February 2021: Arctic Outbreak/Warmup Begins

[Cpv17]

Don't be surprised if all this talk of frozen precip. fades away from today on. The NWS has dropped any mention of it from my forecast as of this writing. I do not want an ice storm anyway, but some snow would have been nice. We will literally just have to wait and nowcast, folks, then be prepared for the usual disappointment.

We're going to be below freezing from Sunday afternoon to Wednesday late morning. Damn sure hope we don't see a lot of ice.

Actually it could be worse than that. Your area could be below freezing by tomorrow night and stay below through next Thursday or next Friday. I suspect BCS will be below freezing for a very long period. I mean heck, y’all were already at the freezing mark earlier this morning.

[DoctorMu]

Don't be surprised if all this talk of frozen precip. fades away from today on. The NWS has dropped any mention of it from my forecast as of this writing. I do not want an ice storm anyway, but some snow would have been nice. We will literally just have to wait and nowcast, folks, then be prepared for the usual disappointment.

We're going to be below freezing from Sunday afternoon to Wednesday late morning. Damn sure hope we don't see a lot of ice.

Actually it could be worse than that. Your area could be below freezing by tomorrow night and stay below through next Thursday or next Friday. I suspect BCS will be below freezing for a very long period. I mean heck, y’all were already at the freezing mark earlier this morning.

Yeah, we're going to bring in plants in soon. I have to hop over to Home Depot and Lowes for pipe insulation, then stock up with groceries.

Ice would bring into play power outages...when there's a low of 8° forecast...and the cold has overperformed for days.

[cperk]

Mine is the ambient weather station.

I’ve heard good things, may consider for my next one. I have an Acurite-Pro and it does a decent job except it cycles through the batteries - I think the solar panels are toast.

Mine seems to be spot-on with temps. I have a couple of calibrated mercury thermometers that I compare it against. The only issue, really, is getting accurate wind measurements. Even if I placed an anemometer on the roof I have solid trees all around me. And sometimes I have to double-check the rain totals too...

I still can’t believe that accident in Fort Worth. I can’t imagine being trapped in the middle of that.

I’ve had mine 2 years and love it

I’ve had a Davis Vantage Vue for about 6 years and I love it.

[Kingwood36]

Well, not even a month into office and Biden already fixed global warming. Lol

Maybe hell is freezing over

This is just a joke and not in anyway a political post!!

[Kingwood36]

Suppose to have a high of 50 here...dosent look like it's happening

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Would like for that snow line to stop dry humping 59 and blow on to the coast. It would make me feel better about power outages

[Kingwood36]

Would like for that snow line to stop dry humping 59 and blow on to the coast. It would make me feel better about power outages

You aint lying..im 23 miles from the coast..I want snow not freezing rain

[Kingwood36]

12z EPS

[Texaspirate11]

FROM OUR HGX DISCO
THURSDAY FRIDAY
KINDA FUNNY

Have also added some sleet to the areas a little farther south but
just enough to be social media worthy with no impacts.
45

[Kingwood36]

FROM OUR HGX DISCO
THURSDAY FRIDAY
KINDA FUNNY

Have also added some sleet to the areas a little farther south but
just enough to be social media worthy with no impacts.
45

Where can I read the disco at

[txsnowmaker]

Snow back in the NWS forecast for SW Houston.

https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.p ... CWS_mROLDs

[srainhoutx]

FROM OUR HGX DISCO
THURSDAY FRIDAY
KINDA FUNNY

Have also added some sleet to the areas a little farther south but
just enough to be social media worthy with no impacts.
45

Where can I read the disco at

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1149 AM CST Thu Feb 11 2021

.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...

A cold font in the coastal waters and short wave trof over the
flying areas will keep conditions in IFR to LIFR. As the SWT moves
over the area, improvements to visibility will be expected, but
ceilings will not bring too much relief. Though not in the TAF, some
winter mix is possible in the extreme northern TAF sites, mainly
CLL. Sadly, conditions are not looking favorable until early next
week, when high pressure finally builds into the flying areas. 35

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 1023 AM CST Thu Feb 11 2021/...



.SHORT TERM [Today Through Friday Afternoon]...
Cold front has pushed out into the far coastal waters. Short wave
and RR quad of the upper jet helping the development of elevated
showers and thunderstorms today. The shortwave should move through
the region this afternoon and end the threat of thunderstorms
from west by late afternoon but could linger on over the coastal
waters.

Temperatures though are the fly in the ointment currently a thin
slice of temperatures 31-33 degrees over the
Caldwell/Bryan/Madisonville area and so have added a Winter
Weather Advisory for these areas through 7 pm. The main threat
looks to be some patchy light rain/sleet there with impacts
limited to elevated roads. Temperatures in the advisory area
should fluctuate between 31-34 throughout the afternoon as the
precipitation moves through the area. Greatest thunderstorm threat
this afternoon should be over the western half of the area
shifting southeast and northeast.


Have also added some sleet to the areas a little farther south but
just enough to be social media worthy with no impacts.
45

[cperk]

NWS in your area click on your county and scroll to the bottom of the page you will see the discussion.

[Andrew]

Looks like the ECMWF has fully caved to the solution the GFS was presenting earlier this week. Ironically, now the GFS has trended a little warmer over the last couple of runs, but I suspect it will trend back to the "colder" solution as we get closer. It is looking more and more likely that most of the region could see a 48-72 hour freeze depending on how much snowfall/cloud cover occurs. Just as a general timeline, most of the region will stay locked in the 40s & 30s for the next couple of days with the chance for sleet and freezing rain on Saturday night north of HWY 105.

Starting Sunday night much colder air starts filtering south and most of the region could go below freezing Monday morning as a shortwave trough approaches from the west. The forecast gets tricky here but it's looking more and more likely we will see a major winter storm over most of Texas with freezing rain, sleet, and snow all being a possibility for SE Texas. The warm nose that is present Monday morning will slowly cool as we head into the mid-morning and early afternoon creating a borderline favorable environment for snow. I do suspect we will see snow across the Houston Metro region towards the end of the event (Monday afternoon).

Monday night dry air will quickly sink south and skies begin to clear some. A lot of the models are now picking up on radiational cooling occurring Monday night with temperatures plummeting into the teens. I think we will see just enough cloud cover and winds to prevent the floor from completely dropping, but I would not be surprised if we flirt with the single digits. Still, I think 12-20F is pretty reasonable across most of Houston.

Tuesday into Wednesday models still differ on if we start to see a tiny bit of return flow (and how much sunshine occurs) which could increase temperatures into the upper 30s and 40s but I think it's too soon to speculate. At this point, I think it's best to prepare for a freeze beginning Sunday night and not ending until Wednesday or Thursday. We are probably looking at a weather event we have not seen in 30-40 years with the possibility of breaking several temperature records. If you have not already made the necessary preparations the time is now. Bring on summer!


GFS

download (6).png

ECMWF

download (7).png

[DoctorMu]

Our NWS forecast now includes some kind of frozen precip every day through Monday, then Wednesday.

The Freezing line right now is Austin through Caldwell and the nothern Brazos County line.

[txbear]

That's a decent cluster of storms out towards the SW. Solid amount of lift out there for sure. Would be all too good to get thundersleet/snow.

[Cromagnum]

That's a decent cluster of storms out towards the SW. Solid amount of lift out there for sure. Would be all too good to get thundersleet/snow.

Maybe in the NW viewing area. We aren't cold enough south of I-10 yet.

[Snakeswx]

Can anyone confirm light snow in conroe right now.. the airport is reporting snow on NWS weather.gov

[TXWeatherMan]

Can anyone confirm light snow in conroe right now.. the airport is reporting snow on NWS weather.gov

I’m near lake Conroe and just rain here

[srainhoutx]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
320 PM CST Thu Feb 11 2021

...MAJOR WINTER IMPACTS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS WEEK...

...Sunday night plan on staying where you are with travel being
impacted to severe impacted through Tuesday morning...


.SHORT TERM [Tonight through Friday Afternoon]...
Winter weather advisory for the northwesternmost counties extended
until 10 pm.

Cold front has pushed out well south of the coastal waters and
winds have come up a few knots moreso with gusts - 15 to 20 mph
sustained with wind chills of 29 to 37 were commonplace at 2 pm.

Short wave moving through the Hill Country is producing more
widespread wintery precipitation over the Hill Country and the
eastern edge will impinge on SETX late this afternoon and tonight
as the s/w shifts eastward. More widespread liquid rainfall is
expected across SETX late this afternoon and tonight spreading
east then southeast tonight and tapering off from the northwest.
Areas across Madisonville to Caldwell will continue to have patchy
freezing light drizzle/freezing rain/sleet/rain into mid evening
before it tapers off. The advisory is set to expire at 10 pm but
temperatures at 10 pm may hold at 30-33 degrees there which would
indicate that any icy roads may not improve even though the
precipitation (and Advisory) have ended. Low temperatures
overnight will be a slow slide down to 30-37 north of I-10 and
38-42 south of I-10.

Friday morning the rain should be confined to mainly the 59
corridor southeastward with scattered/numerous showers and
isolated thunderstorms possible well offshore near the 850 front.
But inland in the afternoon it should be just chilly with some
patchy light rain in the upper 30s/lower 40s.

45

.LONG TERM [Friday Night Through Thursday]...


*** OVERVIEW ***

* Surge of Arctic air arrives on Saturday with temperatures
approaching freezing across most of the area by Sunday night.

* First of two disturbances arrives on Saturday, bringing mostly
rain with higher chances of mixed precip north of I-10.

* Second system arrives late Sunday into early Monday. With
colder temperatures in place, widespread wintry precipitation could
impact most of the area during this time.

* Behind the second system, prolonged stretch of below freezing
and potentially historically low temperatures will last well into
next week. Another round of precipitation may arrive by mid-week.

A highly impactful and potentially historic period of prolonged cold
temperatures with multiple episodes of winter precipitation is
expected to impact SE Texas over the next week. With persistent deep
surface high pressure in place over the central CONUS, arctic air
will continue to push into the area as we head into the weekend. By
Saturday, high temperatures are unlikely to break out of the mid-40s
with lows approaching freezing north of the Houston metro. Our first
shot at winter precipitation will arrive on Saturday evening as an
upper shortwave trough pushes through the area. Precipitation type
will be highly dependent on the timing of this feature, though a
period of freezing drizzle/mixed-phase precipitation may occur north
of the Houston metro but elsewhere to the south model soundings
continue to favor a cold rain.

Our main area of focus continues to be the arrival of a second, more
amplified shortwave on late Sunday into early Monday. As this
feature pushes towards SE TX and develops a slight negative tilt,
GFS/EC solutions indicate the formation of an associated coastal low
over the western Gulf of Mexico. PWs will remain in the vicinity of
1-1.25 in as this feature continues to develop, and model soundings
remain well-saturated. With lows on Sunday evening expected to dip
into the 20s to low 30s across the overwhelming majority of the
area, an impactful winter precipitation event is anticipated. While
precipitation type will remain highly dependent on the timing of
this system`s arrival and the exact vertical temperature profiles
present across the area (i.e. the presence and extent of an elevated
warm layer), we are becoming increasingly confident in a widespread
mixed-phase event beginning Sunday night and persisting into Monday.
Global deterministic solutions continue to indicate the possibility
of snow, sleet, and freezing rain impacting portions of the area
during this time. This will make for a particularly hazardous
commute on Monday, particularly for those who travel on elevated
roadways or bridges. Surface streets may become involved as well
given these persistent cold temperatures. Travelers are urged to
pay close attention to the latest forecast as this situation
develops. Over the next few days, timing, amounts, and types of
precipitation will become more refined as higher- resolution
guidance becomes evaluable.

Upon the exit of the second system and subsequent clearing, SE TX
looks to experience its coldest night in many years on Monday
evening. Low temperatures across the Brazos Valley and other
northern zones remain progged to drop into the single digits, while
the Houston metro is expected to reach the low to mid 10s. Along the
barrier islands and coast, temperatures will still remain well below
freezing. Daily records are likely in play for several days at each
of our climate sites. These conditions will be extremely hazardous
to the "4 Ps" - people, pets, plants, and pipes. Consider the
actions you will need to take to ensure the protection of each of
these things. Risk may be further compounded by the possibility of
power outages given the expected winter precipitation earlier in
the day and increased energy demand for the heating of buildings.

Freezing temperatures are expected to last well into the upcoming
week, with lows remaining in the 20s for at least parts of the area
through next Thursday. Another episode of winter precipitation is
possible on Wednesday/early Thursday as a third upper trough pushes
through the area, though the timing of this system and temperature
profile across the area remains highly uncertain across model
solutions.

Now is the perfect time to prepare for this period of hazardous
weather. Be sure to have multiple ways to receive weather
information and continue to monitor the forecast, particularly if
you must travel this weekend and early next week.

Cady