should see lower 40s across most
areas by mid afternoon. The far northern areas could remain in
the upper 30s depending on the degree of cloud cover. 33

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CST Thu Jan 18 2018/

DISCUSSION...
The Hard Freeze Warning remains in effect until 9 AM this morning
for counties mainly along and north of Interstate 10 where 3 AM
temperatures are in the mid teens to lower 20s. To the south of
these spots, temperatures are generally ranging from the mid to
upper 20s inland to the low to mid 30s at the coast. Cloud cover
that has been making slow progress to the northeast across our
area is partly associated with the slow moving far west Texas area
mid/upper level low. These clouds will likely keep high temperatures
in the low to mid 40s across a majority of the area today, and will
probably keep tonight`s/Friday morning`s low temperatures mostly
in the 30s. Expect to see increasing rain chances mainly Friday
and Friday night as the low moves eastward across the state. Will
adjust these rain chances (and gain a little more confidence) over
the next day or two as models hopefully come into better agreement
with the location/strength/movement of the low. We are more confident
with the temperature forecast that becomes significantly warmer
(highs in the 50s Friday, in the 60s/70s Saturday and mostly in
the 70s on Sunday) as south to southeast winds return to the area
and strengthen. Look for increasing shower and possible thunderstorm
chances Sunday and Sunday night associated with the approach and
passage of a Pacific cold front. Will continue to keep the first
half of next week dry with temperatures mainly near normal. 42

MARINE...
As surface high pressure moves away, a coastal trof will develop
along the Tx coast. Winds will veer to the NE & E today and
eventually from the E to SE Friday. The pressure gradient will
tighten so wind speeds will increase and seas will build offshore.
May need small craft advisories in the 20-60nm group as early as
Friday.

The cold water temps closer to the coast will limit onshore wind
speeds, but with a warmer airmass moving overhead we do expect to
see some sea fog development by Friday evening in between periods of
precipitation going into Saturday. The sea fog will remain a threat
until the next front (and probably line of showers/tstms) Sunday
night. Moderate offshore winds in its wake may require caution/advsy
flags into Monday. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 30 52 46 67 59 / 10 30 40 20 30
Houston (IAH) 34 53 52 71 60 / 10 30 40 30 20
Galveston (GLS) 41 55 52 66 60 / 10 50 50 30 20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...33
Aviation/Marine...31

[tireman4]

Interesting tidbit for this Winter so far.....

Some southern @NWS offices have issued more #winter storm warnings than northern offices this season: http://wxch.nl/2ETATrC

[brooksgarner]

Watching for a chance of sleet or freezing drizzle/rain for a brief window north of I-10 after midnight, should precip get here early. Temps near or just above freezing with dew points in the teens and 20s. Wetbulbing will result in temps falling should precip present itself. NWS says low chance of anything. Canadian model and my dead reckoning (is that a model?) says it's possible. At least worth a mention since most of the roads here are not treated. Even a brief freezing drizzle could cause some major, major issues. This would likely only happen in pockets far N and NW of Houston..... at this point. More likely than anything else, we won't see anything due to lack of precip... however isentropic lifting plain of 290K look interesting as the ridge moves away.

[BlueJay]

That Weather Channel Report is interesting. I hope that this does not become a trend for the South!

[tireman4]

One thing I would like to add, if ( big IF) we do have a La Nina Summer, all this precipitation is a good thing to have. More moisture now, less for the really intensive heat if a High Pressure wants to park over us. The pro mets can chime in on this....

[harp]

That Weather Channel Report is interesting. I hope that this does not become a trend for the South!

What did they say?

[djmike]

Any indications this will happen again any time soon? I know its early to tell, but just wondering if any models were sniffing anything out. Hope not. Haven't been able to get maybe 8 hrs in this week. We need a break.

[tireman4]

Scroll up. The map of Winter Weather Storm Warnings...

[brooksgarner]

One thing to watch tonight with dew points in the teens and low 20s... any precip will wet bulb for a time before the warm air arrives.

1.PNG

[don]

Yep ive been watching that for the past day, chances are small but not out of the realm of possibilities, the RGEM shows that also and even the Euro tries to bring a little moisture in overnight...

[BlueJay]

Will we be able to uncover our plants before May?

[DoctorMu]

One thing to watch tonight with dew points in the teens and low 20s... any precip will wet bulb for a time before the warm air arrives.

1.PNG

Right. The dew point is only 15°F near Pleasanton, where light showers are forming south of San Antonio, moving NE. That moisture should arrive between College Station and Houston around 10 pm, if it continue on its current line.. Should be interesting.

[davidiowx]

Will we be able to uncover our plants before May?

Hehehe yes, tomorrow. But who knows how long it will last (few days? a week?) before they are covered up again!

Interesting little note from Brooks earlier. I seem to recall models showing a little bit a frozen precip for today a few days ago then they backed off of it (I think or the main event a few days ago took over).

[DoctorMu]

Will we be able to uncover our plants before May?

Hehehe yes, tomorrow. But who knows how long it will last (few days? a week?) before they are covered up again!

Interesting little note from Brooks earlier. I seem to recall models showing a little bit a frozen precip for today a few days ago then they backed off of it (I think or the main event a few days ago took over).

Last week, some of the models were more confident of a Thursday event, rather than Monday.

[davidiowx]

Will we be able to uncover our plants before May?

Hehehe yes, tomorrow. But who knows how long it will last (few days? a week?) before they are covered up again!

Interesting little note from Brooks earlier. I seem to recall models showing a little bit a frozen precip for today a few days ago then they backed off of it (I think or the main event a few days ago took over).

Last week, some of the models were more confident of a Thursday event, rather than Monday.

I would be perfectly ok with another nice sleet storm tonight. Although not likely, it would still be a cool little surprise!

We still have white patches around the building at work and I am sure there are plenty more in the shaded areas at the house. I can't remember the last time the white stuff stuck around longer than a few hours.

[mckinne63]

We still have white patches around the building at work and I am sure there are plenty more in the shaded areas at the house. I can't remember the last time the white stuff stuck around longer than a few hours.

Same here! There was a large swatch of ice along the side of the building! Was not a walking path, but was still surprised to see it there this morning. We still have some ice on our glider cover in the back yard also. The white stuff in the yard is very gradually disappearing.

[Katdaddy]

Temps much warmer in the upper 30s and 40s across SE TX this morning as showers move across the Middle and Upper TX coast. The warming trend will continue through the weekend clouds and showers.

[snowman65]

BRRR...Look at that, will ya...

[CrashTestDummy]

Will we be able to uncover our plants before May?

You still have plants worth covering?!? I think Tuesday got pretty much everything that wasn't inside, but I haven't checked our greenhouse and tool shed yet. The frigid weather even got a hummingbird.