June 2021:

[DoctorMu]

We had about 2 inches here last night. Mega wind and lightning show.

[Cromagnum]

Pretty good blob out by Brownsville.

[Kingwood36]

12Z GFS developes something and sends something toward the Corpus Christi area on July 4th..still a long ways out tho

[Stratton20]

We better not have any tropical mischief to deal with on the 4th, hopefully mother nature doesn’t throw us a curveball

[DoctorMu]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1239 PM CDT Wed Jun 23 2021

.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...

VFR conditions with moderate southeasterly to southerly flow will
continue through the rest of today. Isolated, slow moving
thunderstorms have popped up near IAH in the last couple of hours
bringing variable, gusty winds. These storms will move northwards
towards CXO in the next couple of hours before dissipating later
this afternoon. Additional showers and thunderstorms will be
possible across IAH southward due to activity along the sea breeze
later today. MVFR conditions with CIGs of 1500 to 2500 will be
possible tonight north of SGR/HOU, but these conditions should
improve through tomorrow morning. Some additional scattered
showers and thunderstorms will be be possible tomorrow afternoon.

Fowler

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 645 AM CDT Wed Jun 23 2021/...

.SHORT TERM [Today through Thursday Night]...

Early morning radar has been showing west to northwest moving showers
and thunderstorms just south of our area. This location corresponds
well with the higher precipitable water values (> 2 inches), and most
models bring this higher moisture axis northward into our area during
the day today leading to our shower and thunderstorm chances as day-
time heating sets in. However, slightly building heights from Texas
ridging has a chance to bring us less coverage that we have seen over
the past couple of days. Brief locally heavy rainfall cannot be ruled
with any slow moving activity or where any boundary collisions occur.
Temperatures outside of the rain areas should have no problem rising
into the low to mid 90s. With heat index values at or above 105, all
heat safety precautions should be taken. Any storms that do develop
today will weaken/dissipate in the early evening hours, and expect
overnight lows in the mid to upper 70s inland and in the lower 80s at
the coast. Tomorrow is expected to be even drier as area precipitable
water values fall below 2 inches, and again high temperatures will be
in the low to mid 90s with heat index values >105 (a very important
repeat on the heat safety precautions!). Wish I could say some relief
will be coming with the overnight low temperatures, but the tomorrow
night-Thursday morning readings will likely end up once again in the
mid to upper 70s inland and in the lower 80s at the coast.

42

.LONG TERM [Friday through Wednesday]...

Hot and muggy conditions for the end of the work week; Maximum
temperatures will be in the mid to upper 90s and heat indices
climb to 103-110 deg F. Weak mid to upper level ridging will
remain across the local area Friday, but sufficient low level
moisture along with convective temperatures just below the
maximum temperatures should be enough to generate some afternoon
showers and thunderstorms, in particular along the seabreeze and
baybreeze outflows.

Rain chances will be on the rise this weekend and continue through
the second half of the upcoming week. For starters, ridging will
be retreating west on Saturday as a broad upper low over the
northeastern Gulf moves towards the western Gulf. Meanwhile, an
upper level trough will move east into the northern and central
Plains as an upper ridge amplifies over NE CONUS. Sunday into
Monday, a series of shortwaves developing over the Rockies will
round the base of the trough and deepen it southward into the
Southern Plains. Monday into mid week, the trough will be fixed
between the upper ridge over NW CONUS and another ridge over E
CONUS, restricting its eastward progression and maintaining
weakness aloft over TX. In the low levels, ongoing southerly flow
will allow for pulses of moisture carrying PWs of a little over
2.0 inches Monday through mid week. With several more shortwaves
rounding the base of the trough invigorating showers and
thunderstorms over the local area, this increase of moisture
could result in periods of heavy rainfall. A cold front appears to
move into Southeast TX sometime Wednesday, though this solution
can change considering we are at the end of the forecast period.

The good news is with increased rainfall activity, a decrease in
high temperatures can be expected. High temperatures Sunday into
mid week look to remain in the low 90s, while lows stay in the
70s inland and in the low 80s along the coast.

24

.MARINE...

South to southeast winds and seas of 2 to 4 feet expected for the
next several days. A bit of a diurnal pattern will develop through
the end of the forecast period, with winds increasing during the
nighttime hours. This could allow for winds/seas to reach Caution
levels for a few hours each night. Rain chances increase this
weekend into early next week as a series of upper level
shortwaves move across the Central and Southern Plains.

24


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 77 94 77 95 77 / 10 10 0 10 0
Houston (IAH) 78 94 78 96 78 / 20 20 0 20 10
Galveston (GLS) 83 91 83 92 82 / 20 20 0 20 10

[jasons2k]

Teased again. Lots of overhead thunder.

.01”

[DoctorMu]

110°F heat index outside. The sidewalk is the stovetop for cooking.

The sea breeze is north and east of us.

[Stratton20]

Sheriffs and Lifeguards really know how to ruin a beach experience

[DoctorMu]

Sheriffs and Lifeguards really know how to ruin a beach experience

I thought it would have been the 5.3 inches of rain Panama City has had over the last 3 days.

https://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KPAM.html

[Stratton20]

DoctorMu na I got yelled at to get out of the water because of strong rip currents, but I was standing in a very shallow sandbar maybe ankle inches deep like bruh

[Cpv17]

The 6z GFS is slightly wet:

[Cromagnum]

Is the GFS banking on a tropical system setting up shop? No way do I believe two feet of rain without one.

[Stratton20]

The GFS is clearly drunk lol

[DoctorMu]

Seabreeze is kicking in this morning. Popcorn showers may drift through your neighborhood.

[Cpv17]

Is the GFS banking on a tropical system setting up shop? No way do I believe two feet of rain without one.

Ehhh not really but it has a ton of tropical moisture.

[DoctorMu]

Death Ridge does not take hold and retreats beginning this weekend

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
626 AM CDT Thu Jun 24 2021

.AVIATION...

Morning SHRA near/along the coast will work their way inland this
morning with isolated to widely scattered inland SHRA/TSRA
development expected as the day progresses. Brief MVFR ceilings
early this morning will become VFR, and expect VFR conditions
this afternoon except in/around any SHRA/TSRA activity. Quiet
this evening with possibility of some MVFR ceiling development
overnight mainly well inland. Also expecting to see late night
through early morning SHRA activity again near the coast and
offshore that will again work their way inland tomorrow morning. 42

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT Thu Jun 24 2021/

SHORT TERM [Today Through Friday Night]...

Overnight temperatures so far (through 3 am) range from the mid to
upper 70s well inland to the low to mid 80s near and at the coast.
Skies are generally partly cloudy, and there are some spotty showers
with the greatest concentration so far off the coast. With the upper
level high pressure ridge remaining in control through the short
term, expect to see late night through early morning showers mainly
near the coast and offshore. Daytime hours will have some of these
showers moving inland, and anticipate seeing mainly late morning
through early evening isolated to widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms. High temperatures each day will be mainly in the low
to mid 90s inland and near 90 at the coast. Heat index values could
end up flirting with advisory level readings each day, and if values
equal to or greater than 108 become widespread, a Heat Advisory will
be needed. Little temperature relief can be expected overnight as
onshore winds persist and help to keep lows ranging mainly from the
mid to upper 70s well inland to the lower 80s near and at the coast.

Remember to use safe heat practices even if there is no Heat Advisory
in effect. Stay hydrated, take plenty of breaks if outside and to not
leave people or pets in vehicles with the air conditioning off.

42

LONG TERM [Saturday through Thursday]...

A wet weather pattern will begin this upcoming weekend and is
expected to persist through the end of the forecast period.

The upper level ridge positioned over Texas will begin to retreat
west in response to an inverted upper level trough moving
westward from the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. This will allow
for a little more coverage in showers and thunderstorms Saturday.
Sunday into Monday, the inverted trough from the NE Gulf will
position itself over NW Gulf. Meanwhile, an upper level trough
over the Rockies will move into the northern and central Plains as
an upper ridge amplifies over NW CONUS. This trough will then
deepen southward into the Four Corners as a series of shortwaves
round the base, resulting in stronger weakness aloft for SE Texas,
and thus, invigorating shower and thunderstorm activity. The
trough will remain fixed between the upper ridge over NW CONUS and
another ridge over E CONUS for the next several days, restricting
its eastward progression and maintaining upper level weakness
over TX. Therefore, good rain chances can be expected over the
local area through at least next Thursday. In addition, southerly
winds will allow for several waves of higher moisture to move
across SE Texas from the Gulf during the next several days,
increasing PWs to a little over 2.0 inches at times and could
result in periods of heavy rainfall. This will increase the
potential for flooding over areas receiving healthy amounts of
rain once soils saturate.

With ongoing rainfall activity, expect high temperatures in the
low 90s Sunday into mid week, while increased cloud coverage
maintain low temperatures in the 70s inland and in the low 80s
along the coasts.

24

MARINE...

Light to moderate onshore winds will prevail for the next several
days with a diurnal wind pattern setting up across the Gulf
waters, resulting in winds briefly reaching Caution levels for a
few hours each night. Seas will remain 4 feet or less. Increased
rain chances expected Sunday into the upcoming week as higher
moisture moves across the waters and upper level weakness
returns.

24

[don]

Starting this weekend locally heavy rainfall may be a threat pretty much everyday next week.Localized flooding may start to become more of an issue next week as the soil saturates and preciptable waters increase.


LONG TERM [Saturday through Thursday]...

A wet weather pattern will begin this upcoming weekend and is
expected to persist through the end of the forecast period.

The upper level ridge positioned over Texas will begin to retreat
west in response to an inverted upper level trough moving
westward from the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. This will allow
for a little more coverage in showers and thunderstorms Saturday.
Sunday into Monday, the inverted trough from the NE Gulf will
position itself over NW Gulf. Meanwhile, an upper level trough
over the Rockies will move into the northern and central Plains as
an upper ridge amplifies over NW CONUS. This trough will then
deepen southward into the Four Corners as a series of shortwaves
round the base, resulting in stronger weakness aloft for SE Texas,
and thus, invigorating shower and thunderstorm activity. The
trough will remain fixed between the upper ridge over NW CONUS and
another ridge over E CONUS for the next several days, restricting
its eastward progression and maintaining upper level weakness
over TX. Therefore, good rain chances can be expected over the
local area through at least next Thursday. In addition, southerly
winds will allow for several waves of higher moisture to move
across SE Texas from the Gulf during the next several days,
increasing PWs to a little over 2.0 inches at times and could
result in periods of heavy rainfall. This will increase the
potential for flooding over areas receiving healthy amounts of
rain once soils saturate.

[Stratton20]

The 18z GFS is definitely drunk big time , over the course of the next 14 days it has a 32 inch bullseye right over SE Lousiana, not believable just interesting though

[Cpv17]

The 18z GFS is definitely drunk big time , over the course of the next 14 days it has a 32 inch bullseye right over SE Lousiana, not believable just interesting though

You mean SW?

[Stratton20]

Cpv17
I meant SW lol