January: Increasing Clouds/Rain & Warmer To End Month

[srainhoutx]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
407 AM CST SUN JAN 22 2012

.DISCUSSION...
DENSE SEA FOG HAS BEGUN TO MOVE INLAND WITH VISIBILITIES AROUND A
HALF MILE AT GLS...LBX AND LVJ. WILL MAINTAIN THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY THROUGH 9 AM FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES. ONSHORE WINDS HAVE
RETURNED TO THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. CONSIDERABLY WARMER TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TODAY ON BREEZY SW-S WINDS. A FEW WARM AIR ADVECTION
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING BENEATH A FAIRLY STRONG CAP. THE
SHOWERS WILL BE WEAK AND FAST MOVING AND THE 20 POPS ALREADY IN
PLACE SEEM MORE THAN GENEROUS TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL. STRONG
MIXING THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME PARTIAL CLEARING OVER
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE REGION. WILL AGAIN MENTION DENSE SEA FOG
FOR TONIGHT AROUND THE GALVESTON BAY AREA UNTIL THE FRONT SCOURS
THINGS OUT AROUND 09Z.

HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE SLOWER NAM12 WITH REGARD TO TONIGHTS
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE REGION BETWEEN
07Z - 11Z. THE AREA IS CAPPED SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION. MONDAY WILL START OUT MOSTLY CLEAR WITH CIRRUS
MOVING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO TEXAS ON TUESDAY.
MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE AGGRESSIVE WITH PW VALUES APPROACHING 1.4
INCHES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS A STRONG VORT LOBE CROSSES SE TX. RAIN CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER SOUTH TEXAS AND TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA. THE LOW PRESSURE AREA BECOMES ELONGATED ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS AND BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD
BEGIN TO DECREASE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE TROUGH PUSHES
EAST. STRONG INFLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE SFC TROUGH WILL BRING
1.7 INCH PW AIR INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 40 KNOTS BY WEDS MORNING. UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW. THE COMBINATION OF VERY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT...THE SLOW
MOVEMENT AND STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE SHOULD RESULT IN VERY HIGH
RAIN CHANCES AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THE GFS QPF OUTPUT SHOWS 3
TO 5 INCH RAINFALL POTENTIAL TUES NITE INTO WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION
TO THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT...HELICITY VALUES APPROACH 225 WITH LI`S
AROUND -3. CAPE VALUES ARE RELATIVELY MODEST BUT SINCE MOST OF SE
TX WILL LIE IN THE WARM SECTOR...A FEW WEAK SHORT LIVED TORNADOES
WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE ECMWF IS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR ALBEIT ABOUT 6-12
HOURS FASTER. THE CANADIAN CONTINUES TO HOLD THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY TO THE SOUTHWEST AND IS NOW AN OUTLIER. THE UKMET AND NAM
TEND TO SUPPORT THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND DEEPER GFS. CLOUDY SKIES
WILL LINGER THURS/FRI BEFORE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING ON SAT. MODELS
DIVERGE AGAIN BY NEXT SUNDAY WITH THE ECMWF DIGGING ANOTHER TROUGH
INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND THE GFS SHOWING A W-NW UPPER FLOW.
COMPROMISED BETWEEN THE TWO WITH A SLIGHT NOD TOWARD THE ECMWF.

[srainhoutx]

HPC Morning Update:

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
859 AM EST SUN JAN 22 2012

VALID 12Z THU JAN 26 2012 - 12Z SUN JAN 29 2012

INCREASED RIDGING OVER THE ERN PACIFIC THIS WEEK SHOULD ALLOW FOR
MEAN TROUGHING TO STICK AROUND OVER THE PLAINS/MIDWEST UNDER A
PORTION OF THE POLAR VORTEX DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL CANADA NEXT
WEEKEND. GUIDANCE AGREES ON THIS IDEA...BUT THERE ARE A COUPLE
LARGE ISSUES.

THE 00Z GFS/00Z GEFS MEAN MORE AGGRESSIVELY KNOCK DOWN THE TOP OF
THE RIDGE OVER THE WRN SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC BY FRI THAN OTHER
GUIDANCE..WHICH ALLOWS A QUICKER FRONTAL PROGRESSION IN THE EAST.
THE LONGWAVE TROF OVER MID-CONTINENT FAVORS GRADUAL WRN ATLANTIC
RIDGE WEAKENING. THE OTHER BIG ISSUE IS HOW TO HANDLE THE
SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW NEAR TEXAS WED. 00Z ECMWF/ECMWF
ENSEMBLES ARE NOW THE QUICKEST OF THE GUIDANCE WHILE THE 00Z GEFS
MEAN/NOGAPS ARE THE SLOWEST. FORECAST SPREAD WITH THIS SYSTEM IS
SIGNIFICANT...WITH SOLUTIONS RANGING BETWEEN NRN MEXICO AND THE
EAST COAST BY FRIDAY DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF NRN STREAM
INTERACTION. THE 00Z GFS/UKMET AND TO A SLIGHTLY LESSER DEGREE
THE 00Z CANADIAN AND 06Z GFS/DGEX ARE ON THE SLOW SIDE OF THE
SOLUTION ENVELOPE...BUT NOT AS SLOW AS THE MOST EXTREME CUTOFF
SOLUTIONS. CLOSED LOWS IN A SEPARATED SRN STREAM TEND TO REMAIN
ON THE SLOW SIDE SO WILL DISCOUNT THE 00Z ECMWF THAT ALSO OFFERS
POOR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. UNCERTAINTY THOUGH PROBABLY MAKES IT
PRUDENT TO NOT GO WITH THE SLOWEST GEFS ENSEMBLES/NOGAPS.

ACCORDINGLY...UPDATED HPC PRELIM PROGS HAVE BEEN PRIMARILY DERIVED
FROM A 50-50 BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS/UKMET DAYS 3-5 WED-FRI BEFORE
LEANING ON THE 00Z GFS NEXT WEEKEND...ALBEIT WITH LESS PRONOUNCED
EAST COAST/WRN ATLANTIC CYCLOGENSIS CONSIDERING UNCERTAIN SUPPORT
ALOFT.

[tireman4]

For Wednesday, when is the bulk of this happening? I have a court appointment at 12:30 pm that is mandatory. Just wondering.

[wxman57]

For Wednesday, when is the bulk of this happening? I have a court appointment at 12:30 pm that is mandatory. Just wondering.

Latest guidance is suggesting peak rainfall between 9am and 3pm Wednesday. I'd expect the possibility of heavy rain around 12:30.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z OP GFS is running and by hour 72, the GFS suggests a closed upper low develops in W Texas with heavy rains/storms developing in Central Texas. The GFS also suggests an area of low pressure nearing Brownsville that will be the trigger for the potential heavy rain fall we are expecting.

[srainhoutx]

By mid day Wednesday, the GFS suggests the Coastal low near Corpus and the closed core U/L remains stationary in W TX. The 300mb jet streak suggests strong dynamics and a possible meso nearing SE TX...

[srainhoutx]

By early Friday morning, the GFS suggests the U/L will be very near/over SE TX/W Louisiana...

[srainhoutx]

The GFS is suggesting some possible 5+ inch amounts of rain in a 6-12 hour period during the day on Wednesday. Flood potential will need to be monitored if the GFS is correct...

[tireman4]

For Wednesday, when is the bulk of this happening? I have a court appointment at 12:30 pm that is mandatory. Just wondering.

Latest guidance is suggesting peak rainfall between 9am and 3pm Wednesday. I'd expect the possibility of heavy rain around 12:30.

Lovely. We are going to leave at 11 am just to make sure we get downtown. I surely hope it does not flood. Sigh.

[srainhoutx]

A quick glance at the long range GFS suggests we will do it all again near February 2nd, +/- a couple of days as the Pacific remains very active...cold air is also lurking right behind that system, if the GFS is correct...

01222012 12Z GFS gfs_namer_324_500_vort_ht.gif

01222012 12Z GFS gfs_namer_300_10m_wnd_precip.gif

01222012 12Z GFS gfs_namer_384_10m_wnd_precip.gif

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z Canadian is in better agreement today with the GFS suggesting a slow moving U/L and Coastal low with copious rains/storms across the Lone Star State...

[jasons2k]

This is so exciting - finally a real good old fashioned dumping for everyone. While I don't wish any flooding on anyone, we sure do need the rain to fill-up the lakes. It's just nice to see things working more in our favor with these systems instead of being left high-and-dry like last year. If this keeps up, maybe we can have an active spring storm season too for a change

While I love the warm weather, I do hope the early Feb system can pull down *some* cold air and drop some snow up in NM. I need snow in the mountains in Feb

[srainhoutx]

Impressive rain totals via the 12Z GFS ensembles...

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z Euro slowed its progression E with the upper low and is now in better agreement with the GFS/UKMET solutions...

[srainhoutx]

Looking ahead via the longer range Euro, a trough develops in the Plains with a couple of upper air features in the northern and southern stream trekking E. Winter RECON C-130 has been tasked for the N Pacific out of Alaska to take a 'look see' and drop 17 sondes for that wave as it passes S of Alaska...

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0115 PM EST SUN 22 JANUARY 2012
SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
VALID 23/1100Z TO 24/1100Z JANUARY 2012
WSPOD NUMBER.....11-053

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71
A. P55/ DROP 9 (45.0N 157.0W)/ 24/0000Z
B. AFXXX 05WSC TRACK55
C. 23/1915Z
D. 17 DROPS AS PUBLISHED ON TRACK
E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 24/0600Z
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.

[srainhoutx]

It sure is windy out there today. Obs across the Panhandle are showing gusts to near 50mph with blowing dust...

[Portastorm]

... and that is a conservative estimate, Steve. I've been reading reports of gusts up to 70 mph and some minor building damage in and near the Caprock area. There's also some great (well, "great" if you like dust storms) photos on Facebook (see "Texas Storm Chasers") from the area.

Who says Texas doesn't have diversity in its weather -- Lubbock in the next 5 days has a dust storm, thunderstorms, and snow on tap.

[weatherguy425]

Yep! Gusted to 56 on campus. I went around town and saw a decent amount of tree damage along with some sign and minor roof damage. These wild weather swings have my immune system throwing fits!

[srainhoutx]

... and that is a conservative estimate, Steve. I've been reading reports of gusts up to 70 mph and some minor building damage in and near the Caprock area. There's also some great (well, "great" if you like dust storms) photos on Facebook (see "Texas Storm Chasers") from the area.

Who says Texas doesn't have diversity in its weather -- Lubbock in the next 5 days has a dust storm, thunderstorms, and snow on tap.

Not surprised one bit. I see the FAA has a ground stop for inbound flights into DFW now due to gusty W cross winds.

[jasons2k]

Who says Texas doesn't have diversity in its weather -- Lubbock in the next 5 days has a dust storm, thunderstorms, and snow on tap.

I saw this happen out there one day in a span of 24 hours. It was April 10, 1997 - a tornado outbreak on the south plains, 70's in the afternoon and by 1AM it was snowing outside! It hailed at my house 4X from 4 separate supercells that day. One time it hailed nickel-sized for over 10 minutes. At one point I was still in the 70's while it was snowing in Amarillo.

Link: http://tornado.sfsu.edu/geosciences/sto ... ase82.html

Found this excerpt too - it was pretty crazy:

http://bangladeshtornadoes.org/mytornad ... hases.html

Apr 10 1997

After making a forecast in the national forecast contest in the morning, I drove to the Texas Panhandle and witnessed several storms. We initially watched a storm develop near Hereford and then saw hail on the ground around Hart. I saw a brief tornado with this storm but by the time I took video it was gone. Later we found another storm and watched it intensify for awhile. One storm near Kress produced 2 persistent funnels. Dave Hodges and I watched these funnels for a few minutes. These may have been in contact with the ground. A tornado downed trees west of Plainview and this may have been from the same storm.

Further south, severe weather broke out across the South Plains of West Texas during the afternoon and evening of the 10th. A band of storms moved across the area bringing large hail to many counties. Ahead of the band, however, an isolated tornadic supercell moved from Lynn County northeast across Crosby and Dickens Counties. One of its tornadoes struck a lone, double-wide mobile home about one-half mile west of White River Lake (or about 6 miles NNE of Kalgary) in Crosby County, killing one 78 year-old male and injuring a 73 year-old female. The couple was preparing to leave for shelter just as the tornado struck. It totally demolished the structure and damaged a vehicle. This same cell had caused tornadoes in southern and eastern Lynn County earlier (as reported by chasers and spotters), and proceeded to cause other tornadoes in Dickens and eastern Crosby Counties (as reported by spotters and local law enforcement). Near Afton (Dickens Co.), a trailer was damaged, the roof of a cotton gin was ripped off, and a chimney collapsed due to a tornado. A tornado was reported approximately 2 miles to the northwest of Canyon Valley around 9 pm. A residence was completely destroyed and was located 1/2 mile north of County Road 238. The tornado is reportedly separate from the White River Lake tornado described above. Debris from the home was scattered up to 6 miles from the residence and cedar trees where uprooted and large sandstone rocks were moved. The debris path was reported to be an estimated 1/2 mile wide with utility poles snapped and carried four to five hundred yards south of the house. A very heavy and anchored deer stand was blown over and damaged 1/2 mile north of the house.

An arctic cold front moved through Lubbock before midnight which I forecasted. The models were way off with the positioning of the front. My forecast low of 31F was 20F degrees below MOS guidance. The low as of midnight was 32F.