000
WTNT43 KNHC 060851
TCDAT3
Hurricane Rafael Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
400 AM EST Wed Nov 06 2024
Rafael continues to intensify as it approaches western Cuba. Deep
convection within the hurricane's Central Dense Overcast (CDO) is
very intense, with cloud tops colder than -80 deg C. There are
also strong convective banding features surrounding the CDO.
Observations from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate a
closed eyewall at times, with the central pressure falling at a
rate of around 2 mb per hour. Based on the highest flight-level
winds reported from the aircraft so far, the current intensity is
set at 80 kt for this advisory. Rafael's inner core is relatively
small in size, with hurricane-force winds extending about 25 n mi
from its 10-15 n mi wide eye.
The hurricane continues its northwestward trek, and the initial
motion is a slightly faster 315/12 kt. For the next day or two,
Rafael should continue to move along the southwestern side of a
mid-level high pressure system and move over the southeastern Gulf
of Mexico through Thursday night. After 48 hours the track guidance
becomes very divergent, with a number of model solutions taking the
system toward the southwest Gulf in 3-4 days. It appears that,
during the latter part of the forecast period, a mid-level ridge
could build to the north of the tropical cyclone. This could
force Rafael to turn to the west or south of west in 4 to 5 days.
In order to maintain continuity from the previous NHC predictions,
the official track forecast is shifted to the left of the previous
one, but not as far as dictated by the latest model consensus. If
future model runs continue to show this trend, however, additional
leftward adjustment to the NHC track may be required.
Rafael is expected remain in an environment of high oceanic heat
content, low vertical wind shear and a very moist low- to
mid-tropospheric air mass until the center reaches western Cuba.
Therefore, the cyclone will probably be nearing major hurricane
status at landfall in Cuba. Once the system moves over the Gulf of
Mexico, the environment should become increasingly less conducive
for Rafael to maintain its intensity. Increasing southwesterly
shear, significantly drier air, and gradually decreasing SSTs are
likely to result in weakening. The official forecast remains near
the high end of the model guidance in the 3- to 5-day forecast
period. This is similar to the previous NHC intensity forecast.
Key Messages:
1. Rafael is expected to strengthen to near major hurricane
intensity before reaches western Cuba and the Isle of Youth
today. A hurricane warning is in effect for this region, where
damaging hurricane-force winds, life-threatening storm surge, and
destructive waves are also expected.
2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Lower and Middle
Florida Keys beginning today and tonight.
3. It is too soon to determine what, if any, impacts Rafael could
bring to portions of the northern Gulf Coast. Residents in this
area should regularly monitor updates to the forecast.
4. Rafael will bring areas of heavy rain across portions of the
Western Caribbean through early Thursday, including the islands of
Jamaica and the Caymans along with western Cuba. Flash flooding and
mudslides are expected along the higher terrain in western Cuba.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/0900Z 20.6N 81.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 22.0N 82.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 07/0600Z 23.6N 84.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 07/1800Z 24.3N 85.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 08/0600Z 24.6N 87.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 08/1800Z 24.9N 88.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 09/0600Z 25.2N 89.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 10/0600Z 26.3N 91.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 11/0600Z 27.0N 92.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
$$
Forecaster Pasch
2024 Hurricane Season Discussion
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6016
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
000
WTNT33 KNHC 061159
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
Hurricane Rafael Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
700 AM EST Wed Nov 06 2024
...RAFAEL CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...
...EXPECTED TO BE NEAR MAJOR HURRICANE INTENSITY AT LANDFALL
IN WESTERN CUBA...
SUMMARY OF 700 AM EST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.0N 81.6W
ABOUT 90 MI...140 KM ESE OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM SSE OF HAVANA CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The government of the Cayman Islands has discontinued the Hurricane
Warning for Grand Cayman.
The government of Cuba has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch
for the Cuban provinces of Camaguey and Las Tunas.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Little Cayman and Cayman Brac
* Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque,
Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritus,
and Ciego de Avila
* Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to west of the
Channel 5 Bridge
* Dry Tortugas
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning areas. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM EST (1200 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Rafael was located
near latitude 21.0 North, longitude 81.6 West. Rafael is moving
toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A general northwestward
motion is anticipated over the next day or two, followed by a
gradual west-northwestward turn in the Gulf of Mexico. On the
forecast track, Rafael is expected move near or over the Isle of
Youth later this morning or early this afternoon, and make landfall
in western Cuba later today. Rafael is forecast to move into the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico tonight.
Reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the
maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (160 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast, and Rafael
could be near major hurricane intensity before it makes landfall in
Cuba later today. Rafael is forecast to weaken over Cuba but is
expected to emerge into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico as a
hurricane.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105
miles (165 km).
The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft observations is 964 mb (28.47 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Rafael can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header
WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml
WIND: Hurricane conditions, possibly in gusts, are expected in
portions of the Cayman Islands for the next couple of hours.
Hurricane conditions are expected in western Cuba and the Isle of
Youth today. Tropical storm conditions are expected in parts of
west-central Cuba and the lower and middle Florida Keys today and
tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible farther east in
central Cuba today.
RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall will impact areas of the Western Caribbean
through early Thursday, particularly across Jamaica and the Cayman
Islands into western Cuba. Rainfall totals between 4 to 7 inches
are expected across the Cayman Islands and western Cuba, with
isolated higher totals up to 10 inches anticipated across areas of
higher terrain. This will lead to areas of flash flooding and
mudslides. Across Jamaica, heavy rain bands on the backside of
Rafael will bring an additional 1 to 3 inches of rain.
Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected for the Lower and
Middle Florida Keys.
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Rafael, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf
STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by 1 to 3 feet
above normal tide levels in the Cayman Islands, and could raise
water levels by as much as 9 to 13 feet above normal tide levels in
areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of Cuba in the
Hurricane Warning area, including the Isle of Youth on Wednesday.
The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally
dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving
inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following
heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Dry Tortugas...1-3 ft
Lower Florida Keys...1-2 ft
TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today over the Florida
Keys and far southwestern Florida mainland.
SURF: Swells generated by Rafael are expected to affect much of the
western Caribbean during the next few days and will also spread
across most of the Gulf of Mexico from east to west late this week
into the early part of the weekend. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM EST.
$$
Forecaster Brown
WTNT33 KNHC 061159
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
Hurricane Rafael Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
700 AM EST Wed Nov 06 2024
...RAFAEL CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...
...EXPECTED TO BE NEAR MAJOR HURRICANE INTENSITY AT LANDFALL
IN WESTERN CUBA...
SUMMARY OF 700 AM EST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.0N 81.6W
ABOUT 90 MI...140 KM ESE OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM SSE OF HAVANA CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The government of the Cayman Islands has discontinued the Hurricane
Warning for Grand Cayman.
The government of Cuba has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch
for the Cuban provinces of Camaguey and Las Tunas.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Little Cayman and Cayman Brac
* Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque,
Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritus,
and Ciego de Avila
* Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to west of the
Channel 5 Bridge
* Dry Tortugas
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning areas. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM EST (1200 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Rafael was located
near latitude 21.0 North, longitude 81.6 West. Rafael is moving
toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A general northwestward
motion is anticipated over the next day or two, followed by a
gradual west-northwestward turn in the Gulf of Mexico. On the
forecast track, Rafael is expected move near or over the Isle of
Youth later this morning or early this afternoon, and make landfall
in western Cuba later today. Rafael is forecast to move into the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico tonight.
Reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the
maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (160 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast, and Rafael
could be near major hurricane intensity before it makes landfall in
Cuba later today. Rafael is forecast to weaken over Cuba but is
expected to emerge into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico as a
hurricane.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105
miles (165 km).
The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft observations is 964 mb (28.47 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Rafael can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header
WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml
WIND: Hurricane conditions, possibly in gusts, are expected in
portions of the Cayman Islands for the next couple of hours.
Hurricane conditions are expected in western Cuba and the Isle of
Youth today. Tropical storm conditions are expected in parts of
west-central Cuba and the lower and middle Florida Keys today and
tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible farther east in
central Cuba today.
RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall will impact areas of the Western Caribbean
through early Thursday, particularly across Jamaica and the Cayman
Islands into western Cuba. Rainfall totals between 4 to 7 inches
are expected across the Cayman Islands and western Cuba, with
isolated higher totals up to 10 inches anticipated across areas of
higher terrain. This will lead to areas of flash flooding and
mudslides. Across Jamaica, heavy rain bands on the backside of
Rafael will bring an additional 1 to 3 inches of rain.
Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected for the Lower and
Middle Florida Keys.
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Rafael, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf
STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by 1 to 3 feet
above normal tide levels in the Cayman Islands, and could raise
water levels by as much as 9 to 13 feet above normal tide levels in
areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of Cuba in the
Hurricane Warning area, including the Isle of Youth on Wednesday.
The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally
dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving
inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following
heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Dry Tortugas...1-3 ft
Lower Florida Keys...1-2 ft
TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today over the Florida
Keys and far southwestern Florida mainland.
SURF: Swells generated by Rafael are expected to affect much of the
western Caribbean during the next few days and will also spread
across most of the Gulf of Mexico from east to west late this week
into the early part of the weekend. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM EST.
$$
Forecaster Brown
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6016
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
The Eyewall
Rafael moves along in the Gulf with one of the oddest November forecast tracks you’ll ever see
By Matt Lanza on November 7, 2024
Headlines
Rafael will continue west and eventually turn southwest, steered by high pressure over Florida and the northeast Gulf.
Rafael unlikely to cause serious land problems at this point for Mexico or the U.S. Gulf Coast.
Higher tides are likely for Texas and perhaps Louisiana, but as we explain below, they will fall well short of levels seen during Alberto earlier this season.
WYD, Rafael? (NOAA/NHC)
Hurricane Rafael doing some unique things for November
Hurricane Rafael is motoring along this morning in the Gulf of Mexico off to the west and west northwest.
Hurricane Rafael is heading west and slowly beginning to feel dry air and some wind shear.
Rafael is a category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds, down a bit from its peak on approach to Cuba yesterday. It will likely hold steady or gradually weaken in the next couple days as it tracks west.
A storm tracking west in the Gulf is not uncommon. However it is virtually unheard of in November.
November hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico.
Only Hurricane Jeanne in 1980 tracked west in the Gulf in November, and interestingly, it followed a very similar path to Rafael, just farther west of Cuba and then died off before getting to Texas or Mexico. Hurricane Juan in 1985 also had a noteworthy track in that it did several loops over the northern Gulf before eventually making a final landfall near Pensacola. But most Gulf storms in November come due north or track northeast out of Central America as weakened systems. Rafael will definitely be a historically noteworthy system.
While a handful of outlier models still linger a weak Rafael in the northern Gulf, our best guidance generally takes Rafael southward into the Bay of Campeche as a slowly weakening system, much like the NHC track at the top of this post.
Model guidance is actually in decent agreement today that Rafael will track due west and then inexplicably southwest into the Bay of Campeche. I want to tackle two questions here. First, what in the <redacted> is happening here? Second, someone asked why this storm is not as concerning as Tropical Storm Alberto, which did something kinda sorta similar back in June and caused some considerable coastal flooding on the Texas coast. The two questions are somewhat related.
So, the what is fairly simple to explain. If we look at a map of the upper air pattern, or what will steer Rafael at 48 hours when that turn to the southwest begins, we see high pressure over Florida and the Southeast pushing Rafael to the west.
The upper air map on Saturday morning shows high pressure directing Rafael off to the west.
By Monday morning, the high pressure center has moved east of Florida, but it has also kind of strung itself out more. This imparts more of a northeast to southwest type of motion on Rafael. Keep in mind that during this time, Rafael will continue to slowly weaken, so it will also become more susceptible to these steering currents as well, making it easier to sort of "bully" the system into the Bay of Campeche.
High pressure will be directing more of a northeast to southwest steering current on Sunday night and Monday which, when combined with a weakening Rafael should allow it to get shoved into the Bay of Campeche.
Is this a threat to Mexico? It seems like it won't be a real serious threat, but it at least bears some watching to make sure everything behaves as expected.
So this leads us to the second question: Why is this storm not really a major flooding concern for Texas, whereas Alberto was back in June. Here's what the upper air pattern looked like for that event.
During Alberto, high pressure to the northeast of the Gulf, combined with low pressure in the southwest Gulf led to a broad, strong pressure gradient flow across the entirety of the Gulf. That is what we call a long "fetch," meaning moisture and waves had an opportunity to pile up in the western Gulf eventually. That led to coastal flooding in Texas and Louisiana. In Rafael's case, we have the system in the southwest Gulf, but it's a bit smaller. We also lack high pressure to the north that would enhance Gulf moisture and fetch. Will tides increase on the Gulf Coast? Probably. Will they reach Alberto levels? Almost certainly not. So this is why we aren't especially concerned about coastal flooding.
Rafael will hopefully be a meaningless blurb by Monday, but we'll see. Meanwhile. another weak system has a slight chance to develop north of the islands heading into next week. At this point, we don't view that as a particularly serious concern.
Rafael moves along in the Gulf with one of the oddest November forecast tracks you’ll ever see
By Matt Lanza on November 7, 2024
Headlines
Rafael will continue west and eventually turn southwest, steered by high pressure over Florida and the northeast Gulf.
Rafael unlikely to cause serious land problems at this point for Mexico or the U.S. Gulf Coast.
Higher tides are likely for Texas and perhaps Louisiana, but as we explain below, they will fall well short of levels seen during Alberto earlier this season.
WYD, Rafael? (NOAA/NHC)
Hurricane Rafael doing some unique things for November
Hurricane Rafael is motoring along this morning in the Gulf of Mexico off to the west and west northwest.
Hurricane Rafael is heading west and slowly beginning to feel dry air and some wind shear.
Rafael is a category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds, down a bit from its peak on approach to Cuba yesterday. It will likely hold steady or gradually weaken in the next couple days as it tracks west.
A storm tracking west in the Gulf is not uncommon. However it is virtually unheard of in November.
November hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico.
Only Hurricane Jeanne in 1980 tracked west in the Gulf in November, and interestingly, it followed a very similar path to Rafael, just farther west of Cuba and then died off before getting to Texas or Mexico. Hurricane Juan in 1985 also had a noteworthy track in that it did several loops over the northern Gulf before eventually making a final landfall near Pensacola. But most Gulf storms in November come due north or track northeast out of Central America as weakened systems. Rafael will definitely be a historically noteworthy system.
While a handful of outlier models still linger a weak Rafael in the northern Gulf, our best guidance generally takes Rafael southward into the Bay of Campeche as a slowly weakening system, much like the NHC track at the top of this post.
Model guidance is actually in decent agreement today that Rafael will track due west and then inexplicably southwest into the Bay of Campeche. I want to tackle two questions here. First, what in the <redacted> is happening here? Second, someone asked why this storm is not as concerning as Tropical Storm Alberto, which did something kinda sorta similar back in June and caused some considerable coastal flooding on the Texas coast. The two questions are somewhat related.
So, the what is fairly simple to explain. If we look at a map of the upper air pattern, or what will steer Rafael at 48 hours when that turn to the southwest begins, we see high pressure over Florida and the Southeast pushing Rafael to the west.
The upper air map on Saturday morning shows high pressure directing Rafael off to the west.
By Monday morning, the high pressure center has moved east of Florida, but it has also kind of strung itself out more. This imparts more of a northeast to southwest type of motion on Rafael. Keep in mind that during this time, Rafael will continue to slowly weaken, so it will also become more susceptible to these steering currents as well, making it easier to sort of "bully" the system into the Bay of Campeche.
High pressure will be directing more of a northeast to southwest steering current on Sunday night and Monday which, when combined with a weakening Rafael should allow it to get shoved into the Bay of Campeche.
Is this a threat to Mexico? It seems like it won't be a real serious threat, but it at least bears some watching to make sure everything behaves as expected.
So this leads us to the second question: Why is this storm not really a major flooding concern for Texas, whereas Alberto was back in June. Here's what the upper air pattern looked like for that event.
During Alberto, high pressure to the northeast of the Gulf, combined with low pressure in the southwest Gulf led to a broad, strong pressure gradient flow across the entirety of the Gulf. That is what we call a long "fetch," meaning moisture and waves had an opportunity to pile up in the western Gulf eventually. That led to coastal flooding in Texas and Louisiana. In Rafael's case, we have the system in the southwest Gulf, but it's a bit smaller. We also lack high pressure to the north that would enhance Gulf moisture and fetch. Will tides increase on the Gulf Coast? Probably. Will they reach Alberto levels? Almost certainly not. So this is why we aren't especially concerned about coastal flooding.
Rafael will hopefully be a meaningless blurb by Monday, but we'll see. Meanwhile. another weak system has a slight chance to develop north of the islands heading into next week. At this point, we don't view that as a particularly serious concern.
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6016
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
000
WTNT33 KNHC 080845
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
Hurricane Rafael Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
300 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024
...RAFAEL MOVING WESTWARD IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.5N 88.0W
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM NNE OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 585 MI...940 KM E OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
Interests in the southern and southwestern Gulf of Mexico should
monitor the progress of Rafael.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rafael was located
near latitude 24.5 North, longitude 88.0 West. Rafael is moving
toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h), and a general westward to
west-northwestward motion at a slower forward speed is expected
through the weekend. On the forecast track, Rafael is expected to
move over the central Gulf of Mexico for the next few days.
Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts. Rafael is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible
today. By tonight, a steady weakening trend is forecast and should
continue through the weekend.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 956 mb (28.23 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Rafael can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header
WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml
SURF: Swells generated by Rafael are expected to spread across most
of the Gulf of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST.
$$
Forecaster Kelly
WTNT33 KNHC 080845
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
Hurricane Rafael Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
300 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024
...RAFAEL MOVING WESTWARD IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.5N 88.0W
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM NNE OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 585 MI...940 KM E OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
Interests in the southern and southwestern Gulf of Mexico should
monitor the progress of Rafael.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rafael was located
near latitude 24.5 North, longitude 88.0 West. Rafael is moving
toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h), and a general westward to
west-northwestward motion at a slower forward speed is expected
through the weekend. On the forecast track, Rafael is expected to
move over the central Gulf of Mexico for the next few days.
Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts. Rafael is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible
today. By tonight, a steady weakening trend is forecast and should
continue through the weekend.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 956 mb (28.23 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Rafael can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header
WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml
SURF: Swells generated by Rafael are expected to spread across most
of the Gulf of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST.
$$
Forecaster Kelly
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6016
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
000
WTNT43 KNHC 080846
TCDAT3
Hurricane Rafael Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
300 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024
Satellite images depict Rafael continues to produce deep convection,
with cloud tops around -80 C. However, in the last few hours, the
eye has become more cloud filled and less pronounced. Subjective
Dvorak satellite intensity estimates this cycle were T/5.5 and
T/6.0, from TAFB and SAB respectively. Objective satellite intensity
estimates from UW-CIMSS range from 100-119 kt. Using a blend of
these estimates, the initial intensity is set to 105 kt. An Air
Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the
system in a few hours.
The initial motion is 275/8 kt, and a general westward to
west-northwestward motion is expected during the next 48 h or so as
Rafael continues to be steered by a building ridge to the north.
Model guidance has come into a little better agreement this cycle,
with the latest operational ECMWF and UKMET leaning towards the GFS
solution, which shows a slow anticyclonic meandering loop over the
central Gulf of Mexico. Although there remains some ensemble
divergence, the ensemble means are in better agreement as well. As
the Rafael weakens, the low-level flow then causes the system to
move southwestward in the Gulf of Mexico through the end of the
forecast period. The NHC track was shifted towards these model
trends and lies near to the simple and corrected-consensus aids.
Rafael is currently in an area of light vertical wind shear, and
warm sea surface temperatures. Some intensity fluctuations are
possible today. By tonight, westerly shear is forecast to increase
slightly, and a drier airmass will begin to impact the system. This
should cause Rafael to steadily weaken throughout the forecast
period, and the latest NHC intensity forecast follows the latest
model weakening trends. Model simulated IR satellite depicts that
the system will struggle to produce convection by the end of the
period, and the latest NHC forecast shows the system becoming a
remnant low in 120 h. Although, some models like the GFS depict that
this could occur sooner than currently forecast.
Key Messages:
1. Swells generated by Rafael are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions along the Gulf Coast for the next
few days.
2. Rafael is forecast to move slowly over the central Gulf of
Mexico this weekend and early next week. Interests in the southern
and southwestern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of this
system.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 08/0900Z 24.5N 88.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 08/1800Z 24.6N 89.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 09/0600Z 24.8N 90.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 09/1800Z 25.2N 91.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 10/0600Z 25.5N 92.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 10/1800Z 26.0N 92.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 11/0600Z 26.3N 91.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 12/0600Z 24.5N 91.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 13/0600Z 23.0N 92.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Kelly
WTNT43 KNHC 080846
TCDAT3
Hurricane Rafael Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
300 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024
Satellite images depict Rafael continues to produce deep convection,
with cloud tops around -80 C. However, in the last few hours, the
eye has become more cloud filled and less pronounced. Subjective
Dvorak satellite intensity estimates this cycle were T/5.5 and
T/6.0, from TAFB and SAB respectively. Objective satellite intensity
estimates from UW-CIMSS range from 100-119 kt. Using a blend of
these estimates, the initial intensity is set to 105 kt. An Air
Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the
system in a few hours.
The initial motion is 275/8 kt, and a general westward to
west-northwestward motion is expected during the next 48 h or so as
Rafael continues to be steered by a building ridge to the north.
Model guidance has come into a little better agreement this cycle,
with the latest operational ECMWF and UKMET leaning towards the GFS
solution, which shows a slow anticyclonic meandering loop over the
central Gulf of Mexico. Although there remains some ensemble
divergence, the ensemble means are in better agreement as well. As
the Rafael weakens, the low-level flow then causes the system to
move southwestward in the Gulf of Mexico through the end of the
forecast period. The NHC track was shifted towards these model
trends and lies near to the simple and corrected-consensus aids.
Rafael is currently in an area of light vertical wind shear, and
warm sea surface temperatures. Some intensity fluctuations are
possible today. By tonight, westerly shear is forecast to increase
slightly, and a drier airmass will begin to impact the system. This
should cause Rafael to steadily weaken throughout the forecast
period, and the latest NHC intensity forecast follows the latest
model weakening trends. Model simulated IR satellite depicts that
the system will struggle to produce convection by the end of the
period, and the latest NHC forecast shows the system becoming a
remnant low in 120 h. Although, some models like the GFS depict that
this could occur sooner than currently forecast.
Key Messages:
1. Swells generated by Rafael are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions along the Gulf Coast for the next
few days.
2. Rafael is forecast to move slowly over the central Gulf of
Mexico this weekend and early next week. Interests in the southern
and southwestern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of this
system.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 08/0900Z 24.5N 88.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 08/1800Z 24.6N 89.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 09/0600Z 24.8N 90.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 09/1800Z 25.2N 91.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 10/0600Z 25.5N 92.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 10/1800Z 26.0N 92.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 11/0600Z 26.3N 91.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 12/0600Z 24.5N 91.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 13/0600Z 23.0N 92.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Kelly
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tireman4
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The Eyewall
Hurricane Rafael is a Gulf of Mexico wanderer
By Matt Lanza on November 8, 2024
Headlines
Hurricane Rafael briefly attained 120 mph intensity this morning, matching Hurricane Kate from 1985 as the strongest November Gulf hurricane on record.
It now appears to have stabilized and should weaken somewhat as it tracks west, then north, then probably east and south, decaying on the way.
While a track north toward the Gulf Coast cannot be entirely ruled out, even the models that do this are in good agreement on substantial weakening between now and then, and even in a worst case scenario, impacts are likely to be minor.
Regardless, rip currents, rough seas, and minor tidal flooding is possible this weekend between Texas and the Florida Panhandle.
Another system is unlikely north of the Caribbean islands, but locally heavy rainfall is possible between Puerto Rico and Cuba this weekend.
Rafael the adventurer
Hurricane Rafael is certainly a meteorological oddity given the time of year and its intensity. As a 120 mph category 3 hurricane this morning, it became the strongest November hurricane in the Gulf since 1985's Hurricane Kate, which also matches the strongest November Gulf of Mexico hurricane on record.
Hurricane Rafael is now beginning to weaken after briefly reattaining major hurricane status this morning.
Rafael is now weakening again, sort of, and it should continue to do so over the next couple days. We'll see if Rafael has one final burst available to hold or strengthen further, but given model guidance and the extremely hostile environment it's moving into now, this seems unlikely. But, for now at least, this is clearly still a fairly potent hurricane.
Rafael is still rolling along in the central Gulf of Mexico. It's less healthy looking than it was earlier today, but it remains a rather potent little storm.
Rafael is a bit diminutive, more than it appears from satellite. Tropical storm force winds only extend out about 90 miles right now, with hurricane force winds only around 30 miles from the center. That's one reason why we aren't especially concerned about significant impacts far away from the storm. Still, there are coastal flood advisories, rip current advisories, and high surf advisories posted for portions of the Gulf Coast between Florida and Texas. If you'll be spending a weekend at the beach for Veterans Day, please be careful in the water.
Rafael's track remains as bizarre as ever, with loops and southward movements all forecast. You can see how Rafael is likely to slow down, turn northward, then eastward, then southward in the coming days as it gets pushed around by high pressure and varying steering currents. This should shove Rafael into the Bay of Campeche next week, while also weakening it as it goes.
Rafael is likely to slam on the brakes, turn north, then east, then south, and meet its demise in the Bay of Campeche.
Understandably, we've been snake bitten so much on the Gulf Coast since 2017 that it's tough to just assume something isn't a threat. But in this case, there is actually strong, broad model agreement that this is indeed what will occur.
Hurricane model intensity guidance shows a collapse in Rafael's strength over the weekend. The couple outliers that remain generally aren't reliable models.
Two of the better models in the Gulf this season, the ICON and European AI model do show a track a little closer to the CMC one above, but they are firmly in line with the intensity forecast of a weakening storm. So even in a "busted" forecast where this comes farther north than anticipated, you'd still likely see a moderate to minimal tropical storm at worst with generally minor impacts. We'll keep an eye on things through the weekend to be safe.
More to come?
Another tropical system has about a 20 percent chance to develop over the next few days near or north of the Caribbean islands.
Meanwhile, another tropical system is unlikely but there will be something to at least eyeball near the Turks and Caicos and Bahamas. There is a risk of excessive rain for portions of Puerto Rico as this disturbance passes by, in addition to a risk of heavy rain in the Greater Antilles and Bahamas and Cuba in the coming days.
Excessive rain is possible later today and tonight in Puerto Rico, with an elevated risk in the eastern and northwestern portions of the island.
Beyond this, there are hints of another Caribbean system later in the month, but I would not hang my hat on that right now. We'll keep watching.
Hurricane Rafael is a Gulf of Mexico wanderer
By Matt Lanza on November 8, 2024
Headlines
Hurricane Rafael briefly attained 120 mph intensity this morning, matching Hurricane Kate from 1985 as the strongest November Gulf hurricane on record.
It now appears to have stabilized and should weaken somewhat as it tracks west, then north, then probably east and south, decaying on the way.
While a track north toward the Gulf Coast cannot be entirely ruled out, even the models that do this are in good agreement on substantial weakening between now and then, and even in a worst case scenario, impacts are likely to be minor.
Regardless, rip currents, rough seas, and minor tidal flooding is possible this weekend between Texas and the Florida Panhandle.
Another system is unlikely north of the Caribbean islands, but locally heavy rainfall is possible between Puerto Rico and Cuba this weekend.
Rafael the adventurer
Hurricane Rafael is certainly a meteorological oddity given the time of year and its intensity. As a 120 mph category 3 hurricane this morning, it became the strongest November hurricane in the Gulf since 1985's Hurricane Kate, which also matches the strongest November Gulf of Mexico hurricane on record.
Hurricane Rafael is now beginning to weaken after briefly reattaining major hurricane status this morning.
Rafael is now weakening again, sort of, and it should continue to do so over the next couple days. We'll see if Rafael has one final burst available to hold or strengthen further, but given model guidance and the extremely hostile environment it's moving into now, this seems unlikely. But, for now at least, this is clearly still a fairly potent hurricane.
Rafael is still rolling along in the central Gulf of Mexico. It's less healthy looking than it was earlier today, but it remains a rather potent little storm.
Rafael is a bit diminutive, more than it appears from satellite. Tropical storm force winds only extend out about 90 miles right now, with hurricane force winds only around 30 miles from the center. That's one reason why we aren't especially concerned about significant impacts far away from the storm. Still, there are coastal flood advisories, rip current advisories, and high surf advisories posted for portions of the Gulf Coast between Florida and Texas. If you'll be spending a weekend at the beach for Veterans Day, please be careful in the water.
Rafael's track remains as bizarre as ever, with loops and southward movements all forecast. You can see how Rafael is likely to slow down, turn northward, then eastward, then southward in the coming days as it gets pushed around by high pressure and varying steering currents. This should shove Rafael into the Bay of Campeche next week, while also weakening it as it goes.
Rafael is likely to slam on the brakes, turn north, then east, then south, and meet its demise in the Bay of Campeche.
Understandably, we've been snake bitten so much on the Gulf Coast since 2017 that it's tough to just assume something isn't a threat. But in this case, there is actually strong, broad model agreement that this is indeed what will occur.
Hurricane model intensity guidance shows a collapse in Rafael's strength over the weekend. The couple outliers that remain generally aren't reliable models.
Two of the better models in the Gulf this season, the ICON and European AI model do show a track a little closer to the CMC one above, but they are firmly in line with the intensity forecast of a weakening storm. So even in a "busted" forecast where this comes farther north than anticipated, you'd still likely see a moderate to minimal tropical storm at worst with generally minor impacts. We'll keep an eye on things through the weekend to be safe.
More to come?
Another tropical system has about a 20 percent chance to develop over the next few days near or north of the Caribbean islands.
Meanwhile, another tropical system is unlikely but there will be something to at least eyeball near the Turks and Caicos and Bahamas. There is a risk of excessive rain for portions of Puerto Rico as this disturbance passes by, in addition to a risk of heavy rain in the Greater Antilles and Bahamas and Cuba in the coming days.
Excessive rain is possible later today and tonight in Puerto Rico, with an elevated risk in the eastern and northwestern portions of the island.
Beyond this, there are hints of another Caribbean system later in the month, but I would not hang my hat on that right now. We'll keep watching.
We. Don't. Know.
Probably the FROPA will block Rafael from landfall in Texas...
Probably the FROPA will block Rafael from landfall in Texas...
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Unbelievable. GFS and Euro this morning both show a major Hurricane in the Gulf next week, making landfall on the W coast of Florida. This is insanity.
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tireman4
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With Rafael out of the picture, a new disturbance may pose a threat to the southwest Caribbean or Central America
November 11, 2024 at 7:13 am by Matt Lanza
Headlines
Rafael (mostly) did what it was supposed to do in the Gulf, although it’s unclear if there was a “winner” among the models.
A tropical wave has an increasing potential to develop in the Caribbean later this week.
This system may pose a threat to Central America either through development into a storm or through a slow-moving heavy rainmaker.
It bears close watching between the Yucatan and Nicaragua.
Rafael’s demise
Mostly as expected, Rafael succumbed to wind shear and dry air over the Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Just to tie a ribbon on this whole thing, remember, model guidance was sort of split on taking Rafael southward into the Bay of Campeche or north into Louisiana. The majority of guidance shifted toward the Bay of Campeche track late last week, and the official forecasts all generally pointed toward that happening. Interestingly, when you look at the initialization of the models since Friday, you can see the mid-level signature of Rafael kind of shear apart with some going north and some going south.
The mid-level vorticity (or “spin”) over the Gulf of Mexico associated with Rafael basically got stretched and torn apart, with some going north and some staying put or going south.
That said, there was likely some element of Rafael’s moisture that got picked up by a cold front in the Deep South this weekend. Heavy rain and flooding occurred in Louisiana, especially between Alexandria and Lake Charles, with radar estimates in excess of 12 inches since Friday morning.
Much of southwestern and central Louisiana into southwest Mississippi saw as much as 4 to 6 inches of rain with 10 to 12 inches or more between Alexandria and Lake Charles.
Heavy rainfall in excess of 4 inches also occurred in eastern Louisiana and even southwest Mississippi. All in all, it was a substantial autumn rain event, perhaps aided a little by Rafael.
Potential trouble brewing for Central America
With Rafael now just a remnant in the Gulf, our attention will focus back to the Caribbean, where we should see a tropical disturbance in about 4 or 5 days or less drifting into the western part of the Sea. The NHC assigns about 40 percent develop odds, and a slow moving system could cause some problems in Central America. Models are divergent on exactly where, what, and when. But in general, a system tracking toward Honduras or Nicaragua seems plausible. Upper level steering currents look to be generally weak. This means that whatever does or does not develop is likely to remain slowly moving in this area.
Potential trouble is brewing for Central America late this week or weekend.
This means that a couple unideal solutions are on the table right now, ranging from a potentially strengthening system to a slow-moving hefty rainmaker. Neither option usually leads to good outcomes in Central America, so unfortunately this will bear very close watching for those areas between the Yucatan and Nicaragua. For the Gulf, at least initially it appears that high pressure should exert control and effectively close off the area to anything from the Caribbean. So it is not likely to be a concern. But for folks in Central America, watch this one closely.
November 11, 2024 at 7:13 am by Matt Lanza
Headlines
Rafael (mostly) did what it was supposed to do in the Gulf, although it’s unclear if there was a “winner” among the models.
A tropical wave has an increasing potential to develop in the Caribbean later this week.
This system may pose a threat to Central America either through development into a storm or through a slow-moving heavy rainmaker.
It bears close watching between the Yucatan and Nicaragua.
Rafael’s demise
Mostly as expected, Rafael succumbed to wind shear and dry air over the Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Just to tie a ribbon on this whole thing, remember, model guidance was sort of split on taking Rafael southward into the Bay of Campeche or north into Louisiana. The majority of guidance shifted toward the Bay of Campeche track late last week, and the official forecasts all generally pointed toward that happening. Interestingly, when you look at the initialization of the models since Friday, you can see the mid-level signature of Rafael kind of shear apart with some going north and some going south.
The mid-level vorticity (or “spin”) over the Gulf of Mexico associated with Rafael basically got stretched and torn apart, with some going north and some staying put or going south.
That said, there was likely some element of Rafael’s moisture that got picked up by a cold front in the Deep South this weekend. Heavy rain and flooding occurred in Louisiana, especially between Alexandria and Lake Charles, with radar estimates in excess of 12 inches since Friday morning.
Much of southwestern and central Louisiana into southwest Mississippi saw as much as 4 to 6 inches of rain with 10 to 12 inches or more between Alexandria and Lake Charles.
Heavy rainfall in excess of 4 inches also occurred in eastern Louisiana and even southwest Mississippi. All in all, it was a substantial autumn rain event, perhaps aided a little by Rafael.
Potential trouble brewing for Central America
With Rafael now just a remnant in the Gulf, our attention will focus back to the Caribbean, where we should see a tropical disturbance in about 4 or 5 days or less drifting into the western part of the Sea. The NHC assigns about 40 percent develop odds, and a slow moving system could cause some problems in Central America. Models are divergent on exactly where, what, and when. But in general, a system tracking toward Honduras or Nicaragua seems plausible. Upper level steering currents look to be generally weak. This means that whatever does or does not develop is likely to remain slowly moving in this area.
Potential trouble is brewing for Central America late this week or weekend.
This means that a couple unideal solutions are on the table right now, ranging from a potentially strengthening system to a slow-moving hefty rainmaker. Neither option usually leads to good outcomes in Central America, so unfortunately this will bear very close watching for those areas between the Yucatan and Nicaragua. For the Gulf, at least initially it appears that high pressure should exert control and effectively close off the area to anything from the Caribbean. So it is not likely to be a concern. But for folks in Central America, watch this one closely.
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tireman4
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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 PM EST Mon Nov 11 2024
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Central and Western Caribbean Sea:
An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms to the south of
Hispaniola over the central Caribbean Sea is associated with a
tropical wave. This system is expected to move slowly westward
during the next few days, and environmental conditions appear
conducive for gradual development. A tropical depression could form
late this week or this weekend while meandering over the western
Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 PM EST Mon Nov 11 2024
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Central and Western Caribbean Sea:
An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms to the south of
Hispaniola over the central Caribbean Sea is associated with a
tropical wave. This system is expected to move slowly westward
during the next few days, and environmental conditions appear
conducive for gradual development. A tropical depression could form
late this week or this weekend while meandering over the western
Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
The storm hooks up with a FROPA. The first COLD FROPA could be around the 21st (Euro, GFS).
Welp. we finally have some legit October weather this week...expect it's November!
Northern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclone Activity for 2024 (2024/2025 for the Southern Hemisphere)
https://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/
As Of 11/11/2024
17 Named Storms
11 Hurricanes
5 Major Hurricanes
159.8 Accumulated Cyclone Energy
2024 has been quite active and devastating.
https://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/
As Of 11/11/2024
17 Named Storms
11 Hurricanes
5 Major Hurricanes
159.8 Accumulated Cyclone Energy
2024 has been quite active and devastating.
-
tireman4
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The Eyewall
Sara should soon form, a significant late season threat to Honduras in particular and something for Florida to monitor closely
By Matt Lanza on November 13, 2024
Headlines
The Caribbean tropical wave is now Invest 99L and is likely to develop into a depression or Tropical Storm Sara in the next day or two.
The system will come west and then slam on the brakes near Honduras. Much of what happens next depends on how close to the coast that stall occurs.
A stall over or near the coast would likely lead to a weaker storm that turns north and northeast next week toward the Panhandle or Big Bend of Florida.
A stall offshore of Honduras would likely lead to a stronger storm or potential major hurricane risk to the west coast of Florida next week.
Both scenarios are likely to produce significant to potential devastating rain for portions of Honduras.
Interests in Florida, the Yucatan, Belize, Honduras, and Nicaragua should monitor 99L's progress closely.
Sara likely to stir up problems
Sara (spelled without an H) is likely to develop within the next 48 hours or so from Invest 99L in the Caribbean. This morning's satellite view shows a disorganized but otherwise pretty potent little area of thunderstorms over the Caribbean. It's at least showing nascent signs of organization, but it appears relatively lopsided. In other words, if there is a center, it's on the northern edge of all the thunderstorms.
Thunderstorms associated with Invest 99L lie primarily to the south of where the center would likely form, so while robust it's still fairly disorganized.
Over the next 48 hours, models are in good agreement that this will be slow to develop initially while moving west at a pretty steady clip. Once it gets near the coast of Honduras, the steering currents will force 99L or Sara to slam on the brakes.
Sara/99L likely to be forced to slow to a crawl or stall near the northeast coast of Honduras on Friday.
This means one of two things. Either the storm will stall near land enough to not become a significant tropical system (though still a potentially major rainmaker) or the storm will stall over the Caribbean's deep, warm water and rapidly intensify. Truthfully, neither scenario is particularly great. And in fact, modeling is in decent agreement on a major rain and flooding event potentially for Honduras. Current forecasts suggest 10 to 20 inches or more (400 to 600 mm) are possible over the next 5 days for the northern third of Honduras.
A significant rain or flooding event is becoming increasingly likely in Honduras.
So, regardless of how much 99L or Sara develops through the weekend, this is going to deliver abundant rainfall to at least Honduras. Belize and Nicaragua should also monitor this closely in case things should change.
Models are in great agreement on this unfortunately with almost all the European ensemble's 51 individual members showing low pressure stuck near the coast of Honduras through 96 hours. Again, in terms of how strong this gets, where that "stuck" point happens is critical, and that's where the bulk of the uncertainty lies right now.
Among the 51 European ensemble members, there are virtually no outliers right now in terms of getting 99L or Sara stuck near Honduras late this week and weekend.
From here, almost everything will depend on where that stall occurs. At a high level, we know that Sara/99L is going to get picked up and carried north and then northeast by an autumn cold front that sweeps across the Gulf next week. So for folks in Texas and Louisiana, no worries with this. But for folks in Florida, this is very important. A storm that stalls offshore to the east and north of the Honduras coast and is allowed to intensify will likely turn north and northeast farther north and east, posing a potential major hurricane risk to the west coast of Florida. A storm that stalls near or on the coast of Honduras would not be as intense and would likely either get absorbed into the front next week or come north as a tropical storm into the Panhandle or Big Bend region of Florida. Much more manageable.
Two general scenarios exist for 99L/Sara, one which is stronger and farther south, bringing a major hurricane risk to Florida next week or a much weaker farther north one. (Weathernerds.org)
Unfortunately, it's too soon to say which scenario is more likely. The timing is a little sketchy as well, but we're probably looking at impacts to Florida, in whatever form Sara will be in around Tuesday or Wednesday next week.
Bottom line: Folks on the west coast of Florida must again remain vigilant for another storm unfortunately. Despite the calendar saying that it's mid-November, the weather pattern thinks that it's mid-October. You should also be viewing this way and start considering some preparations in Florida. If you have friends or family in Honduras, ensure that they're aware of what's coming. Central America flooding events can be utterly disastrous. This has that potential unfortunately.
Sara should soon form, a significant late season threat to Honduras in particular and something for Florida to monitor closely
By Matt Lanza on November 13, 2024
Headlines
The Caribbean tropical wave is now Invest 99L and is likely to develop into a depression or Tropical Storm Sara in the next day or two.
The system will come west and then slam on the brakes near Honduras. Much of what happens next depends on how close to the coast that stall occurs.
A stall over or near the coast would likely lead to a weaker storm that turns north and northeast next week toward the Panhandle or Big Bend of Florida.
A stall offshore of Honduras would likely lead to a stronger storm or potential major hurricane risk to the west coast of Florida next week.
Both scenarios are likely to produce significant to potential devastating rain for portions of Honduras.
Interests in Florida, the Yucatan, Belize, Honduras, and Nicaragua should monitor 99L's progress closely.
Sara likely to stir up problems
Sara (spelled without an H) is likely to develop within the next 48 hours or so from Invest 99L in the Caribbean. This morning's satellite view shows a disorganized but otherwise pretty potent little area of thunderstorms over the Caribbean. It's at least showing nascent signs of organization, but it appears relatively lopsided. In other words, if there is a center, it's on the northern edge of all the thunderstorms.
Thunderstorms associated with Invest 99L lie primarily to the south of where the center would likely form, so while robust it's still fairly disorganized.
Over the next 48 hours, models are in good agreement that this will be slow to develop initially while moving west at a pretty steady clip. Once it gets near the coast of Honduras, the steering currents will force 99L or Sara to slam on the brakes.
Sara/99L likely to be forced to slow to a crawl or stall near the northeast coast of Honduras on Friday.
This means one of two things. Either the storm will stall near land enough to not become a significant tropical system (though still a potentially major rainmaker) or the storm will stall over the Caribbean's deep, warm water and rapidly intensify. Truthfully, neither scenario is particularly great. And in fact, modeling is in decent agreement on a major rain and flooding event potentially for Honduras. Current forecasts suggest 10 to 20 inches or more (400 to 600 mm) are possible over the next 5 days for the northern third of Honduras.
A significant rain or flooding event is becoming increasingly likely in Honduras.
So, regardless of how much 99L or Sara develops through the weekend, this is going to deliver abundant rainfall to at least Honduras. Belize and Nicaragua should also monitor this closely in case things should change.
Models are in great agreement on this unfortunately with almost all the European ensemble's 51 individual members showing low pressure stuck near the coast of Honduras through 96 hours. Again, in terms of how strong this gets, where that "stuck" point happens is critical, and that's where the bulk of the uncertainty lies right now.
Among the 51 European ensemble members, there are virtually no outliers right now in terms of getting 99L or Sara stuck near Honduras late this week and weekend.
From here, almost everything will depend on where that stall occurs. At a high level, we know that Sara/99L is going to get picked up and carried north and then northeast by an autumn cold front that sweeps across the Gulf next week. So for folks in Texas and Louisiana, no worries with this. But for folks in Florida, this is very important. A storm that stalls offshore to the east and north of the Honduras coast and is allowed to intensify will likely turn north and northeast farther north and east, posing a potential major hurricane risk to the west coast of Florida. A storm that stalls near or on the coast of Honduras would not be as intense and would likely either get absorbed into the front next week or come north as a tropical storm into the Panhandle or Big Bend region of Florida. Much more manageable.
Two general scenarios exist for 99L/Sara, one which is stronger and farther south, bringing a major hurricane risk to Florida next week or a much weaker farther north one. (Weathernerds.org)
Unfortunately, it's too soon to say which scenario is more likely. The timing is a little sketchy as well, but we're probably looking at impacts to Florida, in whatever form Sara will be in around Tuesday or Wednesday next week.
Bottom line: Folks on the west coast of Florida must again remain vigilant for another storm unfortunately. Despite the calendar saying that it's mid-November, the weather pattern thinks that it's mid-October. You should also be viewing this way and start considering some preparations in Florida. If you have friends or family in Honduras, ensure that they're aware of what's coming. Central America flooding events can be utterly disastrous. This has that potential unfortunately.
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tireman4
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The Eyewall
Tropical Depression 19 will be a deeply serious flooding threat for Honduras
By Matt Lanza on November 14, 2024
Headlines
Tropical Depression 19 should become Sara later today.
Sara will be a deeply serious flooding threat to coastal Honduras.
The odds of a major hurricane, in particular a major hurricane tracking toward Florida have dropped off since yesterday.
There is still substantial uncertainty surrounding the details of Sara's development and peak intensity, but broadly a drift/stall near the coast of Honduras through the weekend, followed by a track toward Belize and the Yucatan and then a hook northeast toward Florida is favored.
Also, our parent site, Space City Weather is doing our annual fundraiser if you are interested in also directly support the work of The Eyewall!
Quick sidebar: Over at our primary site for Houston, Space City Weather, we launched our annual November fundraiser yesterday. Basically, for now, it's the one chance you have to monetarily support our work. If you don’t have extra money, please do not feel pressure to give; your using the site and spreading the word helps just as well! Ultimately, it does cost a lot to operate a website; develop, update, and support an app (something we may eventually do with The Eyewall in time); and pay for all of our other activities. So if you can help, we’d greatly appreciate it. You’re ensuring our work is freely available to all. We are grateful for any support you're willing to provide. Thank you!
On with the show...
TD 19 is going to hug the coast of Honduras over the next few days, but exactly where that stall happens is critical in determining if it becomes a hurricane or not. Either way, it's going to deliver a massive flooding threat to Honduras.
Tropical Depression 19: A major Honduras flood threat, less of a Florida hurricane threat
Invest 99L was given the potential tropical cyclone treatment yesterday. It's now officially Tropical Depression 19, and it is expected to become Sara by later today. The track of 19 is pretty straightforward -- but also immensely important and sensitive to exactly where it sets up. If we look at the forecast for hour 60, which is for Saturday morning, notice that the models are in pretty solid agreement. Each dot below shows where one of the 51 ensemble members is placing Sara's center at that time.
There is good model agreement on roughly where Sara will be over the next 3 to 4 days. But the proximity to land is going to throw an enormous wrench into determining the exact intensity. (Tomer Burg)
For Honduras, unfortunately this only means the difference between a really bad situation and a really, really bad situation. Significant flash flooding and mudslides courtesy of torrential rain will be likely heading into the next several days as 19/Sara crawls along the coast of Honduras.
Rain totals could exceed 20 inches (500 mm) in parts of coastal Honduras over the next 5 to 6 days, leading to severe flooding.
If the center of Sara stays offshore, it could become a hurricane, which would yield an even worse outcome. But even if that does not happen and Sara stays along the coast or just inland, the rain issues will be just as bad.
But that position of Sara over the next 3 or 4 days will have implications on what happens next for Belize, the Yucatan, and Florida. Sara should eventually get dislodged from its stall and start tracking toward Belize and the Yucatan by Monday. Obviously if it's still over water and a hurricane, that could produce a pretty rough impact on Belize or Mexico. If it emerges from over the physical coast of Honduras, it will be less of a threat to be a hurricane.
Models have increased agreement on land interaction with Honduras keeping the storm weaker and more over land the next 5 days, but there is still uncertainty.
If anything, trends since yesterday have drastically lowered the potential for a hurricane or major hurricane. There is simply too much land interaction with Honduras and the Yucatan or Belize. But there is a heaping amount of uncertainty still.
For Florida, this means that the threat of a significant hurricane on the west coast seems to have fallen off a good bit since yesterday. That's good. I would continue to monitor this closely, but the trends have been friendly to you. There could still be some heavy rain and strong thunderstorms as a powerful cold front sweeps across the state next Wednesday. We'll assess this in the coming days.
In the meantime, any interests in Honduras in particular, but also perhaps Belize or the Yucatan should monitor Sara closely. Even if it never becomes a hurricane, the flooding threat is dire for coastal Honduras. We'll keep following this aspect of things.
Tropical Depression 19 will be a deeply serious flooding threat for Honduras
By Matt Lanza on November 14, 2024
Headlines
Tropical Depression 19 should become Sara later today.
Sara will be a deeply serious flooding threat to coastal Honduras.
The odds of a major hurricane, in particular a major hurricane tracking toward Florida have dropped off since yesterday.
There is still substantial uncertainty surrounding the details of Sara's development and peak intensity, but broadly a drift/stall near the coast of Honduras through the weekend, followed by a track toward Belize and the Yucatan and then a hook northeast toward Florida is favored.
Also, our parent site, Space City Weather is doing our annual fundraiser if you are interested in also directly support the work of The Eyewall!
Quick sidebar: Over at our primary site for Houston, Space City Weather, we launched our annual November fundraiser yesterday. Basically, for now, it's the one chance you have to monetarily support our work. If you don’t have extra money, please do not feel pressure to give; your using the site and spreading the word helps just as well! Ultimately, it does cost a lot to operate a website; develop, update, and support an app (something we may eventually do with The Eyewall in time); and pay for all of our other activities. So if you can help, we’d greatly appreciate it. You’re ensuring our work is freely available to all. We are grateful for any support you're willing to provide. Thank you!
On with the show...
TD 19 is going to hug the coast of Honduras over the next few days, but exactly where that stall happens is critical in determining if it becomes a hurricane or not. Either way, it's going to deliver a massive flooding threat to Honduras.
Tropical Depression 19: A major Honduras flood threat, less of a Florida hurricane threat
Invest 99L was given the potential tropical cyclone treatment yesterday. It's now officially Tropical Depression 19, and it is expected to become Sara by later today. The track of 19 is pretty straightforward -- but also immensely important and sensitive to exactly where it sets up. If we look at the forecast for hour 60, which is for Saturday morning, notice that the models are in pretty solid agreement. Each dot below shows where one of the 51 ensemble members is placing Sara's center at that time.
There is good model agreement on roughly where Sara will be over the next 3 to 4 days. But the proximity to land is going to throw an enormous wrench into determining the exact intensity. (Tomer Burg)
For Honduras, unfortunately this only means the difference between a really bad situation and a really, really bad situation. Significant flash flooding and mudslides courtesy of torrential rain will be likely heading into the next several days as 19/Sara crawls along the coast of Honduras.
Rain totals could exceed 20 inches (500 mm) in parts of coastal Honduras over the next 5 to 6 days, leading to severe flooding.
If the center of Sara stays offshore, it could become a hurricane, which would yield an even worse outcome. But even if that does not happen and Sara stays along the coast or just inland, the rain issues will be just as bad.
But that position of Sara over the next 3 or 4 days will have implications on what happens next for Belize, the Yucatan, and Florida. Sara should eventually get dislodged from its stall and start tracking toward Belize and the Yucatan by Monday. Obviously if it's still over water and a hurricane, that could produce a pretty rough impact on Belize or Mexico. If it emerges from over the physical coast of Honduras, it will be less of a threat to be a hurricane.
Models have increased agreement on land interaction with Honduras keeping the storm weaker and more over land the next 5 days, but there is still uncertainty.
If anything, trends since yesterday have drastically lowered the potential for a hurricane or major hurricane. There is simply too much land interaction with Honduras and the Yucatan or Belize. But there is a heaping amount of uncertainty still.
For Florida, this means that the threat of a significant hurricane on the west coast seems to have fallen off a good bit since yesterday. That's good. I would continue to monitor this closely, but the trends have been friendly to you. There could still be some heavy rain and strong thunderstorms as a powerful cold front sweeps across the state next Wednesday. We'll assess this in the coming days.
In the meantime, any interests in Honduras in particular, but also perhaps Belize or the Yucatan should monitor Sara closely. Even if it never becomes a hurricane, the flooding threat is dire for coastal Honduras. We'll keep following this aspect of things.
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tireman4
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The Eyewall
Tropical Storm Sara near the Honduras coast, a Central America flood maker
By Matt Lanza on November 15, 2024
Headlines
Catastrophic flooding from Sara is possible in northwest Honduras.
Significant flooding and mudslide risk exists elsewhere, from the southeastern Yucatan into Belize and in portions of Nicaragua.
Sara is very close to the coast of Honduras now and should generally maintain intensity with just a little strengthening once back out over water en route to Belize Sunday.
Sara's remnants will be absorbed into a Gulf of Mexico cold front next week with no direct impacts to the U.S. expected.
Tropical Storm Sara made landfall in Honduras and will drift toward Belize this weekend.
Tropical Storm Sara dumping rainfall on Honduras
We've been discussing Sara all week, and the one element we keep trying to hammer home is the flooding threat this storm provides for Honduras in particular but now also Belize.
Catastrophic flooding is possible in northwest Honduras with severe flooding elsewhere into Belize and perhaps even the Yucatan as Sara drifts that way.
The mountainous portions of northwest Honduras are likely to see the worst of the flooding. Rain totals may exceed 20 to 25 inches in this area (500 to 600 mm). Outside of that, rain totals north of 10 inches are likely from Quintana Roo into Belize, the central coast of Honduras, and perhaps into portions of Nicaragua. These types of storms typically end poorly in these areas, so all we can do at this point is hope for the best.
In terms of the tropical element of things, the National Hurricane Center noted this morning that there is a distinct lack of observations available from Honduras, so trying to pin down the center of the storm has been challenging. But using satellite, we can see where the heaviest thunderstorms are at least.
Tropical Storm Sara is somewhere near the coast or just inland in Honduras with very heavy thunderstorms occurring in western Honduras and just off the coast of Mexico and Belize.
And indeed those heavy storms are hammering portions of western Honduras. Sara will likely hold steady or weaken just a bit depending on if it's over land or over water. All in all, we don't expect a whole lot of major change in Sara's intensity over the next couple days. Sara will have a little runway to perhaps work with on the way from Honduras into Belize as it passes over the Caribbean again. But the ceiling for intensity should remain fairly low, as it will quickly move back over land in Belize and the Yucatan. Its time over land there should essentially kill it off before it gets absorbed into a cold front over the Gulf of Mexico next week.
Beyond Central America, no direct impacts are expected in the U.S. There is some chance that as Sara is absorbed into next week's cold front it could help enhance rainfall or introduce a severe weather risk to Florida, Georgia, or the Carolinas. But that should be all.
Never say never, of course, but beyond Sara, we think that's probably it for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season. We'll have more to come on Sara this weekend.
Tropical Storm Sara near the Honduras coast, a Central America flood maker
By Matt Lanza on November 15, 2024
Headlines
Catastrophic flooding from Sara is possible in northwest Honduras.
Significant flooding and mudslide risk exists elsewhere, from the southeastern Yucatan into Belize and in portions of Nicaragua.
Sara is very close to the coast of Honduras now and should generally maintain intensity with just a little strengthening once back out over water en route to Belize Sunday.
Sara's remnants will be absorbed into a Gulf of Mexico cold front next week with no direct impacts to the U.S. expected.
Tropical Storm Sara made landfall in Honduras and will drift toward Belize this weekend.
Tropical Storm Sara dumping rainfall on Honduras
We've been discussing Sara all week, and the one element we keep trying to hammer home is the flooding threat this storm provides for Honduras in particular but now also Belize.
Catastrophic flooding is possible in northwest Honduras with severe flooding elsewhere into Belize and perhaps even the Yucatan as Sara drifts that way.
The mountainous portions of northwest Honduras are likely to see the worst of the flooding. Rain totals may exceed 20 to 25 inches in this area (500 to 600 mm). Outside of that, rain totals north of 10 inches are likely from Quintana Roo into Belize, the central coast of Honduras, and perhaps into portions of Nicaragua. These types of storms typically end poorly in these areas, so all we can do at this point is hope for the best.
In terms of the tropical element of things, the National Hurricane Center noted this morning that there is a distinct lack of observations available from Honduras, so trying to pin down the center of the storm has been challenging. But using satellite, we can see where the heaviest thunderstorms are at least.
Tropical Storm Sara is somewhere near the coast or just inland in Honduras with very heavy thunderstorms occurring in western Honduras and just off the coast of Mexico and Belize.
And indeed those heavy storms are hammering portions of western Honduras. Sara will likely hold steady or weaken just a bit depending on if it's over land or over water. All in all, we don't expect a whole lot of major change in Sara's intensity over the next couple days. Sara will have a little runway to perhaps work with on the way from Honduras into Belize as it passes over the Caribbean again. But the ceiling for intensity should remain fairly low, as it will quickly move back over land in Belize and the Yucatan. Its time over land there should essentially kill it off before it gets absorbed into a cold front over the Gulf of Mexico next week.
Beyond Central America, no direct impacts are expected in the U.S. There is some chance that as Sara is absorbed into next week's cold front it could help enhance rainfall or introduce a severe weather risk to Florida, Georgia, or the Carolinas. But that should be all.
Never say never, of course, but beyond Sara, we think that's probably it for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season. We'll have more to come on Sara this weekend.
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srainhoutx
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So long to Hurricane Season 2024! Very tough year for my home area and much of the SE and Florida!
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Hurricane Beryl also packed a punch in SE Texas.
Hurricane Beryl report from National Hurricane Center.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL022024_Beryl.pdf
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL022024_Beryl.pdf