Wx Infinity Forums

Ptarmigan wrote:The models are still split. I notice one has Alex making landfall on Texas/Louisiana border.

That is the 'Clipper' model doing that. It only looks at historical tracks comparing it to the current storm.

Where Alex is over, the Gulf of Mexico is warm.


However, the depth is not as great as compared to the Caribbean. If Alex lingers longer, it will upwell cooler water, which will help weaken Alex.

Yeah Ptarmigan and I saw on another forum how Alex will be moving soon over the warmest waters in the Gulf of Mexico ... just in time for his strengthening mode.

Somebody needs to tell these models to stop drinking, there all over the place. Its only a matter of time before they get the keys to the car and slam it into the side of Texas!

Portastorm wrote:Yeah Ptarmigan and I saw on another forum how Alex will be moving soon over the warmest waters in the Gulf of Mexico ... just in time for his strengthening mode.

This is probably a better representation of OHC and one I think the NHC refers to when they mention a particular storm hitting a specific eddy or area. No doubt the Gulf is plenty supportive of a significant system but it isn't quite at the level some make it out to be.

The map has matched up quite nicely for the last few years in the EPAC when Rick, Jimena and Ceila went bonkers.

Good stuff! Thanks for that Scott. Well, the eddy doesn't very large but probably large enough to give Alex a little extra "oompf." It is amazing just how many factors tropical meteorologists must consider.

Hardcore- How do they put an ensamble like that together if not all of the 00z models have come out?

Portastorm wrote:Good stuff! Thanks for that Scott. Well, the eddy doesn't very large but probably large enough to give Alex a little extra "oompf." It is amazing just how many factors tropical meteorologists must consider.

Well as you know it's more about the upper air environment that ends up being more critical to a developing system. I must admit that I get frustrated with the constant posting of TCHP content across the basin that tends to come across as being overly scary.

No question it is a important factor and can be that extra octane that will help in a RI cycle but I'm much more interested on what's going on above the storm as opposed to underneath it.

weatherguy425 wrote:Hardcore- How do they put an ensamble like that together if not all of the 00z models have come out?

That's the '0z' package based on 18z model runs.

000
WTNT31 KNHC 290242
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALEX ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
1000 PM CDT MON JUN 28 2010

...ALEX GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.0N 91.6W
ABOUT 440 MI...710 KM ESE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 505 MI...810 KM SE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 0 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES

10:00 PM CDT Mon Jun 28
Location: 21.0°N 91.6°W
Max sustained: 65 mph
Moving: N at 5 mph
Min pressure: 985 mb

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph...100
km/hr...with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is
forecast...and Alex is likely to become a hurricane on Tuesday.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles...110 km
from the center.

The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve
hurricane hunter aircraft is 985 mb...29.09 inches

Waiting on the Discussion.

Reports are coming in that the cone moved east.

Andrew wrote:Reports are coming in that the cone moved east.

N a bit up the coast...

INITIAL 29/0300Z 21.0N 91.6W 55 KT
12HR VT 29/1200Z 22.2N 92.3W 65 KT
24HR VT 30/0000Z 23.6N 93.5W 70 KT
36HR VT 30/1200Z 24.5N 95.2W 75 KT
48HR VT 01/0000Z 25.2N 96.9W 80 KT
72HR VT 02/0000Z 25.7N 99.6W 45 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 03/0000Z 27.0N 102.0W 20 KT...INLAND

Folks, it would be wise to shift your attention north of Mexico, maybe even
north of Brownsville. I would not be surprised if tomorrow we focus more on areas from Corpus to NOLA. If the ridge builds back in, look out middle Texas areas.

Scott747 wrote:

Andrew wrote:Reports are coming in that the cone moved east.

N a bit up the coast...

Haha more or less what I meant. What I still don't understand is why Mexico has a hurricane warning so far south. I wonder if they believe it will go farther south then NHC believes.

It's because the thinking among many pros is that Mexico is the target. Some get hung up on models and can't see what is right in front of their eyes..


If I'm being honest. No offense to anyone.