August 2021: Major Hurricane Ida/SE Louisiana Landfall

[don]

0Z ICON into Matagorda.

[jasons2k]

00z Icon run shows a 968mb hurricane making landfall near Matagorda Bay on Tuesday 8/31 moving NNW.

[Stratton20]

Ah thanks for explaining that andrew!

[davidiowx]

Andrew would this be bad news for Texas? ( assuming that it does track toward the texas coast that is) ive never heard of anyone talk about this before

It could indicate more of the region being impacted if it did make landfall along the Texas Coast, but larger systems can also take a longer time to develop and strengthen.

Precisely. Ike was a prime example of a “Category 2” on the Saffir Simpson scale bringing a cat 4, possibly 5, storm surge. It wasn’t anything like a Harvey, Claudette or even Allison.

Alicia and Ike are two legit hurricanes that may have flooded some, they destroyed a lot with their wind and surges, especially Ike. It’s literally two complete different destructive situations.

The craziest thing is Alicia did that quickly, Harvey did too, while Ike traveled the entire length of the Atlantic before getting here with a storm surge equivalent or greater than the 1900 storm but Galveston had a sea wall when Ike arrived and thank goodness they did.

[davidiowx]

0Z ICON into Matagorda.

Geeze, no thank you to that.

[Kingwood36]

0Z ICON into Matagorda.

Geeze, no thank you to that.

Ya they can keep a cat 3 hurricane ..I'll pass

[DoctorMu]

18z HWRF, background of 95e - Moving wnw/nw off the YP and rapidly developing as it gets into the central gulf under favorable conditions.

Ruh roh.

[jasons2k]

I try to keep my emotions in check when I’m looking for clues as to where a storm is gonna go but I’m starting to get a bad feeling about this one.

[Scott747]

Northern axis is winning out on the 0z GFS.

[TXWeatherMan]

Yep, looks like it misses the tip of the Yucatan to the East.

[Scott747]

Steering still looks similar with outflow channel trying to setup to the NE

[Scott747]

Going to end up extremely strong around the golden triangle it's looking like.

[Scott747]

948 around the Tx/La border.

[Stratton20]

So a poasible track is looking like anywhere from matagorda bay to Lake Charles lol, will have to see what the CMC shows

[don]

0Z GFS into the Sabine area.Maybe trending towards the Euro.

[Andrew]

GFS went from ample amount of ridging across the SE United States this weekend to now showing a weak/mostly flat ridge. It's struggling quite a bit with the evolution of the trough across the Great Lakes/Ontario region.

[TXWeatherMan]

So a poasible track is looking like anywhere from matagorda bay to Lake Charles lol, will have to see what the CMC shows

Still way too soon to say that

[Stratton20]

TXWeatherMan oh I know Im just making my best estimation

[Scott747]

Ridging tries to rebuild quickly with that 2nd system I've been mentioning in the long range trying to develop in the Western Caribbean

[don]

0Z CMC also trended east into SW Louisiana.